8.19｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts My approach today is quite clear: mainly short on rallies, no chasing orders before the minutes are released. $BTC surged to 65000 then pulled back again, currently oscillating around 64500. I'm paying close attention to one detail: the funding rate has risen to a nearly 20-month high, but the price hasn't continued upward. Leverage longs are getting more crowded, yet the price isn't keeping up. I won't chase longs on this divergence; instead, I need to be wary of a potential long squeeze. $ETH is currently around 1915, basically still following BTC, with no particularly obvious independent movement for now. So this time, I'm focusing less on the technicals themselves and more on tonight's FOMC meeting minutes. The July meeting itself was a 9-3 vote, with 3 votes leaning towards a rate hike. If the minutes continue to release hawkish signals, market expectations for a rate cut may cool further, and BTC could retest 62000. If the minutes lean dovish, there might be a short-term emotional recovery, but until the macro environment shows clear improvement, I still interpret it as a rebound within a range, not a new major uptrend. My trading plan: BTC: Try shorting in batches between 65000-65600, first target 63800, break below that look for 63000, further down to 62000. ETH: Try shorting in batches between 1930-1950, first target 1880, break below that look for 1840, 1800. Of course, plans are plans. If BTC breaks and holds above 65600 with volume, I will abandon the short bias and not fight the market. Keep positions light before the minutes come out. Trading is not about guessing the news, but preparing in advance: If it rises, what do I do; if it falls, what do I do; if I'm wrong, where do I admit it. What do you think after tonight's minutes, will BTC first go to 62000 or break through 65600 directly? Let's discuss in the comments.

The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.29%. What does this really mean for BTC? On August 18, the 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.29%, hitting a new high since 2007. I think this figure is worth paying attention to. Because for the market, the biggest issue isn’t just that "Treasury yields have risen," but rather: The risk-free rate is becoming increasingly attractive. When even the 30-year Treasury can offer over 5% yield, why would capital take the risk to buy BTC, stocks, or other high-risk assets? So in the short term, rising Treasury yields do put pressure on BTC. Higher funding costs, lower risk appetite, and naturally, liquidity will be affected. But I actually think this situation shouldn’t be viewed only in the short term. Because if the US long-term government bond yields stay above 5%, it actually reflects a bigger issue: The market is demanding that the US government pay increasingly higher prices for its debt. In other words: Previously, people were willing to lend money to the US at very low interest rates. Now the market is saying: "You can borrow, but you have to pay more interest." This is what I’m truly focused on. So I won’t simply interpret it as: US Treasury at 5.29% → negative for BTC. I prefer to see it in two stages: Short term: negative for BTC. High yields attract capital into bonds, putting pressure on risk assets. Long term: it could actually become a logical catalyst for BTC. Because more and more capital will start to think: Besides the dollar and US Treasuries, where else can I put my assets? Gold is one answer. BTC might be another. So seeing gold rise and BTC underperform now, I wouldn’t directly conclude that BTC’s "digital gold" narrative has failed. It might just be that: Gold moves first, BTC is still waiting for its capital cycle. Of course, the biggest variable here is time. If Treasury yields continue to rise, BTC might remain under pressure in the short term. So I won’t ignore short-term risks just because I’m "bullish on BTC long term." Macro logic can be viewed over years, but trading must be done trade by trade. This is a feeling I’ve been having more deeply lately: Investing looks at the endgame, trading looks at the present. What do you think after the 30-year US Treasury yield crossed 5%? Is this a long-term negative for BTC, or the starting point for the next "digital gold" narrative? Let’s discuss in the comments. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

$BTC｜Trading Thoughts for the Morning of August 18 Recently, I am still leaning bullish on this BTC rebound for now. On the hourly chart, MA7, MA20, and MA60 have formed a bullish alignment, and the price has been running near the short-term moving averages, indicating that short-term funds are still biased toward the bulls. But I won’t chase the price just because the moving averages are bullish. I prefer to wait for a pullback. Currently, there is some resistance around 64500. If the price can break above and hold 64500 with volume, there is a high probability of further upward space in the short term. So my approach is simple: BTC: Consider light long positions if it pulls back and stabilizes near 64000, with a target initially at 65500. If it rallies straight up without giving a pullback opportunity, I won’t chase. Because for me, trading is not about catching every move but about entering at positions where risk is controllable. The support area at 62685 is important this time. If it breaks below again and the rebound is weak, the bullish logic needs to be reassessed. The idea for $ETH is similar: Watch for pullback opportunities near 1890, target 1950. Of course, the biggest feature of the market now is— the direction is just starting to become clear, but it’s not yet a time to be blindly optimistic. So this time I will still: Wait for the right position, not chase the price; watch the structure, not listen to emotions. If I’m wrong, stop loss and admit the mistake. If I’m right, let the profits run. What do you think? Can BTC really hold above 64500 this time and challenge 65500 or even higher? Let’s discuss in the comments.👇

#OKX预言家第二季正式上线 ⚽ The OKX Season 2 prediction event has started I just saw that the OKX Season 2 prediction event has begun, so I checked it out. There are quite a few matches to predict this season. La Liga, Ligue 1, and the Premier League are all included. Fans who usually watch football should find it interesting. What's more interesting is that besides participating in predictions, you can also check in daily to earn XP, so you can complete tasks while watching the games. For me, the biggest fun of this kind of event isn't really about whether the predictions are right 😂, but that watching a match used to be just watching the match, and now with the prediction element, it adds a bit more engagement. I'm going to check in and grab some XP 😂 Do you usually watch football? If yes, do you prefer the Premier League, La Liga, or Ligue 1? The event rules are subject to the actual display on the official OKX page.