Bitcoin, Bonds, and the Rising Influence of Japan’s Yield Curve

Weston Nakamura founder of Across The Spread, a global markets analyst known for his macro insights through an Asia lens, highlights a surprising and increasingly critical macro relationship.

According to Nakamura, Bitcoin BTC appears to be tracking long-end Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields specifically the 30-year more closely than its traditional correlation with U.S. equities like the Nasdaq 100.

As BTC’s price diverges from risk assets, its movements have begun aligning with surging JGB yields, both reaching record highs in recent months.

Nakamura notes key moments in 2024 such as the launch of U.S.-listed spot BTC ETFs and Trump’s re-election where BTC experienced brief, narrative-driven price bursts, only to eventually revert to a path consistent with long-end JGB yield movements.

He argues this alignment is not simply a second-order effect of U.S. Treasury (UST) yields but a direct consequence of Japan’s unique market dynamics. Reinforcing this view, Nakamura references a recent clip of U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent, who asserts that UST yields are not being driven by domestic political dysfunction, but by global forces explicitly citing Japan.

This raises the provocative idea that if U.S. policy is being shaped around the 10Y Treasury yield, and that yield is in turn being influenced by Japanese bond markets, then Japan may be indirectly guiding U.S. macro policy.

Nakamura suggests JGBs are now at the center of the global financial system, influencing everything from crypto to equities, FX, and gold. In the meantime, he urges investors regardless of asset class to watch Japan closely, as its long-overlooked bond market could be exerting outsized influence on cross-asset behavior worldwide.