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Nearly $2.4B flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week — the strongest weekly inflow in almost a year. Even more interesting:
• BTC ETFs: ~$2.4B inflows
• ETH ETFs: ~$690M
• SOL: ~$188M The important part isn't just the size of the numbers. It's the type of money. Retail-driven pumps can move fast and disappear just as quickly. ETF buying is different: it represents continued demand through regulated investment channels rather than leverage or perpetual-futures funding. But here's the key queBTC is stuck around the 83,000 mark, with intraday volatility as thin as paper; ETH is dozing around 2,600, and short-term traders are too lazy to watch. Platform tokens are even more straightforward—when the market doesn't move, they don't even bother to flip the script.
But beneath the ETF channel, there’s a silent undercurrent: funds have been flowing in net for several consecutive days, like stacking sandbags in a corner—quietly, but steadily thickening the base. What about retail investors? They’re fixated on geopolitical news and options expiration dates, hands hovering over the keyboard, hesitating to act.
The market is thus twisted: there’s support below, but no chase above; volume contracts, yet contract open interest quietly climbs. Both bulls and bears are enduring, waiting for the other to blink first, waiting for a volume breakout candle to tear open the gap.
Don’t be fooled by low volatility. The quieter the pond, the more likely it hides a swift current. Once the direction is chosen, the catch-up rally or sell-off won’t be gentle.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC Double-edged liquidity: 86K and 82K become short-term trigger points
Bitcoin leverage is accumulating at both ends. Near the upper 86,000 USD level, about $843 million in short positions face liquidation risk; near the lower 82,000 USD level, about $843 million in long positions are also under pressure. The symmetrical amounts mean that once the price hits these levels, it can easily trigger a chain liquidation, but the liquidation zones are merely volatility amplifiers, not inevitable targets.
Capital flow is relatively warm: This week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $2.4 billion, and ETH spot ETFs also attracted nearly $690 million. The incremental funds provide confidence for the bulls but do not mean that leverage won't be swept first in the short term. The key remains at 86K and 82K: a breakout upward requires volume confirmation, while a breakdown downward may trigger long stop losses.
Strategically, don't treat liquidation charts as roadmaps. Wait for volume, structural breakouts, or false breakout recovery signals before deciding on positions. Leave enough buffer for leverage, set clear stop losses, and stay flexible. The most dangerous times in the market are often not when there is no direction, but when both sides think they are safe.
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 PONS: Major Positive News + Massive Burn, Why Does It Still Struggle to Avoid Decline?
Core Summary: Burning is a slow supply contraction (long-term logic), while the coin price in the short term is determined by buying and selling forces; positive news has long been priced in, and the realization of positive news is a window for profit-taking.
1. Positive news has been fully priced in by the market in advance; buying on expectations, selling on facts
80% of PONS protocol revenue is used for buyback and burn, and the tokenized stock RWA narrative were all factored into valuation during the early rally phase.
When daily revenue data and large burn announcements are officially released, they no longer come as surprises beyond market expectations.
- Early low-entry investors wait for positive news to attract bullish capital to take over, using the opportunity to sell and realize profits.
- Simply repeating “high burn, high revenue” cannot bring incremental funds, only triggers old capital to cash out.
2. The biggest pain point is the chip structure: almost fully circulating, huge profit-taking selling pressure
Almost the entire supply of PONS is circulating with no large lock-up buffer. Early chip costs were extremely low, with substantial unrealized gains:
1. Whenever the price slightly rallies on positive news, whales and early investors continuously sell;
2. Burning is a passive, gradual deflation; the speed of burning chips cannot keep up with the speed of whales selling chips;
Burning can only slowly reduce long-term supply, and cannot immediately offset short-term large sell pressure.
3. Revenue foundation highly depends on Meme hype; RWA is still a long-term story
1. Currently, the vast majority of platform fee income comes from Meme coin issuance and trading. Meme market cycles are strong; once the sector cools down, platform fees will quickly decline, and buyback and burn funds will shrink accordingly.
2. Tokenized stock RWA currently contributes almost no revenue and is a future narrative. The market will not sustain high valuations for distant stories.
Simply put: burn data looks good, but the underlying cash flow foundation is unstable.
4. Small-cap coin attributes, weak risk resistance, easily suppressed by the overall market environment
PONS is a small-cap coin with limited capital capacity.
Even if the project itself has positive news, if the overall crypto market risk appetite declines, capital will prioritize withdrawing from small-cap targets.
During market pullbacks, small-cap coins often fall much more than large-cap leaders like BTC and UNI; single project positives struggle to counteract overall market capital outflows.
5. Distinguish two things: fundamental value ≠ short-term coin price
- Fundamentals: buyback and burn, protocol revenue, RWA layout determine the long-term value ceiling;
- Short-term market: determined by chip structure, whale behavior, incremental capital, and market sentiment.
Therefore, it is possible for fundamental data to continuously improve while the coin price keeps weakening. Fundamentals represent the long-term logic, while the candlestick chart reflects the short-term result of capital competition.HYPE 93, BICO 0.019, BEAT 0.10, RE 0.47, which small coins are moving?
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
Early Monday, the market was weak. Let me talk about the four oversold small coins one by one.
$HYPE around 92.96, up 1.2% in 24h, 97% protocol revenue buyback supports it, 90 is the lifeline, the strongest bottom, the anchor.
$BICO around 0.019, up 2.3% in 24h, account abstraction AA core, weakly consolidating at the bottom, 0.018 is support; if it breaks 0.018, stop loss and follow the repair.
$BEAT around 0.0996, up 4.5% in 24h, oversold micro market, thin liquidity, reduce immediately on impulse, 0.10 is resistance, don’t catch the falling knife.
$RE around 0.471, up 3.9% in 24h, RWA small coin recovering to resistance at 0.48, 0.45 is support.
HYPE 93 supports the bottom, BICO 0.019 and RE 0.47 follow, BEAT 0.10 up 4.5% on impulse, all small coins are rebounding from oversold conditions. Don’t chase if resistance is not broken; reduce BEAT immediately on impulse.Starlink | Key Focus This Week: No Gambling on Monday, Wait for the Trend
This week, I'm not in a hurry to judge which way BTC will ultimately go.
First, let's see how the news and macro variables unfold.
What the market really needs to focus on now is not the daily swings of several hundred points, but the following key factors:
1. Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens
This is the most direct variable affecting oil prices and geopolitical risk.
2. Whether there is substantive progress in US-Iran negotiations
Not just "preparing to talk," but whether concrete conditions have truly been established.
3. Whether oil prices can continue to decline
Oil prices are the bridge connecting the US-Iran situation and US inflation.
4. The next batch of US inflation and employment data
These data will affect the market's repricing of the Fed's subsequent policies.
5. The 10-year US Treasury yield
If yields remain high, the pressure on risk assets will be hard to completely dissipate.
6. Whether BTC can truly break through the 83100–85200 consolidation range.
The first five are macro factors,
The last one is the answer given by the market.
So the approach this week is simple:
If the news hasn't landed, trade the range;
If the structure hasn't broken, trade the position;
Only after a real breakout, trade the trend.
Especially on Monday, first watch how the news unfolds, as the current situation is prone to fluctuations. Only after the news settles will there be a true big direction $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 Altcoin season hasn't arrived yet, but rotation has already started?😠😠
BTC hasn't experienced a deep pullback, yet ETH has begun to recover first, with SOL, SUI, and OKB heating up alternately. The market is not broadly rising; rather, funds are rapidly switching between strong narratives.
Three key points to watch:
1️⃣ Can BTC digest selling pressure through sideways movement instead of breaking down?
2️⃣ Can ETH spread its local strength to resonate across the sector?
3️⃣ Will incremental funds cluster around the leaders or spread to second- and third-tier coins?
If the first two hold true and volume expands simultaneously, altcoin season may sprout from a structural market; if only a few coins surge without volume follow-through, the rebound may still become a window for reducing positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $SUI $OKB
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
(This does not constitute investment advice)Bitcoin is holding near $84,702, up 4.29% over the past 7 days. The next move could test how strong this recovery really is. 📊 What stands out: * Hyperliquid: $1.091B in perp volume vs. $22M spot — nearly 49x the imbalance. * ETF flows: Friday saw $134.5M in net inflows after $504.6M in cumulative outflows since May 1. * Options bias: +30, with $82K as a key price magnet and $88K as the upside target. 🔥 My take: If ETF demand returns and BTC holds above $84K, short covering could fuel a move t#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
Brothers, something big has happened with U.S. Treasuries, possibly more important than the K-line charts we watch every day.
The multi-year inversion of the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has finally completely ended. Long-term yields are soaring, and the yield curve is steepening sharply. In plain terms: global big money no longer trusts the long-term purchasing power of the dollar, so lending to the U.S. for 10 years requires a higher risk premium. This is not a small matter; it is the deepest sign of cracks in trust toward the paper currency empire.
More importantly, there is a second layer of logic. The Wall Street "60% stocks + 40% bonds" safety model has now completely failed. Treasury prices keep hitting new lows, and traditional safe-haven funds must find new uncorrelated, hard assets to fill their positions. After searching around, $BTC has become that option. Its code rules are transparent, there is zero counterparty risk, and the worse sovereign credit gets, the more it stands out.
So this time is different from before. It’s not just the crypto community calling a bull market; big money outside is reallocating. Independent pricing power is shifting toward $BTC. I’m still holding my base position, bought around 75,000, trailing my stop profits, not rushing to add. Once the big market fully digests this macro narrative, the direction will be clearer. What do you think—can this crack in U.S. Treasuries force funds into crypto?
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BTC 🔥
BTC sets the rhythm. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta demand.
If activity fails to follow price, the structure becomes less convincing.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC strengthen Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC weaken Divergence#USTYieldsPressure #TokenizedStocksOnAave Friday night, a worker who got counterattacked by crude oil shorts.🤡
Recently, Federal Reserve officials have been hawkish one after another, pushing US Treasury yields higher and raising funding costs. Crude oil, a commodity influenced by both macro and geopolitical factors, is indeed wildly volatile.🌞
——————
Last night I still felt confident:
$AAVE long position, entered at 138.55, exited at 00:50, +15.84%, earned $10.36;
$ZEC long position, closed at 23:42, +2.88%, earned $0.52.
Almost $11 total, turned off the lights and went to sleep, dreaming of extra chicken legs.
This morning when I opened my eyes:
$CL crude oil short at 90.9, brutally pulled up to 93.94.
Unrealized loss -33.44%, lost $9.72.😭
The hard-earned money from staying up late watching the market all went to fill the crude oil pit. Truly "trading fierce as a tiger, returns stuck in place."
——————
💡 Trading insight:
Why does this always happen?
Quickly take profits on altcoins, but stubbornly hold a 33% loss on crude oil shorts.
Frankly, it’s just wishful thinking, always feeling "it’s risen so much, it should pull back," only to be crushed by a one-sided market.
Shorting commodities in unclear macro conditions is really risky.
💬 It’s Friday, I wanted to have a good weekend.
This -33% crude oil short, should I cut losses today or hold on waiting for a pullback?
Advice welcome in the comments.👇
#原油CL #AAVE #ZEC #欧易 #交易心得 #加密货币
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ $CORE $CORE Why do ordinary retail investors treat the token as a “mentor"?
Sunk cost hostage: Retail investors have already invested money at positions of 5U, 4U, 3U, 2U, 1U, and they cannot accept the fact that they have lost 99.9%.
At this point, as long as someone tells them "it will rise back," they will cling to these "mentors'" words like a lifeline, refusing to believe the truth.
Cognitive defense mechanism: Admitting that they were scammed means admitting that their faith, time, and money invested over the past few years have all become a joke, which is a devastating blow to a person's self-esteem.
Therefore, they would rather believe the "mentors" saying "the project is still progressing" than look down at the abyss beneath their feet. The market never lacks stories; what it lacks is memory.
$LAB's recent comeback is like a veteran suiting up again—its former momentum hasn't faded; instead, it precisely counterattacks when the bears are at their strongest. Those who got off early can now only watch the candlesticks in silence. But the same question remains: why can't $CORE learn? The 60-day moving average has been broken through 11 times, each time seeming ready to rise, yet each time falling just short of holding steady. Even Xiao Ku can't stand it anymore, and that's no lie.
Ultimately, not every coin has the resilience of $LAB to "get back up after being knocked down." Some projects' breakouts are a buildup of strength, while others are just struggles. Standing above the 60-day moving average 11 times but failing to hold it indicates that selling pressure hasn't been fully absorbed, or no one genuinely wants to push it up.
Looking at the broader market: BTC spot ETFs have seen nearly $3 billion in net inflows over seven consecutive days, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, increasing financing pressure. Capital is repeatedly jumping between crypto and traditional markets. With the MicroVision earnings report approaching, AI storage demand is becoming a focal point—hot money has destinations, but they aren't necessarily the saviors of every altcoin.
$BICO, even Xiao Ku can't stand it, and the market is running out of patience. What truly "crushes the bears" has never been sentiment but chips and consensus. $LAB understands this; $CORE does not yet.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $BTC - Higher Lows
The shift in sentiment is becoming more apparent:
Altcoins are surging, greed is returning, and conviction is being rebuilt.
My current argument reflects a corrective move downward to form higher lows.
If anything, the greed sentiment in altcoins can create a crowded position/sentiment backdrop, which is exactly the kind of environment that allows the corrective move to be larger than people expect.
-> I can see the same situation in the comments, where conviction turns into certainty
The key points of my original post still hold:
Higher lows don’t have to be shallow.
The market can remain structurally bullish on a larger scale, while the correction magnitude may still far exceed the current consensus expectations.
So I still take the downside levels from the previous post seriously.
Not because I’m bearish on the overall structure—but because sentiment + positioning can easily overextend before higher lows truly form.
Thanks to @FurkanCCTV—his post triggered this follow-up from me."Dogecoin, wait for the next pullback"
$BTC has lacked direction these past two days, with wide fluctuations disrupting the rhythm; altcoins have been trying to rise one after another, with $DOGE among them. I hesitated at 0.091, afraid of chasing a high; later, seeing it stabilize, I followed in at 0.097 and made a small profit. Now it feels more like a tug-of-war up and down, so I chose to withdraw first, willing to re-enter if it falls back again.
I can't say I'm obsessed with $DOGE, but I have an inexplicable fondness for it.
The macro environment is still chaotic: after Bitcoin's pullback, there's no decent rebound; oil prices, Trump's Taco, and US Treasury yields haven't given any signals yet. The wind hasn't come; the market will likely continue to grind. Let's wait, wait for the wind, and also wait for Dogecoin to give another chance to get on board.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 BTC has a "institutional cost line" that is worth paying close attention to.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)
Holds about 846,000 BTC
Comprehensive average cost is about $75,416/BTC
US spot BTC ETFs
Hold a total of about 1.29 million BTC, but ETFs do not have an official unified "average purchase price": different ETF launch times, capital flows, and GBTC historical holdings vary greatly.
Among them, the largest BlackRock IBIT's historical capital flow cost has already entered the $75K+ range, very close to Strategy's cost center.
This indicates a phenomenon worth observing:
Around $75,000 is becoming an important cost area for large institutional BTC holdings.
If BTC returns to this range, it is not just a matter of technical support, but also means a large amount of Strategy and ETF-related funds are near their cost zones.
When looking at BTC now, besides price and daily ETF inflows, one should also keep an eye on one more line:
The institutional average cost line.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #IBIT #Strategy #MSTRMany people are still asking about $CORE
Whether $CORE can still rise
But I think a more worthwhile question is
When the next round of BTCFi truly explodes
Can CORE become one of the value capture beneficiaries
The current logic of Core is no longer just
Building a Bitcoin ecosystem chain
But moving in one direction
$BTC generates revenue
The ecosystem generates income
Income drives CORE buybacks
Plus BTC Staking
LST
BTCFi
Neobank
RWA and other applications continue to be implemented
If this flywheel really starts running
The valuation logic of CORE will also change
In the past, people might have viewed it as
A public chain valuation
In the future, the market might see it as
Bitcoin financial infrastructure + income + buybacks
Of course
There is still a long way to go
And in early September, Core just completed an emergency hard fork to fix validator reward anomalies
In the short term, the focus is still on whether network stability and user confidence can recover.
But if I were to preemptively put it on a long-term watchlist
CORE still deserves a spot
Not because of whether it rises now
But because I value $BICO more
When the next round of Bitcoin liquidity truly starts seeking yield
Whether CORE can catch that money
That might be the biggest story for CORE in the next phase.
#BTC spot ETF net inflows nearly $3 billion for 7 consecutive days Today, the high Beta assets show clear divergence again: WLD surged from around 0.40 to 0.48, LINK steadily holds near $14, while DOGE is once again capped at 0.10. One is entering an accelerated sentiment phase, one is following a steady trend, and one is still waiting for Meme funds to truly return—three completely different states.
#HighBetaContinuesToDiverge
#RiskOfChasingHighRisesAgain
$WLD is currently about 0.48, with the previous peak having touched around 0.512. The 0.455–0.46 zone is now the first support level; if it holds, we continue to watch 0.50–0.513; only after firmly holding 0.513 can we look toward 0.53–0.55. After several days of strong gains, this is no longer a low level.
$LINK is currently about 14.1, with 13.65–13.8 having formed the first support. Resistance is expected at 14.35; only after firmly holding above that can we look at 14.5–14.8. Its advantage now is not the largest gain but the steadily rising lows.
$DOGE is currently about 0.098, with 0.096–0.097 as the first defense, and 0.10 remains the most important psychological level; only after firmly holding above that can we look at 0.104–0.106.
This lineup: don’t chase WLD straight to 0.50, wait for LINK at 14.35, and wait for DOGE at 0.10. The hotter high Beta gets, the more important it is to watch for support after breakouts, not just the gain rankings.In the lively bull party, what I'm watching is that increasingly heavy contract bill. Is ZEC really stable this time? Looking at the derivatives structure of $ZEC, it seems very lively on the surface, but the underlying is a bit subtle. The unrealized profits of the bulls have surged to nearly 150 million U, with a profit-loss ratio skewed to 84% versus 18%, creating an imbalance like a table full of people who are all full but no one leaves. The problem has never been how much it has risen, but who will take these floating profits. On the perpetual side, if the funding rate continues to be positive and the open interest remains high, it can easily turn into a game of who runs first wins. The bull camp looks united, but everyone is actually calculating the same question in their hearts: should I take profits first? As long as a decent position reduction hits, the squeeze chain could ignite, forcing leveraged bulls to liquidate and instead fueling the bears. This is what I think is the most fragile point. But we can't look at only one side. The bullish path also exists: if $ZEC spot support is strong enough, funding rates are moderate, and positions are not extreme, then floating profits can be slowly digested, prices can use sideways movement to gain space, and altcoin sentiment can stabilize accordingly. What really needs attention is the change in open interest and the direction of funding rates, not slogans. My own rhythm is not to chase emotional highs but to wait for signals from the structure. Derivatives have never been oracles; they just amplify human nature. Floating profits that are not realized are just paper fireworks. This does not constitute any trading advice. $ZEC #ZEC #derivativesCrypto Divergence Amid the US Treasury Storm: BTC and ETH Under Pressure, $ZEC and $SOL Move Against the Trend
The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.223%, hitting interest-free assets first. Bitcoin is currently at $83,924, showing clear short-term pressure; Ethereum dropped to $2,683, structurally fragile, and if it falls below $2,562, the cumulative long position liquidation intensity on major exchanges could reach $944 million, marking a critical zone for the bulls and bears battle.
However, institutions have not exited. Morgan Stanley increased its BTC holdings by 42.9 coins again, with a total position of 9,261 coins, valued at about $779 million, indicating their recognition of the current price level.
Meanwhile, ZEC and SOL are quietly rising against the trend. ZEC is at $1,534, slightly down 0.70%, but a whale scooped up 6,000 coins within 15 minutes, opening a $9.35 million long position at an average price of $1,558.90, betting on the "privacy narrative" and institutional layout. SOL is at $120.61, up 0.39%, with on-chain processing speed exceeding 1,800 TPS, ecosystem use cases continuously growing, currently testing the key $120-$124 range; a breakout would open upward potential.
Macro interest rates suppress the overall market, but funds are migrating from mainstream coins to assets with independent narratives. BTC and ETH are closely watching macro and liquidation risks, while ZEC and SOL quietly build strength through whales and fundamentals. Divergence may be the most authentic footnote of the current crypto market.
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Next 72 Hours
Hyperliquid perp volume $1,091M vs $22M spot. A 48.9x skew
ETF flows flipped +$134.5M Friday after a $504.6M drawdown since May 1
$BTC holding $84,702, 7d +4.29%, options bias +30
Call: $BTC grinds to the $88,000 options target within 72h
Dealers pinned near the $82,000 magnet get squeezed higher as Friday's ETF bid returns Monday, forcing perp shorts to cover into thin spot.$BTC Overall, the plan has played out very nicely. Breaking out from accumulation, consolidating below the previous highs, then expanding into the next target. Aside from 89.2K to 90.6K being a nice LTF area where we could see a rejection, the ideal extension for this leg sits around 92K to 94K. If this is a genuine impulse breakout and we are transitioning into a higher range, I would expect momentum to continue rather than see a new range form here. The market should capitalise on the momentZECUSDT Trend Forecast (Current Price 1586.86)
Overall Conclusion: Leading privacy sector token, driven by dual narratives of ETF + NU7 upgrade, has broken through previous high resistance zone. Short-term short squeeze rally continues, but the risk of a sharp tail rise increases as price goes higher; mid-term positive catalyst realization window is approaching, beware of a pullback after a surge.
Short-term (1~5 trading days)
- Resistance range: 1600~1620 (round number resistance), strong resistance 1650~1680
After breaking previous highs and retesting, as long as BTC holds above 84000 and privacy sector sentiment remains, there is still momentum for further upside; however, contract funding rates continue to rise, leverage longs accumulate, and a single-day 8%~12% correction could occur anytime.
- Support range: 1560~1570 (previous resistance turned support), 1490~1520 (strong support zone)
A break below 1560 with volume decline indicates short-term short squeeze momentum exhaustion and entry into profit-taking phase.
- Trading strategy: Holders should take partial profits in the 1650~1680 range, keeping a small position to speculate on 1700+; lightly buy the rebound if price stabilizes near 1560, never chase highs.
Mid-term (2~4 weeks, until November NU7 upgrade launch)
Key event: NU7 mainnet upgrade (expected November 5), price has largely priced in expectations in advance, typical "buy the expectation" scenario.
1. Optimistic scenario: smooth upgrade + BTC continues bull run, oscillating in a large 1500~1750 range, testing 1750 with repeated profit-taking digestion;
2. Cautious scenario: upgrade benefit realization + market weakness, large-scale profit-taking escape, deep pullback to 1300~1400 range, completing correction of this rally.
Long-term (3~6 months)
Bullish logic
1. Grayscale ZEC spot ETF ongoing, institutional funds provide long-term support, new ETF approvals still have room for imagination;
2. Post-NU7 launch, privacy assets and shielded smart contracts go live, expanding privacy sector application boundaries;
3. Fixed total supply of 21 million, inflation continues to decline post-halving, scarcity logic holds long-term.
Major risks
4. Regulatory risk: privacy coins remain under global regulatory pressure, targeted policies could trigger crashes;
5. Market risk: highly elastic altcoin, BTC mid-term corrections cause larger drops than the market;
6. Narrative exhaustion: ETF and NU7 core positives mostly priced in, lacking major catalysts afterward.
Long-term price range forecast
- Bull market continuation + regulatory friendliness: upper limit $1800~2000;
- Market correction + benefit realization: pullback to $1100~1350 range.
Swing trading reference
- Long liquidation zones (triggered by drop): 1560~1580 (moderate long liquidations); 1490~1520 (large-scale long liquidations); below 1420 excessive long liquidations
- Short liquidation zones (triggered by rise): 1650~1680 (moderate short stop-loss); above 1720 large-scale short liquidations
- Trading principles: avoid heavy positions and holding through losses, focus on swing trading, take profits in batches on rallies, buy in batches on dips; strictly control leverage positions.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Here's some data for those who have been shorting these past two days, explaining why you're feeling frustrated. In the past 24 hours of liquidations, the majority of liquidations were shorts—$BTC short liquidations were more than twice that of longs, and $SOL is even more extreme, with short liquidations nearly two and a half times that of longs. A classic short squeeze.
In plain language: $BTC has been hovering around 84,000 without moving, looking like it might drop, but every time it dips, buyers step in to catch it, wiping out the stop losses of those chasing shorts one after another. In this low-volume sideways market, the price action loves to clear out leverage on both the long and short sides alternately.
This is exactly why I stay flat on perpetual shorts—I have a directional view, but naked shorting in this kind of choppy, stagnant market is like playing with real money against the house. Just because you understand it doesn't mean you have to jump in now. Are you still chasing shorts here? The 4 AM candlestick, and a biological clock reshaped by Bitcoin
At 4 AM, the whole city is asleep, only the candlestick on my screen remains awake. Bitcoin has forcibly twisted my schedule into New York time, turning day and night upside down as the norm.
BTC is currently hovering around 84,000, having touched 87,000 a couple of days ago, but it was slapped down before it could hold. Holiday trading is thin, funds ebb like the tide, and prices are pushed back and forth by small waves. If you hesitate, it crashes down; if you cut losses, it turns back and smiles at you. In this liquidity-dried pond, every fish thinks it's hunting, but in fact, they're all being toyed with by the currents.
Interestingly, the US spot ETF side is bustling, attracting over 2 billion USD in a week, with institutions rushing in like clockwork. The Fed just finished its meeting, rate anxiety is cooling down, and the September curse didn't materialize this year. Is the ETF a tentative entry or the new normal? No one dares to conclude.
The real starting gun is still held by PCE data and rate expectations. As for Trump rejecting the seven-day plan and new uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz—these distant thunderclaps will sooner or later reach this thin market.
When I turn off the screen, dawn is breaking outside. A day in the crypto world often starts at someone else's 4 AM.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
The ETF has seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, totaling nearly $3 billion. Of course, there are also bearish factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have reduced net inflows, which is a significant negative.
Currently, the single-day net inflow has dropped from 999 million to 134 million, shrinking for four consecutive days. If this trend continues, buying momentum will weaken, and the price will lose its most critical support.
From a macro perspective, long-term interest rates remain high, rate hike expectations have not receded, and the opportunity cost of zero-yield assets is too high. Funds are willing to enter BTC because the long-term logic is strong, but short-term prices still depend on Federal Reserve rates.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $SOL is once again the strongest card on the field — four consecutive cycles lined up in a full bullish pattern, still leading with a slight gain in the last 24 hours, leaving $BTC and $ETH behind. The catch-up crowd in the comments is already itching to jump in.
Here’s a cold splash of water: the daily RSI has already touched the overbought zone near 70, while the overall market volume ratio is still lying on the ground at just a few tenths — extremely low volume. Strong + overbought + low volume, these three combined are the most deceptive mix. It’s not that it can’t rise further, but chasing it at this position has a poor risk-reward ratio: to gain those three points, you risk a five-point pullback.
Strong coins can be watched and held, but don’t chase their overbought zone during the low-volume tail end of Sunday trading. The biggest fear when chasing strength is catching the last baton. Would you chase $SOL here? Seeing the Iranian Speaker mock the US on Twitter: "Congratulations on reaching a 5.1% yield on the 10-year Treasury, this is the floor for the next two years, enjoy the nostalgia of the 70s." Harsh words, but he inadvertently hit on something everyone playing risk assets should watch closely — interest rates.
What does a 5% 10-year US Treasury yield mean? It is the anchor for global asset pricing. When the anchor rises, various valuations have to be pushed down, and assets like $BTC that generate no cash flow are the first to be hit. This is also the reason I've remained cautious about risk assets lately — not because of chart patterns, but because of the looming cloud of interest rates overhead.
That said, oil prices have recently cooled off, and dovish officials have started to ease up, letting some light peek through the clouds. So my approach is to keep long positions in spot holdings and avoid naked exposure in contracts. Do you trust the pressure from interest rates more, or do you believe in this cooling trend?BTC liquidity update. Yesterday price was sitting around $84K between two pretty clear liquidity pools. The upper side got attacked first. $BTC ran to $85.15K, right into the area we were watching, before pulling back. But that upper liquidity isn't completely gone. The 24h, 48h and 3-day maps still show a heavy concentration around $85.3K-$85.9K. Zoom out and there's another larger area around $87K-$87.5K. Liquidity around $82.7K-$83.3K is still sitting below too. Yesterday the map looked almosDon't fool me with renderings—I only look at the foundation. $ATH This building has only risen 0.44% in 24 hours, but the short-term RSI has already dropped to 31.1, and the long-term RSI is just hanging at the neutral line of 48.2. This is not a topping celebration; this is a foundation pit inspection.
First, look at the structural grid. In the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price is pressed at -6%, while the lower band is only at -0.1% and the upper band at +1.7%—the working surface left for it is as thin as a layer of leveling mortar. Any slight vibration, and the load-bearing wall will be grounded. The mid-term is a bit better, positioned at 25% of the span, with a clearance of +2.4% from the lower band and the upper band waiting at +7.3% to cap the beam. Putting these two numbers together, my judgment is straightforward: the main structure has no cracks, but temporary supports must be reinforced.
Next, look at the construction schedule. The current price has only 3.5% room downward, which is my entry point—equivalent to digging one more layer below the foundation cushion, waiting for the load-bearing layer to be exposed before pouring, rather than erecting columns directly on backfill soil. Upward, the first beam position is at +5.4%, the second at +7.3%, both within the reasonable span of the mid-term upper band, able to be closed without adding braces. What really needs to be written into the construction handover is this: the -13.2% stop-loss line has already crossed the mid-term lower band. Once broken through, it’s not a repair, it’s a total collapse, and the plan must be redone.
I have done too many projects that died because "the drawings looked good, but the foundation was unstable." This one’s drawings aren’t stunning, but the load-bearing logic holds.
📈 Long:
Entry: 3.5% below current price (-3.5%)
Take Profit 1: 5.4% above entry (+5.4%)
Take Profit 2: 7.3% above entry (+7.3%)
Stop Loss: 13.2% below entry (-13.2%)
The foundation pit inspection is done, the rebar should be tied—but this building only allows one perfect pour, no tolerance for a three-millimeter error.Capital inflow, privacy coins in the spotlight
Crypto market sentiment warms up. Bitcoin is priced at $84,530, firmly holding above the 84,000 mark and achieving the third strongest historical performance in Q3. Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, totaling approximately $2.98 billion, with cumulative inflows for 2026 turning positive again. Technically, BTC has reclaimed the 365-day moving average and crossed above the 50-week moving average; if the weekly close stays above $83,000, Q4 is expected to remain bullish.
Ethereum is priced at $2,706.49, showing initial signs of technical recovery from a year-long downtrend, but faces heavy resistance near $2,800. If it falls below $2,561, about $501 million in long positions face liquidation; if it breaks out with volume above $2,807, the target could be $3,063, whereas a drop below $2,627 may trigger another pullback.
ZEC is the center of attention, rising 7.28% in a single day to $1,664, hitting a new stage high, with a one-year increase of about 19 times and a market cap surpassing $20 billion. Since the launch of the Grayscale Zcash spot ETF, it has attracted over $233 million, with the ETF buying for 16 consecutive days totaling over $500 million; combined with whale withdrawals locking tokens and a sharp reduction in circulating supply, these three forces jointly push the price higher. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC Overall, the plan has played out very nicely. Breaking out from accumulation, consolidating below the previous highs, then expanding into the next target. Aside from 89.2K to 90.6K being a nice LTF area where we could see a rejection, the ideal extension for this leg sits around 92K to 94K. If this is a genuine impulse breakout and we are transitioning into a higher range, I would expect momentum to continue rather than see a new range form here. The market should capitalise on the moment$BTC Price is currently trading between two larger liquidity clusters. The one to the upside spreads from the recent highs around $87k all the way up toward $90k. Meanwhile, the much larger cluster below sits around the $80k–$81k region, right where BTC would retest the recent breakout from the previous range. With a new monthly open approaching, I could imagine a manipulation move at the start of the month into one of these clusters, followed by a larger reversal to target the other side later Closing Sunday night, let me share my stance for next week: no contract positions, only net long spot holdings, with zero leverage.
Some ask, next week is a data bomb week, shouldn't you have positioned contracts earlier? It's the opposite. Precisely because of the many bombs, I avoid overnight leverage—GDP, core PCE, and nonfarm payrolls all packed in one week, any single data point can swing the market back and forth twice. Entering with high-leverage contracts is like leaving the table to luck.
My spot longs are based on judgment; if it drops, no liquidation, I can sleep well; contract leverage is a heartbeat, once data hits, you have to react passively. The core of low-frequency big bets is never about betting big, but having bullets left in the most chaotic times. $BTC What do you think, will the bomb week start with a rise or a fall? The Fear and Greed Index has reached the greed zone at 70. Is the 8.36% surge in $PYTH driven by sentiment or the start of a trend? The answer leans toward the latter, but the process will have fluctuations.
At the market level, BTC maintains strength, driving altcoin rotation. Under greedy sentiment, capital is willing to pay a premium for high-volatility assets. $PYTH current price is 0.08541, with MA5 crossing above MA20 and the price stabilizing above both moving averages, indicating a bullish mid-term structure. However, two signals require caution: the MACD histogram is still at -0.0002999, momentum has not fully turned positive; the funding rate is +0.0050%, indicating increased long crowding and a short-term need for a pullback to shake out positions. RSI at 59.8 is not overbought, Bollinger upper band at 0.0880474 is the nearest resistance, and the lower band at 0.0812756 forms the support anchor for this cycle.
In terms of operation, buying near the MA5 pullback offers better cost-effectiveness. Entry reference is the 0.0835–0.0850 range, close to MA5=0.085308 and the Bollinger middle band, with RSI having room to rise after a pullback. Take profit 1 is at 0.0880, corresponding to the Bollinger upper band resistance; take profit 2 is at 0.0910, the measured extension after a breakout. Stop loss is set at 0.0808; falling below the Bollinger lower band at 0.0812756 indicates the bullish structure is broken.I opened a short position on $ETH at 2532 and have been stuck for a week. I thought this was my most stable trade because at that time the US raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and Japan also raised rates by 25 basis points. I assumed the rebound was over and that only endless crashes would follow. But I placed the short at 2532, and who would have thought it wasn’t the end at all? It rose 8.84% in 30 days, climbing all the way to 2,690. What bothers me now isn’t the 158 points lost, but that my logic was wrong. Rate hikes don’t actually cause a drop; they’re just a smokescreen to trap shorts. I’m waiting for a pullback, but it’s moving like an old lady climbing a hill, slowly and shakily. I’m also waiting for a breakdown, but it seems to be consolidating at the bottom. 2,650 is its recent support level, and I’m watching it closely. If it breaks, I can cut my losses by more than half. But it doesn’t seem to want to go down at all. Why is that? Is a market without pullbacks just a no-brainer to go long, where you can just stuff your money in a snake-skin bag?ETF frenzy buys 2.8 billion, but BTC remains unmoved? The truth lies in "hedging"
For six consecutive days, $2.8 billion flowed into BTC spot ETFs, yet the price slipped from 87,300 to 83,800. The money clearly came in, so why can't the price push higher?
The answer is simple: a significant portion of this capital isn't betting on direction at all.
A classic Wall Street strategy—buying spot ETFs while opening an equal short position in the futures market. Gains on both sides offset each other, with profits coming from the basis, yielding an annualized return that even beats the 5.2% risk-free rate of U.S. Treasuries. For institutions, this is arbitrage, not conviction.
So when you hear "institutions are rushing to buy BTC," you have to break it down: some are genuinely bullish and buying, while arbitrageurs are buying but immediately shorting. Although the ledger shows an inflow of 2.8 billion, the actual long exposure is far less.
The price looks ugly, but the fundamentals aren't bad. The money really did come in, but part of it is inherently "neutral." This is actually a sign of market maturity—serious players entering, shifting from one-sided speculation to structural arbitrage.
Next time you see "large ETF inflows," don't rush to call a bull run. Ask one more question: is this money profiting from price moves or from spreads?
How much of the 2.8 billion is true conviction and how much is arbitrage will be revealed in the next futures position report.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 $UNI in this BTC pullback only dropped as low as 8.7, which just happens to be my initial entry cost, and it hasn't fallen below 9 since then. Its performance is still very strong. Obviously, some are buying during this pullback, and where there are buyers, there are naturally sellers. UNI has currently attracted excessive attention, with many influencers discussing it. So, I need to be more cautious.
Looking at UNI exchange reserves, they've reached a historical high. In the past month, a large amount of UNI has flowed into exchanges, clearly indicating profit-taking is coming. I'm worried the main players will dump a wave here, fangshouyibo.
UNI might have two scenarios:
Scenario A: Move up, break away from the 9-dollar cost zone.
Scenario B: If BTC pulls back (if it does), there’s a chance to catch coins at 7 or in the 6 range.
The first batch of positions was established at 8.7, with a reduction at 9.2.
For the second batch, I will either chase 10 in Scenario A or catch at 7/6 in Scenario B, depending on BTC’s movement. If it rallies too fast, I won’t build positions because I’m still afraid the main players will dump. If BTC pulls back 20-30% and altcoins crash, I’ll get in. This batch will be my core position.
For the third batch, if it continues to break below 6, I’ll buy more the lower it goes.
After building positions, the most important thing is to hold through a 30-50% pullback in UNI (possibly more), because there are still 7 months until the halving. This period will be very volatile, and many will be shaken out. I hope those who build positions won’t blame me if UNI crashes hard later.
If you can’t hold, you can at least sell at 20 and get out. If you can hold, then hold for new highs. "Institutions didn't call trades this week, money flowed into these three lines"
As of the week ending September 25, the US spot ETF capital flow gives a clearer answer: institutions are buying and leaning towards allocation.
$BTC: Spot ETF weekly net inflow about $2.4 billion, ranking among the strongest weeks of 2026. IBIT about $1.2 billion, FBTC about $700 million, ARKB about $290 million leading. Seven consecutive trading days of net inflow, totaling about $3 billion, net inflow for the year turned from -$580 million to slightly positive. Around $84,000, more like compliant funds building positions weekly.
$ETH: Sentiment recovery is more obvious. Previously, redemptions and staking expectations tugged back and forth; this week spot ETF net inflow about $690 million, ETHA about $326 million, FETH about $174 million. Net increase for the year about $1.6 billion, total product assets about $17.8 billion. Combined with Erigon/Glamsterdam testnet updates, $2,700 is no longer just a technical level, with ETF buy orders supporting below.
$SOL: The breakout is in rhythm. Weekly ETF net inflow about $188 million, Friday single-day $86.7 million, a new high since listing, total product assets about $1.5 billion. On-chain side, Solmate treasury holds about 1.24 million SOL, market value about $146.7 million. Compliant ETFs and on-chain treasury both increasing positions simultaneously.
In short: This week institutions are buying BTC's certainty, $ETH's recovery resilience, and $SOL's high beta
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 Sideways consolidation isn't cold; ETFs are quietly "accumulating coins"
This week, the total net inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $2.39 billion, marking the strongest single week since October 2025 and the best weekly performance in nearly a year. The key is not a single-day buying spree, but sustained inflows throughout the week—nearly $2.4 billion flowing steadily, indicating that institutional willingness to allocate to BTC is recovering.
More subtly, the coin price hasn't surged with this momentum; instead, it has been grinding sideways at a high level. While prices hesitate, ETFs continue to accumulate. This divergence of "stable price with increasing volume" often conveys more information than a single large bullish candle. It suggests some funds are not rushing to chase the rally but are slowly gathering chips amid the consolidation.
If net inflows remain strong next week, every subsequent pullback will be worth watching: whether spot support thickens and whether selling pressure is quickly absorbed. Once chip turnover completes, an upward breakout after consolidation is not impossible.
Here’s the question: with institutions continuously entering, do you think this round of sideways consolidation will ultimately break upward or continue to shake out?
$BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 In the midst of the rally, control your hands first
$ETH suddenly broke through 2700, and the group chat started to buzz. BTC and ETH both rising does look like a sign of risk appetite warming up, but "looks like" is not the same as "is." Rising together could mean a trend is starting, or it could be the last dance before sentiment peaks. If you rush in just because you're afraid of missing out, that's not following the trend, that's FOMO.
I'm tempted too. Especially ZEC, which is surging wildly like it's off the leash, just a glance at the candlestick makes your hands itch. But temptation is one thing; people with small capital fear mistaking volatility for opportunity the most. ZEC can surprise you, but it can also teach you a lesson in minutes. Without position management, stop-loss discipline, and the confidence to endure drawdowns, even the best market can turn into a meat grinder.
Is today an opportunity? Maybe. But there are two kinds of opportunities: those you understand, and those you only understand in hindsight. The former is trading, the latter is regret. Instead of asking "should I go long," better ask: where is the stop-loss? How much will I lose if wrong? Can I sleep at night?
I've decided not to rush. Breakouts can be observed, pullbacks can be waited for, no chasing ZEC no matter how fierce it is. The market is always open, but your capital only comes once. Missing a move is not shameful; not being able to handle volatility is fatal.
$ETH $ZEC $BTC
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 BTC funds are buying, but the price is hesitating
Spot ETF has had nearly $3 billion net inflow for 7 consecutive days, and corporate treasuries haven't stopped either. Strategy and Strive disclosed a combined increase of about 2,305 BTC this week, valued at approximately $183 million. The capital side is relatively warm, but the market is not cooperating: BTC current price is about 84,400, after touching 87,400 this week it fell back, still below 85,000.
My thinking: slightly bullish, but no chasing. If it pulls back to 83,800–84,000, lightly try going long; first target 85,000, further target 86,000–86,500. If it breaks below 83,200, this short-term logic is invalidated, don't hold hard. Treasury buying does not mean the price will immediately break through; the rebound midway is the easiest time to get hit by a flying knife.
ETF and corporate buying can provide support, but before reclaiming the weekly high, position is more important than direction. The same applies to ETH and SOL; following the rise is fine, but don't chase when sentiment is overheated. Currently suitable to wait for a pullback, control position size, and set invalidation points. Funds are buying, price hasn't caught up, patience is more valuable than impulse. $BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Just saw the top discussion on the planet still tagged with that label—BTC spot ETF net inflow for seven consecutive days. The community sums up the seven days to nearly 3 billion, and the single-week figure of about 2.4 billion is repeatedly thrown out for comparison; the IBIT leading fund is also often mentioned. The continuous net inflow itself is not really debatable; what's more striking is that the single-day amount at the end has shrunk from nearly 1 billion on Monday. Money is still coming in, but the slope is changing—not that there’s no supply, just a change in rhythm. The weekend discussion still hangs on this line, and after Monday’s opening, everyone will probably continue to compare whether the inflow has picked up.Is $CORE in decline, or has the market missed the real signal?
$5.3 million DeFi TVL looks bad.
But TVL alone doesn't tell the full story.
Take a closer look:
🔹 49,000 daily transactions
🔹 9,100 active addresses
🔹 $2,500 daily DEX trading volume
🔹 $5 daily on-chain fees
🔹 $2.65 million on-chain stablecoins
🔹 BTCFi + staking infrastructure still active
The issue isn't that $CORE lacks activity.
The issue is the economic value generated by that activity.
Transactions exist, but volume and fees remain extremely low.
This raises a bigger question:
Is $CORE still building a real Bitcoin economy, or is the network just maintaining activity without meaningful economic growth?
$BTC staking and validator participation matter.
But secure participation ≠ a thriving $DEFI economy.
$CORE doesn't need more slogans.
It needs liquidity, users, volume, fees, and sustainable value capture.
Fundamentals first.
Price second.
Data over narrative.
What do you think? Is this a turnaround opportunity or a warning sign?👇
#CoreDAO #CORE #BTCFi #DeFi #Bitcoin$DOGE Triple supply walls to break
The cost basis distribution heatmap shows that around $0.098, approximately 28 billion DOGE changed hands, forming the first strong resistance. If the price breaks out with volume, there is still a supply wall of about 498 million DOGE near $0.11. Continuing upward, $0.20 will be a bigger test, with about 12 billion DOGE accumulated there, potentially significantly increasing selling pressure. On the macro sentiment side, $BTC spot ETFs have seen nearly $3 billion net inflow for 7 consecutive days, indicating a warming capital environment that may benefit $ETH. However, whether DOGE can establish a trend still depends on whether it can gradually absorb the above chip zones. $BTC #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 The two largest institutional BTC holdings are now very close.
As of the latest data:
US spot BTC ETF: approximately 1,289,500 BTC
Accounting for about 6.14% of BTC's final supply
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy): 846,000 BTC
Accounting for about 4.03% of the final supply
The ETF's total holdings are about 1.52 times that of Strategy, exceeding by approximately 440,000 BTC.
However, the nature of these holdings is completely different:
The BTC in the ETF essentially represents custodial assets jointly held by investors through the fund, with subscriptions and redemptions affecting the holdings;
Strategy's 846,000 BTC are directly held on the company's balance sheet.
The current institutional BTC holding landscape is very clear:
US spot ETF: 1.29 million BTC
Strategy: 846,000 BTC
Among them, IBIT alone: 799,000 BTC
The next interesting observation line is:
Will IBIT surpass Strategy first to become the largest single institutional BTC holding entity?
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #IBIT #MSTR #StrategyAI rotation just found a smaller door.
$KITE jumped 12.3% as spot volume expanded 76% to $34.6M, breaking its multi-month ~$0.14 compression. The twist: leverage followed—futures activity and OI accelerated as price approached ~$0.16.
OKX recorded today’s range at $0.1405–$0.1595.
A breakout backed by volume is useful. A breakout suddenly crowded with leverage deserves a seatbelt. The institutional chip structure of BTC has completely changed.
Grayscale's two products combined hold about 190,300 BTC, accounting for about 14.8% of the total chips in the US spot ETF.
Meanwhile, BlackRock's IBIT alone holds 798,700 BTC, about 62% of the total ETF chips, which is approximately 4.2 times the total BTC ETF holdings of Grayscale.
This is the most noteworthy change in the current BTC ETF chip structure:
Grayscale is no longer the largest institutional chip pool; BlackRock IBIT has clearly formed a leading concentration.
Currently, the BTC held by IBIT is even close to Strategy's approximately 846,000 BTC.
The large BTC chips are forming a new pattern:
Strategy 846,000
BlackRock IBIT 799,000
Grayscale 190,000
Fidelity FBTC 184,000
What is truly worth watching next is when IBIT will surpass 800,000 BTC and whether the gap with Strategy will continue to narrow.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #IBIT #Grayscale #BlackRockSleepless late at night, just the right time to review my trading performance during this small bull market, recording gains and losses for future iteration. Market conditions Starting from August 19, $BTC surged from 65,000 to a peak of 87,000, achieving an astonishing 33% increase within 40 days, while $ETH recorded an even higher gain of 40%. During this period, despite disturbances such as the US-Iran geopolitical conflict, Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, and setbacks in the US "Clear Act" progress, the market overall showed resilience as if "a light boat has passed through thousands of mountains," perhaps this is the charm of a bull market. In this round of market, tokens like $ZEC (privacy sector), $NEAR, $UNI, $ARB, etc., all posted several-fold impressive gains, truly a dividend period for the patient. 2. Reflecting on trading Let's start with spot trading. I began positioning on the left side of the bear market in March this year. Most of the available funds were used to buy spot, with only a small portion for contracts. The tokens and average prices allocated were as follows: 80 SOL, 2000 ETH, 1.3 NEAR, 37 HYPE, 0.8 DOGE, and 0.15 MEGA. The most regrettable "selling too early" — NEAR: It started from a bottom of 1.3 and rose to a high of 5.4 (4x increase), but I liquidated near 2.3. Although I locked in a profit of 10,000 RMB, I watched it multiply several times. The initial buying logic was a bet on its AI narrative (comparable to TAO), but later#特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划
The Trump administration is targeting stablecoins this time, but I think the focus is not really on the coins themselves, but on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds.
The news is: the US is considering promoting the use of dollar stablecoins overseas, possibly involving the Treasury Department, State Department, and DFC, cooperating with private enterprises to advance this. The goal is straightforward: to continue expanding the dollar and to find more buyers for US Treasury bonds.
This logic is actually easy to understand.
The larger the scale of $USDT and $USDC, the more reserve assets issuers need to prepare, and the core reserves allowed by the US GENIUS Act include dollars and short-term US Treasury bonds. Currently, stablecoin issuers hold nearly $200 billion in US Treasury bonds and related assets.
So if the US really pushes dollar stablecoins overseas, it is equivalent to creating a "dollar export on-chain."
Previously, overseas users who wanted to hold dollars had to go through the banking system;
in the future, they might just need a wallet to hold $USDT and $USDC.
Users hold stablecoins, but behind that, the demand for dollars and US Treasury bonds may increase.
I think the biggest narrative behind stablecoins is no longer just crypto payments. What the US really wants to do is to move dollar hegemony from the banking system onto the blockchain.