Post

V4投研
V4投研
Show original
一桶石油的价格变化,首先影响的是全球能源成本;能源成本又影响日本这样的能源进口国;日本作为全球重要融资市场,其汇率变化进一步影响全球资金成本和风险偏好。 能源冲击,什么时候会从商品市场传导到全球资产负债表? 这篇文章我试着把这条链完整拆开: $BTC $BZ #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果,美伊施压升级 #7月CPI平稳落地,9月加息预期降温
V4投研
V4投研
How a barrel of oil leverages global assets
Summary Recently, the global financial market is simultaneously trading three seemingly independent issues: the Middle East situation driving crude oil price fluctuations; Japanese exchange rate pressure forcing policymakers to refocus on yen stability; global investors beginning to reassess dollar liquidity and the risk asset environment. On the surface, these three issues belong respectively to the energy market, foreign exchange market, and capital market. But from the perspective of the global macro system, they are actually on the same transmission chain. The price change of a barrel of oil first affects global energy costs; energy costs then impact energy-importing countries like Japan; as a major global financing market, Japan's exchange rate changes further affect global funding costs and risk appetite. Therefore, what the current market truly needs to study is not simply the rise in oil prices, nor just the depreciation of the yen, but: how the energy shock ultimately affects asset prices through the global financial system. Around August 10, uncertainty re-emerged regarding the prospects of US-Iran negotiations, causing the market to reprice the risk of the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices rose rapidly. Brent crude once approached $88 per barrel, WTI near $82 per barrel, with market concerns shifting from short-term supply issues to the long-term stability of energy transportation. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY returned to a high level, and the market again focused on whether Japan needs to take further measures to stabilize the exchange rate. Previously, the US and Japan had conducted a rare joint currency intervention, which is also a rare direct exchange rate coordination action among major global economies in recent years. If we consider these matters

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!