#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 Elon Musk is once again correcting Wall Street. Morgan Stanley released a research report saying SpaceX could reach $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2040. Morgan Stanley also gave an overweight rating and a $300 target price. Musk directly replied on X — I personally estimate that $3.5 trillion could be achieved around 2033. Seven years earlier. The tone is outrageously confident. He also predicted reaching $1 trillion by 2030, and now he’s directly jumping to $3.5 trillion, taking bigger and bigger steps. The difference between these two isn’t just numbers, it’s the commercialization speed of Starship. Morgan Stanley’s model is already quite aggressive, based on two launches per day per launch pad, 5,800 Starship launches per year by 2040, requiring only 8 launch pads. SpaceX’s new base in Louisiana plans for 15 launch pads. That means even if the new base isn’t fully built, SpaceX can still meet Morgan Stanley’s 2040 expectations. But Musk believes even the goals he set for himself are underestimated. The gap between Wall Street and Musk isn’t just seven years, it’s two completely different narrative logics. One looks at the number of launch pads and launch frequency, the other sees Starship, Starlink, and AI computing power integrated into one infrastructure. What do you think? $BTC $ETH

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Have a nice weekend Rest well $BTC

#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK This matter deserves careful consideration. First, the compliance channel has been opened. In May, support was just added for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and within three months it has expanded. SOL, AVAX, and LINK are all top market cap, mature ecosystem coins, indicating that traditional financial giants' acceptance of crypto assets has moved from "testing the waters" to "orderly expansion." Second, it solves the problem of "how compliant funds can buy." Retail investors don’t need to open exchange accounts or fuss with wallets; they can operate directly within their existing stock accounts, just like buying Apple or Tesla shares. The threshold is greatly lowered, which will attract a large amount of incremental capital. Third, the chosen coins are very deliberate. Solana represents high-performance public chains, Avalanche is an EVM-compatible ecosystem, and Chainlink is the leader in oracles. These three cover different tracks, encompassing smart contract public chains and infrastructure. In the future, with staking and physical deposit/withdrawal functions, the channel between on-chain ecosystems and compliant funds will be further connected. In the short term, there are three catalysts: sentiment catalyst—SOL surged over 11% immediately after the news; capital expectation—the potential buying power of 40 million accounts, which even with a low conversion rate, is enough to change the supply-demand pattern; compliance endorsement—this is more effective than any KOL hype, equivalent to Wall Street’s official stamp of approval. The impact on the crypto space is very clear—this is not simply a "listing benefit," but a structural benefit of "compliance channel expansion." What do you think? $SOL

#BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold correlation strengthens ETF inflows continue, and spot buying has indeed not stopped. But on the other side, profit-taking is happening, options hedging is increasing, and shorts are re-accumulating. Large on-chain longs and shorts are both adding positions, with these two forces clashing head-on at the 80,000 threshold. More interesting than the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is another change—Bitcoin is starting to cluster with gold. This means capital is redefining Bitcoin's position. Previously, it was like a tech stock shadow: when the Nasdaq rose, it rose; when it fell, it fell. Now the market is beginning to place it in the "hard currency" basket, alongside gold. Once this narrative is confirmed, the long-term valuation logic for Bitcoin undergoes a qualitative change—tech stocks are valued based on earnings and growth, while gold is valued based on monetary credit and fiscal discipline. The valuation ceilings corresponding to these two logics are not on the same level. In the short term, the bull-bear battle at the 80,000 mark continues, and the direction has not been fully determined. But the signal of strengthened gold correlation is more worth tracking than short-term price fluctuations. What do you think? $BTC $ETH $XAU

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#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Walsh finally spoke. In short, nine words—Inflation hasn't dropped, tightening must continue. Inflation is still above 2%, financial conditions are not tight enough, and the job market remains hot. These three factors combined mean monetary policy cannot ease. Walsh even hinted at possibly considering raising the 2% inflation target, but didn’t say when or how. What the market fears most is this kind of "direction given but no commitment" state. This time he laid out the framework—Inflation, employment, financial conditions; these three determine whether to raise rates or not. It's a bit better than having no direction at all before, but whether there will be action in September remains undecided. The impact on the crypto space is twofold. Short-term expectations are tightening. The probability of a rate hike jumped to 58%, a figure that directly affects US Treasury bonds and the US dollar’s trend. The previous Powell-style "giving you advance notice" approach is gone; from now on, the market will have to bet on every inflation data release. Expectations for liquidity easing have also been postponed. Part of the previous market rally was betting on rate cuts, but now that path is blocked by Walsh. After Bitcoin surged from 64,000 to 80,000, it faces short-term pressure for expectation correction. However, the CLARITY Act vote on September 15 is the real turning point; Walsh influences macro expectations, not the underlying narrative of the crypto industry. This time Walsh has a framework, but the direction is more hawkish than the market expected. Short term, it’s a headwind for risk assets. What do you think? $BTC $ETH

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#StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易 Bitcoin just made a historic move. At 8:48 PM on August 26, block 964199, StarkWare sent the first quantum-resistant transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet. How was this transaction executed? Researchers developed a scheme called QSB, which replaces elliptic curve signatures with hash function-based cryptography within the existing protocol framework. The principle is quite clever. When a transaction waits for confirmation in the mempool, the public key is exposed. If a quantum computer is powerful enough, it can directly derive the private key and steal the funds. QSB’s approach is to not accept the first valid signature but to brute-force millions of candidate signatures until it finds one that does not expose public key data. The entire process runs offline for several hours, costing between $75 and $200. Why is this significant? Bitcoin’s current security system relies on elliptic curve cryptography. Once quantum computers can reliably run Shor’s algorithm, deriving the private key from the public key will be a matter of minutes. Previously, it was believed that defending against quantum attacks required changing the Bitcoin protocol. Now StarkWare has proven that it can be done without protocol changes. Although this only protects coins transferred into the QSB mechanism and does not make the entire Bitcoin network quantum-resistant, the door has been opened. In the long run, a soft fork is still the optimal solution, and StarkWare agrees. But at least it proves that usable tools against quantum threats are already in hand. The cost of a few hundred dollars is negligible for holdings in the seven-figure range.

#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 MicroStrategy, once the top bull, has now changed its approach. This has two layers of impact on the crypto community. First, the market's most steadfast bull has paused, which definitely affects short-term sentiment. People were used to Saylor calling trades weekly and continuously buying, but now that expectation is gone. However, this is not a signal that the bull market is over; he has always added positions at the bottom, just with a different strategy. Second, in the medium to long term, this is actually a good thing. Previously, the high-leverage cycle, once broken, would cause a chain reaction of liquidations. Now, with a $5.1 billion cash reserve plus 840,000 BTC holdings, the foundation is more stable. He himself said he won't be forced to sell coins at low prices. He can survive without cutting losses, and the coins he holds will only become more valuable. Here’s my take. Saylor switching from reckless buying to survival mode precisely shows that this old fox is clearer-headed than anyone. With a $10 billion unrealized loss on the books and $1.76 billion in annual interest payments, borrowing more to buy coins would be truly self-destructive. Stockpiling cash, stabilizing preferred shares, and holding firmly onto 840,000 BTC means he can strike back whenever the opportunity arises. MicroStrategy pausing purchases puts short-term pressure on sentiment, but their core holdings remain untouched, with $5.1 billion cash on hand. The direction won't reverse just because of one strategy change. What do you think? $BTC $ETH $TRUMP