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📊 $BSB Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $983.47
· 4 hours: $1,267.85
· 12 hours: $3,795.04
· 24 hours: $31,700
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $983.47 $0 100%
4h $1,267.85 $0 100%
12h $3,795.04 $0 100%
24h $31,600 $133.34 99.6%
Duokong interpretation
In each cycle, long positions are liquidated and crush short positions (24-hour bulls account for 99.6%), indicating a sustained one-way downward trend. From 1-12 hours, short liquidations are zero, with no resistance to the bears, and the market opens with extreme sell-offs; 24-hour bears only have a small amount of liquidation, while bulls still dominate. Ultimate winner: Bears—prices show a continuous downward trend, and bulls continuously stop losses and clear losses.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 3.1% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 4.0% of 24 hours
· 12 hours account for 12.0% of 24 hours
Liquidations are concentrated in the 12-hour cycle and the latter half, with the total 24-hour volume about 8.35 times the 12-hour period, indicating that the main downward wave erupted within 12 hours and escalated sharply in the latter half. Currently, the market is in a sustained decline dominated by bears, with bulls being systematically crushed. In the short term, attention should be paid to technical recovery signals after oversold conditions.
A one-sentence explanation
$BSB 24-hour long liquidation at $31,600, accounting for 99.6% of the total, with the bullish trend escalating sharply in the latter half and bears winning decisively.
🔥 Market Indicators | July 24
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google's exceeded expectations but came at a heavy cost: total revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud's revenue was $24.77 billion, up 82% year-on-year. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue was $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; but operating profit was only $398 million, a sharp year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin down to just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; while Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are only conceptual but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added moral clauses, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon clearly stated that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion in gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government supervision.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging it into the autumn election will significantly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations succeed, oil prices are expected to fall.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three things outline the core contradictions in the current market: The AI bill is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market with their first-ever negative cash flow that AI is burning faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes the hope of passing the CLARITY Act within the year slim; And how long the pause in geography can last depends on the success of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand Google and Tesla's real answer this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress 之前我提过一个思路：市场流动性差就玩小市值币，流动性充足就重仓大市值币，给大伙捋捋底层逻辑。
不管币圈还是股市，拉升价格都需要资金换手承接。行情冷清、流动性不足时，大盘币很难撬动行情，就算有利好也涨不动；等市场资金充裕、流动性变好，机构和大户只会扎堆大市值标的，方便大额进出，小币种自然没人关注。
就拿最近大涨的柴犬币$SHIB 来说，30亿美金的市值，在当下的市场环境里，越往上走资金承接越吃力，行情很难持续走牛。#Gate.io Temp Worker
Gate's official team continues to claim that Robin, who connects with our ALD community, is an impersonator and a scammer. Here are several core questions that cannot be avoided. Please answer them directly:
1. If Robin is merely an external scammer and not a Gate staff member, an unauthorized impostor, what right does he have to complete the full Gate Alpha listing process and successfully list ALD tokens on the platform?
Gate listing uses an internal multi-layer approval mechanism, making it impossible for outsiders to operate on their own. If outsiders can casually impersonate employees to complete token listings, does this prove that Gate's internal permission management has completely gone out of control, allowing anyone to impersonate staff and lead project listings?
2. We will pay the USDT and ALD corresponding to the listed currency in full according to the matchmaker's requirements. If Robin is considered personal fraud, why did the scammer guide us to transfer funds that ultimately flow into the Gate system, and why did the token launch as scheduled?
Ordinary people commit fraud with the goal of embezzling funds without authorization; Moreover, the successful listing of tokens after this settlement is completely inconsistent with the logic of ordinary scammers.
3. Gate cannot simply use the phrase "the intermediary is a scammer" to unilaterally tear up the token listing agreement reached by both parties.
The successful launch of the token on Gate Alpha is an objective established fact; trading behavior and fulfillment results are real. They cannot enjoy the benefits paid by the project party and refuse to fulfill all agreed obligations on the grounds of "personnel impersonation."
4. We hope Gate will publicly disclose the complete approval process for the ALD launch of Gate Alpha and the internal handling staff.
If Robin has no official authorization, please explain: How did an external impersonator bypass all internal risk controls and approvals to complete the entire listing process? Does this mean there is a major vulnerability in Gate Alpha's listing channel, and all project teams face the risk of being lured by fake personnel?抗量子升级，很有可能会促成比特币出现一次历史级的大底。
原因并不只是量子计算能够威胁部分早期地址，更关键的是它可能迫使比特币社区面对一次前所未有的治理考验。
无论是否冻结中本聪地址、以及那些长年未移动的早期比特币，都会引发巨大的争议。
封，意味着比特币首次主动修改资产规则，“代码即法律”的理念受到挑战。
不封，则意味着理论上存在被量子攻击窃取部分资产的风险，市场信心同样会受到冲击。
真正困难的，从来不是技术，而是共识。
一旦进入升级阶段，社区不同阵营的博弈、矿工与节点的选择、钱包和交易所的兼容，都可能导致共识撕裂，甚至出现链分叉。与此同时，大规模迁移UTXO、升级签名方案，也可能让网络一度变得拥堵，链上手续费显著上升。
因此，量子时代真正考验的，不只是比特币能否升级密码学，而是它是否还能在保持去中心化的前提下，完成一次全球性的共识升级。
历史上，比特币最大的风险往往不是技术本身，而是社区共识。
只有蠢货能轻易说出“把中本聪的币封掉打入黑洞”$BTC $ETH $SOL The target price is directly set at ¥116! Nomura Securities is very aggressive with the valuation of Changxin Technology (CXMT), even calling for a PE premium more than twice that of similar overseas companies.
Before the market opened today, this report went viral in WeChat Moments and trading groups. The core logic is straightforward: Nomura believes Changxin should not be discounted like traditional DRAM cyclical stocks. Instead, due to the monopoly supply from domestic substitution and the surge in storage demand on the AI edge, it should enjoy a very high premium.
What is the core logic?
Nomura predicts that Changxin's customer demand will accelerate over the next few quarters. Against the backdrop of extremely tight supply of domestic HBM and high-spec DDR5/LPDDR5, domestic downstream giants (servers/end terminals) are basically buying as much as can be produced for supply chain security.
Why give a premium twice that of Micron/SK Hynix?
Overseas Micron and SK Hynix are constrained by the global semiconductor macro cycle and capital expenditure fluctuations, with valuations anchored to the global industry cycle; whereas Changxin, backed by the huge domestic consumer and data center market, enjoys a capital revaluation premium from "localization rate going from 0 to 1," shifting the logic from "cyclical stock" to "growth/strategic asset."
What should we watch for and guard against?
Institutional hype often corresponds to a short-term peak in capital heat. A high valuation anchor reflects long-term imagination, but short-term prices have likely already priced in very optimistic expectations.
Judgment and reminder:
The premium logic makes sense, but don’t rush to go all-in at the open in a heat of the moment. Semiconductor production line expansion, yield improvement, and overseas equipment restrictions are all real and tough challenges. Chasing highs risks getting stuck at the peak; waiting for a pullback to see actual orders and capacity fulfillment is the safer play. $CAP 狗庄下一步怎么割？
短期（FOMC前）：价格大概率在0.0155-0.0195美元区间震荡。狗庄会利用Cap的基本面消息反复收割——拉一波吸引追多，反手砸盘。0.022上方全是套牢盘，一时半会解不了套。
FOMC后两种情景：
· 情景一（偏鹰）：CAP大概率跌破0.0155美元，创历史新低。
· 情景二（偏鸽）：可能引发一波反弹，测试0.0185-0.0195美元。
中期：最大变量是84.4%未解锁的代币。私人投资者和团队TGE一周年解锁25%——届时抛压可能直接把价格砸穿。Cap的基本面再好——富兰克林邓普顿站台、TVL 2.59亿、借贷协议排名第二——也架不住代币解锁+宏观紧缩+市场情绪低迷的三重绞杀。
最后一句掏心窝的话：
CAP从0.0245跌到0.0168，一个月跌了30%以上。富兰克林邓普顿站台、TVL 2.59亿、借贷协议排名第二——基本面确实硬。但Stabledrop从1200万砍到420万、推迟1CO、84%代币未解锁——三颗雷全摆在那。0.022已经回不去了，现在追高的老铁，想想自己能不能扛住再跌20%到0.015。管住手，等7月29日FOMC靴子落地，等方向明朗再动手。记住，在币圈活得久，比赚得多重要一万倍！散会！A-share "super giant" listed on the STAR Market, directly putting on a big show!
Today, Changxin Technology (688825) officially went public, with the opening price in the call auction soaring directly to ¥49.5, a 471.59% increase compared to the issue price of ¥8.66!
Financial界
To put it in perspective: one lot on the STAR Market is 500 shares, with a payment principal of only ¥4330. Selling at the opening today would directly net a profit of ¥20,400, with a return rate stronger than many hot financial products.
What thresholds and tricks are hidden behind this feast? Quickly summarizing 3 key points:
Chip logic: Although the issue price was set extremely low (¥8.66), the total market capitalization at issuance reached ¥579.2 billion, raising over ¥57.9 billion. The low unit price combined with the super chip leader status directly maximized market speculation.
Institutional windfall: In the offline placement, 91% of the shares were taken up by public funds, social security funds, and industrial capital (TCL, NIO, Transsion, etc.). Ordinary retail investors who got allotments were extremely lucky; most people actually benefited indirectly through "high concentration storage ETFs" or new share subscription funds.
Trading reminder: The opening immediately gave a valuation of ¥3.3 trillion, with a very high turnover rate. Such large-cap stocks have a heavy first-day sentiment premium; those who didn’t get allotments should not blindly chase the high prices in a frenzy.
New Beijing News
Summary sentence: Such a super new share subscription feast is rare. Those who got in should cash out promptly; those who didn’t should just watch the excitement. The risk of taking over in the secondary market far outweighs the opportunity.【链上揭秘】6W5横盘的猫腻：主力在悄悄“进货”还是“清仓”？
最近大饼在6万5附近上下摩擦，被折磨得没有方向。盯盘久了容易被K线骗，咱们今天跳出图形，直接看链上真金白银的底层数据。
1. 华尔街“大客户”正在密集扫货
6月的获利盘洗盘结束后，现货ETF在7月已经重返强势净流入状态。贝莱德等机构没有停下买买买的脚步。这说明什么？在机构的定价模型里，6万5就是极具性价比的“进货价”。
2. “现货批发市场”库存全面告急
这是目前最关键的一个数据：全网交易所的BTC余额，已经降至2017年以来的最低点！大户们买完货，并没有挂在盘口准备随时倒卖，而是直接提走锁进了冷钱包（自家仓库）。市面流通盘锐减，这是最典型的底部吸筹、囤货待涨的特征。
操作计划：
目前的盈亏比指标（MVRV）已经把短期泡沫挤干，市场的杀跌动能严重枯竭。
在这个位置：坚决不要盲目高倍追空！ 主力正在用时间换空间，默默捡带血的筹码。现货底仓给我拿稳了；合约党耐心依托下方支撑（$63,500-$64,000）寻找右侧低多机会。
大反弹来临前，你们目前的仓位是几成？满仓还是空仓？评论区报个数！！Semiconductors were heavily hit last week, with $INTC dropping nearly 8 points in one day. But during the sell-off, a few stocks actually had clearer fundamentals.
U.S. futures opened higher on Monday, Nasdaq futures +1.06%, VIX slightly down at 18.58. FOMC is on Wednesday, and $MSFT earnings are also this week, all clustered in these few days.
$CDNS. The EDA leader was hit by rumors about Kimi K3's "48-hour chip design." Tool companies fear not AI, but the market taking rumors seriously. Waiting to see how the company responds this week.
$APLD. AI data center, heavily shorted. If $MSFT maintains AI spending on Wednesday, short covering will be significant. Some see 155% upside. High short interest is a double-edged sword; if fundamentals can't hold, shorts adding positions can outpace covering.
$CLS. AI connector, valuation divergence has persisted. Before FOMC, the market is reluctant to reprice high-valuation companies; if interest rate expectations stabilize after Wednesday, the divergence may narrow.
$RMBS. Memory bandwidth is rising, Rambus directly benefits. The more AI consumes bandwidth, the stronger its story. The least impacted by FOMC — not betting on rates, but on data growth.Warning! Bitcoin $BTC is very likely to hit the bottom of this bear market within two to three weeks. Looking back at past bear market patterns, each time the top exchange collapsed and the market bottomed out:
In 2014, Mentougou collapsed, and three weeks later BTC bottomed out; In 2018, BitGrail went bankrupt, hitting bottom in two weeks; In 2022, FTX collapsed and also hit bottom two weeks later.
Now, after 11 years of operation, the long-established exchange BitMEX has announced its closure, replaying the historical script. Currently, market panic is running high, negative news is everywhere, and the last batch of panic sellers fleeing—this is the hallmark of the end of a bear market. Based on past patterns, Bitcoin's short-term bottom is just around the corner. A real bull market often emerges when no one dares to buy the bottom. Everyone can watch for subsequent trends to verify this pattern.#FederalReserve
Wednesday's FOMC meeting might be the hardest to predict in recent years.
Two weeks ago, when the June CPI data was released, the market thought the rate hikes were over. The probability of a July rate hike was once suppressed to about 10%. Among 76 economists, not a single one expected a hike in July. Then oil prices broke $100, overturning the entire narrative. CME data shows the probability of a July rate hike has jumped to 36.3%. In just two weeks, the probability nearly quadrupled.
What does 36.3% mean? It doesn't mean a "high probability of a hike," but it's high enough that you can't ignore it.
The biggest variable comes from Powell himself.
The first thing he did after taking office was to discard the Fed's forward guidance that had been maintained for over a decade. The market used to rely on the Fed's hints about direction, but now Powell says, "Every meeting is live." This means no one can know in advance what he'll do on Wednesday—including those economists writing reports.
But that doesn't mean he has no stance. At the July 14 congressional hearing, he said there is "zero tolerance for persistently high inflation." That's a strong statement but gave no rate guidance. When Powell says "zero tolerance," the 36.3% probability is not just market guesswork.
The Fed is already divided internally. Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Mester have recently expressed concerns about inflation and lean toward rate hikes. Kashkari might also join the dissenters. If there are more than two dissenting votes this week, the market will interpret it as a stronger hawkish signal. On the other side, New York Fed President Williams suggests waiting until September to observe.
For the crypto market, the suspense isn't about "whether to hike" itself, but the signal it sends. No hike but hawkish wording means the market will price in a September hike early; a hike means telling the market "inflation is tougher than expected," putting short-term pressure on risk assets; no hike and dovish tone means a short-term rebound, but Powell's style is unlikely to be like that.
Nomura expects Powell won't give any substantive forward guidance at the press conference. If that's the case, the market can only keep guessing. Uncertainty itself is the biggest risk. And a Fed that gives no roadmap turns every rate decision into a guessing game.
$BTC $BZ $QQQ Leading large models reshape enterprise computing power expenditures and boost risk appetite through API cost-effectiveness. Kimi's pre-investment valuation reached $31.5 billion, ARR tripled in three months, API revenue accounted for over 70%, and enterprise client Coinbase cut AI spending by nearly half through caching optimization. If the cost advantage of cloud inference continues and token usage maintains exponential growth, institutional positions will further concentrate in the high-efficiency model distribution layer. Observation indicators include an increase in the proportion of self-deployment by major clients or price wars squeezing gross margins, causing API revenue to fall below 70%.
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #初请18 7,000 yuan was below expectations, putting pressure on interest rates新的一周开始了，这一周可热闹了！
美伊互相克制休战，重燃谈判希望，布伦特原油顺势跌破90，至少本周风险市场能缓口气。
今天合肥长鑫科技在A股挂牌上市，长鑫科技是国产DRAM龙头，也是科创板史上最大的IPO之一，发行价8.66元，对应上市估值约5800亿元。
周三SK海力士公布Q2财报，我认为这份财报的重要性，甚至不亚于英伟达，是本轮AI行情最重要的风向标之一。
周四美国的PCE数据，如果核心PCE月率高于预期，市场可能进一步押注高利率维持更久，美债收益率和美元走强，科技股、BTC、黄金都可能承压；如果核心PCE月率低于预期，市场则会重新交易流动性改善，对AI科技股和加密资产都是利好。
PCE告诉市场通胀怎么样了，那么同一天的美联储FOMC公布利率决议就是告诉你美联储准备怎么办。
Meta、微软、高通、ARM都于7月29日美股盘后公布2026年Q2财报，和SK海力士一起将共同决定接下来一个季度全球AI科技股和风险资产的方向。
本周结束之后有更多的数据预测Q3、Q4风险市场大概走势。AI是未来，不是泡沫，至少目前还没有产生泡沫！#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ $BTC $CAP 基本面——富兰克林邓普顿站台，但Stabledrop惹了一身骚！
CAP的基本面确实硬——富兰克林邓普顿、Susquehanna、Triton Capital、Flow Traders、野村Laser Digital等顶级机构参投。TVL最高冲到5亿美元，目前稳定在2.59亿美元左右。
但最近出了三件糟心事：
第一，Stabledrop空投从1200万砍到420万。Cap创始人Benjamin承认2月承诺分发1100万Stabledrop时，资金还没到位。ICO proceeds远低于预期，实际只有420万美元。承诺没兑现，社区炸了！
第二，推迟1CO。官方说“宏观市场环境波动加剧”，翻译成人话就是——现在这市场环境，发币卖不上价！
第三，代币经济学是最大雷：总供应100亿枚，初始流通仅15.6%。私人投资者和团队TGE后12个月才解锁，一周年解锁25%。还有84.4%的代币锁着，未来抛压巨大！ 美伊“第二夜停火”让市场紧绷的神经松了下来。特朗普在连续13天空袭后按下暂停键，伊朗方面虽对美方意图存疑，但也同步中止报复性打击，外交斡旋窗口重新打开。
地缘风险溢价瞬间被平仓。WTI原油期货（CL）盘中暴跌逾5%，布伦特跌破90美元/桶；与之相对，标普500指数期货（SP500）亚盘早早拉升，纳斯达克100期货涨超1.2%。避险与风险偏好罕见同框——现货黄金突破4100美元/盎司，白银站上60美元，与此同时比特币（$BTC ）涨超1%，以太坊（$ETH ）更是大涨3%以上，加密市场与贵金属一同受益于“战争溢价”重定价。
这一夜的关键词是“预期差”：当市场意识到霍尔木兹海峡未必真的封锁，原油（$CL ）的多头平仓就成了最拥挤的交易；而美股期货（SP500）与BTC的同向走高，则说明资金在“去风险”与“抢反弹”之间选择了两手抓。
停火是战术还是转折，伊朗的“怀疑态度”已经给了答案——风险溢价可以退潮，但很难消失。#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 #Next Week SK Hynix Is Definitely Bullish｜Earnings Catalyst Landing, Storage Turning Point Recovery Rally Starts
Recently, the storage sector has slightly pulled back, causing many to panic and cash out, but currently SK Hynix (000660.KS/HYMTF) is a typical case of overselling. In the coming week, multiple major catalysts will converge and land. Whether it's the Korean stock or the US ADR, there is short-term recovery potential. Below is a comprehensive explanation of all bullish logic, timing nodes, and catalyst rhythm.
1. Core Strong Catalysts Next Week (All Realized Within One Week, Rally Trigger)
1. July 29, Wednesday Q2 Earnings Release, Explosive Performance Expectations
14 Korean brokerages unanimously forecast: quarterly revenue of 84 trillion KRW, operating profit of 64.1 trillion KRW, a nearly 600% year-on-year surge, with quarterly profit directly exceeding the entire 2025 total, and profit margin maintaining an ultra-high level of 75%-77%.
The market has already priced in pessimistic expectations with the recent pre-drop; as long as the earnings data meet or slightly exceed expectations, capital will immediately flow back to repair valuation. If HBM shipment volume and second-half price hike guidance exceed expectations, a rally will be triggered.
Key points for management's conference call: HBM4 delivery progress, Q3 price hike range for DRAM/NAND, long-term supply LTA orders, US stock buyback plans—each is a bullish ignition point.
2. Samsung Semiconductor Earnings Released the Next Day, Sector Resonance Boosts
On July 30, Samsung will release segmented business data. The storage sector's prosperity will be validated by the two leaders, prompting capital to go long on the entire storage track. Hynix, as the HBM leader, has much higher elasticity than Samsung and will lead the sector's gains.
3. Multiple Foreign Institutions Raise Target Prices Intensively, Sentiment Recovery
Barclays, UBS, and KB Securities have been bullish recently: KB sets a target price of 4.2 million KRW, doubling current price; Barclays sets a US ADR target price of $330, emphasizing HBM long-term contracts locking in cash flow for the next 3 years, with current valuation severely undervalued. Panic from previous bearish brokerage downgrade reports will be quickly digested with these bullish research reports.
2. Medium- to Long-Term Fundamental Hard Logic Supports Next Week's Recovery Continuation
1. HBM Monopoly Position, Orders Locked for 2027-2029 Capacity
Hynix's HBM global market share exceeds 60%. Nvidia Rubin platform HBM4 mass shipments are landing, and Google, Microsoft, AWS have all signed long-term supply agreements over 5 years. Capacity for 2026 and 2027 is fully sold out. Downstream cloud providers lock orders regardless of cost to ensure supply. High-margin products continue to scale, raising overall profit levels.
Traditional DRAM capacity continues to tilt toward HBM, with consumer and server standard DRAM supply passively shrinking. Spot and contract prices continue to rise. Q2 DRAM average price surged over 45% quarter-on-quarter, and institutions predict another 21% rise in Q3.
2. Rigid Supply Shortage, Extremely Long Expansion Cycle, Short-Term Supply-Demand Gap Unsolvable
Yongin new plant Y1 will not start production until 2027, Y2 delayed to the second half of 2028. No new effective capacity in the industry in the past two years. Nearly half of the industry's wafer resources supply HBM. Ordinary DRAM bit supply growth is far below the 35% demand growth driven by AI, with inventory only 4 weeks, a real seller's market.
Unlike traditional cycles: long-term contracts lock 60%-70% of shipments. Even if spot prices fluctuate slightly, the company's profit floor is firmly supported, greatly weakening downside cycle risk. The valuation system is being reconstructed, and the market is still underestimating the stock using old cycle logic, leaving room for recovery.
3. Strong Financial Cash Flow, Buyback Expectations Landing
After the US ADR listing on Nasdaq, the market generally expects the company to initiate a large stock buyback plan. Ultra-high free cash flow (over 140 trillion KRW in free cash flow for 2026) supports buybacks, directly boosting earnings per share and bringing short-term buying momentum.
3. Technical Aspect: Short-Term Pullback in Place, Selling Pressure Basically Released
The stock price has fallen over 30% from the high, entirely due to capital pre-betting pessimistic earnings expectations. Fundamentals have not changed negatively; this is an emotional sell-off, not a logical one.
Current support zone chip holding strength is strong. Next week's earnings report is the emotional reversal turning point. Short-term capital will bet on earnings exceeding expectations. Once the short-term resistance is broken, there is no dense trapped position above, leaving ample rebound space. The storage sector index is stabilizing simultaneously, with sector rally resonance.
4. Next Week's Trading Strategy (Short-Term Adaptation)
1. Entry Window: Enter in batches on dips at the end of this week and early Monday, betting on Wednesday's earnings catalyst;
2. Core Betting Points: Q2 profit meets expectations, HBM shipment data exceeds expectations, optimistic Q3 price hike guidance;
3. Profit-Taking Rhythm: Earnings release triggers the first wave of recovery. If management guidance exceeds expectations, hold for the second wave of rally;
4. Risk Warning: If earnings guidance shows a slowdown in storage price hikes in the second half, take profits and exit promptly (low probability, institutions generally optimistic about continued Q3 price hikes).
Conclusion
The AI storage super cycle is not over. The short-term pullback is purely a pre-betting of negative news. Next week's SK Hynix Q2 earnings report is the market turning point, with triple bullish releases from performance, orders, and institutional ratings. Next week is definitely bullish; don't be shaken out by short-term volatility. Official vote on July 27: 47 in favor, 53 against, 13 votes short of the 60-vote threshold—I stared at this number and laughed for half an hour because I've seen this script too many times: politicians acting, the market paying the price.
🎬 First, the surface view: within a week, from "it's coming" to "no chance"
This week, the crypto world experienced a textbook-level roller coaster:
July 22: The Republican Party released the full 616-page bill text, including ethics clauses, causing the industry to erupt. Polymarket's probability briefly rebounded to 39%.
July 24: Seven Democratic negotiators issued a joint statement saying "the text still has deficiencies." Galaxy Digital's research director immediately cut the 2026 passage probability from 50% to 30%. Senate Majority Leader Thune publicly said the bill likely won't make it before the August recess.
July 27 (today): Official vote, 47 in favor, 53 against, 13 votes short.
The market went from "finally coming" to "basically no chance this year" in just 48 hours.
🔍 In-depth analysis: It's not about insufficient time, but Trump's $1.4 billion "protection fee" not being agreed upon
Many blame "not enough time"—the recess starts August 7, not enough time to complete the process.
But the truth is only one: Trump's $1.4 billion.
Trump's 2025 financial disclosure shows his crypto-related income exceeds $1.4 billion—about $636 million from TRUMP meme coin, over $500 million from World Liberty Financial.
Now, a person who made $1.4 billion from crypto is supposed to sign a bill regulating the crypto industry. How could the Democrats possibly agree?
The Democrats listed a "five loopholes" checklist:
· Restrictions do not cover income flowing through intermediaries or authorized agreements—Trump can still profit through WLF
· Relatives or affiliated companies are not restricted
· Issuers already using Trump's name or image can continue issuing—TRUMP coin continues
· No prohibition on Trump holding or trading digital assets while making policy
· Enforcement authority belongs only to the Department of Justice—state attorneys general have no prosecution rights
The most cunning part: the ethics clause will automatically expire at noon on January 20, 2029—the next president's inauguration day. The current DOJ won't investigate him (the Attorney General himself said "I am Trump's lawyer"), and if future DOJ wants to investigate—the law will have expired.
In plain language: this is not regulation, it's a "temporary license" tailor-made for Trump.
The Republicans want the narrative "we pushed crypto legislation." The Democrats want the narrative "we blocked Trump family profiteering." Both sides are using this bill as campaign ads; who cares about the industry's survival?
The Republicans originally had 53 seats; after Senator Lindsey Graham's death, it dropped to 52 seats, with about 51 votes actually mobilizable. To break a filibuster requires 60 votes, meaning at least 7 Democrats must vote yes—but the 7 Democratic negotiators have publicly said "no."
Tell me, how can it pass?
🎯 So what should I do?
Short term: The bill most likely won't pass; regulatory ambiguity continues. BTC fell from 66,200 at the start of July to 64,000. Funds will withdraw from "compliance-benefiting coins." Stop hyping "August passage" expectations.
Mid term: Thune hopes to "initiate the review process" before recess to keep the flame alive for the September session. But September's session is short, election campaigning starts, making the game much harder. The 2026 legislative window is practically permanently closed.
Long term: The bill is not declared dead, just delayed. The "enforcement instead of legislation" situation continues, with SEC lawsuits still dominating industry compliance risks.
Action advice:
· Don't bet on "pass." 47 to 53 votes, 13 short, unless a miracle happens
· Don't heavily hold "compliance-benefiting coins." Policy expectations cool down, funds are withdrawing
· Cash is king, wait for the shoe to drop. Whether it passes or fails, the moment the news lands is the real entry point
💪 Final honest words
I'm the man who held from $10 to $17, then watched it crash back to $5.5 before returning to $17. I've seen this political noise too many times—when SEC sued Binance, when FTX collapsed, when China banned crypto, every time it was "the end." But in the end?
Real big money is never made by betting, but by waiting.
Thune saying "won't pass" is not the end of the world—it's political games. The market treats it as bad news, so I'll wait for it to bottom out before buying.
Follow me, I don't teach you to bet on news, I teach you to find opportunities in others' panic. Hit follow, so next time politicians act, at least someone whispers in your ear—"Don't move! They're acting!"
#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ @你的爱播Misa @加密兔子 @皮神⚡ @YuChen0216 $BTC $CAP CAP今天这走势可以用四个字形容——利好出尽。6月26号上线当天冲到0.0245美元附近，首日完全稀释估值达到3.25亿美元。上线10天成交额接近9亿美元，在借贷协议里交易量排第二，仅次于Aave。然后呢？一路向南不回头！
各交易所价格有点乱——CoinGlass报0.0168美元，MEXC永续合约0.01868美元，币安现货0.01931美元。差价超过15%，说明流动性还是稀薄。
合约数据更扎心：现货24h成交额787万美元，合约成交额4813万美元——合约是现货的6倍多。持仓804万美元，24h爆仓11.96万美元。这盘子还是赌场，没几个人拿现货！2026 年中：传统金融全面加速布局加密赛道
2026 年 6 至 7 月，全球主流传统金融机构密集加码数字资产，行业正式从观望试点迈入合规基建规模化落地阶段，布局集中在托管牌照、代币化证券、稳定币基础设施三大方向。
合规托管层面，OCC 联邦信托银行牌照成为入场核心抓手。Circle 拿下稳定币行业首张完整信托牌照，摩根士丹利凭同类资质上线 E*TRADE 多币种加密现货交易；嘉信理财直接开放 BTC、ETH 零售交易，直面头部加密交易所争夺散户市场。资管端风向彻底转变，先锋集团新设专职数字资产主管，贝莱德深度参与链上证券试点。
代币化证券迎来里程碑，7 月 15 日 DTCC 完成股票、ETF、美债生产环境链上交易，近 40 家华尔街巨头共同参与，整套清算系统将于 10 月全面商用，传统万亿级证券资产实现链上实时清算与抵押流转。$BTC $ETH
稳定币与链上结算基建同步铺开：Visa 推出专属稳定币平台，打通银行、商户与链上资产支付链路；摩根大通 JPM Coin 存款代币登陆公链服务机构 24 小时结算；三星手机钱包原生兼容 USDC，十亿级终端用户打通零售稳定币使用场景，Robinhood 也自建以太坊二层网络发力代币化股票。
当前市场逻辑已从 “要不要入局加密” 转为如何合规规模化。支付、券商、资管、清算、终端硬件全产业链同步卡位，依托银行牌照重构链上美元分层体系与证券清算底层，区块链正式成为传统金融降本增效的标准化基础设施。📊 $CL 爆仓速览
爆仓规模
· 1小时：$3.03万
· 4小时：$248.94万
· 12小时：$265.46万
· 24小时：$357.43万
多空分布
周期 多头爆仓 空头爆仓 多头占比
1h $3,895.47 $2.64万 12.9%
4h $239.91万 $9.02万 96.4%
12h $240.14万 $25.33万 90.5%
24h $330.56万 $26.87万 92.5%
多空解读
1小时空头爆仓占绝对主导（87.1%），价格短时上涨；但4小时起多头爆仓骤然碾压空头（占比90.5%~96.4%），方向剧烈逆转，转为持续单边下跌；12小时和24小时多头占比稳定在90%以上，空方几无阻力。最终胜出方：空头——呈现“短时上涨→持续极端杀多”格局，多头遭毁灭性清算。
时间分布
· 1小时占24小时的 0.85%
· 4小时占24小时的 69.6%
· 12小时占24小时的 74.3%
爆仓集中于4-12小时周期（合计约74%），说明主跌浪在4-12小时内集中爆发；24小时总量是12小时的1.35倍，后12小时仍有增量但规模减弱。当前处于空头主导的持续暴跌阶段，多头遭系统性碾压，短期需关注超卖后技术修复信号。
一句话解读
$CL 24小时多头爆仓$330.56万占总量92.5%，4-12小时集中爆发主跌浪，空头完胜。
🔥 市场风向标 | 7月24日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：AI的代价、监管的搁浅，以及地缘悬崖边的喘息。
📊 谷歌与特斯拉：AI盛宴的“账单”来了
两份财报揭开了AI叙事的残酷真相。
谷歌超预期但代价沉重：总营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；谷歌云收入247.7亿美元，同比暴涨82%。然而，资本开支高达449亿美元，自由现金流首次转负至-59亿美元。盘后一度跌近5%。
特斯拉增收不增利：营收282.4亿美元，同比增长26%；但营业利润仅3.98亿美元，同比暴跌57%，运营利润率只剩1.4%。自由现金流两年多来首次转负。盘后跌超4%。
信号：谷歌的AI已在云业务中形成收入闭环；而特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus仍停留在“故事”阶段。市场正在惩罚只有概念、没有现金流的AI叙事。
📜 CLARITY法案搁浅：14亿美元的伦理困局
加密行业的监管希望正在消散。参议院共和党虽释放更新文本并加入道德条款，但7名民主党参议员集体否决。参议院多数党领袖图恩明确表示，法案大概率无法在8月7日休会前通过。
根本障碍：特朗普通过加密业务获得的约14亿美元收益成为最大阻力。民主党要求更严格的伦理条款，防止总统在其政府监管下继续从加密行业获利。
Polymarket预测市场显示，年内通过概率已从80%以上骤降至37%。错过8月窗口，拖入秋季选举，2026年通过可能性将大幅下降。
🚢 美军暂停空袭：地缘悬崖边的喘息
当地时间7月25日，特朗普下令美军当天不要对伊朗发动新空袭，结束了此前连续13天的每日打击行动。
暂停空袭前数小时，阿曼代表团已抵达德黑兰，就重启霍尔木兹海峡通航展开谈判，据称已取得进展。布伦特原油此前已突破100美元/桶，若谈判取得突破，油价有望回落。
信号：这是一次战术性暂停——为外交留空间，但美军恢复打击的预案仍在准备中。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出当下市场的核心矛盾：AI的账单正在到来——谷歌和特斯拉用史上首次负现金流告诉市场，AI烧得比想象中更快；监管的窗口正在关闭——14亿美元的伦理困局让CLARITY法案年内通过希望渺茫；而地缘的喘息能持续多久，取决于阿曼斡旋的成败。#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 Don't be dazzled by huge profits and record-breaking numbers: The real report card of Google and Tesla Q2 is all about burning cash
The Google and Tesla Q2 earnings reports that have been flooding the screen these days look extremely lively on the surface.
Google's parent company Alphabet posted revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-over-year, marking the 12th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth; net profit soared directly to $112.1 billion, nearly tripling. The cloud business was even more impressive, with revenue of $24.8 billion, a staggering 82% increase, and backlog orders exceeding $514 billion.
Tesla was no less impressive, with revenue of $28.2 billion, up 26%, hitting a record high, delivering 480,000 vehicles, up 25% year-over-year. Revenue finally broke the $100 billion mark in the past 12 months.
But those who truly understand the industry are focusing on a few other numbers.
Nearly $98 billion of Google's net profit came from unrealized gains on equity investments—SpaceX, Anthropic, and others contributed the bulk. Excluding this part, the operational side isn't as exaggerated. More striking is that free cash flow turned negative for the first time in history, losing nearly $5.9 billion. The reason is simple: capital expenditures doubled to $44.9 billion, and the full-year guidance was raised to $195-205 billion. The AI infrastructure meat grinder is aggressively consuming cash.
Tesla is even more direct. Revenue looks good, but operating profit was only $398 million, halving year-over-year, with profit margin dropping to 1.4%. Free cash flow also turned negative, losing $1.1 billion. Capital expenditures soared to $5.8 billion, with the full year expected to exceed $25 billion. The money is all being poured into Robotaxi, Optimus, and AI computing power. Cars are still selling, but selling cars has become a "side business"; the real bet is on the future.
At this moment, both companies are actually doing the same thing: using today's profits and cash flow to buy tomorrow's AI influence.
Google can still hold up with cloud and search, Tesla barely manages with deliveries and energy storage. The numbers look good, that's true, but the "real report card" is very clear—who makes more money now doesn't matter; whoever first runs through computing power, models, and scenarios is the ultimate winner.
It's normal that the market doesn't understand this immediately. After all, the scores of this exam won't be truly revealed for several years.
#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ 📊 $PUMP (Pump.fun) Real-time On-Chain Analysis (2026.7.27)
---
1. Price Overview
PUMP's current price is about $0.001983**, with a 24-hour increase of about **+30%**, and a 7-day increase of over 30%. 24-hour trading volume surged 512% to $164 million. Its circulating market capitalization is approximately $780 million.
⚠️ The $0.02 you mentioned differs significantly from current data—PUMP's all-time high was $0.008994, never touching $0.02. Please refer to real-time data from mainstream platforms such as OKX and CoinMarketCap.
---
2. Support and resistance levels
🟢 Support Level (from near to far):
· 0.00170: Breaks above the upper boundary of the previous multi-week consolidation zone
· 0.00159: 20-day SMA moving average
· 0.00153: 50-day SMA moving average
· 0.00140-0.00150: After major unlock, the lower edge of the core oscillation zone; if it loses, the trend weakens
🔴 Pressure level (from near to far):
· 0.0020: Key short-term psychological level
· 0.0021: Recent selling price of the team's associated address
· 0.008994: All-time high
RSI at 68.30, close to overbought but not yet entered.
---
3. On-chain market player movements
🐳 Whale Position Swap Entry: On July 27, a Fartcoin whale exchanged all 1.71 million Fartcoin (worth $2.28 million) for 790.41 million PUMP.
🏦 Divergence between bulls and bears intensified: a whale spent $10 million to buy 2.5 billion PUMP and began taking profits—eight hours ago, deposited 250 million tokens ($1.53 million) to Binance, still holding 2.25 billion tokens (about $13.6 million), with cumulative profits exceeding $5 million. Additionally, whales withdrew 3.118 billion PUMP ($9.22 million) from multiple CEXs.
🏢 Team linked address sell-off: Pump.fun linked address "77DsB" liquidated 3.75 billion PUMP tokens for $8.02 million USDC, with an average selling price of $0.0021. Another affiliated address deposited 1.21 billion PUMP ($2.57 million) into Bitget.
📈 KOL Driving Effect: Renowned analyst Ansem publicly disclosed a $1.5 million PUMP position, causing the token price to jump over 23%.
---
4. Positive and negative factors
✅ Positive factors:
· Massive buyback and burning: The platform has cumulatively invested about $410 million in buybacks and burned over 151.1 billion PUMP tokens (accounting for over 15% of total supply), with a daily buyback of about $400,000
· Strong platform revenue: cumulative revenue has surpassed $1.08 billion, making it the first project in the Solana ecosystem to reach this scale
· Meme market rebounds: Solana meme coin heat rebounds, DEX trading volume once reached $725 million on Pump.fun day
· Unlocking pressure effectively offset: after the 82.5 billion major unlock on July 12 (worth $125-135 million), the price did not collapse, and the buyback scale basically covered about $12 million per month of unlock release
· Product Continuous Iteration: Launched the "Pump.fun GO" task bounty platform, turning meme attention competition into task economy
❌ Negative factors:
· ⚠️ Unlocking pressure remains: Team+ investors still hold 330 billion locked tokens, with July PUMP being one of the tokens with the highest risk of undilution
· Team Sell-off Concerns: Founder Denies Rumors of "Cashing Out $400 Million," but Associated Addresses Continue to Sell Off Shares Sparks Market Concerns
· Down more than 78% from its all-time high: The current price is still significantly lower than the ATH ($0.008994).
· Airdrop promises have yet to be fulfilled: Pump.fun announced it has been a year since the airdrop, and users are still waiting
---
5. Comprehensive assessment
$PUMP After the major unlock, it showed strong resilience—steadily climbing from the $0.0014 range to $0.00198, with whale positions switching in + KOL orders + trading volume surging 512%, forming a short-term bullish signal. The platform's $410 million buyback and burn mechanism provides solid price support for the token.
Key observation: 0.0020 is the lifeline that bulls must break; breaking above opens upside space; 0.00170 is a pullback to a key defensive level; a loss could lead to a return to the 0.0014-0.0017 consolidation range. Intensified whale disputes + continued shipments from team-linked addresses + massive unlocking with a ceiling to come, with medium-term bullish and bearish competition remaining intense. It is recommended to closely monitor on-chain buyback data and whale movements. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, progress #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 in negotiations for the opening of the strait RIVNUSDT continues to show resilient strength with improving technical momentum.
Market structure remains intact with controlled price action.
EP
15.90 - 16.15
TP
TP1 16.50
TP2 16.95
TP3 17.60
SL
15.60
Liquidity remains healthy around support, reaction is constructive, and the current structure supports trend continuation.
Let’s go $RIVN On July 25, the main Nasdaq server experienced the most devastating patch incident of the year, where millions of paying players on core servers had their asset panels forcibly wiped out 3.7% of their combat power within just one week!
As a core numerical architect, I glanced at this system log, and it was clear that this wasn't just ordinary player trading fluctuations, but the economic model of the core SSR heroes (tech giants) on the main server had completely collapsed. Tesla plunged 14% in a single week, meaning the damage coefficient for core output was cut in half by the developers; Google (Alphabet) pulled back 7%, and SanDisk directly dropped its 11% cap. This round of earnings season "numerical nerfs" has forcibly pushed the main service index down to 24,975 points. While the top pay-to-win guilds are being forced to liquidate assets by the system and can't save their active retention rates after three consecutive versions, the entire game's economic cycle has fallen into a terrifying liquidity deadlock.
Even more critical is disturbances in the global map's environmental parameters. WTI crude oil, the basic resource consumption system, recently triggered a global military upgrade event in the Strait of Hormuz due to a geopolitical NPC, pushing the fuel extraction cost to a high of $92. Although Friday's close slightly fell back to $88.90, the entire weekly chart still carries a high +5% damage debuff. In the game's economic structure, the high underlying energy costs mean that every cross-server transaction by all secondary market players is subject to extremely expensive gas fee premiums. If the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz drops further and drops, this global debuff will continue to stack, completely locking the main server's inflation cooldown.
Now let's look at the cross-server mapped on-chain derivative token $XSOXL. This thing is essentially a death dungeon with triple leverage enabled! When the main server tech giants' numbers collectively collapse or the Nasdaq breaks through key defense towers, $XSOXL's endogenous mathematical model triggers extremely brutal negative compounding and friction loss. The automatic rebalancing algorithm for leveraged tokens, during consecutive one-sided declines, is practically a code-level automatic sacrifice system—every time the market drops by one percentage point, the underlying balance mechanism forcibly sells spot assets to maintain leverage, dragging retail investors into a death spiral.
When a game's physics engine starts to lose packets frequently, while the underlying numerical planners keep bombing financial reports, those players trying to bottom-fish in high-leverage dungeons are just waiting for the system to completely clean up useless redundant data.
#影响周期·Weekly #传统金融·US Nasdaq·Crude Oil #纳指·24975·-0.64%·Weekly -3.7%$LAB Let's look at the surface first. Over the weekend, the market was grinding between 0.144 and 0.161. The daily chart rose slightly by 4 to 6 points. Trading volume shrank to 18 million. Market cap was 49 million. It dropped 99.4% from the 27-dollar high. RSI is neutral. The moving averages are holding down. Unless volume increases and it breaks through 0.17, or it continues to decline and test bottoms. Most likely, it's the latter. The first thing is that unlocking is the biggest enemy. $BTC $ETH ZachXBT's accusations are old news. Team sell-offs, OTC sales, 95% of circulating supply controlled. The market has been digesting these issues for a month The price fell from 27 to 0.16. Those who should have run have left, those who should have been stuck have been stuck, but the unlocking won't stop. Every day, 1.87 million tokens are rushing into the market, continuing until 2028. This isn't a one-time negative news but a continuous selling pressure. Every day you hold on, 1.87 million new tokens are looking for buyers. Even worse, on August 14, hundreds of millions of tokens were unlocked on a cliff. The second thing is: the product is real, but no one uses it. LAB's trading terminal does work: cross-chain AI engine, unified interface. The platform's daily trading volume is 600,000 to 1 million USD. It's okay for ordinary projects, but for a market value of 49 million FDV still has over a billion tokens, and this income can't even cover a fraction of the unlocked value. I've done buyback and burning, with a 1% supply level, about 10 million coins, but unlocking 1.87 million coins daily, which is offset by one burn every ten days. Third, there are sticky technical signals. Over the weekend, the price has been grinding between 0.14 and 0.16, with no explosive volume or breakout. This kind of pattern usually means after a crashCrypto Circle Hotspot Report: Significant Price Discrepancy Appears in Changxin Technology Cross-Market Trading
On July 27, domestic storage chip leader Changxin Technology officially debuted on the STAR Market, triggering a trading frenzy simultaneously in both domestic and overseas derivatives markets. The CXMT stock contract linked to Changxin Technology on the trade.xyz platform saw trading activity surge to the maximum.
According to current market data, the contract's daily turnover exceeded $59 million, with market open interest surpassing $88 million, clearly indicating strong overseas capital attention on the long-term narrative of domestic storage substitution.
In terms of price movement, the CXMT contract opened high but closed lower, with the platform's real-time quote at $6.6; meanwhile, on the A-share STAR Market, Changxin Technology's current price is ¥44.3 RMB, showing a clear price discrepancy between the two markets.
Two signals can be read behind this price gap: first, overseas capital had previously speculated on the listing premium in advance, with early profit-taking by bulls causing the contract price to fall; second, on the A-share listing day, investor enthusiasm was strong, with on-exchange demand far exceeding that of the on-chain derivatives market.
As the first core A-share stock to enter the overseas DeFi derivatives track, the popularity of Changxin Technology contracts also confirms that global capital continues to favor the domestic semiconductor substitution sector. The subsequent pace of price convergence between the two markets is worth ongoing monitoring. #三星Galaxy钱包将原生支持稳定币 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 《我买了2倍做多S&P 500，S&P涨了，我亏了——一个币圈老韭菜的觉醒》
兄弟们，今天讲一个悲伤的故事。
我，一个在币圈被割了108次的老韭菜，决定换个赛道玩玩。听说美股有个叫“2倍做多S&P 500”的ETF，S&P涨1%它就涨2%，稳！于是我卖了半仓狗狗币，梭哈了这玩意儿。
一个月后，S&P 500从100点涨到了101点——涨了1%！我美滋滋打开账户一看：亏了4%。
我擦了擦眼睛。标普涨了，我亏了？这就像你女朋友说“我就出门买个奶茶”，结果三个月后回来告诉你她在西藏开了家民宿——逻辑呢？
后来我才知道，这叫 “波动损耗”（Volatility Decay） 。杠杆ETF承诺的倍数只对“单日”有效。为了维持2倍杠杆，基金经理每天收盘后都得追涨杀跌——涨了加仓、跌了减仓。
举个例子你就懂了：假设S&P第一天跌10%，第二天涨11.1%回到原点。你以为自己盈亏平衡？错！3倍杠杆ETF第一天亏30%，第二天涨33.3%，最终净亏7%。标的一分没少，你的钱没了——这就是数学版的“钱去哪了”。
更惨的是震荡行情。S&P每天±10%来回震20天回到原点，2倍杠杆ETF净值只剩79.78%。20%就这么没了，比某些山寨币跑得还快。
听着耳熟吗？币圈的杠杆代币一模一样——3倍做多BTC、5倍做多ETH，震荡行情里净值天天磨损，跟被矿工手续费一点点啃掉似的。你以为在“抄底”，其实在帮做市商交保护费。
所以结论很简单：杠杆ETF是交易工具，不是信仰。想长期持有？不如直接买现货，然后对着K线念经——至少念经不收费。
（声明：以上内容不构成投资建议，本人已亏光，正在天台吹风，信号不好，勿念。）$BTC $ETH $DOGE 📊 $LAB 爆仓速览
爆仓规模
· 1小时：$1.80万
· 4小时：$3.76万
· 12小时：$13.49万
· 24小时：$23.55万
多空分布
周期 多头爆仓 空头爆仓 多头占比
1h $1.78万 $158.69 99.1%
4h $3.52万 $2,476.45 93.4%
12h $5.75万 $7.75万 42.6%
24h $14.40万 $9.15万 61.2%
多空解读
前4小时多头爆仓碾压空头（多头占比93.4%~99.1%），价格持续下跌；12小时周期空头爆仓$7.75万反超（占57.4%），价格大幅反弹；24小时多头爆仓$14.40万重新占优（占61.2%），方向逆转，杀多行情回归。最终胜出方：空头——呈现“下跌→反弹→更强下跌”格局。
时间分布
· 1小时占24小时的 7.64%
· 4小时占24小时的 15.97%
· 12小时占24小时的 57.28%
爆仓集中于12小时周期（近六成），说明主战场在12小时内集中爆发；24小时总量是12小时的1.75倍，后12小时多空博弈持续，杀多行情在后半程持续升级（后12小时爆仓约$10.06万）。当前处于多空激烈博弈的转折阶段，方向已转向杀多，短期需关注下跌持续性。
一句话解读
$LAB 24小时多头爆仓$14.40万占总量61.2%，方向反复拉锯后空头最终胜出，杀多行情在后半程持续升级。
🔥 市场风向标 | 7月24日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：AI的代价、监管的搁浅，以及地缘悬崖边的喘息。
📊 谷歌与特斯拉：AI盛宴的“账单”来了
两份财报揭开了AI叙事的残酷真相。
谷歌超预期但代价沉重：总营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；谷歌云收入247.7亿美元，同比暴涨82%。然而，资本开支高达449亿美元，自由现金流首次转负至-59亿美元。盘后一度跌近5%。
特斯拉增收不增利：营收282.4亿美元，同比增长26%；但营业利润仅3.98亿美元，同比暴跌57%，运营利润率只剩1.4%。自由现金流两年多来首次转负。盘后跌超4%。
信号：谷歌的AI已在云业务中形成收入闭环；而特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus仍停留在“故事”阶段。市场正在惩罚只有概念、没有现金流的AI叙事。
📜 CLARITY法案搁浅：14亿美元的伦理困局
加密行业的监管希望正在消散。参议院共和党虽释放更新文本并加入道德条款，但7名民主党参议员集体否决。参议院多数党领袖图恩明确表示，法案大概率无法在8月7日休会前通过。
根本障碍：特朗普通过加密业务获得的约14亿美元收益成为最大阻力。民主党要求更严格的伦理条款，防止总统在其政府监管下继续从加密行业获利。
Polymarket预测市场显示，年内通过概率已从80%以上骤降至37%。错过8月窗口，拖入秋季选举，2026年通过可能性将大幅下降。
🚢 美军暂停空袭：地缘悬崖边的喘息
当地时间7月25日，特朗普下令美军当天不要对伊朗发动新空袭，结束了此前连续13天的每日打击行动。
暂停空袭前数小时，阿曼代表团已抵达德黑兰，就重启霍尔木兹海峡通航展开谈判，据称已取得进展。布伦特原油此前已突破100美元/桶，若谈判取得突破，油价有望回落。
信号：这是一次战术性暂停——为外交留空间，但美军恢复打击的预案仍在准备中。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出当下市场的核心矛盾：AI的账单正在到来——谷歌和特斯拉用史上首次负现金流告诉市场，AI烧得比想象中更快；监管的窗口正在关闭——14亿美元的伦理困局让CLARITY法案年内通过希望渺茫；而地缘的喘息能持续多久，取决于阿曼斡旋的成败。#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 $CORE The project side keeps making empty promises and bluffing every day, but now they never mention the four truths behind the buyback:
1. The original buyback was just empty promises of acquiring new customers from start to finish, completely failing to establish a solid foundation
At the end of last year, the official heavily promoted its 2026 core strategy: all SatPay and LST staking fees would be used to buy back CORE in the secondary market, creating a value flywheel.
But now, the current situation is completely unable to fulfill the promise:
1. Core cash flow product SatPay continues to be delayed
Originally planned for global commercial and physical debit cards in the first half of the year, only scheduled beta testing has been available today, with no large-scale merchant or offline payment scenarios, no stablecoin fee revenue, and no profit to buyback.
The so-called Bitcoin Power Grid is just a packaging term for its own ecosystem, not an external partnership, with no new paying users and zero continuous cash flow across the entire ecosystem.
2. No regular large-scale buyback records can be found on-chain
Formal BTCFi project buyback meetings publicly disclose wallet addresses and monthly buyback amounts, but Core never dares to publicly disclose buyback accounts; There are only a few small market-making orders on the board, not the promised revenue buybacks. Even if a small amount of coins are bought back, they won't be burned. In the end, they flow back into the foundation pool, and can still be sold off later, making it impossible to achieve price support through deflation.
3. The original automatic gas burn mechanism was quietly adjusted; fees no longer burn tokens and all tokens are transferred to the foundation's operating pool, increasing circulating supply, which is completely opposite to the deflationary repo promotion back then.
2. The project team is overwhelmed with its own resources, with all cash flow just enough to keep operations going, and not a single cent will be used to support tokens
The entire project lacks self-sustaining ability; all expenses can only be sustained by selling off the team and the treasury's zero-cost chips:
1. Team salaries, Hong Kong summit PR, paid KOL placements, exchange market-making fees, node subsidies—all unlock CORE by selling to exchange for USDT. All stablecoins are used to run projects, with no idle funds to buy coins on the secondary market.
2. Nearly 200 million CORE stablecoins have already been pledged for loan in the treasury, and will be sold off in batches to repay debts. The foundation will only keep releasing coins into the market, unable to reverse buy to support the price.
3. Tens of millions of team shares are linearly unlocked every month, with massive zero-cost tokens continuously flowing into the market. Even if you invest a small amount of funds to buy back, it can't withstand selling pressure and won't reverse the decline. Buybacks only attract retail investors to question you for solid evidence, so they simply keep silent.
3. Market and public opinion reverse; bringing up buybacks again will only get everyone contradicting them and deliberately avoid the topic
1. The coin price has continuously hit new lows, plunging 99.6% from a high of $6.90, with most holders losing over 95%. Whenever the official team dares to mention buybacks, everyone will ask: if you want to use money to support the price, why does the coin price keep dropping every day? Unable to provide on-chain evidence of payment, the lies are directly exposed, intensifying negative emotions within the community.
2. Now, Planet and the community are full of solid screenshots of quantitative trading and unlocking cash-outs, with trust completely collapsing and vote-boosting collectively losing their voices. In the past, they relied on "buybacks and hundredfold" strategies to attract retail investors all-in; now, with no new investors to pull in, there's no need for a get-rich-quick narrative. The promotional focus has shifted to institutional nodes and compliant layout, avoiding all promises of rewarding retail investors.
3. Previously, buyback calls were made to create expectations of price increases, inducing retail investors to bottom-fish and pledge to lock positions, making it easier for project teams to sell goods; Right now, the market is full of deep traps. Occasionally, we just need to issue ecosystem announcements to stabilize everyone from collectively cutting losses and to keep the supply chain for shipments. There's no need to keep pursuing buyback empty promises.
4. The core business is selling to cash out; buying back to protect the market is completely at odds with the team's interests
1. The project team holds a total of 700 million controllable chips at zero cost. The current primary goal is to liquidate in batches during the lukewarm dip. If large-scale buybacks are actually executed, the short-term price will rise, which would actually increase the cost of subsequent sell-offs, which does not align with the user's cash flow interests.
2. Throughout the process, quantitative robots use equal sell orders to break down the market in layers, deliberately suppressing prices. On one hand, they send positive news to create a slight rebound to attract bottom-fishing, while on the other, they take the opportunity to sell and unlock chips. Constantly throwing coins at one hand while promising to buy them back is inherently contradictory, so it's simply not mentioned at all.
3. Nominally, it is a decentralized DAO community co-governance, but in reality, treasury allocation and market-making strategies are solely controlled by the core team. The community has no authority to supervise chip disposal, and no external force forces the team to fulfill buyback commitments. If possible, they play dumb.
⚠️ Risk warning: Virtual currency trading speculation is an illegal financial activity in China. The content only objectively breaks down project narratives and operational logic, and does not constitute any investment or trading advice.Today (2026-07-27), ETH saw a significant rally (about 3%~4% increase, approaching $1950~$1965), mainly due to the resonance of three factors: fading negative news + capital rotation + on-chain supply contraction, rather than a single factor driving geopolitical risk mitigation (core catalyst). • Over the weekend, news broke that the US and Iran had suspended mutual attacks, and Iran and Oman made progress in negotiations on shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily easing fears of full-scale conflict in the Middle East. • Previously, oil prices broke 100 and interest rate hike concerns suppressed risk assets. Now, as risk aversion retreats, Brent oil retreats, funds are flowing back into crypto and other highly elastic risk assets, and BTC and ETH have rebounded simultaneously. Institutional funds lean toward ETH • US spot ETH ETFs have recently seen continuous net inflows (with net inflows in the tens of millions of dollars for several consecutive days), while BTC ETFs previously saw net outflows, indicating institutional capital is rotating internally and favoring increased ETH holdings. • The market is expecting a "Knockoff Season" of capital rotation (the Knockoff Season Index rose to around 58), with ETH, as the leader, benefiting first and outperforming BTC. On-chain supply contraction (fundamental support) • Ethereum validator exit queues have dropped to zero, while about 2.5 million ETH are queuing to enter staking, with a staking rate hitting a record high of 33.6%. A large amount of circulating market is locked up, structurally compressing short-term selling pressure and providing price support. Technical oversold recovery • ETH dipped a few days agoAmazon's latest earnings report: what’s really worth watching might not be revenue growth
The market has grown accustomed to Amazon telling a growth story: e-commerce recovery, stronger advertising, AWS accelerating again, plus a bit of AI imagination. The stock price always seems to find reasons to keep rising. But before the Q2 earnings release, I want to focus on a less "exciting" metric—cash flow.
Amazon’s Q1 numbers were not bad. Net sales reached $181.5 billion, up 17% year-over-year; AWS sales hit $37.6 billion, up 28%, which is a substantial growth rate. More notably, AWS operating profit reached $14.2 billion, becoming a stable anchor for the group’s profits. The advertising business also continued to expand, with management revealing that advertising revenue over the past 12 months has exceeded $70 billion. Looking at these alone, Amazon is still a high-speed machine.
The problem is, growth is becoming more expensive. The company’s operating cash flow over the past 12 months reached $148.5 billion, up 30%, but free cash flow was only $1.2 billion, far below last year’s $25.9 billion. The reason is not mysterious: capital expenditures on property, equipment, and related infrastructure increased by $59.3 billion over the past year, mainly invested in AI. In other words, Amazon is using today’s cash to buy future computing power, chips, and cloud service market share.
Whether this investment pays off depends on three key factors.
First, can AWS growth continue to cover capital expenditures? Will customers be willing to keep AI training and inference on the cloud long-term, rather than just short-term trials? If orders come from just a few large customers making concentrated purchases, revenue may look impressive, but the payback period could be longer than the market expects.
Second, can custom chips bring real gross margin improvements? Amazon disclosed that the chip business composed of Graviton, Trainium, and Nitro has annualized revenue exceeding $20 billion and maintains triple-digit growth. This number looks great, but investors ultimately want to see not just "how many chips were sold," but whether these chips reduce AWS’s unit computing cost and retain customers.
Third, can the retail side continue to generate cash? North America’s Q1 sales were $104.1 billion, with operating profit of $8.3 billion, and both delivery efficiency and advertising monetization are improving. If e-commerce and advertising can keep contributing cash, the group has more room to bear AI infrastructure investments; conversely, if retail profits are eaten up by logistics, labor, and promotions, AWS’s high growth could be slowed by capital expenditures.
So, for the July 30 earnings report, I won’t just focus on AWS year-over-year growth, nor only on management’s AI statements. I will pay attention to capital expenditure guidance, when free cash flow will recover, and whether large customer contracts can convert into sustained usage. Amazon now most resembles a company expanding a highway: traffic is indeed increasing, but the toll booths are not fully built yet.
For investors, this is not simply good or bad news, but a shift in valuation logic. In the past, people were willing to pay upfront for the "future of cloud and AI," but going forward, they need to see these investments turn into repeatable revenue and profits. If AWS maintains high growth, advertising continues to expand, and free cash flow rises quarter by quarter, the market will understand today’s heavy investment as a moat; if cash flow remains sluggish, even the most compelling AI narrative could become an expensive bill.
I will recheck these three indicators after the earnings release. As for market sentiment, risk appetite in digital assets often reflects tech stock volatility in advance; BTC’s trend can serve as a sentiment thermometer but cannot replace judgment on company cash flow.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. #财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ $BTC Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and pay attention to risks. The recent market has been very clear, with funds flocking to Bitcoin-related sectors. BRC20 and BTC Layer 2 have been active in turn. Not only have ORDI and SATS risen, but many Bitcoin forks have also been mined by capital. BCH has recently surged against the trend, and many people are curious about the logic behind this long-established coin's rise. Today, let's dive into it thoroughly. Veterans familiar with the early crypto world know that BCH Bitcoin Cash was born from Bitcoin's famous block scaling divergence. At first, the community was fiercely controversial about Bitcoin's development path, which ultimately led to the hard fork BCH. Its core design idea is to expand the block and lower the transfer threshold, aiming to create a cryptocurrency suitable for everyday micropayments. Over the years, BCH has built a large consensus among loyal veteran players, ensuring liquidity remains consistently active. However, for a long time recently, all market attention has been stolen by inscriptions and BTC Layer 2, and BCH has been neglected for a long time, with its valuation remaining at a low level. Current market situation: The overall market is oscillating back and forth without forming a unified main theme, but the Bitcoin ecosystem is emerging as an independent market. The sector's popularity continues to spread outward, and funds are no longer just focused on inscription tokens, but are now searching for low-level spots within the Bitcoin sector. BCH took advantage of this wave of increased volume to rally, making a strong rebound amid a volatile market. After a long grinding phase at the bottom, chips were fully exchanged, and selling pressure was significantly reduced compared to before. The core logic behind this round of rebound rise: Currently, market funds are showing a clear sector diffusion effect. Initially, funds mainly targeted BRC20 inscriptions and Bitcoin Layer 2 targets, and as related stocks were held,US-Iran talks return to the table, triggering a major pullback in geopolitical premiums, with crude oil stocks plunging collectively. 1. The biggest driver of this round of oil price increases: supply panic caused by Middle East conflict. The market had previously been betting on shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in oil supply, which had already priced in large war premiums. Now that negotiations have returned to the agenda, the probability of large-scale direct battles has decreased, funds are concentrating to close long positions, and premiums are being quickly squeezed out. 2. Transmission chain: Oil prices fall→ easing energy inflation pressure→ delaying Fed rate hikes, and boosting expectations for rate cuts. This macro theme will continue to affect all risk assets worldwide. This development could break through the $80 mark for crude oil $#美军暂停对伊空袭, and negotiations on the strait navigation would make progress @天才交易员绿毛 @BTC the stars @天才少女秋秋 @OKX planet □□ 美联储继续注入流动性。
本周，美联储资产负债表达到 $6.74 万亿，创 16 个月新高。
自 2025 年 12 月结束 QT 以来，美联储已向经济注入 $2116 亿。
但这不是 QE——是技术性调整，用短期国债替换到期 MBS，维持银行准备金。
宏观流动性在改善，但不是大规模宽松。📊 $HYPE Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $1,435.59
· 4 hours: $184,300
· 12 hours: $304,900
· 24 hours: $413,900
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $1,435.59 $0 100%
4h $4,157.57 $180,200 2.3%
12h $16,800 $288,000 5.5%
24h $50,100 $363,700 12.1%
Duokong interpretation
Shorts in each cycle crushed the bulls (24-hour short positions accounted for 87.9%), indicating a sustained short-squeeze rally. The 4-hour and 12-hour short positions accounted for as much as 94.5%~97.7%, making it the most intense short squeeze window of the day; The 24-hour bullish counterattack has strengthened, but bears still dominate. Ultimate winner: Bulls—Bears face large-scale liquidation, prices continue to rise strongly.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.35% of 24 hours
· 4 hours account for 44.5% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 73.7% of 24 hours
Liquidations are concentrated in the 4-12 hour cycle (about 74% in total), indicating that the main short squeeze wave erupted within 4-12 hours; The total 24-hour volume is 1.36 times that of the 12-hour period, with some growth in the last 12 hours but a weaker scale. Currently, the market is at the end of the high level of the short squeeze phase, with bears suffering heavy losses, but caution is needed regarding profit-taking pressure.
A one-sentence explanation
$HYPE 24-hour short liquidations totaled $363,700, accounting for 87.9% of the total. From 4 to 12 hours, concentrated bursts forced the main bearish rally, with bulls winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress 📊《欧易社区多空情绪图谱》(7.26-7.27样本，851条帖子)
一、样本分布BTC提及262条｜BTC 提及262条｜
$BTC 提及262条｜$ETH 250条｜$SOL 42条｜美股(英伟达/特斯拉/谷歌等相关)108条
二、原始多空口径统计(仅按贴文明确表态归类，不做主观判断)
BTC：看多50 / 看空25 / 观望中性31，其余为盘面陈述
ETH：看多50 / 看空28 / 观望27
SOL：看多7 / 看空2 / 观望9(样本小，多跟随大盘表态)
美股：看多8 / 看空16 / 观望12——明显偏空，谷歌/特斯拉自由现金流转负、马斯克单周财富蒸发约1300亿美元是主因
三、开仓点位聚类(仅摘录贴文出现的进场/挂单价，未加工)
BTC：63500-64000、64000-64777、65000-66000、66800附近均有提及，多空双向下单；64200/64630被反复提及为多空分水岭
ETH：1800-1850、1850-1900、1900-1950为主要进场区间，1900为反复提及的心理关口
恐慌贪婪指数多次出现26-28(恐惧区)，最高一次39
ETH 24小时爆仓中空头占比一度达78.7%-100%，多次出现逼空
BTC现货ETF单周净流出约17.9亿美元(创纪录)，同期ETH ETF持续净流入
CLARITY法案年内通过概率从年初80%以上跌至30%-37%
五、散户情绪面简析
样本呈现"价涨情绪不涨"的背离：BTC/ETH本轮多次逼空反弹，但恐慌贪婪指数始终压在恐惧区，说明散户并未真正转向乐观，更像空头踏空后的被动买盘。美股相关贴文明显偏空，AI巨头现金流转负、财报"降温"情绪正外溢至币圈叙事。同时高杠杆(50-200倍)、反复补仓摊薄成本、"赌反转"类发言密集出现，说明散户风险偏好并未随价格回暖降温，仍处情绪化博弈，而非趋势性做多。BTC ETF资金流出与ETH资金流入的背离，也显示机构在悄悄换仓，与散户追涨meme/山寨形成对照。@张教主。 周末很热闹，“交易所排队倒闭”成了热门话题。没有政策压迫，没有黑客攻击，忽然一家又一家的关门，啥原因？
我不懂交易所运营，只是作为一个十多年的老币民直观地觉得，应该是不赚钱，甚至亏钱了。说一千到一万，开门做生意，是要赚钱的，每天一睁眼，辣么多人等着发工资，辣么多日常开支，不赚钱怎么撑得住？
我觉得交易所应该有两大块收入，一个是赚交易者的手续费，现在这个钱不好赚了，熊市太久了，进来就是被套被割，赚钱效应太低，加之股市高歌猛进，新人不来，老人又被消灭或者吸引去了股市，没人交易自然也别想赚手续费了。
交易所的另一块收入，应该是赚上币费之类的发币项目的钱，熊市币圈项目难拿投资，发币的少了，另外头部大所持续大搞Alpha，成为新项目上币的首选途径。所以中型所也赚不到什么项目发币的钱了。
既赚不到手续费，又赚不到上币费。而中型所家大业大，天天吃老本怎么撑得住？放眼熊市还看不到头，所以，只剩下一条路，关门止损。
按照以往的经验，每每交易所纷纷扛不住歇菜的时候，往往就是熊市见底的信号，也不知道这老经验这回还能不能显灵，让我们一起祈祷吧。
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 [US Stock Recommendation Series 01] SK Hynix - A story every storage investor must see. There are some reference points at the end.
If you have been investing in storage for more than half a year and still don’t understand how storage and its top companies have grown, then you really are just relying on luck and don’t even know how you got stuck, which is honestly a bit embarrassing. Completely clueless.
The biggest invisible winner in the tech sector this year is definitely SK Hynix.
On July 10, SK Hynix’s Nasdaq ADR listing surged nearly 19% in a single day, raising $26.5 billion, breaking Alibaba’s decade-long US IPO fundraising record, ranking as the second largest US IPO ever, and pushing the company’s market cap beyond $1.22 trillion.
Today, it is no longer an ordinary storage manufacturer but a core oligarch controlling the global AI computing power bottleneck. Global storage chip prices continue to rise, driving price increases across smartphones, computers, and gaming consoles, even triggering collective consumer rights actions in multiple countries. Even Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has visited South Korea four times in six months for deep cooperation, proving its irreplaceable industry status.
Many only see its current explosive rally but don’t know this company once faced bankruptcy and was besieged by foreign capital. Today, we briefly review and analyze SK Hynix’s complete logic of turning around from the brink and monopolizing the AI core track.
01 Chaebol Foundation: Two "snake swallowing elephant" acquisitions, accumulating capital to bet on the future
SK Hynix is backed by South Korea’s second largest chaebol, SK Group, which started with precise era dividends and capital mergers.
The group began in 1953 as a textile factory, with real social mobility achieved through two key acquisitions: in 1980 acquiring Korea’s state-owned monopoly oil company, securing a core energy track; in 1994 acquiring Korea’s exclusive mobile communication operator, monopolizing the domestic telecom market.
The energy + telecom cash flow monopolies built a huge family fortune for SK and provided strong backing for heavy investments in semiconductors and a counter-cyclical bet on the chip track. In 1998, Chey Tae-won officially took over the group and began semiconductor strategic layout.
02 Turning around from the brink: From near bankruptcy to becoming one of the global top three
SK Hynix’s predecessor was Hyundai Electronics, supported by national policy, competing with Samsung and LG semiconductors in a three-horse race. The storage industry requires heavy investment, has strong cycles, and high risk. In the 1990s, Korean companies used high leverage to catch up with US and Japanese giants.
The 1997 Asian financial crisis forced the Korean government, in exchange for IMF aid, to forcibly merge Hyundai Electronics and LG Semiconductor, with LG completely exiting the chip core track. The merged company was heavily indebted, compounded by the internet bubble burst and memory price collapse, falling into a dire situation.
In 2001, the company was split and renamed Hynix, insolvent and taken over by creditors. In 2002, Micron took advantage, proposing a harsh stock swap acquisition to swallow capacity cheaply and harvest the market, but was resisted by all and then sued Korean companies for dumping and imposed tariffs, completely blocking short-term paths.
After years of industry winter and debt restructuring, in 2011 SK Group took over Hynix with $3.05 billion and officially renamed it SK Hynix. In 2013, Micron acquired bankrupt Japanese Elpida, forming the global storage oligopoly of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which continues today.
03 Fate gamble: Betting on niche HBM, binding Nvidia to monopolize AI
SK Hynix’s rise to fame is centered on a technology bet made a decade ahead.
After taking over Hynix, SK completed the semiconductor materials, silicon wafers, foundry, and storage chip full industry chain through continuous acquisitions, smoothing traditional storage’s cyclical fluctuations. The real game changer was the 2013 layout of the then-unpopular HBM (High Bandwidth Memory).
At that time, ordinary DRAM was mainstream, HBM was costly, poorly adapted for consumer devices, and ignored. As the industry’s number two, SK Hynix, unable to compete head-on with Samsung, teamed up with AMD, also suppressed by Nvidia, to develop HBM. The first and second generation products commercially failed, but the team persisted, gradually validating value in supercomputing and data centers.
In 2022, SK Hynix’s HBM3 achieved stable mass production first, perfectly catching the AI large model explosion, becoming Nvidia H100’s exclusive core supplier with ultra-high yield. Subsequent HBM3E and HBM4 iterations fully adapted to Nvidia’s entire high-end computing chip lineup, deeply binding the global AI core industry chain. Even with giants fully supporting Samsung and Micron to break through, they cannot shake SK Hynix’s main supplier status.
04 Core barrier: Why can HBM choke AI?
The AI industry has long suffered a fatal memory wall problem: chip computing power iterates rapidly, but traditional memory transmission speed stagnates, leaving over 90% of computing power idle, severely dragging AI training and inference efficiency. Traditional technology cannot solve this, and HBM is currently the only optimal solution.
SK Hynix crushes competitors with three core technical advantages:
1. 3D stacking: breaks flat layout, achieves 16-layer vertical chip stacking, doubling capacity and transmission efficiency in the same volume, meeting AI’s ultra-high throughput demands;
2. TSV (Through Silicon Via): vertical holes inside chips, connecting multiple layers directly, completely solving traditional wiring delay and bottleneck issues;
3. MRMUF integrated molding process: exclusive trump card, compared to Samsung’s layer-by-layer hot pressing, one-time molding is more efficient and yields more stable, with four times the number of thermal bumps to solve high-stack chip heat dissipation problems.
In the era of high-stack mass production, Samsung’s process yield collapsed and ramped slowly, while SK Hynix, with mature technology, firmly holds the global HBM leadership.
05 Full-line shortages, rising volume and price!
Expansion projects in South Korea and the US will not release large-scale capacity until 2028, so the short-term tight supply pattern cannot be reversed. Currently, SK Hynix holds 58% of the global HBM market share, with an irreplaceable short-term monopoly position.
The traditional storage strong cycle and the curse of sharp rises followed by sharp falls are being broken by AI. AI computing power demand grows exponentially, HBM supply and demand remain imbalanced long-term, and the industry’s high prosperity has strong sustainability. The $26.5 billion raised in this US IPO will be fully used for capacity and technology iteration, further consolidating the monopoly advantage.
HBM new product iterations and global capacity ramp-up remain core tracking signals in the tech and crypto AI sectors.
Due to limited historical US stock data for Hynix, we take Micron Technology as an example. Currently, due to its sufficiently large bottom, the current head structure is very small, making a micro reversal unlikely, and dynamic adaptation rate is very low, with about two more years of a large market head period. For mid-term layout, Micron can be entered below 850.The recent market in the storage sector has probably left everyone dazzled. Whether it's SK Hynix in Korea or SanDisk and Micron in the US market, all have experienced dramatic ups and downs. Many people can't distinguish between short-term speculation and real industry value, so today I'll explain SK Hynix in plain language all at once. 1. First, understand: What exactly makes SK hynix profit? It is the absolute global leader in HBM high-bandwidth memory. The AI large model training servers we often talk about rely on HBM chips. Nvidia and major cloud vendors have already secured high-end capacity in advance, making product barriers extremely high, making it difficult for other companies to capture this market in a short time. Unlike SanDisk's inference SSDs, SK Hynix earns money from AI training computing power and is a top-tier essential component in the entire AI industry chain. 2. The Real Reasons for Recent Sharp Price Fluctuations 1. Previous gains were too high, with too many floating profit-taking. In this AI storage supercycle, SK Hynix's stock price has surged several times, with many institutions and foreign investors holding profit chips. Whenever market sentiment shifts and everyone sells in concentrated fashion, it is easy for rapid plunges or sharp rises and falls in the market. Recently, there have been frequent rapid rallies during trading, followed by quick pullbacks. Essentially, it's just short-term capital trading back and forth, with a quick rally and then cashing out and fleeing. 2. Market Divergence Begins Some investors worry that the price increase of regular DRAM memory will slow down, and consumer demand in the second half of the year will be average; Another group of foreign institutions remain firmly bullish, with the core logic unchanged: high-end HA clear point in the weekend market was that old coins like DOGE and SHIB moved first, while BTC remained around 64,000–65,000, with funding rates close to zero.
Short-term funds are rotating locally, but mainstream funds have not significantly increased their holdings. Currently, it seems more like a few old coins are active individually, so it's not yet accurate to say the altcoin market has fully recovered.Bitcoin addresses worth hundreds of billions of dollars on-chain that have remained untouched for a long time have recently encountered a series of troubles. A lawsuit in New York alone targeted nearly 3.8 million BTC, accounting for 18% of the total supply, with a market value exceeding $290 billion. This batch of unclaimed assets is simultaneously facing legal ownership disputes and technical risks of quantum attacks, while clear legislation is quietly rewriting the rules of the game. The first to stir up trouble was the lost property lawsuit in New York State. The plaintiffs, under pseudonyms, jointly claimed ownership of 39,069 dormant Bitcoin addresses, including 22,000 early mining addresses widely believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, totaling about 1.1 million BTC. $BTC The plaintiff, following New York State's personal property law rules for finding lost property, handed over lost property to the police, and if unclaimed for one year, ownership was obtained. They submitted the USB drive containing the address list to the New York Police Department and then posted the claim window via on-chain OP_RETURN messages, claiming they had fulfilled their notification obligation. To speed up the confirmation process, the plaintiffs even claimed that each wallet lacked access to private keys, with a single address valued at less than $10, a stark contrast to the actual market value of hundreds of billions of dollars. The core logic of this lawsuit is to equate the long-term untransferred funds directly with abandonment of the property. And the clear bill currently being advanced in Congress happens to specifically fill this legal loophole. Article 20216 of the draft clearly stipulates that self-custody digital assets cannot be recognized solely because the owner has not transferred the assets or has not shown a sustained willingness to hold themLast week, the Nasdaq fell 2.1% for the week, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.25% in a single week. The market's core anxiety is no longer about a decline in AI demand, but whether revenue and free cash flow can be realized amid massive capital expenditures and rising financing costs. This week, combined with the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, U.S. Q2 GDP, and June PCE inflation data, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, SK Hynix, storage devices, and leading packaging and testing companies will release earnings reports, marking a critical test for the technology and storage sectors. 1. Key timeline - After market close on 7.27: APLD, AMKR (the first AI advanced packaging earnings report this week) - After market close on 7.28: STX, KLAC, TER; evening SK Hynix earnings conference - 7.29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision; after market close Microsoft, Meta, LRCX, Qualcomm, HOOD, FORM; next day Samsung earnings briefing - Before market open on 7.30: GDP, PCE data; after market close Amazon, Apple - Before market open on 7.31: ExxonMobil earnings 2. Key stock highlights + price ranges 1. Leading tech (overall market switch) - MSFT: Monitor Azure growth, Copilot commercialization, capital expenditure impact on profits; support at 378~382, resistance at 389~392, $400 as a trend recovery signal - META: Advertising revenue, AI conversion efficiency, full-year spending plan; support at 590~595, resistance at 610~615 - AMZN: AWS outlookPUMP 24小时涨了11.5%，如果你只盯着这根阳线，很容易觉得它要开始新一轮拉升了。但真正让我停下来看的是另一组数字：过去7天，价格几乎没动，30天却已经涨了50%。也就是说，这11.5%不过是把7月的横盘区间往上抬了一点，距离ATH还差77%，而且7月21日那根156M的天量（一个月最高）之后，成交量持续回落，到昨天只剩80M。表面看涨，实际上资金在犹豫——是高位接盘的人在减少，还是洗筹后等下一波，现在很难说。
我更在意的是，$PUMP 作为 平台代币，它的价格叙事高度依赖于平台的 meme 发射活跃度。30天涨50%很可能对应了一轮新玩法或空投预期，但7天原地踏步说明这个预期已经大部分被定价，下一个催化剂还没出现。如果成交量继续萎缩，或者平台数据（比如新币数量、用户活跃）走平甚至下降，那这50%的涨幅反而会成为回撤的蓄力区。
$PUMP #财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
谷歌和特斯拉的财报刚出，我的判断很明确：谷歌是“稳中有忧”的现金奶牛，而特斯拉则是“刀尖舔血”的高风险博弈。
先看谷歌，营收超预期但云业务增速放缓是隐忧。广告收入依然强劲，但AI投入带来的资本开支激增，正在吞噬利润率，市场担心它变成下一个“烧钱机器”。
具体数据上，谷歌云营收增速从上季度的28%降至26%，不及预期；资本开支同比增长30%以上，主要用于AI数据中心建设。这说明增长引擎在换挡期，短期阵痛难免。
我的操作思路是：长期持有谷歌作为底仓，但短期不追高，等云业务增速重新加速或资本开支见顶信号出现再加仓。
再看特斯拉，表面看交付量和利润双降，但FSD（全自动驾驶）的进展才是真正变量。马斯克在电话会里反复强调FSD即将在中国落地，这才是支撑估值的核心故事。
数据上，汽车毛利率跌至17.1%，为三年最低；但FSD订阅用户数环比增长40%，且中国监管审批已进入最后阶段。这意味着，如果FSD能规模化变现，当前股价其实被严重低估。
我的操作思路是：用不超过总仓位5%的资金做“期权式”布局——买正股+卖看涨期权，既保留上行空间，又降低持仓成本。若FSD中国落地消息确认，再考虑加仓。
最后说一句：别被“超预期”或“不及预期”带节奏，财报只是起点，真正的机会藏在管理层没说透的细节里。$BONK 治理漏洞转移2000万美元国库资金，打破了以国库储备支撑估值的逻辑，市场陷入清算与治理重塑的剧烈定价博弈。
$BONK 价格较近期高点回撤 50%，2000 万美元国库资金通过战略资金调配提案划转至个人地址，引发散户恐慌抛售与部分大户重新布局。该事件同时收紧了同样拥有数千万美元国库的 $PEPE 和 $WIF 的持仓风险偏好。
驱动因素按优先级排序为：国库筹码二次流向导致的抛压预期、代币权重投票机制引发的治理信任崩溃、以及筹码在腰斩位置的换手效率。
从事件风险传导来看，2000 万美元资金离场相当于市场新增同等规模的潜在抛压通胀，瞬间打压了整个 Meme 板块的风险偏好。散户恐慌抛售促使短期仓位快速出清，大户吸筹行为则在下方形成局部买盘支撑。
上行剧本条件：若项目方或核心社区出面干预并推进紧急治理框架修复，将扭转治理失控预期。需要观察 2000 万美元转出资金是否暂停兑现，以及高位筹码换手率是否降至 5% 以下。一旦紧急风控提案通过，价格可能出现阶段性超跌反弹，该剧本在突破跌幅黄金分割点时确认成立。
下行剧本条件：若划转资金开始在链上兑现，或社区抛售潮引发进一步连锁清算，盘面将打破当前区间。需要观察链上划转地址的动向以及持仓集中度的变化。若转出地址向交易终端大额转移资金，价格将面临二次筑底下探。
判断失效条件：若市场无视治理缺陷，在无紧急修复方案出台的情况下直接拉回腰斩前高点，表明驱动力由治理基本面转向博弈资金，当前基于风控缺失的推演即告失效。
未来 7 天重点观察 2000 万美元划转地址的链上变动，以及紧急治理提案的投票筹码分布。
#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到（基于 OKX Orbit 热门话题 #财报观察员 earningsrealitycheck-164，2026/07/27 抓取：浏览 526.9 万、帖子 1,579；数据已对比前版刷新） 一、提炼核心事实：这周科技股到底发生了什么 一句话：市场不再为「烧钱换增长」买单了。谷歌、特斯拉 Q2 财报营收都超预期，但自由现金流同步转负，盘后一个跌 4%~7%、一个跌 5%~14%，特斯拉单周累跌近 20%、收 313.03 美元，创 2022 年以来最大单周跌幅。 ● 特斯拉：营收 282 亿（+26%）、交付创新高，但利润暴跌 57%、毛利率 16.8%、自由现金流 -10.9 亿（两年首负），资本开支 57.89 亿（+142%），马斯克全押 Optimus/Robotaxi。 ● 谷歌 Alphabet：营收 1198 亿（+24%），云 248 亿（+82%），但自由现金流上市以来首次转负 -59 亿；资本开支 449 亿（同比翻倍），全年指引上调到 1950–2050 亿，还发债 203 亿、增发 496 亿股票。 ● SpaceX 收于 115.07 美元、为上月 IPO📊 $WLD 爆仓速览
爆仓规模
· 1小时：$9,273.15
· 4小时：$6.16万
· 12小时：$30.30万
· 24小时：$106.77万
多空分布
周期 多头爆仓 空头爆仓 多头占比
1h $9,273.15 $0 100%
4h $4.50万 $1.66万 73.1%
12h $11.20万 $19.10万 37.0%
24h $85.11万 $21.66万 79.7%
多空解读
前4小时多头爆仓占主导（占比73.1%~100%），价格持续下跌；但12小时周期空头爆仓$19.10万强势反超（占63.0%），逼空行情猛烈爆发；24小时多头爆仓$85.11万再度逆转（占79.7%），方向二次逆转，杀多行情全面回归且猛烈升级。最终胜出方：空头——呈现“下跌→逼空→更强下跌”格局，多头尾盘遭毁灭性清算。
时间分布
· 1小时占24小时的 0.87%
· 4小时占24小时的 5.77%
· 12小时占24小时的 28.38%
爆仓分布极度后置：前12小时合计仅占28.38%，而24小时总量是12小时的3.52倍，说明杀多行情在12-24小时间猛烈升级（后12小时爆仓约$76.47万，占全天的71.6%）。当前处于空头主导的持续暴跌高潮阶段，多头遭系统性碾压，短期需关注超卖后技术修复信号。
一句话解读
$WLD 24小时多头爆仓$85.11万占总量79.7%，方向经历剧烈逆转，最终空头胜出，杀多行情在后半程猛烈升级。
🔥 市场风向标 | 7月24日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：AI的代价、监管的搁浅，以及地缘悬崖边的喘息。
📊 谷歌与特斯拉：AI盛宴的“账单”来了
两份财报揭开了AI叙事的残酷真相。
谷歌超预期但代价沉重：总营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；谷歌云收入247.7亿美元，同比暴涨82%。然而，资本开支高达449亿美元，自由现金流首次转负至-59亿美元。盘后一度跌近5%。
特斯拉增收不增利：营收282.4亿美元，同比增长26%；但营业利润仅3.98亿美元，同比暴跌57%，运营利润率只剩1.4%。自由现金流两年多来首次转负。盘后跌超4%。
信号：谷歌的AI已在云业务中形成收入闭环；而特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus仍停留在“故事”阶段。市场正在惩罚只有概念、没有现金流的AI叙事。
📜 CLARITY法案搁浅：14亿美元的伦理困局
加密行业的监管希望正在消散。参议院共和党虽释放更新文本并加入道德条款，但7名民主党参议员集体否决。参议院多数党领袖图恩明确表示，法案大概率无法在8月7日休会前通过。
根本障碍：特朗普通过加密业务获得的约14亿美元收益成为最大阻力。民主党要求更严格的伦理条款，防止总统在其政府监管下继续从加密行业获利。
Polymarket预测市场显示，年内通过概率已从80%以上骤降至37%。错过8月窗口，拖入秋季选举，2026年通过可能性将大幅下降。
🚢 美军暂停空袭：地缘悬崖边的喘息
当地时间7月25日，特朗普下令美军当天不要对伊朗发动新空袭，结束了此前连续13天的每日打击行动。
暂停空袭前数小时，阿曼代表团已抵达德黑兰，就重启霍尔木兹海峡通航展开谈判，据称已取得进展。布伦特原油此前已突破100美元/桶，若谈判取得突破，油价有望回落。
信号：这是一次战术性暂停——为外交留空间，但美军恢复打击的预案仍在准备中。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出当下市场的核心矛盾：AI的账单正在到来——谷歌和特斯拉用史上首次负现金流告诉市场，AI烧得比想象中更快；监管的窗口正在关闭——14亿美元的伦理困局让CLARITY法案年内通过希望渺茫；而地缘的喘息能持续多久，取决于阿曼斡旋的成败。#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 Brent oil fell more than 5% overnight, US stock futures rebounded collectively, and $ETH rose to $1,944—the Middle East situation has temporarily cooled, and the market finally dares to breathe. Last Friday, US stocks remained divided: the Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P closed flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%; The Nasdaq fell 2.1% for the week. High AI investment, oil prices, and the 4.69% 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continue to suppress tech stock valuations. This morning, the tide suddenly reversed. The US and Iran resumed contact and paused further attacks, causing Brent crude to fall from last week's breakthrough above $100 to around $87; Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1.2%, and the Nikkei 225 opened up 0.4%. Funds are trading to cool down geopolitical risks, but negotiations have yet to materialize, and this recovery could be interrupted by new news at any time. The crypto market performed stronger: $BTC around $65,150, up 1.5% in 24 hours; $ETH Around $1944, up 4.2%, ETH/BTC climbed to 0.02985. Although BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows of $240 million and $70.7 million respectively last Friday, the price did not continue to fall, indicating that the weekend selling pressure was absorbed by spot funds. Today, we first see if ETH can hold above $1935 and break through $2000, while BTC needs to break through $65,500 to open up space. This week, the Fed meeting and earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft, $META, and Amazon are intense; the oil price dip is only the first hurdle; interest rates and AI capital spending are the tough battles ahead. Risk warning: Geopolitical negotiations are still up and down,$BTC BTC 🔥 **$65,170**, just broke below $65,000 this morning, rising **+1.5%** intraday, following macro sentiment
📊 To be honest, the technical side isn't looking good—a **death cross** has formed, and the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, which is a classic bearish signal. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to **28**, the lowest this month. However, an RSI of 62 is not considered overheated, and the MACD is compressed near the zero axis, a typical "equi-directional" state.
🛡️ Key level: $63,800 is the consensus lifeline among analysts—Ali Charts says holding here can push it to $67,000; if it breaks, go straight to $60,000. $62,000 is stronger support, and $68,000 is resistance above.
💸 On the ETF side—last week's net inflow was only **$33.8 million**, the weakest week since the correction. In the first three days, I made $499 million, and on Thursday and Friday, I ran **$465 million**, almost giving up the whole week's food. BlackRock's IBIT had a weekly net outflow of **$95.5 million**. By 2026, cumulative BTC ETF net outflows will be **$5.23 billion**. Meanwhile, ETH ETFs have outperformed BTC for two consecutive weeks, with ETH ETFs entering $338 million versus BTC $234 million in July. Institutions are quietly switching positions, not a broadly bullish outlook. [Source: Cryptopolitan] (https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bitcoin-etf-volume-lowest-since-2024/)
🌍 On the macro side—**Tomorrow is the Federal Reserve meeting on 7/28-29**, which is the biggest variable this week. Oil prices plunged 6.3% in two days, Trump halted airstrikes on Iran, and the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire is 75%. Meanwhile, gold surged to $4,100/oz, and U.S. Treasury yields are falling. All risk assets are priced in as "war cools down + the Fed may lean dovish."
⚠️ But don't be too optimistic—the war is paused, not over; the Strait of Hormuz is not yet open, and the Houthis are still fighting. Moreover, the sharp drop in oil prices itself shows that the market is pricing in recession expectations, not just pure good news.
🎯 Summary: BTC is currently in the $63,800-$68,000 range, with no direction. Tomorrow's FOMC will be the catalyst—dovish signals can push the price above $68,000 to $72,000; the hawkish side will break through $63,800 and target $60,000. ETF data shows institutions currently have no faith; ETH is more favored than BTC. Don't chase in the short term; wait for FOMC to give guidance. $62,000-63,800 is the bottom-fishing zone, and follow after a volume breakout at $68,000.长鑫按照3万亿来看，确实不贵，pe才25，流通市值2000亿。
你把A股的科技股拉出来对比，基本都比这个贵。
而且这玩意解锁时间超级长，长时间都是低流通市值。
但是呢，这玩意开盘筹码太散了，太多散户打新中了。筹码散就有短期洗盘的需求。
对比spacex。不贵，美股的交易量大概是A股的2.5-3倍，且A股的散户多，情绪化更严重，spacex都拉盘了呢。
但是，spacex开盘大比例是机构的筹码。
再对比中芯国际，开盘1000亿流通市值，100+pe，也不贵，中芯国际开盘后几天小拉了一段，才一直跌的。