Summary Recently, the global financial market is simultaneously trading three seemingly independent issues: the Middle East situation driving crude oil price fluctuations; Japanese exchange rate pressure forcing policymakers to refocus on yen stability; global investors beginning to reassess dollar liquidity and the risk asset environment. On the surface, these three issues belong respectively to the energy market, foreign exchange market, and capital market. But from the perspective of the global macro system, they are actually on the same transmission chain. The price change of a barrel of oil first affects global energy costs; energy costs then impact energy-importing countries like Japan; as a major global financing market, Japan's exchange rate changes further affect global funding costs and risk appetite. Therefore, what the current market truly needs to study is not simply the rise in oil prices, nor just the depreciation of the yen, but: how the energy shock ultimately affects asset prices through the global financial system. Around August 10, uncertainty re-emerged regarding the prospects of US-Iran negotiations, causing the market to reprice the risk of the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices rose rapidly. Brent crude once approached $88 per barrel, WTI near $82 per barrel, with market concerns shifting from short-term supply issues to the long-term stability of energy transportation. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY returned to a high level, and the market again focused on whether Japan needs to take further measures to stabilize the exchange rate. Previously, the US and Japan had conducted a rare joint currency intervention, which is also a rare direct exchange rate coordination action among major global economies in recent years. If we consider these matters
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