Let's talk about something counterintuitive: whether you dare to cut losses according to plan basically determines if you can survive in this industry for three years. I've seen too many people—when they get the direction wrong, they refuse to admit it, gradually move their stop loss lower, comforting themselves with "just wait a bit more to break even," and in the end, they hold onto a losing position as a belief, and that belief leads to liquidation. The moment you move your stop loss, you're no longer trading; you're gambling on luck. My rule is simple: set your stop loss before entering the market, and when it hits, exit immediately—no explanations, no falling in love with the position. With $BTC's volatility, the temptation to "hold on a bit longer" is never lacking. The last time you moved your stop loss, did you end up breaking even or getting stuck even deeper?

Every time there's a war or geopolitical news, someone in the comments shouts, "Safe-haven funds are flowing into $BTC." Wake up. This round, gold keeps hitting new highs, silver is soaring, but crypto prices are stagnant—because in the current macro framework, war is not priced as a "safe haven" but as "oil prices rising → inflation → higher and longer-lasting interest rates." Interest rates are the gravitational pull for risk assets. If you want to know whether war is bullish or bearish for crypto, first look at where the two-year US Treasury yield is heading; don't just stare at news headlines and imagine. Treating gold's new highs as bullish for BTC is one of the most expensive illusions in the past six months.

Last night, the bulls were crushed badly, with long and short liquidations nearly at a 9 to 1 ratio. I know how many people got in: seeing $BTC bounce up from the oversold zone, the thought "it's going to reverse" popped into their heads, so they chased in with leverage, only to be wiped out completely by a spike. Oversold is not a buy signal; oversold just means "a sharp drop"; chasing longs during a sharp drop is as foolish as naked shorting at a high — both are using directional feeling as odds. The market doesn't reward bravery, it only punishes itchy fingers. Don't be the kindling in that 90%.

Here's an action that might not fit the "bear god" persona: I've basically been sitting on my hands these past couple of days. It's not that I have no opinion, but this Wednesday there's the CPI—a card that can flip the whole game upside down. Anyone who plays cards knows that the costliest mistake when the hand is unclear is an itchy all-in. Going all-in on a binary event with a full position means if you win, you think you're a god; if you lose, you don't even get a chance to review the game. Save your bullets, wait for the data to reveal the direction before making a move. Real money is never made by forcing it; it's made by waiting. So, are you passing this round empty-handed, or holding your position waiting for $BTC's CPI?

Silly Dodo is completely comfortable now

The most counterintuitive lesson from doing this for a long time: often, "not doing" is the hardest and most profitable move. The screen flashes red and green, your account holds ammo, and you feel an itch all over—once you move your hand, you most likely feed back the profits from the last trade. The real gap isn't who seizes more opportunities, but who resists more bad ones. I'd rather take one or two shots a week than repeatedly enter and exit uncertain positions and wear myself down. Controlling your impulses is more valuable than picking the right direction. How many times did you hold back today?

Bought some spot $CRCL at 63, indeed made a profit by lunchtime😋😋

There are always people DMing late at night asking, "Is the short god still shorting $BTC now?" Tonight, just above 64,000, both the 15-minute and 1-hour charts have plunged into deeply oversold territory, and the funding rate hasn't turned extremely negative yet—shorting at this position is no different from going all-in with a middle pair against a clearly stronger range in poker: low chances of winning and high cost if countered. To short, you need to catch the catalyst at the very first moment, not rush in with red eyes when everyone else is panicking to the extreme. When there's no trend confirmation, being out of position is also a position. Don't be a results-oriented gambler.

NVIDIA rose another 1.8% tonight and casually released an open-source model called Nemotron. Immediately, someone in the group linked the logic "AI is invincible → unlimited computing power → crypto must rise" to $BTC. I poured cold water on that: NVIDIA's stock price and the altcoin in your hand are separated by a vast distance of cash flow. AI is real, and the demand for computing power is real, but this has nothing to do with crypto's funding. Others rise, but yours doesn't—that itself is the most honest signal—the market is telling you the money isn't flowing this way.