Live streamer: @币圈教父mogul

The only trader in the Assassin community @飞哥定投策略 @交易员飞哥 @比特币飞哥, with ten years in the circle, only making stable trades!

⚠️⚠️⚠️ Recently, there have been multiple instances of people impersonating me to scam others: Statement! Statement! First point: My Twitter link is provided in my Planet profile for verification, and you can also verify by the X mark after the homepage name. All others are fake! This is the only Twitter account! Second point: The tutorial videos and live trading challenge records are all updated by @飞哥定投策略, all others are fake! Everyone, please do not be deceived! Others are all fake! All are impersonators! Feige is my only senior disciple @飞哥定投策略, there is no one else!

#CLARITY vote pending, SEC rules not finalized I am Cige. Both regulatory paths for crypto in the U.S. are currently blocked. The CLARITY Act did not advance before the August recess, and the full Senate vote has officially been postponed to September. Senate Majority Leader Schumer confirmed that the process will resume after lawmakers return on September 14. On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 has dropped from over 70% in early May to about 14%. Democrats are demanding stricter ethical provisions related to approximately $1.4 billion in crypto business linked to the Trump family. The Republicans hold 53 seats, the bill needs 60 votes, and at least 7 Democrats would have to defect; currently, only 2 publicly support advancing it. If there is no substantial progress before September 15, it will basically be dead during the midterm election season. The SEC path is also blocked. A meeting scheduled for August 15 to discuss the Reg Crypto rule proposal, which would cover exemptions for crypto asset issuance, was canceled at the last minute on the evening of August 14 due to "unforeseen scheduling issues," with no new date announced. This rule is seen as the SEC's first major attempt at rulemaking in the digital asset space. Both regulatory paths in crypto—administrative rulemaking and legislative progress—are currently stalled. Regarding the impact on BTC, the head of research at Grayscale put it plainly: even if the CLARITY Act does not pass, it will not immediately affect the operation of mainstream blockchains or the demand for Bitcoin as a store of value. Bitcoin does not need CLARITY; the U.S. needs clarity. Regardless of the Senate schedule, BTC continues to produce blocks every 10 minutes. SEC Chair Gensler has previously stated that the SEC is ready to issue regulatory rules addressing the same issues as the CLARITY Act. Bitwise's CIO believes that under the current SEC leadership, regulatory rules might be more favorable than congressional legislation. But with the rulemaking meeting postponed, neither path is viable in the short term. U.S. crypto regulation has entered a dual stalemate. Legislation is stalled, and rulemaking is delayed. The short-term sentiment is bearish, but this will not change BTC's long-term investment thesis. The CLARITY Act's expected passage rate has fallen from 70% at the start of the year to 14%, while BTC oscillates around 64,000. Political games are noise; hash power and consensus are the direction. Don't get shaken off by Washington's bickering. Cige has finished speaking. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK

Assassin Army Everyone is here! Listen to my command! Sndk Stop asking where to do it Stop asking where to work Current price... $SNDK

SanDisk $SNDK has created a group of wealthy people in the last two days

Grateful for sndk$SNDK Currently up 400 points🔥🔥🔥🔥 Take profit at 1/30 Stop loss at 1450 Next take profit target 1622 Reached take profit at 29/30 $BTC $ETH

Live streamer: @比特帝剧本哥

I am Cige. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan proposed a viewpoint that the valuation logic of crypto assets is changing, shifting from focusing on market cap and narratives to looking at on-chain fees and protocol revenue. This shift is happening, but it has little impact on BTC's pricing logic because BTC is a different species. Revenue metrics are effective for ETH and DeFi because they generate cash flow. On-chain fees are real cash flow. Ethereum generated about $2.5 billion in fees cumulatively in 2024, and with the AI narrative and Pectra upgrade expectations heating up in 2025, this number could be higher. DeFi protocols like Uniswap, Aave, and Lido each generate quantifiable revenue. Uniswap's single-month fee revenue exceeded $140 million in July 2026, annualizing over $1.6 billion. When the market values these assets, it can use discounted cash flow models, which, even if imperfect, at least provide a common frame of reference. BTC's pricing logic is completely different. BTC is not equity, does not generate cash flow, has no protocol revenue, and does not distribute dividends. Its value comes from three things: scarcity, ETF capital flows, and macro interest rates plus the store-of-value narrative. Bitwise itself admits that for non-yield assets like BTC, the market usually still prices them around these traditional frameworks. Historically, investors' valuation of BTC has evolved from exchange demand to macro asset and ETF demand. The core factor driving BTC's price has always been the capital flow of Bitcoin spot ETFs. In recent weeks, ETFs have had continuous net inflows, and BTC rebounded from 62,000 to around 65,000; this is the most direct pricing logic. Revenue metrics will not replace BTC's store-of-value narrative but will change how the market prices crypto assets. ETH, DeFi, and platform assets will increasingly resemble traditional financial assets, valued by income, profit, and cash flow. BTC will increasingly resemble digital gold, priced by scarcity, institutional allocation ratios, and macro interest rates. The two are not competitors but two different valuation tracks. One data point shows this divergence accelerating: global debt has surpassed $400 trillion, and U.S. Treasury debt is close to $40 trillion. As fiat credit continues to erode, BTC's store-of-value narrative will not fail due to lack of cash flow; instead, it will be strengthened by the ongoing weakening of counterparty credit. Conclusion Revenue metrics will become the core valuation tool for some crypto assets, especially protocols and platforms that can generate sustained cash flow. But it will not replace BTC's store-of-value narrative because BTC's underlying logic is completely different from these assets. For BTC, continuing to focus on ETF capital flows, macro interest rates, and institutional allocation ratios makes much more sense than calculating its protocol revenue. Cige has finished speaking. Ponder it carefully. #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ $BTC $ETH $SNDK

Happy Birthday～ Enjoy the picture together

#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 I am Cige, and the SanDisk Investor Day exploded. The stock price surged nearly 14% in a single day, closing at $1528, with an intraday rise of over 17%. What big moves were revealed at Investor Day? SanDisk presented a long-term financial model from FY2028 to FY2030, with revenue maintaining mid-to-high double-digit growth, a non-GAAP gross margin of about 80%, an operating margin of about 75%, and an adjusted free cash flow margin of about 50%. Supporting this target is the long-term customer agreement NBM framework. Eight customers have signed contracts with a total contract value of about $94 billion, and remaining performance obligations of about $91 billion. Approximately 50% of FY2027 shipments are already covered by NBM agreements, increasing to about 67% in FY2028. Regarding capital returns, the company commits to returning 100% of excess free cash flow to shareholders, prioritizing stock buybacks. The board previously authorized a $6 billion buyback plan, of which about $4.5 billion has been executed, with an additional $14 billion authorized, totaling a remaining buyback capacity of about $15.5 billion. Goldman Sachs directly stated that this capital return intensity far exceeds any announcements by peers to date. Goldman Sachs directly set a $2200 target price. Goldman Sachs reiterated a buy rating with a 12-month target price of $2200, based on a 20x P/E ratio on normalized EPS of $110. Goldman Sachs believes the long-term guidance far exceeds expectations, and the HBF high-bandwidth flash technology roadmap offers huge upside potential. Previously, Citi lowered its target price from $2500 to $2100, Morgan Stanley set a $2500 target price, and Bank of America maintained $2500. The nearly 14% single-day surge and intraday rise over 17% show that short sellers are still being forced to cover. Current operational advice: On August 13, Investor Day, SanDisk surged nearly 18% intraday, reaching a high of $1613, and finally closed at $1528. After hours, it continued to rise to around $1569. The $1588 level is right at the upper edge of the high-level consolidation zone following the Investor Day surge, representing a short-term extreme sentiment area. Technical analysis clearly points out that SanDisk’s daily resistance levels are at $1675 and $1788; $1588 is just below these strong resistance levels, marking the limit of the rebound, not the start of a breakout. Technical perspective: triple resistance resonance First, a short-term overbought signal has appeared. On Investor Day, SanDisk surged nearly 14%, with an intraday rise over 17%. On the 1-hour chart, after reaching near $1580, SanDisk pulled back and is in a high-level consolidation digestion phase, a normal technical correction after a surge, with short-term retracement needed. Once the chasing buyers exhaust, profit-taking will rush out. Second, $1588 is the upper edge of the previous platform consolidation area before the sharp drop. SanDisk fell sharply from the historical high of $2354; the overall downtrend structure remains intact, with price still running below the Bollinger middle band. The drop from $2354 to $993 and the rebound to $1588 is near the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a typical rebound limit zone. Third, the daily-level downtrend line has not been effectively broken. Analysis points out that only when SanDisk’s daily downtrend line is broken will the upside space open. $1588 is right near this trend line, a key battleground between bulls and bears. Fundamental perspective: triple bearish pressure First, earnings guidance below expectations is the core contradiction. SanDisk’s Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year, with a record gross margin of 84.6% and EPS of $39.25. But what really crushed the stock was the FY2027 Q1 guidance: revenue midpoint of $10.55 billion, below analysts’ expectation of $10.8 billion. After the earnings release, SanDisk’s stock dropped over 13% intraday, closing down 6.81%. Essentially, this is a typical capital market expectation game; the market had already priced in expectations, so the earnings release was a full realization of good news. Second, performance is supported by price increases, not demand explosion. Of this quarter’s 51% sequential revenue increase, only one-third came from increased product shipments; the remaining two-thirds relied entirely on NAND flash price hikes. This means the current earnings bonus is essentially a gift from the chip price cycle, not a synchronous expansion of downstream real demand. Consumer business revenue was $556 million, down 32% sequentially, far from market expectations. When consumer NAND demand weakens and enterprise demand growth slows, SanDisk’s revenue structure will face dual pressure. Third, signals of a cycle peak are becoming clearer. TrendForce data shows NAND contract prices rose 70% to 75% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, but Bernstein analysts noted Q3 DRAM price increases dropped sharply to about 17%, NAND about 20%. Storage is gradually becoming a cost burden for AI and non-AI applications. Citron publicly shorted SanDisk as early as February, pointing directly to NAND industry reliance on supply cycles. Short position strategy at $1588 $1588 is a short-snipe position waiting for the rebound to complete, not a direct short at the current price. Total position controlled at 10% to 15% of total funds, leverage no more than 3x. Stop loss set above $1630. The daily resistance at $1675 is a stronger resistance; if $1588 is effectively broken and held, the short logic fails and exit unconditionally. Take profit in three batches. First batch: close 30% at $1450 to $1480, the platform area before the Investor Day surge. Second batch: close 30% at $1350 to $1380, the Bollinger middle band resistance zone. Third batch: close the remaining 40% at $1220 to $1250. Trailing stop loss rule: for every 50-point drop in price, move stop loss down 30 points. At $1450, stop loss moves from $1630 to $1600. At $1350, from $1600 to $1570. At $1250, from $1570 to $1540. If the price repeatedly fails to break below $1450 to $1480, most of the short position is closed in this range. If the price breaks below $1350 with volume, the remaining position continues to hold, targeting $1220. Bottom line Shorting at $1588 profits from profit-taking after the Investor Day sentiment extreme, from the ongoing negative impact of guidance below expectations, and from the expectation of a storage cycle peak. Goldman Sachs gave a $2200 target price, but that is based on long-term expectations for 2028 to 2030. The current $1588 price already reflects a large amount of long-term positive factors, making short-term chasing of gains very low in cost-effectiveness. $BTC $SNDK $ETH