#BTCOptionsExpiryTest

The options settlement is now behind us, but $BTC still failed to reclaim the $80K level. As the 4 PM deadline passed, Bitcoin remained around $79,417, while $ETH hovered near $2,490. I initially expected the settlement to provide a clear directional move, but instead, it seems to have reinforced the current range. That actually makes me more hesitant to short. The absence of strong downside momentum after settlement suggests lower-level support remains solid #WalshPolicyFramework

Bitcoin hovers around $78,000, with market panic driven more by the drop from $81,250 than by any substantial trend reversal. In my view, this is more like a natural rotation after a sharp rise; the weekly level has just stabilized above $80,000, and funds have not exited. Last week, spot ETF net inflows exceeded $2.2 billion, maintaining positive inflows for seven consecutive days, indicating clear #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

$BTC is sitting around $79,800. $ETH is sitting around $2,500. That’s the whole tape this morning. Two round numbers. Neither side wants to blink first. 80k is not holding clean. 2,500 is not holding clean. Volume is there, conviction is not. Bulls don’t want to buy the break. Bears don’t want to short the obvious support. So price just hovers and waits for someone else to make the mistake. What makes today different is not the chart. It’s the calendar. Roughly $6.4B in Bitcoin options expire today. Ethereum has another ~$960M stacked on top. On paper, calls outnumber puts. That reads bullish if you stop at the headline. On a big expiry, that headline is often bait. Dealers hedge. Stops sit just above and just below the round numbers. The easiest trade for the market is not “go up because calls exist.” It’s pump first, sweep both sides, then decide. Then comes the real event: Warsh at Jackson Hole. This is the speech people will use to justify the next 24 hours. If he sounds hawkish, BTC can slide back toward $79,000 and ETH looks at $2,470 first. If he sounds dovish, BTC can retake $80,000, ETH reclaims $2,500, and $2,550 comes back on the table. I’m not afraid of a clean hawkish print. That’s simple. You know the direction. You know where the liquidity is. You can wait for the wick and work the bounce or the continuation. What I don’t like is the mixed message. Give bulls one green candle. Let Twitter start calling the breakout. Let late longs chase $80k and $2,520. Then rip it back through the range and take both sides. That’s the setup that hurts the most not because the thesis is wrong, but because people enter on hope instead of after the first wave. So my plan is boring on purpose. No chase before the speech. No hero trade into expiry noise. Wait for the first spike. See which level actually breaks and holds. Then act. If they want to clear longs first, ETH usually shows it earlier. It lags on the way up and leads on the way down. If they want to squeeze shorts, BTC has to reclaim $80k and stay there, not just tag it.

There’s one key BTC time point I’m watching closely today: 4 PM. ⏰ Around $6.4 billion in BTC options are set to expire at the same time. That’s a massive amount of positioning coming off the table and could bring some serious volatility. But there’s one thing I used to misunderstand about options expiry: #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #IranOpensHormuzLane

🚨 TWO BIG TESTS FOR $BTC TODAY $6.4B in BTC options are set to expire, while Warsh takes the stage at Jackson Hole. At the same time, Bitcoin is hovering near the critical $80K level. If $BTC can absorb the volatility from both events and still hold its ground, the market may be showing genuine demand—not just short-term positioning. The next 24 hours could reveal whether this rally has real conviction behind it. 👀📈 #BTC #Bitcoin #JacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiry #WalshPolicyFramework

$BTC — $6.4B in options settled today, but BTC held firm. Price rejected $81.5K and slipped toward $80K, showing heavy resistance around $81.2K–$81.5K. Despite max pain near $68K–$70K, $BTC never approached it—proof max pain isn’t a guaranteed target. Now the focus shifts to 22:00 tonight: Wash’s Jackson Hole speech. Hawkish = possible break below $79K, with $78K/$76.8K as key supports. Dovish = reclaim $80K and retest $81.5K.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

Options Settlement at 16:00 Isn’t About the Exact $80K Price! Brothers, don’t assume today’s 16:00 options expiry depends on whether BTC is exactly at $80,000 at that moment. The settlement price isn’t simply the K-line price at 16:00. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

$BTC $80K. Now What? After three long months, Bitcoin has finally kissed $80,000 again. ETFs have been on a buying spree — eight straight days, $2.6 billion poured in. Trump's pushing crypto legislation. The usual story: when the U.S. moves, the price follows. But don't pop the champagne just yet. Between $80K and $82K sits a mountain of supply — bag holders waiting to break even and bail. Add to that $6.4 billion in options expiring today

There’s one key BTC time point I’m watching closely today: 4 PM. ⏰ Around $6.4 billion in BTC options are set to expire at the same time. That’s a massive amount of positioning coming off the table and could bring some serious volatility. But there’s one thing I used to misunderstand about options expiry: #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #IranOpensHormuzLane

#BTC surges and then retreats, options expiration amplifies the battle at key levels 6.4 billion options expire this afternoon, with 80,000 being the battleground for longs and shorts. At 4 PM today, 81,700 Bitcoin options on Deribit expired, with a notional value of $6.44 billion. 44,639 call options, 37,061 put options. Put/call ratio 0.83, overall bullish. Maximum pain point at $68,000—the price level where option sellers most hope the price will land. But now the spot price is around 79,000. That's a difference of $11,000. The strike prices of 75,000 and 80,000 are heavily populated with call options. The notional value of options within 5% of the spot price exceeds $500 million. People with orders in hand should be keeping an eye on this number this afternoon. On the other hand, $ETH options expired on the same day with a notional value of approximately $961 million. The maximum pain point was at $2,200, but the spot price was around $2,490, deviating by about $300. $BTC deviates from $11,000, while ETH deviates by about $300. The one with the greater deviation faces more pressure. Coincidentally, Wash is set to deliver his first keynote speech tonight in Jackson Hole. The expiration of options and the Federal Reserve Chair's speech coinciding on the same day introduced too many variables. Can BTC hold above $80,000 this afternoon? Can ETH maintain $2,400? The clarity of how inflation, employment, and financial conditions influence policy is more important than hawkish or dovish labels. A vague framework could lead to repeated market repricing of the Fed-Treasury long-term yield curve, increasing volatility in the dollar, Treasury bonds, gold, and BTC. This is not a recommendation, but merely an analysis.$BTC $ETH