#OctoberRateHikeOdds
About OctoberRateHikeOdds
US August PCE data is due at 8:30 am ET on Sept 30, becoming a key test for October rate expectations. CME FedWatch pricing for another 25bp hike reportedly neared 70% before falling to around 50%. Fed officials remain wary of inflation but differ on timing: Governor Barr sees rising risks, while NY Fed President Williams says policymakers can wait for more data after September’s hike. Can PCE confirm further disinflation before Sept payrolls data on Oct 2?
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OctoberRateHikeOdds المنشورات الشائعة
MACRO BRIEF: THE PCE PIVOT
Cooler core PCE (3.0% vs 3.3% est.) just shifted the narrative. Rate hike odds for October are now below 50%.
The market reacted instantly:
• $BTC surged back above $85K.
• $ETH reclaimed $2,700.
• Total market cap back to $2.96T.
The path of least resistance now looks higher. Watching for a daily close above these levels.
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #MicronEarningsAhead
#BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh
Hashmeta_x
Morgan Stanley: $BTC BTC is mirroring gold in the 1970s.
$Gold corrected hard, then broke out to new highs.
Bitcoin looks like it’s on the same path.
If this continues, the real breakout could still be ahead.
$BTC #BTCETF7DayInflows3B
📊 Fed Rate Watch: October Expectations Shift Watch: October Expectations Shift
October hike odds have dropped from ~71% to 43%.
▪️ 43% chance of a 25 bps hike
▪️ 57% chance of no hike
▪️ Implied expected increase: ~0.11 percentage points
For crypto, the next move depends on inflation data, Fed signals, and liquidity.
Expectations are shifting — confirmation matters more than speculation.
#BTC #CryptoMarket #FedRates #OctoberRateHikeOdds #OKXOrbit
DYOR. NFA.
Tonight's PCE release will directly determine BTC's short-term direction #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
Many newcomers in the crypto space only focus on K-line charts to find buy and sell points, but they overlook the macro forces brought by the Federal Reserve's inflation data.
At 20:30 tonight, the highly anticipated August PCE inflation data will be released. This is the inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve. The market currently expects the core PCE to remain at 3.3%,
🔥 October Rate-Hike Bets Are Cooling — Tonight’s PCE Is the Key! 👀
Think of PCE as a guide, not a decision-maker—it can shift rate expectations, but it doesn’t determine the Fed’s move by itself.
📊 Cooler PCE: rate-hike expectations may fade → BTC could test $85K+ 🚀
📉 Hotter PCE: pressure could return → BTC watches $83K → $82K → $81K.
🎯 PCE = the macro catalyst. BTC = the reaction.
$BTC $ZEC
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #BTC #ZEC #Crypto #Fed#OctoberRateHikeOdds
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek Two reports could set the tone for everything this week 👀
PCE lands first, then payrolls. Hot inflation plus strong jobs keeps the Fed's hiking path alive. Softer data gives markets room to breathe.
What caught my attention is the risk of a split signal. Sticky inflation with weaker hiring would put the Fed in a tough spot.
With yields already high, that tension could quickly spill into stocks, gold and BTC.
Tonight’s market direction hinges on 8:30 Core PCE.
If PCE rises to 0.4%, October rate-hike expectations could heat up, putting more pressure on ETH’s floor.
Meanwhile, Micron earnings are tonight—I’m bullish ahead of the report.
#CorePCE #Ethereum #Micron #OctoberRateHike
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #MicronEarningsAhead #US30YYieldBreaks5.6%
📊October Fed Hike Odds
43% hike→ 57% no hike
25 bps= 0.25% possible increase
Expected rate impact:
43% × 0.25% = 0.1075%
So the market is pricing roughly0.11 percentage-point expected increasefrom the October meeting.
The hike odds fell from~71% → ~43%, a28 percentage-point dropor about39% relative decline. (marketwatch.com)
#OctoberRateHikeOdds
Everyone sees 👇
Rate hike Up = $BTC bearish.
But I think it’s more complicated.
If October hike odds rise BUT $BTC refuses to break lower, that could tell us sellers are already priced in.
what has happened in September
Fed expectations up + yields up + $BTC still holding = interesting strength.
Sometimes the reaction matters more than the headline.
Agree or disagree? 👇
#OctoberRateHikeOdds