
周期教授
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CPI will be announced tonight, will AI tech stocks rise or fall?
Regarding the CPI announcement, I am more concerned about the stock market trend. Let's look at it from another angle. In recent years, China's best-performing fund company, Orient Harbor, has gone all-in on upstream semiconductors, computing hardware, storage, and optical communications.
Cloud vendors' AI capital expenditure guidance remains strong. I believe ordinary investors should buy $SMH and $DRAM on dips. The performance realization of computing power, storage, and optical communications will continue to support a fluctuating upward trend in stock prices.
Next, let's consider two assumptions:
If tonight's CPI data is lower than expected, market concerns about tightening policies will ease, prioritizing technology growth stocks.
If the CPI inflation data exceeds expectations, the market may reprice the Fed's interest rate path, and liquidity tightening will put valuation adjustment pressure on high-level tech stocks.

#今晚CPI公布,9月加息定价会改写吗?
Regarding the CPI release, everyone is more concerned about the stock market trend. Let's look at it from another angle: China's best-performing fund company in recent years, Oriental Harbor, has fully gone all-in on upstream semiconductors, computing hardware, storage, and optical communications.
Cloud providers' AI capital expenditure guidance remains strong. I believe ordinary investors should buy $SMH and $DRAM on dips. The performance realization of computing power, storage, and optical communications will continue to support a fluctuating upward trend in stock prices.
Next, let's consider two assumptions:
If tonight's CPI data is lower than expected, market concerns about tightening policies will ease, prioritizing technology growth stocks.
If the CPI inflation data exceeds expectations, the market may reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, and liquidity tightening will bring valuation adjustment pressure to high-level tech stocks.

This US stock is quite interesting
Bending Spoons $BSP founder once boldly declared: "We want to be a combination of Berkshire Hathaway and Google!"
They don’t develop hit products themselves but specialize in picking up well-known, user-established but slow-growing legacy software in the market—such as Evernote, WeTransfer, StreamYard, Vimeo, Airtable, etc.
Their core strategy is to radically restructure the flow through AI:
Acquire application software: once the acquisition is complete, immediately clean up the large redundant original team and completely remove historical burdens.
Full-stack AI reconstruction: deploy their own full-stack engineers to rewrite the previously bloated and outdated codebase with modern technology and AI, reducing costs.
Monetize business model: fully shift to a strong subscription model and raise prices, directly boosting cash flow, then use the earned money to buy the next target product!
I feel this company’s approach is quite good, focusing on quickly profiting through AI. It’s worth paying attention to, and its stock price has also performed well.

This US stock is quite interesting
Bending Spoons $BSP founder once boldly declared: "We want to be a combination of Berkshire Hathaway and Google!"
They don't develop hit products themselves but specialize in picking up well-known, user-established but slow-growing legacy software in the market—such as Evernote, WeTransfer, StreamYard, Vimeo, Airtable, etc.
Their core strategy is to use AI to radically restructure the flow:
Acquire application software: once the acquisition is complete, immediately clean up the large redundant original team and completely remove historical burdens.
Full-stack AI reconstruction: deploy their own full-stack engineers to rewrite the previously bloated and outdated codebase with modern technology and AI, reducing costs.
Monetize the business model: fully shift to a strong subscription model and raise prices, directly boosting cash flow, then use the earned money to buy the next target product!
I think this company's approach is quite good, focusing on quickly profiting through AI. It’s worth paying attention to, and its stock price has also performed well.

Sell $BTC at 66800 to continue earning an annualized return of 20%
This time selling 0.2 Bitcoin
Now feeling Bitcoin is strengthening, afraid of missing out on spot, so doing a small amount of dual currency win, mainly buying on pullbacks

$BTC daily chart shows 10 consecutive gains. Should you chase the high directly or wait for a pullback?
To conclude, it is not recommended to chase the high at the current price. RSI is overbought and there have been 10 consecutive up days. Short-term, there could be volatility correction or a pullback at any time. Chasing now has a very low risk-reward ratio. Strong resistance above: 69400 - 73500 USD

Wait for a pullback confirmation before entering a position. A prudent strategy is to wait for the price to pull back with reduced volume without breaking support, or to consolidate at a high level to digest the overbought indicator before entering. Strong support below: 62680 - 63000 USD
The current market shows characteristics of a "mid-term trend stabilizing and warming up, but short-term facing overbought correction."
Bullish momentum is strong but volume is moderate: The daily chart has pushed continuous bullish candles from the bottom around 57800 USD to 65293 USD, and the SAR stop-loss reversal point is now below the candlesticks, indicating the short-term downtrend has ended and bulls have regained control. However, trading volume has not significantly increased, indicating a moderate upward push.
Short-term indicators have entered the overbought zone: RSI reached 71.13, entering the over 70 overbought range, meaning the short-term price has risen sharply without effective shakeout or consolidation, and profit-taking pressure is accumulating.
The energy bar has turned red, indicating the mid-term rebound pattern remains healthy.
Why is it that even though they are both optical modules,
Zhongji Xuchuang plummeted while Lumentum $LITE rose?
Zhongji Xuchuang's stock price fell from a high of ¥1416.88 to ¥850.05. Even though its performance and technology are absolutely leading in the industry, when facing policy expectations such as the FCC ban or overseas restrictions, market funds avoid risks.
Lumentum $LITE, on the other hand, violently rebounded. The market logic is very simple and crude—if Chinese optical module manufacturers face order restrictions or compliance risks, the North American local supply chain represented by Lumentum will inevitably take over the overflow orders and capacity gaps.
There are always some bloggers who, after being trapped, adopt an ostrich mentality: they believe that giants like Nvidia are extremely dependent on China's optical module delivery capabilities and cost advantages, and that the US government dares not truly cut off supply.
They think the strong demand from the AI computing power revolution can override regulatory rules.
The market is ruthless. History repeatedly proves that when regulations and laws are truly implemented or give clear signals, the capital market prices according to survival and compliance logic.
Capital would rather accept higher short-term procurement costs and slower delivery than face policy black swans.
If I were to choose to buy tech stocks,
I would only buy $SMH, not A-share tech stocks.
Every time is different, but actually every time is the same.
Howard Marks wrote a passage in "The Most Important Thing" that says:
"Sometimes, when an uptrend or downtrend has lasted a long time and reached an extreme, people start saying 'this time is different.' They bring up geopolitics, institutional changes, technological revolutions, behavioral shifts, saying the old rules are outdated. Then they make investment decisions based on recent trends. However, subsequent results prove that the old rules still apply, and the cycle restarts. Trees don’t grow to the sky, and very few things go to zero, but most phenomena are cyclical."


Why do two optical modules behave so differently,
with Zhongji Xuchuang plummeting while Lumentum rises?
Zhongji Xuchuang's stock price fell from a high of ¥1416.88 to ¥850.05. Even though its performance and technology are absolutely leading in the industry, market funds avoid risks when facing policy expectations such as the FCC ban or overseas restrictions.
Lumentum $LITE, on the other hand, violently rebounds. The market logic is very simple and crude—if Chinese optical module manufacturers face order restrictions or compliance risks, the North American local supply chain represented by Lumentum will inevitably take over the overflow orders and capacity gaps.
Some bloggers adopt an ostrich mentality after being trapped: they believe that giants like Nvidia are extremely dependent on China's optical module delivery capabilities and cost advantages, and that the US government dares not truly cut them off.
They think the strong demand from the AI computing power revolution can override regulatory rules.
The market is ruthless. History repeatedly proves that when regulations and laws are truly implemented or give clear signals, the capital market prices according to survival and compliance logic.
Capital would rather accept higher short-term procurement costs and slower delivery than face policy black swans.
If I had to choose tech stocks to buy,
I would only buy $smh, not A-share tech stocks.
Every time is different, but actually every time is the same.
Howard Marks wrote a passage in "The Most Important Thing" that says:
"Sometimes, when an uptrend or downtrend has lasted a long time and reached an extreme, people start saying 'this time is different.' They bring up geopolitics, institutional changes, technological revolutions, behavioral shifts, saying the old rules are outdated. Then they make investment decisions based on recent trends. However, subsequent results prove that the old rules still apply, and the cycle restarts. Trees don’t grow to the sky, and very few things go to zero, but most phenomena are cyclical."


Is being a professional trader the best career?
Some think it's gambling, others see it as a cash machine.
Those who understand the rules deeply can truly experience this ultimate freedom: no need to watch the boss's mood, no need to rely on family background, no need for social drinking or networking. Just a computer and a phone, the market is everything. No midlife crisis at 35, no complicated social relationships.
Many say trading is risky.
But look closely around you: isn't entrepreneurship risky? Small street shops change hands three times a year, throwing in hundreds of thousands in franchise and renovation fees, losing it all if it doesn't work out. Isn't working for others risky? Health deteriorates, companies lay off employees, industries decline, and you can be eliminated by the market at any time.
In comparison, trading risks are actually the most transparent: if something feels off, you can directly liquidate with one click, stop losses can be executed anytime.
Can you just close a physical store whenever you want? The capital tied up in inventory, the rent and deposits paid—can any of that be refunded immediately?
Of course, this job is definitely not easy.
It demands extremely high cognition, knowledge, and the hardest part: discipline. But compared to bowing and scraping in real life, being able to survive independently in a room based on your ability is a freedom truly worth its weight in gold.
Of course, you must also be aware of the risks. If you are a beginner, you must not directly trade based on others' work or buy just because others shout about rises and falls. First, use a small amount of money that won't affect your life to test and learn from mistakes, accumulate practical experience, and never blindly increase your capital before establishing a stable, reproducible trading system.
