CPI hasn't been released yet, but gold $XAU has already skyrocketed, this guy is really strong. It broke through 4400 yesterday, continued to hold at 4418 today, and even surged to 4448 intraday. Silver also strengthened in sync, rising nearly 1.4% intraday. Weak employment data lowered rate hike expectations, the stalemate in the Hormuz agreement added fuel to safe-haven sentiment, combined with multiple supports from central bank gold purchases and institutional allocations, this early rise in gold indicates the market already expects CPI to cool down further. But the data hasn't come out yet, and the price has already risen, which inherently carries risk. If tonight's CPI really meets or even falls below expectations, gold may continue to surge. But if CPI rebounds, the market will be caught off guard, and the correction from the expectation gap could be quite painful. Storage stocks led by $SNDK also surged sharply today. SanDisk rose over 3.6% pre-market, $SKHYNIX rose over 4.4%. Gold is rising, storage stocks are rising, but the two markets are trading completely different things. Gold is trading geopolitical and rate cut expectations, while storage stocks are trading sentiment recovery from AI infrastructure earnings season. Market funds flowing simultaneously to both safe-haven and growth ends indicate layered risk appetite. $SPCX is flat, consolidating while waiting for direction. CPI data will be the variable that breaks the balance; cooling data may break previous highs, rebounding data may cause a pullback. Tonight's CPI is the biggest variable. If the data is good, gold and storage stocks can continue to surge. #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温

The AI infrastructure earnings season kicks off with a bang Lumentum's revenue reached 1.006 billion, up 109% year-over-year, with after-hours gains exceeding 5%. CoreWeave's revenue hit 2.575 billion, up 112% year-over-year, with backlog piling up to 104 billion, and after-hours gains over 16%. SpaceX's first batch of unlocked shares didn't crash the market; the stock price returned to its IPO level. But looking closely, there's another layer in the data. Lumentum posted a net loss of 7.2 billion, CoreWeave's capital expenditure this year is between 35 to 39 billion, and SpaceX's next batch of 7% restricted shares will also unlock on August 20. Good performance is a fact, but burning cash even more fiercely is also a fact. Palantir and SpaceX have already set the rules: the quarterly numbers are just the entry ticket; guidance sets the valuation. The market isn't looking at how much you earned in the past, but whether you can continue to exceed expectations going forward. On the storage side, $SNDK rose over 3%, $SKHYNIX nearly 5%. SanDisk's Investor Day on August 13 is the biggest variable recently; the market is waiting for management to provide the AI storage roadmap. Whether weak guidance is conservative or demand is truly cooling down, that day will provide answers. The long-term logic of AI infrastructure remains intact, but valuation pressure hasn't eased. CPI data and the August 20 unlock are the two key points to watch next. Xiaomi $XIAOMI is also entering the crypto space, which is worth everyone's attention. #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

Tonight's CPI will determine the next moves of BTC and ETH Last week, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000. Logically, with employment clearly cooling, the market should lower its rate hike expectations, but the latest pricing has once again returned to an even split. This indicates that my previous guess aligns with the market's stance; the market has not fully believed in the weakening employment. Employment data only opened a window to pause rate hikes; the real determinant of the Fed's stance remains inflation. Therefore, the CPI data released tonight is especially critical. The market expects the overall CPI monthly rate to be 0.1% and the core CPI monthly rate to be 0.2%. If the actual data is lower than expected, the resonance of weak employment and cooling inflation may cause rate hike expectations to fall again, potentially supporting BTC and ETH. But if the core CPI is hotter than expected, the market will worry again about the Fed continuing to raise rates. BTC and ETH may then face a round of repricing. Tonight, don't just focus on the overall CPI; the core monthly rate might be the number the market truly cares about. Since current policy expectations are close to an even split, volatility after the data release could be significant, possibly with initial spikes up and down to clear leverage before a true direction emerges. Ultimately, what the market needs to confirm tonight is whether weak employment can suppress rate hike expectations or if stubborn inflation will force the Fed to step on the brakes again. $BTC $ETH $XAU #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？

As soon as the night session opened, something felt off; every night, the US and Iran stir up trouble. BTC and ETH plunged sharply following news of the Strait's closure, while $CL steadily held above $82. Geopolitical risk is being repriced. The Hormuz agreement talks are as good as nonexistent. Both the US and Iran are escalating, but it's chips, not sincerity, that they're raising. The deadlock's core isn't the agreement itself but its implementation. Negotiations between Iran and Oman are still stuck in bickering, not even touching on basic terms like transit fees. Analysts say Iran's chips are depreciating, international tolerance for blocking the strait is decreasing, but the strait won't reopen anytime soon. The transmission chain is clear: geopolitical risk pushes oil prices up, oil prices raise inflation expectations, inflation expectations limit rate cut space, and risk assets naturally come under pressure. If tonight's CPI data continues to cool down, this logic chain can ease a bit, but if CPI rebounds, geopolitical and macro factors will create a double squeeze. For now, wait for tonight's data to settle; avoid making predictions before the direction becomes clear. No matter how lively the night session is, it can't compare to the weight of those numbers. $BTC $ETH $BZ $CL #霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温

U.S. stock market opens, storage and chip sectors take the initiative SanDisk up 1.7%, SK Hynix up 2.4%, NVDA up 1.8%, storage concept stocks collectively surge, but after the surge, none hold steady and start to pull back. Capital is entering, but not planning to stay long, more like grabbing an early position before the CPI data release. If the data is good, they stay; if bad, they withdraw at any time. SpaceX is also sending signals. The first batch of unlocked shares did not crash the market; the stock price even returned to the IPO price, indicating that market panic over unlocking is fading. But the next batch of 7% restricted shares will come on August 20, and the shorts are not giving up, with 250 million shares shorted. The AI infrastructure earnings season is also starting simultaneously, with Lumentum and CoreWeave reporting after market close tonight, Coherent tomorrow, and Applied Materials the day after. Covering optical communications, AI cloud, equipment, and networks. The rebound in SanDisk and Hynix looks more like an oversold recovery, not yet a signal of demand confirmation. NVDA is pushing open-source AI models; the long-term logic remains unchanged, but valuation pressure is present, and macro data will determine the short-term direction. At this point, don’t chase the rise, don’t panic on the fall. Wait for the CPI release to decide; the data will tell us whether to stay or withdraw. $SNDK $SPCX $SKHYNIX $NVDA #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

NVIDIA and Intel are both raising money for AI, but their fundraising methods are completely different. NVIDIA doesn't put up its own money nor dilute equity; it purely leverages its platform capabilities and industry position to mobilize Wall Street's funds. Intel, on the other hand, directly issues new shares, reportedly increasing from 15 billion to 20 billion, with subscription demand exceeding 100 billion. These two paths laid out reflect the completely different positions of the two companies in the AI industry chain. NVIDIA can create a financing platform because GPU demand far exceeds supply. Customers want to buy computing power but lack funds to build data centers; Wall Street wants to invest in AI but lacks project entry points. NVIDIA sits right in the middle, connecting these two ends, raising customers' capital expenditures without spending a dime itself, while continuing to firmly control GPU pricing and allocation rights. Intel doesn't have this condition. It can only sell stock to raise money for capital expenditures and AI chip R&D. Subscription demand exceeding 100 billion shows the market is willing to provide funds, but the cost is equity dilution. Financing capability is becoming a key variable in the AI race. Whoever can get more money at a lower cost can run longer. NVIDIA's model is more sophisticated and non-dilutive but depends on continued external capital cooperation; Intel's issuance can quickly replenish funds but at the cost of equity. Neither model is absolutely good or bad, but in this money-burning race of AI infrastructure, financing ability itself is a moat. Winners on this track must not only be good at making chips but also at raising money. #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 $SNDK $NVDA $INTC

I'm honestly speechless—are the altcoins collectively going on a kill-off? Yesterday, I was watching $BEAT T fall from 3.4 to 2.6, but today it dropped straight to 1.07—40 points, and the day was gone $BICO also crashed, dropping from 0.07 to 0.038, halved $LAB Even more frustrating, my Martingal multi-single, which was running fine, today it was a tie for me This wave of altcoins is really fierce The CPI hasn't been released yet, and the market hasn't crashed; the altcoins collapsed first, and it was a completely unstoppable crash This indicates that funds are accelerating the withdrawal of small coins, and they have lost patience even for CPI Right now, the market is short-handed with two words: cash is shrinking, liquidity is shrinking, and capital would rather wait for CPI to land before moving than spend the night in small coins. The vulnerability of altcoins is fully exposed; when they fall, there's no bottom, not even a decent rebound. My own LAB grid was originally planned for long-distance running. But this afternoon, a waterfall was directly restored to a forced draw. This round can only be said to be a bit overconfident. When I used to trade Lab Strategy long orders, I really overestimated myself, which led to this huge drawdown. Honestly, I felt very upset because I lost a few hundred yuan. I still need to be cautious. From now on, I'll just play a small game. $SPCX is also the source of my confidence. I earned quite a bit from long orders, and now I pay it all back 🥹. I must be extra cautious in the future. #波动雷达: Monitor currency fluctuations

The data hasn't been released yet, but the market is already starting to stir. CME says the probability of no rate hike is 55.6%, while Polymarket and Kalshi push it above 63%. For the same event, there's nearly a 10 percentage point difference. Both markets are betting, but the direction and intensity of their bets differ. This divergence itself is a signal; the market lacks consensus, and Wednesday's CPI will force one side to concede. Expectations after the non-farm payrolls have already been priced in; BTC has been flat around 65000 for this reason—the good news is already baked in. Now the CPI expectation is for continued cooling, with overall at 3.4% and core at 2.5%. If it meets expectations, the market reaction won't be significant because the rise has already happened. But if CPI rebounds beyond expectations, the reversal in expectations will catch the market off guard. I have three possibilities in mind: · CPI continues to decline: no rate hike expectation confirmed, BTC may rally to break through 66000, gold slightly pulls back. · CPI meets expectations but no surprise: market reaction is muted, BTC continues to hover around 65000, waiting for the next catalyst. This is the most likely scenario. · CPI rebounds beyond expectations: rate cut expectations reverse, BTC retests 64000 or even lower, gold and energy benefit, US stocks come under pressure. Low probability events often cause the biggest volatility. The difference in expectations is the anchor for pricing. $SNDK $XAU $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？

The earnings season for AI infrastructure has arrived, and tonight is a critical juncture. Palantir set the example two weeks ago, with revenue growth of 93% and a 12% stock increase. SpaceX reported revenue of 7.8 billion, but expenses reached 18.37 billion, a surge of 550%, with cash burn far outpacing revenue growth. Now, everyone is watching to see if AI can turn a profit. This week's earnings reports are tightly scheduled. Lumentum and CoreWeave will report after the market closes tonight, Coherent tomorrow after the close, Applied Materials the day after, and Cisco is also on the watchlist. All five segments are covered: AI cloud is the computing brain, optical communications are the data veins, equipment is the chip factory, and networks are the connecting skeleton. The pressure varies across segments. Optical communications and AI cloud have the highest order visibility, directly tied to the expansion of computing clusters, with guidance likely to be strong. The equipment sector faces more pressure, with capital expenditure slowing and marginal growth declining. Enterprise network AI has the weakest pull and depends on whether traditional demand can recover. The rules for this earnings season have been set: the current quarter's numbers are just the entry ticket; guidance sets the valuation. The market doesn't care how much you earned in the past three months; it only cares about how much you can earn going forward. Strong guidance gets the buy-in; weak guidance renders good results useless. Optical communications and AI cloud are worth watching closely, as their order visibility is high and they are most likely to exceed expectations. The equipment sector should be observed cautiously, as the capital expenditure risks have not yet been fully cleared. $SNDK $SPCX $SKHYNIX #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

The Hormuz agreement is stuck again, and oil prices have directly soared. WTI crude oil $CL has risen to $80.98, and Brent crude oil $BZ has also risen in sync. Iran has laid out its conditions: lifting the US maritime blockade, US military withdrawal from around Iran, compensation for conflict damages, and unfreezing Iranian assets. Each of these conditions is tougher than the last, making the likelihood of reaching an agreement in the short term quite low. Oman is mediating safe passage negotiations, but full reopening is still some distance away. Geopolitical risks have been heating up all day. The Houthi forces bombed Saudi Aramco's refinery again, and the overall tension in the Middle East shows no signs of easing, keeping oil prices uncertain in their pricing. So why are BTC and ETH falling? The market is recalculating; sustained oil price increases mean rising inflation expectations, which in turn mean the Federal Reserve will find it harder to cut interest rates, and might even raise them again. BTC has dropped to around 64,300, ETH to 1,878, giving back previous gains. Mainstream coins are in a rather awkward position right now. Geopolitical risks push up oil prices → oil prices push up inflation expectations → inflation expectations delay rate cuts → risk assets come under pressure. This transmission chain is currently active, and BTC and ETH are being pressured by macroeconomic logic in the short term. Don't rush to bottom-fish now; geopolitical risks and oil price trends are still unclear, and CPI data is about to be released, so uncertainty is too high. Wait for these two variables to settle before making moves; hold your hand, and act only when the direction is clear. $BTC $ETH #霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？