These days $BTC has been oscillating between 83,000 and 86,000, and both camps in the comments are suffering: those chasing longs are getting proven wrong, and those chasing shorts are also getting proven wrong. I want to say something counterintuitive: during range-bound oscillations, the best action is "to do less." When playing cards and holding a mediocre hand, the most costly mistake isn’t folding, but betting without an advantage, slowly grinding away your chips hand by hand. The market is the same—without a clear breakout direction, frequent entries and exits only hand over your fees and emotions. The real opportunity is to wait for it to choose a direction and break out of this range with volume. Before that moment, holding no position is also a position—and a high-probability one at that. Patience itself is an edge.

Don't just focus on the crypto circle when watching the crypto circle. Here's a piece of news tonight that's easy to overlook: OpenAI admitted it is still investigating abnormal activities of its AI agents, having found about 24 cases so far and counting, including the leak of dozens of user images. The entire investigation is expected to drag on for several months. Why am I focusing on this? Because the main driver that has simultaneously drained funds and risk appetite this round is the AI narrative. When it rises, all tech assets rise with it; once cracks start to appear—security incidents, regulation, monetization falsification—the pullback is also chain-reactive. I'm not bearish on technology; I'm reminding you: when a sector becomes "the market's faith," its flaws are no longer just its own business. When faith cracks, the risk assets standing nearby catch a cold first.

Fed's Harker said a blunt truth tonight: The US Treasury yield soaring above 5%, hitting a new high since 2007, is not because the market has lost confidence in inflation, but due to three things — rising real interest rates, an unsustainable fiscal path, and AI and the tech sector competing with the bond market for money. What does this mean for $BTC? In the past, we used to interpret high interest rates as "rate hike expectations," betting that once it peaks, it's over. But this time it's different; it's a structural drain: money worldwide is flowing into "risk-free 5%" and AI, squeezing risk assets from both ends. She also added a final point — the current US fiscal path is unsustainable. To translate: this high interest rate environment can't be switched off with a single click in the short term. Don't rush to buy assets that grew relying on low interest rates.

Many people look at my positions confused: holding ETH-related longs on spot while simultaneously having $ETH shorts on perpetuals. Schizophrenic? No. This is called multi-leg expression. What I’m really betting on is never "whether ETH will go up or down tomorrow," but the net exposure—after offsetting the two legs, which side am I actually on and how heavily. Spot forms the base, perpetuals fine-tune the direction; between a rise and a fall, what remains is the slight net exposure I want. It’s the same with playing cards. Experts don’t go all-in every hand; they’re always managing the risk of the entire table, not just the win or loss of a single hand. The most common mistake retail traders make is treating every trade like an all-in that decides life or death. Position size is used to express a viewpoint, not to gamble your life.

To say something different from a few days ago: the macro support for my short position is softening. I've been emphasizing these days that the confidence to be bearish on risk assets comes from macro factors—rising interest rates, increasing oil prices, and a strong dollar, several signals pressing down together. But tonight it changed: crude oil reversed and dropped more than 3 points, inflation expectations cooled down, and European and American stock markets turned positive. Among those signals, two no longer support my view. The only one still strong is the 10-year US Treasury yield, at 5.23%, hitting a new high since 2007; this dark cloud still hangs over risk assets like $BTC. So what is my current stance? Not firmly short, nor turning bullish. When signals are split, the most costly mistake is to stubbornly hold your ground. When the cards change, admit it, adjust your position according to the signals, and don't fight yourself.

Here's a counterintuitive take. Tonight, the Wall Street Fear & Greed Index is still hanging at 72, solidly in the "Greed" zone, yet the $BTC price has been flat for several days. When sentiment is this hot but the price can't rise, that's called divergence. Usually, at this point in the game: everyone thinks they have a good hand and is rushing to throw chips into the pot, but the community cards revealed are all weak. What I’m most cautious about is this "sentiment leads, price lags" combination. It doesn't mean a crash is imminent, but at least it indicates that chasing highs has become a poor value proposition—you’re paying a greed premium to bet on an increasingly narrow margin. The more everyone is bullish, the more you need to check if your chips are still enough.

Last night, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Dow rising nearly 1%, and Dell jumping 5%, showing a clear rebound in risk appetite. According to the script, high-beta risk assets like $BTC should be surging along. So what happened? BTC is still stuck at 84,000, basically flat over 24 hours, stubbornly not joining the party next door. This divergence is worth noting. Money outside is flowing back into stocks, but the crypto space hasn't caught this wave. Either incremental funds haven't entered yet, or endogenous selling pressure is quietly being absorbed—neither explanation is very bullish. In poker, you watch how others bet. If everyone else is raising and you're the only one not following, chances are there's something wrong with your hand.

Shorting $ETH on this leg, many people only focus on the price difference fluctuations, overlooking a steady stream of money flowing into their pockets — the funding fee. Currently, the perpetual funding rate is positive, which means longs pay shorts, settled every 8 hours. In other words, as long as this short position is open, even if the price direction remains unchanged, the account is gradually earning interest. This is the most comfortable aspect of low-frequency large bets: time is on your side. Retail traders always fixate on those few points of volatility, while professional players also calculate the cost of holding positions. For the same direction, some pay fees when going long, others receive fees when going short; this back-and-forth creates a hidden edge in win rate. Ask yourself: Is your current position paying interest daily, or earning interest?

Is there still anyone playing Tian Long Ba Bu?

Why did I choose to short $ETH in this round instead of $BTC? Many people instinctively think to short the weakest one, but I do the opposite—ETH's daily chart structure is actually the strongest among the three coins, sitting on the upper Bollinger Band with RSI in the sixties, fully crowded with bulls. Precisely this kind of "everyone standing on one side" setup offers the best reverse odds. Plus, the perpetual funding rate is positive, so shorting this leg means you actually collect some money from the counterparty every few hours, which makes holding it quite comfortable. Of course, the strongest structure also means the rebound can be the fiercest, so this is a position for wide stop-loss and resilience, not an all-in bet. This is where I place my position direction; gains and losses are on me.