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朋友说他认识一个巨鲸，结果那个巨鲸是他自己
他跟我炫耀持仓截图的时候
我第一眼没看浮盈
先看了资金费率
因为这东西最诚实
结果呢
BTC永续费率大概只有万分之零点一出头
折成年化也不吓人
ETH差不多一个量级
SOL略高一点
也远没到狂热拥挤
OKX上BTC合约持仓量
大约三万一千七百枚
折合二十亿美金上下
量还在
温度却不高
这种组合有个名字
我私下叫它冷杠杆
仓位挂着
方向却没人敢重注
周末更容易变成手续费收割机
价格呢
大饼64513
小涨百分之零点七
ETH1885
SOL快75
K线看起来还行
可费率告诉你
这不是大家一起all in的趋势夜
朋友那种「我就是巨鲸」
多半是在冷市场里加了热幻觉
截图漂亮
不等于拥挤度支持趋势
一旦周一外部变量翻转
最先疼的就是费率低却仓位重的人
美伊缓和让油价先松
风险偏好有所回暖
但费率不配合上攻剧本
说明聪明一点的钱
更愿意看周一验证
而不是周日夜里加满
所以我的判断是
合约市现在适合降频
不适合靠感觉加杠杆
费率贴零加高持仓
最怕的是假突破真止损
我自己只留小仓试错
主仓继续现货思维
把「我认识巨鲸」这句话
从交易日志里删掉
再顺带看看最近大家都在聊啥：
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
法案进度再推迟，合约盘通常会先砍事件博弈仓位，费率贴零其实也在说同一件事：没人愿意为不确定日历付高资金成本。监管空窗会拉长震荡时间，不等于单边暴跌指令。我会把CLARITY当波动来源，不在休会叙事上对赌方向。
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展
地缘缓和最直接打在油价和风险溢价上，加密周末先小涨很合理，但费率不抬头说明杠杆层仍谨慎。停火或谈判进展若反复，最容易在合约侧制造来回扫损。操作上我宁可用现货表达乐观，也别在消息真空里把倍数拉高。
#韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单
AI硬件订单能抬风险偏好，却很难在周末直接抬高加密资金费率，两者时钟本来就不一样。股权叙事热、合约情绪冷，是典型的跨市场错位。我只把芯片大单当背景温度，不把它翻译成「今晚该上二十倍」。
$BTC $SOL #合约费率 #冷杠杆我室友半夜偷偷开合约被我抓到了
他屏幕亮着
我以为在刷短视频
凑近一看全是仓位颜色
我人都无语了
今晚尾盘消息更吵
一边有人往交易所搬筹码
一边有人在链上继续吸
然后你猜怎么着
TRUMP相关团队
把大约两千一百九十四万美元代币
存进了中心化交易所
这种动作市场第一反应就是
可能要卖
至少是流动性准备
另一边
有巨鲸过去一周增持约一百五十八万枚LINK
大概一千三百二十万美元量级
Arthur Hayes又买了六百多枚ETH
近期累计增持大概三千九百多枚
同一块屏幕
抛压预期和吸筹信号并列
最容易把人做成来回打脸
我室友那种半夜偷开
最怕的就是这种分裂市
消息面每个都能讲出故事
价格却只肯给你窄幅波动
BTC还在64513附近
ETH1885
SOL快75
像故意折磨手痒的人
大饼资金费率贴零
说明杠杆没在疯狂站队
异动更多是个券和地址行为
不是指数级别趋势切换
所以我的判断是
尾盘异动要拆开看
进所不等于立刻砸盘
吸筹也不等于明天拉升
我自己的规矩是
不跟单名人地址情绪
只把大额进出当风险提示
仓位继续偏现货
把室友那套半夜梭哈从我电脑里卸载掉
说回大盘之外的热点，今天这几个事儿有点意思：
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
退出队列归零，意味着想撤的质押压力阶段性缓和，排队进入的叙事又开始被拿出来讲。ETH今天相对更强一点，和「锁仓意愿回稳」能对上部分逻辑，但价格弹性仍受大盘与风险偏好约束。我会把队列数据当中期供需背景，不拿来做超短加杠杆理由。
#三星Galaxy钱包将原生支持稳定币
手机巨头把稳定币塞进系统钱包，是支付入口级别的信号，比再发一百篇科普有用。真正落地还要看哪些地区、哪些币、费率怎么切，短期难直接拉爆公链杂币。我更关注稳定币流通和链上活跃会不会随后抬升，而不是先去追概念票。
#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
科技巨头财报余波还在给风险资产定锚，周末加密先走出独立小波动，不代表股权风险已经释放完。尾盘异动若叠加快报叙事，最容易出现「故事很满、仓位很空」的错配。我选择把财报当周一联动变量，今天只记录不追涨。
$ETH $BTC #尾盘异动 #鲸鱼On July 26, WLFI fluctuated slowly downward throughout the day, with no significant rebound. The intraday high was $0.0572, the daily low was $0.0548, with a 24-hour cumulative drop of 4.12%. The current price is $0.055; the all-time high was $0.46, with a maximum drop of 82.7%. After a sharp rise of 0.068 on July 23, the market was sold aggressively, returning to the consolidation range of 0.055-0.057. The market fell in a shadow decline, with no intention to push upwards. Retail investors who bought at the top are now hopeless of breaking even. On-chain tokens: total supply 100 billion tokens, currently only 31.77% in circulation, with nearly 70% of teams, institutions, and Trump family tokens unlocked linearly over many years, continuously adding supply to suppress prices; The treasury holds 7.3 billion WLFI, with a paper unrealized loss exceeding $340 million, indicating long-term liquidation potential. WLFI claims DeFi is decentralized, but the project contract's contract has a built-in blacklist backdoor that can unilaterally freeze any user's wallet tokens. Previously, the project team directly froze 2.99 billion WLFI tokens from Justin Sun, sparking massive lawsuits and disputes, with the market thoroughly questioning asset security; retail investors and institutions worried their holdings could be frozen at any time, leading to long-term reductions and abscondium, with no long-term capital to hold or hold them. Governance is completely controlled by Trump-affiliated entities, with token holders' voting power capped at only 5%, project teams holding veto power, completely violating DeFi consensus, and institutions continuously avoiding allocation. WLFI essentially raises funds based on Trump's political IP, raising $1.4 billion. The Trump family has locked in about $1 billion in cash proceeds in advance, and the coin price doesn't need to rise不是胆小是Coinbase今天这操作太猛了他们把永续合约正式搬进美国了就从$BTC和$ETH的纳米合约开始24小时滚动自带杠杆追踪现货价格没有到期日对就是那个托起全球九成加密交易的金融怪兽现在光明正大踏进合规市场了我盯着屏幕看了半天说实话手指是抖的之前想玩永续还得折腾到离岸交易所现在本土就能搞某机构监管资金费率自动结算这不就是给美国散户开了个合法赌场吗CME直接急了当天就起诉想把它按死老牌交易所慌了因为永续合约一旦落地谁还玩传统期货？没有到期日不用反复移仓流动性吸过去就是一瞬间的事我倒是觉得CME越急越说明这东西真有杀伤力但咱们小散要想想以前在离岸交易所爆仓好歹能甩锅说平台黑现在合规了爆了就是真爆了清算引擎不会跟你讲情面永续这玩意是把双刃剑它在海外市场已经证明了自己多能吸金也证明了自己多能割人尤其是情绪盘高杠杆一上方向反了十分钟就带走你合规清算链上大逃杀以前是暗地里的游戏现在搬到台面上来了机构进场肯定是利好流动性但对普通玩家来说我觉得先稳住不追高不接针等市场消化完这波冲击再说姐妹们稳住这场合并不是一天两天的事让庄家先打咱们看清楚了再跟 #加密行情回暖，比特币走高 #芯片股反弹，美股空头#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
On July 25, Trump ordered a pause in airstrikes against Iran.
Thirteen consecutive days of strikes, with a daily battle plan review. On the 14th day, the plan was laid out on the table but not signed.
A few hours earlier, the Omani delegation had just arrived in Tehran. The discussion concerns the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Qatar Maritime Authority acted even faster—directly announcing the full resumption of all maritime shipping starting July 26.
Regional countries have already confirmed that risks have decreased.
But Trump's exact words were: "If you can't get what you want 100%, you will definitely consider resuming total war."
So it's not a ceasefire. It's a pause. Two words make up an entire peace agreement.
$CL Direct Reaction — Single-day -4.33%, pulling back from above $100. $BZ -4.47%。
That is, go long ...... crude oil around $100, and in the middle of the night, Trump sent a message with a gap of 3% at the open. The volatility of this product is not determined by technical factors; it is determined by a single word from one person.
Some people in the community are selling CL 10x for over 10x, costing 85.14, and the current price is just right above the cost line. This position is awkward: if it's flat, there's fear of a weekend agreement and oil prices crash; if not, fears Trump might post another message in the middle of the night.
There was a detail that caught me off guard—the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff had privately warned that expanding operations would dangerously deplete the Patriot interceptor missile stockpiles. Someone in the community put it even more bluntly: the missiles were almost all fired and had to stop.
It's exactly like trading—you're not defeated by the market, you are defeated by margin.
There are currently two core issues with oil prices: whether a verbal ceasefire can be turned into a written agreement, and whether shipping across the strait can be restored. Issue a written agreement, and oil prices will move below $90. The negotiation broke down, and prices kept rising above $100.
Some community views suggest that the roots are in the midterm elections in November. Oil prices push up inflation, inflation drives up prices, and prices affect votes. "All policies are for votes, every market movement is emotional fluctuations"—this statement may not sound flattering, but it is powerful enough to explain.
$CL At the $100 level, everything depends on Trump's message, so technical pricing is impossible. Before the weekend negotiations are finalized, don't bet on direction.
Whether Oman can reach a written agreement in negotiations over the weekend, and the actual implementation of Qatar's maritime resumption—these two issues will be directly priced into the opening price of CL/BZ during Monday's Asian session. Just keep an eye on it.
Without an agreement, airstrikes could resume at any time. The price of $100 for oil won't disappear on its own.
---
The above personal views do not constitute investment advice.Today is the market of "narrative remains, but capital needs validation."
Crypto prices did not crash, but ETF outflows and the Fear index indicate weak risk appetite;
The AI community has shifted from product entry point competition to skepticism about agent security and ROI;
The AI capex review of the US stock market will, in reverse, affect Hong Kong tech and crypto beta. If Hong Kong stocks are under pressure along with U.S. growth stocks, it indicates that funds are contracting in duration;
If it resists declines, it shows that Asian funds have independent risk appetite.
The forecasting market is turning into a cross-market sentiment dashboard: not for shouting orders, but for seeing which narrative retail investors and arbitrage funds are betting on.AI信仰一夜崩塌。纳斯达克被血洗，科技巨头财报季撞上市场对AI支出的集体反水，中国 DeepSeek 更是点燃了火药桶。但你看加密：比特币纹丝不动，SHIB 单日暴涨 20%，钱没走，只是换了赌桌。 本文大纲 - 💥 AI信仰崩盘，纳指遭血洗 - 🛡️ 钱往哪逃？道指、黄金与 BTC - 🐕 加密内部：BTC 稳如泰山，Meme 翻江倒海 - 🧠 谁在追逐 SHIB 和 DOGE？ - 🗺️ 宏观风暴中的避风港逻辑 今日快照 $BTC 64,466，+0.57% $ETH 1,884，+1.06% $QQQ -1.12%，$SPY +0.10% $DXY +0.03%，$GLD +0.10% $IBIT -0.82% VIX 18.57，-0.64% $USO 136.69，-2.01% 道指 51,947.25，+0.46% 一、AI 信仰崩盘，纳指遭血洗 💥 市场最不想看到的一幕还是发生了。对 AI 支出的集体反叛从财报电话会蔓延到盘面，纳斯达克 100 ($QQQ) 今日重挫 1.12%，科技巨头领着大盘往下砸。新闻头条写道：“Big Tech Earnings Sl#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
Ethereum validator exit queue cleared: the door was open, no one left
Exit the channel, empty.
The data on the beaconcha.in is cold: the exit queue resets to zero, you can unlock it anytime, and the funds arrive instantly.
Meanwhile, 2.48 million ETH are lining up to enter the market, stuck at the entrance, waiting an average of 43 days.
Half a year ago, this channel was blocked with 2.6 million coins, causing a stir in the market. Now that the escape route is open, no one is taking that step.
Two streams of people once brushed past each other in the passage, bidding farewell and going their separate ways. Now, the people who brushed past each other are gone—the old players are gone, but new players keep coming in.
Total staked is 40.9 million tokens, accounting for 33.55% of supply, with 885,000 validators online. The direction has already been cut: net outflow is reversed into net inflow.
You ask why?
Yield: 2.64%.
In 2023, it can be strong; for now, neighboring US Treasuries are 4.5%, oil prices are in triple digits, and inflation is suffocating the FOMC. 2.64% In this environment, whether you count the returns or the faith depends entirely on how you define "opportunity cost."
So here's the question: 2.48 million coins waiting to enter the market—whose money is it?
Part of it is institutional allocation, looking at ETH's USD exposure, not annualized USD. 2.64% is just a bonus; the underlying logic is "I need to occupy a spot on the network."
The other part is overseas capital, bypassing compliance hurdles and completing its layout before CLARITY is implemented—regardless of what next year's bill looks like, just standing at the node first.
The consensus between the two groups is: 2.64% are not here to make money, but to buy positions.
But if ETH's price reaches a certain tipping point, the exit gate becomes crowded instantly. Nowadays, no one is leaving—not because they don't want to, but because the price isn't at the level that makes people want to leave.
Oil prices are waiting for protocols, bills for clauses to be removed, ETH staking waiting for prices to give new answers.
Everyone was waiting.
But at least for now, the direction is clear: the exit door is open, and no one steps out. The line for entry was lined up, and no one left.
Waiting for the wind? The wind is already in the staking pool.After showering and lying in bed at night, I watched the market downward and saw BTC fall from 66,900 to 63,700 this round, then slowly recover to around 64,500. I feel the current market state is quite interesting.
Those who have been waiting for a correction for days ago may have really found their chance.
Bottom-fishing funds entering near 63,666 have indeed secured a good position. BTC is currently fluctuating around 64,500. If you follow a short-term perspective, some may consider placing a 3x leveraged limit long position, with a stop-loss at 63,500 and targets above 65,800 and 66,300.
However, from my own perspective at this level, I wouldn't blindly chase long positions just because it dropped; I still need to consider several signals.
First, the 63,666 area is quite critical because it rebounded after testing twice on July 20 and July 24, indicating some short-term capital support here.
Second, the current funding rate is only about 0.004%, with no signs of overheating in the long market. At the same time, OI saw a net inflow of about $110 million today, and ETFs have continuously attracted funds for seven consecutive days, totaling nearly $1 billion. These figures show that the market is not entirely without capital attention.
Of course, if you're not used to leverage, I think placing spot in batches is much more comfortable. The biggest risk in a contract is not directional judgment, but leverage turning normal volatility into forced exit.
Now let's look at the surrounding environment.
Last night, U.S. tech stocks came under pressure, with the Nasdaq falling 0.64%; A-shares also performed weakly, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.61%, and the Hong Kong tech sector also showing weakness, with overall market risk appetite clearly declining.
Additionally, escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude toward around $100, raising the market's probability of a rate hike in September to 61%. According to traditional logic, these factors would put pressure on risk assets.
Interestingly, BTC did not continue to weaken sharply, instead holding steady near 64,500.
My own feeling is that the market is now undergoing a wave of emotional cleansing. Funds that chased previous gains were shaken out, and those hoping to buy at low prices began to re-observe, and the market actually entered a more balanced state.
Technically, the 66,924 on July 21 and 66,711 on July 22 have connected, forming a short-term downward resistance line. Although the slope is not very large, it does limit the rebound potential.
The good news is that the support at 63,666 has already been tested twice.
Currently, BTC is trading sideways around 64,500, with open interest (OI) turning positive for three consecutive days and funding rates dropping from 0.006% to 0.004%. My understanding is that some of the leveraged sentiment in the market has already been released, unlike the crowded phase of chasing rallies at high levels.
If it rebounds to around 66,300, I personally prefer to observe first and even reduce positions in batches, rather than blindly hoping for further gains. Although the MACD green bars are shortening, they have not yet formed a clear golden cross, so there is no need to aggressively advance too early.
The flow of funds is also worth attention.
BTC saw a net OI inflow of about $114 million today, marking three consecutive days of positive gains; ETH also saw a net inflow of about $71 million. Both sides have capital participating, but BTC is relatively more stable.
In terms of fees, BTC is currently moderately bullish, with no obvious overheating; ETH has even turned negative, indicating that bears are paying the cost of funding to the bulls.
Now let's look at ETH.
ETH fell from $1,959 to $1,846, then rebounded to around $1,881, showing greater volatility and greater resilience than BTC.
Notably, the ETH funding rate has become **-0.0019%**, meaning short sellers must pay long positions funding every 8 hours. Historically, such situations sometimes serve as rebound signals.
But I think ETH's current problems are also obvious, with a cumulative pullback of about 5% this week, and market confidence has not fully recovered. So if I were to do contracts, I personally would still prioritize BTC, which is a relatively stable product.
If I want to bet on an ETH rebound, I tend to favor a light position near $1,870, with a focus on the risk level below $1,840.
Overall, I think the market is not simply bullish or bearish but waiting for new catalysts. There is capital holding support at the bottom, but the pressure above is also real. For me, the most important thing right now is to control my position size. Don't let a slight rebound make you leverage too much.
#OKX星球话题来啦
$BTC $ETH $KAITO is printing strong momentum with solid buy pressure behind it. As long as volume stays healthy, this rally has room to run.
Trade Setup:
Entry point : Wait for breakout confirmation
Target: +25%
Stop Loss : Below support zone
NFA. Size responsibly and manage risk.
#EarningsRealityCheck
#CLARITYActStalled
#DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit Historically, the best return for $QQQ in July each year was 12.55% in 2020, and the worst rate was -1.68% in 2024.
So far, QQQ's return rate in July this year is around -7%, marking the worst return in history.
In the past 15 years, only one year was negative; the other years had decent returns.
I still have a feeling that next week will be a pretty intense one.
The data will all experience significant corrections......
$QQQ If it drops a bit further, it will enter my batting and set throwing space.📊 $LAB Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $3,110.23
· 4 hours: $24,200
· 12 hours: $103,400
· 24 hours: $142,100
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $83.70 $3,026.53 2.7%
4h $16,700 $7,408.19 69.3%
12h $86,300 $17,000 83.5%
24h $118,500 $23,600 83.4%
Duokong interpretation
One-hour short liquidations dominate (97.3%), but the scale is very small; From 4 hours onward, long positions are liquidated, suddenly crushing short positions (69.3%~83.5%), with a sharp reversal within 1-4 hours, turning into a sustained one-sided decline; The 12-hour and 24-hour bullish positions remained stable at 83%, with the bullish trend continuing into the later stages. Ultimate winner: Bears—The price shows a continuous one-sided downward trend, while the bulls have cleared out consecutive stop-losses.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 2.19% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 17.0% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 72.8% of 24 hours
Liquidations are concentrated in the 12-hour cycle (over 70%), indicating that the main downward wave has exploded within 12 hours; The 24-hour total is 1.37 times that of the 12-hour period, with an increase in the last 12 hours but a weaker intensity. Currently, the market is at the end of a bear-led sustained decline, with the bullish forces basically cleared out. In the short term, we need to wait for signals of shrinking volume.
A one-sentence explanation
$LAB 24-hour long liquidations at $118,500, accounting for 83.4% of the total; 12-hour concentrated breakout mainly triggered a downward wave, with bears winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress Quant has become a systemic variable in China's socio-economic system. In the first quarter of 2026, quant accounted for over 35% of the average daily turnover in A-shares, with daily trading volumes often reaching hundreds of billions to over a trillion yuan. Quant is now the core force directly involved in price discovery, liquidity, and volatility structures. Any state apparatus, once it realizes that a significant portion of market pricing power is in the hands of algorithms and computing power, will instinctively tighten for control.
Fang Xinghai's investigation is just one of the triggers; he represents the previous open-minded approach of liberalizing quantitative trading, introducing short selling, and market-oriented tools. As soon as he fell, the space that had been tacitly allowed instantly narrowed. The essence of regulation is to re-imprison quantitative metrics in a controllable cage.
JPMorgan's move is focused on options-style hedging. Earlier this year, they formed a dedicated China quantitative trading and research team, aiming to accelerate electronic trading and compete with non-bank giants like Citadel and Jane Street. Now, people are concentrated in Singapore, retaining access capabilities, but core models and talent are placed where rules are clear, political friction is low, and data and infrastructure are more user-friendly. Singapore has already become their clear Asia-Pacific Center of Quantitative Excellence. Stripping unpredictable policy risks off the balance sheet. Truly high-end institutional decisions have never been about risk-adjusted expected returns—whether it's still worth placing core assets here
China is actively abandoning path dependence on efficient markets. Mature markets accept quant as an efficiency engine, but the cost is that retail investors are systematically at a disadvantage in information and speed. China has repeatedly chosen another path: using administrative means to suppress unfair advantages, in exchange for stable retail sentiment and controllable narrative.
As a result, A-shares have long remained in a retail-dominated model characterized by "high turnover, high volatility, and low pricing efficiency." With such a high proportion of quantitative assets, continuing to wear the tightening spell is essentially telling global capital that the market structure here prioritizes political and social goals, rather than capital allocation efficiency.
Talent outflow, model relocation, and the shift of core R&D focus southward are natural outcomes of this choice. Singapore and Hong Kong are riding the wave of this spillover effect
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? Looking at the overall pace of U.S. stocks throughout 2026, no week's information density, market weight, or pricing influence can rival the just-started final trading week of July. This is truly the most prestigious Super Week of the year. Four major macro data points—the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision, the preliminary US Q2 GDP, core PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index—were all released together, combined with the four trillion-dollar AI tech giants Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon releasing their earnings intensively. Macro policies, inflation fundamentals, economic growth, and AI industry profitability logic will all complete centralized pricing within a week. The more than half year of AI market debate, expectations of high interest rates to persist, and the valuation battles among U.S. growth stocks have all reached their final showdowns. 1. Market Review This Week: AI Valuation Logic Completely Changed, Market Enters a New Pricing Phase The recently concluded trading week saw a slight index pullback in U.S. stocks and deep divergence among tech stocks. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped sharply by 2.1%, with growth stocks showing clear signs of pressure. The core trigger for this round of adjustment is no longer simply disappointing performance, but a fundamental shift in market pricing logic. Previously, the market blindly embraced the AI track, where as long as companies increased their investment in AI computing power and laid out AI infrastructure, they could gain a valuation premium. However, after the latest financial reports from Google and Tesla dropped sharply, the entire market completely reversed its thinking: high growth in AI has become a market consensus, and the only real concern for capital right now is sky-high prices银行业是反对CLARITY法案游说的核心力量，表面打着保护消费者的旗号，本质是担心用户为更高收益把存款转出银行。银行盈利模式，就是吸纳低息甚至无息存款来放贷获利，过去用户没有更好的理财选择，资金才愿意留在体系内。一旦加密赛道提供更高收益，这套盈利根基就会动摇，银行靠政策壁垒守住的优势，就会被打破。
法案推进陷入僵局：部分共和党议员认为文本需要进一步修改才愿意支持，原本倾向加密的民主党议员，又因法案没有约束特朗普家族加密相关收益而反对。两方诉求完全相悖，最终结果就是监管规则长期处于空白状态。
没有明确监管，新兴加密企业很难合规入局，民众资金也缺少合理的去处。银行业真正维护的不是储户利益，而是这份规则真空的现状。他们忌惮加密行业打破现有格局，恰恰说明传统金融体系，早已用壁垒困住了普通储户的财富选择。#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ While slacking off in the afternoon, I found SHIB's performance today quite impressive, rising 9.49% in one day. The latest price is $0.000005210. If you count from around 0.00000423, this rebound is already close to 20%.
However, I didn't chase it immediately. Instead, I checked the on-chain data and felt there were several noteworthy changes behind this rally.
First, the number of tokens on exchanges continues to decrease.
In the past 24 hours, over 11.3 billion SHIB flowed out of exchanges, with an overall net flow of about -145 billion SHIB, indicating a clear net outflow on-chain. Meanwhile, exchange reserves have dropped to 86.1 trillion, getting closer and closer to the psychological threshold often mentioned by the market.
My understanding is that the reduction in tradable and sellable tokens on exchanges will indeed provide some short-term support for supply, but tightening supply is only one factor affecting prices; it also depends on whether capital inflows continue to be made.
Another change is that the destruction speed is also being increased.
In the past 24 hours, the SHIB burn rate surged by 350%; In the past 7 days, a total of 44.23 million SHIB tokens were burned, a 32.63% increase compared to the previous week. These figures indicate that the community is still advancing the burn mechanism, which will help market sentiment.
There are also new catalysts on the news side.
With ongoing legislative advances related to Japanese crypto ETFs, SHIB has been included in Japan's JVCEA green list, which to some extent enhances its compliance market narrative. This is a positive signal for funds long-focused on the Japanese market.
However, I think we shouldn't just look at the positive news now.
From a technical perspective, SHIB is still trading below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend has not truly reversed. Additionally, on-chain data shows that about 707 wallets control 94% of the supply, with whale holdings remaining highly concentrated.
Another point that's easy to overlook: although the amount of burned has increased significantly recently, compared to the circulating supply of about 589 trillion coins, the scale of this burn is still relatively limited. In the short term, it tends to improve market sentiment rather than completely change supply-demand relationships.
Next, I will focus on resistance in the 0.00000520–0.00000530 USD range.
If trading volume can effectively amplify and break through, the upper side can continue to watch the 0.000000550—0.00000600 USD area; If the rally is blocked, attention should still be paid to whether the 0.00000418–0.00000420 USD range can form the first support.
Overall, I prefer to see this rally as a technical recovery driven by tighter supply, increased burning, and sector synergy. Before a true trend reversal is achieved, I think more trading volume and sustained capital inflows are needed to confirm, so I won't change my trading rhythm just because of a single day's rise.
The above is just my personal observation based on market data and public data, and does not constitute any investment advice. When trading, you should manage your positions according to your own risk tolerance.
$BTC $ETH $SHIB
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard My best friend said her boyfriend works at a big tech company and lost a house in cryptocurrency trading
My first reaction after hearing this was not sympathy
It opens the list of decliners
I want to find out who is bleeding today
And what happened?
The market is not crashing
BTC 64513
In fact, the 24-hour period has increased
0.71%.
ETH is a bit brighter
By around 1885,
Up about 1.5%.
SOL 74. 95
also about 1.4%.
So this is not a "full sell-off day"
It is the day of structural differentiation
Keep up with the narrative of easing and funding
First, look up
Can't keep up
Continuing to fall gloomily adds to the frustration
On Friday, the ETF still recorded a net outflow of about $225 million
The ledger is rather cold
But the spot will be warmer on weekends
This kind of misalignment is the easiest to deceive
You might think the reversal is confirmed
Actually, it's just a short squeeze out a bit
The bulls also didn't dare to fully leverage their position
The funding rate is almost zero
It was more like no one wanted to stay overnight and gamble on the direction
Names on the decline list
Most of the time, it's the ebb of narrative and the drain of fluidity
It's not that big shots are being smashed through
My best friend's line, 'Losing a whole house,'
This kind of structure feels especially authentic
When making money, I feel like I understand rotation
Only when you lose money do you realize it
What I bought myself is elastic
Not a Beta
So my judgment is
Today, don't use 'declining trend sentiment' to define the entire market
First, distinguish whether it's an index issue or a currency issue
The index is still hovering around 64,000
Individual currency killing is about crowded transactions
I only consider swapping weak ones for cleaner spot stock
Don't use high leverage to bet on V-reversals in a differentiated market
Next, let's take a quick look at the latest hot topics and chat casually:
#韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单
News of the storage duo securing major AI orders is still circulating, with risk appetite heating up in equity narratives first, then slowly seeping into crypto risk assets. The small rise in Bitcoin is more like sentiment spillover, not chip orders directly converting into buying. I will treat this as background note on risk appetite, not using a coin to map every supply chain news.
#黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, it has received endorsement from industry collectives
The open source proposal sounds passionate, and the AI narrative has already been priced up several times on the market. In the short term, the more sensitive issue is whether computing power capital expenditures can be realized. On the crypto side, AI tag coins are highly flexible and have thin logic, making them suitable as emotional thermometers, but not as main holdings. I'd rather see if there is real demand for hash rate and stablecoin payments, rather than chasing after another wave of slogans.
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元
A monthly transaction volume of 470 billion sounds alarming, indicating that tokenized asset trading layers are actually being used—not just roadshow PPTs. A surge in volume doesn't mean your wallet's miscellaneous coins will rise accordingly; structured products rely on rates and basis differences. I will use RWA as my main mid-term tracker, while in the short term, I will prioritize the Bitcoin position and leveraged crowding.
$BTC $ETH #跌幅解读 #结构分化My dad asked me what DeFi is, and I said, don't worry about it, I'll help you buy it
My dad came to ask again tonight
I just looked at the board and could only give a dry laugh
Traditional markets are closed on Sundays
But Da Bing was bouncing around on his own
I quickly glanced at the message
The easing winds from the US and Iran have risen again
The previous two crude oils clearly fell back
Negotiations for the opening of the strait have also made progress
Then guess what
BTC 64513
In 24 hours, it rose by 0.71%.
The missile narrative is a bit looser
Oil prices fell first
The currency is first green
US stocks will have to wait until Monday to open and verify their results
This collaboration is a bit twisted
In the past, whenever I heard about tensions in the Middle East,
Everyone was just waiting to smash the price and put on a show
Now, pricing is more like the Xiansong product channel
Risk assets will find a way out over the weekend
On Friday, the ETF still saw a net outflow of about $225 million
The cumulative net inflow was about 81.2 billion yuan
Institutional ledgers are not so romantic
But the spot just doesn't go along with the panic script
The open interest in BTC contracts on OKX is about 31,700 units
This amounts to around 2 billion US dollars
The funding rate is close to zero
The weekend volume is also not exaggerated
It looks more like a sideways trading loss
It's not a trend ignite
So my judgment is
Before Monday's open, don't formulate 'oil drop = US stocks must rally = crypto must surge.'
Easing only reduces tail risk premiums
Whether it's real or not depends on whether US stock futures and crude oil are confirmed together
I'd rather see the reaction with the in-stock stock
Don't use weekend sentiment to leverage it
Looking through today's plate, there are a few interesting points:
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
Earnings season is still reflecting on the two reports from Google and Tesla股价从200美元跌到110美元，曾经"稀缺"的逻辑已经被彻底打破。7月底首批20%员工持股解锁只是开始，8月6日预计有约9.1亿股可进入流通，而此前真正可交易的流通股仅占总股本4%左右——供给量即将翻倍甚至更多。
对大批行权成本极低的员工而言，账面浮盈即便在110美元依然丰厚。房贷、教育、资产配置，变现是刚性需求。更不用说当前空头持仓已占流通股约30%，做空资金提前布局，等着接这些"带血筹码"。
但风险往往酝酿机会。如果8月初财报后股价出现加速下杀，或者急跌后出现明显缩量筑底形态，那大概率就是恐慌盘与解锁抛压集中释放的阶段。届时，低价筹码可能出现。我会等那个时刻。⚠️2024到2025这波行情里，山寨币的主升行情基本都撑不过三个月，随后普遍回撤八成以上。短短窗口期里只有少数人及时止盈，多数人被套，本质是把炒作故事当成了长期价值信仰。
山寨行情生命周期极短，是多重因素叠加导致的：
首先山寨币买单资金仅限圈内存量，没有外部增量资金进场；其次它属于行情轮动的末端，大部分资金早已被主流币分流；加上项目代币解锁、项目方砸盘，抛压源源不断；本轮ETF还分流了主流币资金，土狗赛道又瓜分了场内存量流动性。
后续我更看好DeFi板块，它的行情周期同样会维持在三个月左右。#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 🚀 RWA perpetual monthly trading volume reached 470 billion, soaring 450% in half a year!
This is not the frenzy at the end of a bull market, but a signal of a new track starting.
Tokenized stocks, commodities, and even SpaceX are being "perpetually" traded on-chain.
In June, just three major platforms including OKX accounted for over 80% of the share, with SpaceX alone reaching 66 billion in a single month.
🧠 My three observations:
❶ It's not speculative shell swapping, but capital searching for "on-chain Alpha"
The low volatility of traditional assets combined with the high leverage of perpetual contracts naturally suits market makers and event-driven traders. 66 billion is not a volume retail investors can generate; institutions are testing the waters.
❷ Tokenized stocks surged 7 times, who’s next?
I believe it’s government bond yield rights—on-chain interest-bearing assets + RWA compliance represent a trillion-level blue ocean. Pre-IPO liquidity is poor, foreign exchange regulatory barriers are high, so government bonds are most likely to explode first.
❸ Haven't traded yet? What are you waiting for?
Waiting for liquidity? Waiting for regulation? Waiting for a friendlier UI?
— These are all rapidly improving, and early adopters are already capturing the premium.
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 High prosperity and high volatility in storage stocks: Which is more worth watching, Micron, SanDisk, or SK Hynix?
The expansion of AI computing power is reshaping the competitive landscape of the storage industry. In the past, investors viewed memory and flash as highly cyclical basic components; price increases often meant supply-demand imbalances, while price declines meant inventory buildup. With the advent of the AI era, HBM, high-capacity server DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs have begun to become core devices in data centers, giving storage manufacturers new growth opportunities.
However, the recent performance of storage stocks reminds investors that a positive industry fundamental does not necessarily mean stock prices can continue to rise. On July 24, Micron fell about 7% in a single day, SanDisk dropped about 11%, and SK Hynix's Korean domestic stock dropped about 8%. Previously, all three companies experienced significant gains, but the recent pullback feels more like profit-taking and valuation revaluation rather than a sudden disappearance of demand.
AI continues to expand storage demand
AI servers require large amounts of HBM to improve GPU data transfer efficiency, and DRAM is also needed to store running data. As model scale increases, data centers will need to deploy more SSDs to store training data, model files, caches, and inference results.
Market research firm Gartner predicts that DRAM prices could rise by 125% in 2026, NAND Flash prices by 234%, and storage price pressures may continue beyond 2027. Gartner Industry Forecast
TrendForce also holds a bullish outlook for Q2 2026, expecting traditional DRAM contract prices to rise 58% to 63% quarter-over-quarter, and NAND Flash prices to increase 70% to 75%. Storage manufacturers are shifting more capacity toward HBM, server memory, and enterprise-grade SSDs, causing supply contractions for storage products used in regular PCs and mobile phones. TrendForce price prediction for $MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK
This set of data shows the industry is still in a strong cycle, but it also raises a question: how long can high prices last?
Micron: The most complete product and the highest expectations
Micron also operates DRAM, HBM, NAND, and enterprise-grade SSDs. It can benefit from the memory demands of AI servers and also from expanding storage capacity in data centers.
Micron's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached $41.46 billion, setting a new company record. The company also provided a stronger outlook for the fourth quarter, stating that HBM4 has entered a phase of high-volume shipments, HBM4E is under development, and mass production is expected in 2027. Micron's financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026
Another advantage of Micron comes from its domestic manufacturing footprint in the United States. The company plans to expand its U.S. DRAM capacity, which will not only help reduce supply chain risks but may also secure policy support and long-term orders from large customers.
However, Micron's stock price has fully reflected the industry's recovery and growing AI demand. In the future, the market will not only look at revenue growth, but also on whether profit margins can be maintained, whether capital expenditures spiral out of control, and when new capacity will come online. If the company's performance only meets expectations, the stock price may still come under pressure.
SanDisk: Betting on NAND and Enterprise SSDs
SanDisk's business focus is on NAND Flash and SSDs. Compared to Micron and SK Hynix, SanDisk has less direct involvement in HBM, but is more sensitive to NAND prices and enterprise SSD demand.
SanDisk's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached $5.95 billion, a 97% quarter-over-quarter increase, with data center business up 233%. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion. SanDisk's financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026
AI data centers need more than just GPUs and HBMs. The datasets generated by model training need to be stored long-term, inference services need to frequently read model files, and caching systems require larger SSD capacity. As long as data centers continue to expand, enterprise SSDs have strong growth potential.
SanDisk's characteristic is its high earnings flexibility. When NAND prices rise, company profits may grow rapidly; However, when supply and demand shift, profits may also decline rapidly. It is more like a highly volatile storage price target, suitable for investors who are optimistic about the NAND cycle and can also tolerate larger drawdowns.
SK Hynix: HBM is the most competitive feature
SK Hynix's strongest business at present remains HBM. In the first quarter of 2026, the company's revenue reached 52.58 trillion KRW, operating profit reached 37.61 trillion KRW, and an operating margin of 72%, setting a new record. SK Hynix's Q1 2026 financial report
SK Hynix has advantages in HBM products, customer relationships, and mass production experience. As AI applications expand from model training to real-time inference, the company's growth has also begun to extend from HBM to server DRAM, eSSD, and other high-capacity storage products.
But competition from HBM is intensifying. Micron and Samsung are both increasing capacity and yield, and customers may also reduce procurement risks by bringing in more suppliers. SK Hynix's current high profit margins are built on technological leadership and tight supply. If competitors close the gap or HBM prices begin to fall, the company's valuation could face double pressure.My mom's colleague spent all her pension money on Bitcoin, and now she treats us to meals every day
She kept saying this during the family dinner last weekend
"Young people need to be bold."
But what I want to say is that in this position, many people's courage has already been worn down
Funding rates show that BTC and ETH remain in bearish territory
What does that mean?
That is, the long seller pays the short seller
This shows that most people in the market are still bearish
But strangely, BTC not only didn't fall this week but actually rose by 0. 6%
Then guess what
This kind of "bearish but not falling" market is actually the most challenging for people
If your analysis tells you you should go long
But market sentiment has consistently been bearish
Which one would you believe?
From my own experience,
Follow the data, not emotions
5 buy signals versus 0 sell signals
This data is not a lie
Although ETFs are seeing 225M outflows
But BTC prices did not fall
This indicates that OTC and spot buying orders are taking over
This is a signal that institutions are quietly accumulating funds
There's also a point of psychological struggle
The BitMart incident escalated over the weekend
The CEO said he was also notified to suspend operations
The MSX founder wants to acquire it again
This chaos actually shows that some people are picking up bargains at low prices
Those who dare to take the market during panic are often the big winners
So my judgment is
Don't let your emotions lead this position away emotionally
If funding rates are bearish≠ prices will fall
Sometimes, when everyone is bearish, that's actually the best window to build a position
Wait until everyone is bullishTrump halted the airstrikes, oil prices plummeted, and $BTC actually rose
Thirteen consecutive days of airstrikes stopped just like that.
On the 24th, Trump directly ordered that no new strikes against Iran would be launched that day. Following the news, WTI crude oil plunged nearly 4% in grey market trading, while Brent dropped more than 3%. BTC, on the other hand, has risen from around 63,800 to around 64,460.
The logic makes sense—oil prices fall→ inflation expectations cool, → risk assets catch their breath.
But don't get too happy too soon. Trump's exact words: "If we cannot get 100% of what we want from Iran, we will absolutely consider resuming a full-scale war." "And the Strait of Hormuz has not yet reopened.
In the short term, you can gamble for a rebound, but set stop-losses. Don't mistake tactical pauses for strategic peace.
Let's talk in the comments—do you think this rebound can last? Or is it just the calm before the storm? Tech giants collectively pull back: Why did these stocks all fall today?
Looking at the market today, a glaring red color was a stark display—Micron Technology (MU) plunged over 7%, Intel (INTC) plunged 12%, SanDisk (SNDK) fell nearly 11%, Tesla (TSLA) also fell 2.2%, and even Nvidia (NVDA) couldn't stay unscathed, slipping nearly 1%. Both the semiconductor and new energy vehicle sectors have cooled off. In my view, this adjustment is an inevitable profit-taking + sector rotation. Since the beginning of this year, AI concept stocks have surged dramatically, with chip giants like Nvidia already exhausting some of their optimistic expectations. Recently, the market has begun to worry that AI capital expenditure growth may slow down, with Micron and Intel, as representatives of memory and traditional chips, naturally bearing the brunt. Intel's biggest drop may reflect not only industry pressure but also ongoing market doubts about its competitiveness and transformation progress. Tesla, on the other hand, was dragged down by overall weakness in its new energy vehicle sector, with delivery data and Robotaxi narratives temporarily struggling to boost confidence. Looking deeper, this is the normal breath of a high-valuation sector. Tech stocks have risen so fiercely that capital needs a breather, and shifting to other undervalued sectors is also reasonable. On the macro front, interest rate expectations, inflation data, or geopolitical factors may also exacerbate the decline in short-term risk appetite. Personal view: Short-term pullbacks shouldn't be overly pessimistic, especially for NVIDIA, whose fundamentals remain strong and long-term AI demand remains. What truly needs to be watched out are Intel and some follower stocks; if there is no substantial improvement, the correction could be even deeper. But for high-quality stocks, this is often a "shakeout" rather than a "trend reversal."Changxin hasn't officially opened yet, but long and short positions on X are already fighting. Some are preparing to go all-in on 300,000 yuan in flash loans, while public addresses have held over 13 million USD in short positions; In the Chinese-speaking region, discussions about how much profit can be made from winning the lottery, while in the English-speaking region, the pre-market contract for Hyperliquid has already priced Changxin's valuation close to 3 trillion yuan. I compiled 31 tweets in both Chinese and English, checking issuance data, financial performance, industry news, pre-market prices, and market rumors one by one. I'm not going to guess a simple answer to a rise or fall first. What really needs to be answered is: How much is Changxin really worth? How was the 3 trillion yuan expectation formed? Which high-traffic news can be trusted? After the market opens, which data should we keep an eye on? 1. 31 tweets, but the most discussed topic isn't Changxin's technology. These 31 tweets are not a market-wide poll. I filter content with high pre-IPO views or those that represent a certain type of viewpoint. Among them, 20 tweets were in Chinese, and 11 were in English or other languages; 22 views exceeded 50,000, 14 views exceeded 100,000, and 9 exceeded 200,000. Categorizing them, the results are straightforward: - 10 discusses trading plans and retail sentiment; - 9 discusses valuation and pre-market prices; - 7 discussing companies and industries; - 5 are rumors or commercial promotions. Nearly two-thirds of the content discusses price, position, and "how much can be made?" What the company truly achieves is not the traffic center. The most viewed account is the English account [@zephyr_z9]. The problem is, the latter ones🛰 金十雷达 | 21:49
主题：霍尔木兹
据金十快讯，【沙特媒体：伊朗方面称并未退出谈判，愿在日内瓦多地与美国继续谈判】金十数据7月26日讯，综合阿拉伯卫星电视台与沙特媒体哈达斯报道，伊朗已告知巴基斯坦官员，伊朗并未退出谈判，而是暂时中止了。伊朗重申了在停滞阶段恢复谈判的必要性、表示拒绝在霍尔木兹海峡开辟新航道。此外，伊朗已向巴基斯坦确认，愿意在日内瓦、卡塔尔多哈或伊斯兰堡继续（与美国）进行谈判；并要求恢复关于…
观察视角：这类消息先看是否影响油价、美元或美股风险偏好，再观察BTC/ETH跟随强弱。
验证点：若后续没有价格、成交量或避险资产确认，就按背景变量处理，不把标题当交易信号。
仅作市场观察，不构成投资建议。$BASED — RECOVERY STRUCTURE FORMING
BASED is trading near $0.08386 after a moderate intraday pullback. The present price area could become a short-term recovery zone if buyers defend support and begin producing stronger volume.
TRADE SETUP
EP: $0.0831 – $0.0843
TP1: $0.0864
TP2: $0.0889
TP3: $0.0922
SL: $0.0804
Holding above the entry range could allow BASED to challenge TP1. A confirmed breakout above $0.0864 may attract additional momentum and open the way toward $0.0889 and $DOGE $BASED .七月二十六日，凌晨五点的光还没有完全透进窗户，
屏幕上的数字停驻在64590.5与63806.4之间，像被这个城市黏稠的夏夜攫住，上下只挪动了不到一个百分点。24小时成交量约1.68亿USDT，不大不小，刚好够让K线画出几条懒散的影线。没有人惊呼，也没有人恐慌。就在这样几近凝固的行情里，一则统计悄然被刷新：十家上市公司，合计持有超过一百万枚比特币。
一个整数关口，来得毫无声息。Strategy仍然高踞榜首——843,775枚，按当下价格折算约580亿美元。这个数字本身就带着某种遥远的回响，让人想起2020年夏天微策略第一次买进比特币时的市场骚动。那之后数年，从萨尔瓦多到养老基金，从现货ETF获批到如今SpaceX也悄悄持有一万八千多枚，并在一个多月前登陆纳斯达克。比特币的机构化叙事，已经厚得让人几乎想不起它曾经只是密码朋克邮件组里的一个白皮书附件。
但屏幕的另一边，股价曲线却在讲着完全不同的故事。2026年以来，Riot Platforms上涨73%，Cleanspark上涨39%，Mara Holdings上涨31%；而Strategy反而下跌了40%，Metaplanet下跌49%，Twenty One Capital下跌48%，Coinbase Global下跌31%。持仓最多的，股价跌得最重；矿企们的涨势，又像是在回应某种对基础设施价值的重新定价。这中间的逻辑并不清晰，也不应该被简化为某个单一因果。也许只是杠杆结构、现金流压力、市场情绪轮动，也许只是夏天里一次漫长而寻常的价值重估。
外围的消息零零碎碎地流进来。比特币ETF周交易量已经跌至2024年10月以来的最低水平，以太坊ETF则刚刚结束了连续五天的资金流入，但周度净流入仍在延长——资金似乎更愿意去追逐那份后发的弹性。另一边，有地址以3855万USDT做多，持仓十八小时，最终在1%的止损线平仓离场，亏损36.8万美元，干净利落得像一场没有梦的午睡。没有重仓扛单的悲壮，也没有反手做空的戏剧性，只不过是一串数字在某个阈值被触碰后自动消失了。
整个市场仿佛进入了一种微妙的静默期。比特币的DeFi锁仓量在43.94亿美元附近微涨了0.72%，就像雨季过后湖面的水位慢慢上升，却看不出奔腾的迹象。而那个“一百万枚”的整数，本身也只不过是某个切面下的统计魔术——这些公司持有的比特币到底有多少是冷钱包里的长期筹码，有多少是衍生产品的底层资产，又有多少随时可能因为财报压力而被减持，没有人真正说得清楚。
上一个如此沉闷的夏天是2023年，再上一个是2019年。每一轮周期里，夏天总是显得格外漫长。持有者名单会变，持仓成本会变，股价的相对强弱也会变。唯一不太容易变化的，是那些静静躺在链上、每十分钟确认一次、偶尔因为一个大额转移而暂时惊动区块链浏览器的比特币本身。它们不会说话，也不关心自己是存在上市公司的金库还是匿名鲸鱼的钱包里。
当暑热最终退去，秋天的波动重新回到市场的时候，这份持仓榜单大概又会出现新的名字和新的数字。任何一个当下看起来不容撼动的结构，在时间面前都只是暂时。对于盯着屏幕的人，唯一需要记得的是：故事还没讲完，手里的仓位也还没有落定，而历史从不给出保证。Trump's $1.4 billion crypto income is killing the CLARITY Act
The bill can't pass, and the culprit is Trump himself
The CLARITY Act most likely won't make it before the August recess.
It's not a technical issue, nor a vote count issue; it's Trump's own $1.4 billion crypto income stuck in the way.
Bloomberg reported today: Trump earned about $1.4 billion from meme coins and token businesses, which has now become the biggest obstacle to passing the bill. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethics rules—the president can't issue tokens while legislating under his own government's regulation.
The Republicans only have 53 seats in the Senate, so to reach 60 votes, they need to bring at least 7 Democrats on board. But the Democrats are holding onto Trump's crypto income, causing a deadlock.
On Polymarket, the probability of passage has dropped from 74% in May to about 33%. The market is voting with money.
The irony is that the TRUMP coin issued by Trump himself has now become the stumbling block preventing him from pushing the crypto bill forward. The coin you issued is blocking your own bill.
This drama is still unfolding. But one thing is certain: the bill most likely won't pass before the August recess.
Discuss in the comments: do you think Trump will sell his coins for the bill, or would he rather keep them even if the bill fails? $BTC $ETH July 26 | BTC Data Evening Report
BTC market
BTC is quoted near $64,450, with an intraday high of about $64,566 and a low of about $64,028, up about 0.8% in 24 hours. The price continues to fluctuate around $64,000–$65,000, yet to break out of the recent consolidation range.
ETF funds
On July 24, the US spot BTC ETF saw a total net outflow of about $240.1 million, marking the second consecutive trading day of net outflows; From July 23 to 24, the cumulative net outflow was approximately $465.2 million.
The previous seven consecutive trading days of capital inflows have been interrupted, and institutional funds have shifted from continuous inflows to continuous withdrawals in the short term.
On-chain Tokens (Address Calibration)
Based on the consecutive snapshots from July 25 to 26:
Less than 10 BTC: net decrease of about 65 BTC, latest total holdings about 3.4722 million BTC
10–100 BTC: Net increase of about 182 BTC, latest total holdings about 4.2324 million BTC
Above 100 BTC: net increase of about 108 BTC, latest total holdings about 12.3542 million BTC
Internal changes above 100 BTC:
100–1,000 BTC: Net decrease of about 1,904 BTC
1,000–10,000 BTC: net increase of about 1,878 BTC
10,000–100,000 BTC: Net increase of about 134 BTC
Over 100,000 BTC: Basically unchanged
Total holdings above 100 BTC increased by only 108 BTC, but internal migration was obvious, mainly reflected in a decrease in the 100–1,000 BTC range, while the above 1,000 BTC level increased.
BTC exchange
The latest public snapshot shows that the total BTC balance across all exchanges is about 2.7032 million, with a net outflow of approximately 3,075 BTC.
Exchange balances remain in net outflows, diverging from ETFs for two consecutive days of net outflows: on-chain tradable tokens have decreased, but traditional funding channels have weakened in the short term.
Contract data
BTC contract open interest is about $48.53 billion, 24-hour contract turnover is about $19.696 billion, spot trading is about $1.124 billion, and BTC contract liquidation is about $6.366 million.
Open interest remains at a relatively high level, but weekend trading volume and liquidations are not large, so there is currently no obvious concentrated deleveraging in the market.
Important news today
Next week, the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively announce interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, Middle East developments pushed oil prices up to around $100 per barrel, energy prices renewed inflation expectations, and the market began to bet more on further rate hikes. High oil prices and expectations of high interest rates remain the most important external pressures for BTC in the near term.
BitMart announced the end of nine years of operations, with all trading halted on August 26 and officially shutting down on January 31, 2027; This is the second trading platform to announce its exit within a week, following BitMEX. BitMart previously reported a 24-hour turnover of about $1.6 billion, with consecutive exchange closures that may continue to affect market trust and capital concentration trends among small and medium-sized platforms.
Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, plans to establish crypto trading and custody infrastructure by December. Russia's new crypto trading, custody, and settlement rules will take effect in September, indicating that large traditional banks continue to enter the regulated crypto asset services sector, but the short-term direct impact on BTC liquidity is limited.
Next, let's focus on the main focus
Can BTC regain the $65,000 level and break through the recent resistance near $66,000?
Can ETFs resume net inflows after Monday's opening, or will continuous outflows expand further?
Will BTC exchanges continue to see net outflows, and whether addresses with 100–1,000 BTC will stop decreasing?
If oil prices remain near $100 and push U.S. Treasury yields higher, macro pressure on BTC is unlikely to ease significantly.
$BTC #星球日报 Bitcoin liquidity concentration: The altcoin season has not yet arrived; funds are circulating among a few coins
Has the current market formed a sustainable bullish structure, or is it driven solely by local leverage?
Core Fact: The original post clearly stated that the current market is not in an upward trend across the market, but rather liquidity circulating among limited coins. Funds are concentrated in a few tokens such as BTC, JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, and CHIP, while a large number of altcoins like BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, and RAVE are losing momentum. ETH, SOL, TAO, WLD, HYPE, DOGE, and ZEC are regarded as structural pillars, corresponding respectively to institutional capital, high beta risk appetite, AI narrative, risk appetite indicators, and retail investor rally pursuit.
Market structure changes: The core contradiction in current pricing is that BTC maintains liquidity anchoring at high levels, but the altcoins as a whole have not formed a synchronized rise. This has led to divergence in funding rates: BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain positive, but most altcoins have funding rates close to zero or even turned negative, indicating that leverage is more concentrated on BTC, with little sustained long position accumulation on the altcoin side. On the basis side, the BTC futures premium structure (Contango) still exists, but the margin has narrowed, suggesting the market is becoming more conservative in its outlook for forward gains.
Pricing transmission path: If BTC continues to consolidate sideways at the current level, it will be difficult for funds to spread outward to altcoins, because once liquidity is absorbed by BTC, altcoins will need to rely on lower valuations or stronger narratives to attract incremental capital. Conversely, if BTC experiences a significant pullback, it could trigger a bullish stamp, leading to concentrated leveraged liquidations and dragging down mainstream coins like ETH and SOL, resulting in a systemic correction. Among altcoins, highly liquid assets like JELLYJELLY and OPG may remain relatively strong during BTC consolidation, but stalled coins like BEAT and EDGE are likely to continue falling if they fail to receive new capital injections.
Biased bullish path and conditions: If the BTC funding rate remains positive and the basis widens again, it indicates that leveraged long positions continue to increase positions, and the market may be entering a localized trend continuation. At this point, it is important to observe whether JELLYJELLY, OPG, and others are experiencing sustained rallies after increased trading volume, and whether the stagnant coins are bottoming out with increased volume and stabilizing the decline. Bearish path and conditions: If BTC's funding rate quickly turns negative or the basis narrows below parity, it suggests that bull confidence is breaking down and may trigger chain liquidations. At the same time, be wary of the accelerated decline of stagnant coins, which could lead to a collapse in overall risk appetite on the counterfeit side.
Risk warning: The current market structure heavily relies on BTC liquidity anchorage. If BTC loses key support levels, it could trigger market-wide deleveraging. If stagnant coins continue to shrink in volume, it will be difficult to form an effective rebound.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $HYPE $DOGE #流动性集中 #杠杆结构 #山寨币分化📊 $LIT Quick Overview of Liquidations
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $50.73
· 4 hours: $2,484.51
· 12 hours: $5,236.94
· 24 hours: $27,600
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $0 $50.73 0%
4h $2,428.02 $56.50 97.7%
12h $5,022.43 $214.50 95.9%
24h $13,600 $14,000 49.3%
Duokong interpretation
Short liquidation in 1 hour was $50.73, long position was zero, very small scale; 4-hour and 12-hour long liquidations continue to crush short positions (accounting for 95.9%~97.7%), with prices continuing to fall; However, within 24 hours, short liquidations at $14,000 narrowly overtook the market (accounting for 50.7%), reversing the direction within 12-24 hours and turning into a short squeeze and upward trend. Ultimate winner: Bulls—showing a pattern of "early long selling→ closing short reversal."
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.18% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 9.0% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 18.97% of 24 hours
The distribution of liquidations is obvious: the first 12 hours accounted for only 18.97%, while the 24-hour total volume is 5.27 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that short squeezes surged fiercely between the 12-24 hours (about $22,400 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 81.0% of the whole day). Currently, the market is in the stage of a short squeeze outbreak, with concentrated liquidations on short positions and closing sessions, so attention should be paid to its sustainability.
A one-sentence explanation
$LIT 24-hour short liquidation $14,000, accounting for 50.7% of the total, reversed direction, and the bulls ultimately prevailed.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress ━━━ Night Review · 2026-07-26 ━━━
Shadow Shaman · Hunters on the chain
At the end of the day, logic remains.
🧭 Today's panorama
→ BTC $64,554 24h: +0.86% · ETH $1,888 24h: +1.71% · SOL $74.92
→ Today's Volatility: BTC 0.64K ($63,996-$64,637)
→ Trading volume: BTC $1.87B · Funding rate: BTC 0.001% / ETH 0.001%
📊 Structural changes
• OI: $2.035B (31,524 BTC), no significant increase or decrease throughout the day
• Funding rate: Both currencies have rates at <0.0011%, at an absolute low with no directional pressure
• BTC Premium: -0.055% (slight discount), bears slightly taking the initiative but showing no aggressive intent
🔥 Today's highlights
• #1 DCA (BSC) +9.11% — 24-hour gain over 4000%, but MCap only $184K, 42% of shares share the same source, showing obvious signs of manipulation
• #2 PONS (XLayer) +5.59% — MCap $54.6 million, one of the largest memes in the XLayer ecosystem, saw a slight rise today
• TRUMP2028 (Solana) +1.29% — 5,306 token-holding addresses, maintaining popularity but with modest gains
• BullPad (Solana) -27.47% — Previously surging memes experienced a deep pullback today, a typical "catch knife scene"
⚡ Smart money flows
• Smart money on Solana today mainly focused on SalaryCat (bought at $1,487), but has already sold 70%, showing a clear pattern of fast in and out of stock
• Justice For Sara Gilson (Sara) was chased by 10 smart money addresses, with 82% having sold out
• Overall, Smart Money was doing short-term harvesting in the Solana meme layer with a "grab a hand, then exit" strategy, with no intention to hold overnight
💡 Shadows recoil
BTC followed a standard contracting sideways movement today—$64K spent the day within 40 points. OI remains unchanged, rates are flat, and premiums are discounted but only slightly increased, indicating that both bulls and bears are controlling their positions. Guessing the direction at this position is no different from guessing a coin; the bulls haven't exerted momentum, and the bears haven't broken through.
Memes on the hot topic side are lively, but the DCA market with 42% of the same source is clearly a trap—whoever chases the most here is caught by a flying knife. Smart money showed no intention of staying overnight at the Solana meme level today; after the rally, it left. This sentiment transmitted to the main board signaled "no incremental funds entering the market."
Tonight, I chose to continue observing. If BTC can shrink above $64K and grind for another day, the structure would actually be healthier. No matter how sharp or down, I won't take it.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📡 Shadow Shaman · Hunters on the chain
#暗影萨满🔥 从46干到142又摔回79！$OKB 这波不是回调，是把韭菜按在地上摩擦后递了根烟！
宝子们，7月这波$OKB 剧本，谁看了不迷糊？
📉 月初（7月初那根针）：还在46刀躺平装死。
🔥 然后OKX一把火：烧掉2.789亿枚$OKB ，总量永久焊死在2100万枚。
🚀 价格直接火箭发射：飙到142.88刀，一根193%的天量针，把空头全部送走。
💀 然后呢？：跌回79附近，磨了快三周。24h成交量缩到5000多万，散户全在问“是不是完了？”
#OKX.ai：一个人就是一家世界级公司
---
🧬 我跟你讲，这走势野得很，背后是三个硬逻辑在打架：
1. 供给端：OKX把比特币的稀缺剧本抄明白了
2100万总量锁死，智能合约把增发和人工销毁全封了。X Layer的Gas还在持续微量烧。这意味着什么？OKB不会再生了，只会越来越少。 交易所币搞固定总量，历史上你见过几个？
2. 需求端：押注全生态，不成功便成仁
OKX把OKT Chain砍了，全部押注X Layer（Polygon CDK的zkEVM）。OKB变成全生态唯一燃料+手续费折扣+Jumpstart门票。ICE（纽交所亲爹）还进来站了个位。这不是画饼，这是在搭台子。
3. 盘面：典型的暴涨后洗筹，等大哥发话
50日线79刀踩着，200日线88刀压着，RSI 56不冷不热。这就是被夹在中间反复摩擦，洗那些不坚定的人下车。
#OKX星球话题来啦
---
🗣️ 我的糙话版结论：
喊“归零”的，你醒醒。2100万总量+全生态Gas的交易所币，历史上没有先例。
喊“马上破200”的，你也别做梦。BTC不配合、X Layer日活没起来之前，79-82这个磨人区间还得待一阵。
现在是什么阶段？
恐惧贪婪指数曾经掉到23（极度恐惧），散户在割肉，大户在犹豫。典型的“涨了不敢追、跌了不敢接”的拧巴阶段。
OKB不是垃圾平台币了，是被OKX硬生生改造成“交易所版BTC”的怪胎。短期被大盘拖着走，中期看X Layer有没有真用户，长期就看2100万这个数字够不够讲故事。
👇 现在问题来了：
你觉得OKB这波是真跌透了准备二段发射，还是假摔完继续在78-82锯木头？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
走势图解析：
1. 长期趋势：前期从104.63高位完成深度熊市下跌，最大回撤超30%
2. 短期结构：70见底后开启修复反弹，现价站上全部短期均线，短期多头力量回暖
3. 压力支撑：上方第一压力85，下方支撑81-82（MA5/MA10均线）📊 JUST IN: Saylor Hints At More Bitcoin, But The Reality Is Sharper Now
"We're gonna need another color." Classic Saylor confidence, posted with a dashboard of Strategy's 843,775 BTC. But the numbers behind that swagger tell a harder story than the meme suggests.
📉 Where it stands:
Holdings: 843,775 BTC
Average cost: $75,653
Unrealized loss: about 14.8%, roughly $9.5 billion
Q2 digital asset loss: $8.32 billion, mostly unrealized
Here's what actually changed, and it matters. The "never sell" narrative is over. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC in early July for about $216 million, using the proceeds to fund preferred stock dividends and rebuild its dollar reserve. This followed a formal Bitcoin monetization program launched June 29 that lets the company sell up to $1.25 billion of BTC to cover obligations. A company built on the promise of relentless accumulation is now selling to pay its bills. That is a real shift, not a headline.
None of this means the long-term thesis is broken, and that's the honest takeaway. These losses are unrealized, the CFO says the reserve could cover net debt even if BTC fell 91%, and Strategy has still added coins across the cycle. The lesson worth borrowing is conviction and dollar-cost averaging over years, using capital you won't need tomorrow. The lesson to avoid is the leverage, the forced sales, and treating one confident tweet as a buy signal.
What to watch:
Whether Strategy keeps selling under the monetization program or resumes buying.
The health of its preferred stock and any pressure on MSTR shares, down 77% from the high.
A confident post from the biggest holder is not a catalyst. Respect the conviction, watch the balance sheet, because structure decides who survives a bear market.
Conviction that pays off, or a model meeting its limits?
Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL The list of bankruptcies continues to grow!
On July 23, @BitMEX announced that its operations would be closed starting from 04:00:00 UTC on September 23, 2026.
On July 24, @odosprotocol announced that the app would switch to read-only mode on July 27, and all Odos services would be permanently shut down on July 30, 2026.
July 25 @dango announced the termination of the project. On Wednesday, August 13, at 12:00 UTC, the Dango L1 blockchain will cease operations.
On July 25, Poolin @officialpoolin, once the world's largest Bitcoin mining pool, filed for bankruptcy.
July 26 @BitMartExchange Announced that all trading services will cease on August 26, 2026, 01:00 UTC. On January 31, 2027, 15:59 UTC: Platform operations will officially cease.
Looking at these death lists, there are basically two types of deaths:
1⃣ Fake demand is exposed; in a bull market, just start financing with infrastructure or aggregators, but in a bear market, it's clear there is no commercial closed loop.
2⃣ Leverage backfired, and Coinyin, which seemed stable as a leveraged method, was also wiped out. It could have jumped on this AI wave and sold at a good price, but unfortunately, it died before dawn.
In the second half of a bear market, if you can hold your capital and avoid pitfalls, you've already outperformed 90% of people.📊 $ZEC Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $3,530.82
· 4 hours: $49,000
· 12 hours: $191,600
· 24 hours: $574,100
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $3,530.82 $0 100%
4h $4,686.80 $44,300 9.6%
12h $11,400 $180,200 5.9%
24h $93,900 $480,200 16.4%
Duokong interpretation
100% of the 1-hour long liquidations ($3,530.82) were made, but the scale was so small that it could be ignored; From the 4-hour onward, short liquidation suddenly crushed the bulls (accounting for 90.4%), initiating a short squeeze rally; The 12-hour short position ratio reached as high as 94.1%, the most intense short squeeze of the day; Within 24 hours, short positions were liquidated at $480,200 (83.7%), with short squeezes continuing into the later stages. Ultimate winner: Bulls—showing a pattern of "short-term disturbances → persistent extreme short squeezes," with bears suffering devastating liquidation.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.62% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 8.54% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 33.38% of 24 hours
Liquidations are concentrated in the 12-hour cycle (about one-third), but the total 24-hour volume is 3.00 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating a sharp escalation of short squeezes in the 12-24 hours (about $382,500 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 66.6% of the day). Currently, the market is at the peak of a short squeeze, with bears suffering heavy losses, but after extreme gains, caution is needed to be aware of the risk of sharp pullbacks.
A one-sentence explanation
$ZEC 24-hour short liquidation at $480,200, accounting for 83.7% of the total, with short squeezes dominating and upgrades in the later stages, the bulls winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress Trump reported $1.4B+ in crypto income for 2025.
Breakdown from his financial disclosure:
$635M — $TRUMP meme coin sales
$770M— World Liberty Financial
$520M from token sales
$250M from selling business interests
That’s a 9x jump from last year. Crypto is now his largest source of income.
Meanwhile the Senate can’t move the CLARITY Act.
Democrats argue you can’t have a president regulating crypto while making $1B+ from it.
Republicans argue the bill shouldn’t be written around one person.
The current draft would ban sitting officials from issuing or sponsoring new digital assets.
But it doesn’t fully address family-run projects.
Conflict or not — this is why ethics is holding up the biggest crypto bill in years.
NFA. DYOR. Watch the disclosures, not just the charts.
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause #EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause Is the crypto world really tough? Or did the US stock market show its weakness first? In the short term, it's exciting to watch, but don't rush to catch up on the signal—whoever acts impulsively in this market will suffer.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 64,440 +0.57% $ETH 1,885 +1.24%
$QQQ -1.12% $SPY +0.10% $IBIT -0.82%
$DXY +0.03% $GLD +0.10%
Crude oil and Hormuz have been shivering, and inflation expectations have never been honest. The crypto world and ETFs are still competing over risk appetite, but once the old scripts of AI and semiconductors flip the page, $QQQ's mood switch can instantly split the entire market. Qian clearly shifted toward defense, $QQQ that bit of energy couldn't hold the court at all.
$ETH Today is more elastic than $BTC, and risk appetite is still struggling to push upward, but $IBIT is a bit weaker than spot trading. ETF funds entering the market have narrowed down, indicating spot stocks aren't as aggressive. $DXY Heads are stubbornly suppressed by risk assets, $GLD still in the red, haven't even escaped all the hedging funds, just keeping a backup plan.
A barrage of analysis is fierce as a tiger, but whether the market rises or falls, Trump is still watched. Don't rush to bet; wait for clearer signals. Whoever shows weakness first will set the direction first. Let's wait and see.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零Recently, market sentiment has warmed up, and $SHIB has seen a strong rebound. In just two trading days, the price started around $0.0000042, reaching a high of $0.0000058, with a maximum increase of nearly 36% during the range. Its market capitalization rose by about $1 billion simultaneously, reassembling it among the top 30 crypto assets by market cap. Many people simply attribute this round of rally to MEME sector rotational speculation, but considering on-chain, tokenomics, and capital flow data, the market-driven logic is far more complex than surface sentiment. First, let's review SHIB's underlying token framework, which is the foundation for understanding all market trends. The initial total supply of SHIB was 1,000 trillion, with 500 trillion transferred to the Vitalik burn address during launch, laying the foundation for the project's deflationary nature. As of the latest Shibburn on-chain statistics, the total amount burned has reached 410.84 trillion, accounting for 41.08% of the original supply, permanently deprived of the circulating market; Currently, the circulating market supply remains at 589.16 trillion coins. Many market participants tend to misunderstand that continuous burning will quickly cause supply shortages. Objective data clearly shows that early burns exceeding 400 trillion were concentrated in 2021, a one-time large-scale burn, with daily community burns relatively limited in the past year. On the eve of this rally, the daily regular burn volume mostly stayed in the millions of tokens, but during the market kickoff, the 24-hour burn rate surged by up to 1400%, with 6.75 million tokens burned in a single day, and the burning frenzy rapidly heating up.Many players are used to speculating on MEME and AI hot coins, so switching to $OKB easily leads to pitfalls. They often wonder: why does the hot market keep surging, but OKB often remains lukewarm? Today, let's break down and talk about the underlying gameplay of this platform coin. Let's start with the underlying background: OKB is the native token of the OKX exchange, and has long been more than just a simple exchange points. In the early days, its main functions were fee deductions and participation in new token subscriptions on platforms; A major upgrade followed, with a permanent lock of 21 million tokens, completely closing the new minting channel, and making it the native gas token of the X Layer 2 network. Simply put, OKB has a dual value foundation: on one hand, it relies on centralized exchange transaction fee buyback and burning; on the other, it undertakes the development needs of the second-layer public chain ecosystem. Compared to altcoins that tell stories out of thin air, they have real and continuous business cash flow as a foundation, which is the fundamental reason for their stronger resilience during bear markets. Let's clarify the core logic of the current market: hot small coins rely on speculative funds for short-term rallying, causing sentiment to surge continuously; But OKB's price is tightly tied to two things: the exchange's overall trading volume and the large-scale ecosystem event launched by the official team. During market frenzy, funds favor highly elastic theme coins and look down on platform coins with slow paces; But once the market falls into volatility and market risks rise, funds start clustering together with platform coins to hedge risks. This creates its unique trending feature: it's hard to surge in prices, and big drops often lag behind the knockoffs. It's hard to see a single-day main upward wave of 20 to 30 points; more of it is a volatile upward movement and repeated pull-up cycles. A few that can be tracked in the future⚠️🏅 $YGG /USDT Market Alert 📊
YGG is holding around $0.0186 with improving sentiment. Support lies near $0.0180, while resistance is around $0.0195 and $0.0205. 🎯 Target: $0.0195 → $0.0205 → $0.0220. 🎯 Stop Loss: $0.0177. 🛑 Next Move: A breakout above $0.0195 could spark fresh bullish momentum, while losing support may trigger a short-term pullback. 💯#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #KoreaAIChipPush 📊 $OKB Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $153.74
· 4 hours: $158.06
· 12 hours: $158.06
· 24 hours: $37,600
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $0 $153.74 0%
4h $0 $158.06 0%
12h $0 $158.06 0%
24h $0 $37,600 0%
Duokong interpretation
Short liquidations account for 100% of the cycles, while long liquidations account for zero, indicating an extreme unilateral short squeeze upward trend. In the first 12 hours, liquidation was extremely small (about $154~$158), with mild short squeezes initiating; 24-hour liquidation surged to $37,600, with short squeeze conditions exploding in 12-24 hours. Ultimate winner: Bulls—Bearish and late trading face concentrated and devastating liquidation.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.41% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 0.42% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 0.42% of 24 hours
Liquidation distribution is extremely late: the first 12 hours accounted for only 0.42%, while the total 24-hour volume is about 238 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that the short squeeze market exploded in the latter half. Currently, the market is at the peak of a short squeeze, with concentrated liquidations on short positions at the close, but after extreme gains, caution is needed regarding the risk of sharp corrections.
A one-sentence explanation
$OKB 24-hour short liquidation at $37,600, accounting for 100%, followed by explosive upgrades in the following 12 hours, with bulls winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress $BTC futures demand is increasing further. The positive value of futures demand indicates that real demand is emerging.
However, spot demand remains negative. Total demand is negative because the negative value of spot demand is larger.
A real rally must be accompanied by real demand. Currently, real demand is occurring in the futures market but futures market is still negative demand.
A real rally will begin when real demand emerges in the spot market.Is this really the true "Altcoin Season," or just another emotional pump "noise"?👀
On the surface, the green boards turning red and localized surges have sharply heated up the market's FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment. However, the true hallmark of altcoin season is **a broad market rally with liquidity spreading comprehensively**. What we are experiencing now is merely a **brutal rotation** of existing funds among a very limited number of tokens, rather than an overall expansion of incremental capital.
Main funds are highly concentrated in a few top assets, while the vast majority of tokens cannot sustain continuous buying support.
### 📊 Liquidity camp division and chip structure
* **Strong capital absorption zone (stock focus)**: $BTC, $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP
* **Momentum maintenance zone (localized heat)**: $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS
* **Momentum decline/stagnation zone (lack of buying)**: $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA
### 🏛️ Core asset anchors and value reassessment
| Asset | Market Role and Positioning | Latest Status / Reference Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| **$BTC** | **King of Liquidity 👑** | Currently at **$64,530** (up 0.92% intraday), total crypto market cap remains at **$2.18 trillion**, still the absolute anchor of the market. |
| **$ETH** | **Institutional Application Playground** | Currently near **$1,880**, increasing staking locks continue to reduce spot selling pressure. |
| **$SOL** | **High Beta Elastic Bet** | Ecosystem activity remains high, still the primary battlefield for seeking excess returns beyond the broader market. |
| **$TAO / $WLD** | **AI Narrative Dual Leaders** | Deeply tied to OpenAI and the latest dynamics in the global semiconductor supply chain. |
| **$HYPE** | **Risk Appetite Barometer** | Core indicator measuring the flow of high-leverage and high-risk appetite capital. |
| **$DOGE / $ZEC** | **Retail Sentiment and Privacy Battle** | Reflects the fluctuations of retail risk appetite and privacy avoidance sentiment like a mirror. |
### 📰 Macro drivers and news catalysts
1. **Regulatory bill delay (#CLARITYActStalled):**
The U.S. Congress's "CLARITY Act" (H.R. 3633) on crypto market structure has been postponed in the Senate agenda until after the August recess due to conflicts of interest and strict ethics review clauses. This policy uncertainty makes large compliant institutions more cautious about fully deploying altcoins.
2. **Temporary easing of geopolitical tensions (#USIranStrikePause):**
The U.S. has paused strikes on specific Middle East facilities with no new military escalations, easing macro risk-off sentiment. The oil price decline provides breathing room for the crypto market.
> **The harsh truth:** True altcoin season only arrives when liquidity spreads fully and market participation explodes synchronously across all sectors, not when just 5 tokens dominate the headlines.
>
Until then: **Strictly control risk, follow capital flows, and decisively reject FOMO chasing.** 📈
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause It's been four years since it was this quiet, guys. The ancient whales who entered in 2017 finally stopped selling their stocks. It's not that they won't smash, it's just that they can't move anymore. Those who should have run have already left. Just seeing the data, dormant $BTC activity has dropped to its lowest point since Q3 2022. What does that mean? Back in 2022, it had just crashed from 69,000, and everyone played dead together. Here it comes again. To be honest, this is more true than any technical indicator. Think about it: when $BTC surged to over 100,000 at the end of last year, OGs were selling like crazy, and all the coins that had been sitting in their wallets for seven or eight years were revived. After cashing in that wave of profits, they either have no stock left or only zero-cost positions left. With zero-cost $BTC, why are people in such a hurry? No rush to sell. This is the tacit understanding of the market. Large funds remain stagnant, while small funds run wild. While the altcoin season is having fun, mainstream coins are actually quite stable. I checked on-chain data, and in the past month, the number of old coins moving was pitifully low. Last time it was this quiet, what happened afterward? After four months of sideways movement, a major bullish candlestick broke through the sky. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this time will be the same. But one thing is clear: selling pressure is really exhausting. When $BTC dropped a few months ago, I told them not to panic, and now I still say the same thing. If the big game really collapses, the OGs won't be this calm. They are the most sensitive and run faster than anyone. What does the collective pretend to be dead now mean? It means the real panic has not yet arrived. Brothers who are short sellers, think carefully—right in front of you is the most reluctant group of holders in the world. If they don't sell, where can you borrow coins to throw them away? Of course, a bull market doesn't come overnightWell-known trader Kla tweeted that Bitcoin's cycle is accelerating. In the previous cycle, it took only 476 days to go from bottom to record high, much faster than the previous two rounds. He expects this round to break the previous high ahead of the next halving.
To be honest, the trend of shortening cycles is already quite obvious. The reasons behind this are not hard to guess—institutional funds, ETFs, and macro liquidity are flowing in, causing the market to react much faster than before. Combined with social media and leverage tools, the speed of sentiment and price transmission is simply not on the same level. The old stereotype of "every four years a bull and bear" might really need to be changed now.
However, acceleration has two sides. On one hand, if you're still waiting for some "standard right-side signal," you might miss out on a significant rally in the blink of an eye; On the other hand, acceleration means a stronger pullback, and the probability of getting stuck after chasing highs rises sharply. So instead of getting caught up in left and right sides, it's better to manage your positions well, build positions in batches, set stop-losses, and don't let emotions run wild. As for his mention of "new highs before the halving," I think it's quite likely, but that doesn't mean a big pit won't be hit first. In short, focusing on macro data and capital flows is far more reliable than stubbornly stubbornly obsessing over historical patterns. 😂 📊 $XAUT Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $194.64
· 4 hours: $194.64
· 12 hours: $5,107.83
· 24 hours: $36,000
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $0 $194.64 0%
4h $0 $194.64 0%
12h $60.82 $5,047.01 1.2%
24h $30,800 $5,176.69 85.6%
Duokong interpretation
In the first 12 hours, short liquidation crushed long positions (short positions accounted for 98.8%~100%), and prices continued to rise; Within 24 hours, long positions were liquidated at $30,800, strongly overtaking (accounting for 85.6%), with a sharp reversal occurring within 12-24 hours, turning into a one-sided downtrend. Ultimate winner: Bears—showing a pattern of "short squeeze upward→ surge and pullback, extreme long selling."
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.54% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 0.54% of 24 hours
· 12 hours account for 14.2% of 24 hours
Liquidation distribution is extremely late: the first 12 hours accounted for only 14.2%, while the 24-hour total is 7.05 times the 12-hour volume, indicating a strong burst in the 12-24 hours (about $30,900 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 85.8% of the day). Currently, the market is in a bear-led sustained sharp decline, and in the short term, attention should be paid to technical recovery signals after oversold conditions.
A one-sentence explanation
$XAUT 24-hour long liquidation at $30,800, accounting for 85.6% of the total, with an early short squeeze followed by extreme bullish selling at the close, with bears winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress SK海力士
海力士股价剧烈波动，但AI服务器并没有因此少装一块HBM。
SK海力士正向主要客户送样12层HBM4E，并与英伟达推进下一代AI内存合作，增长逻辑也从HBM扩展至AI DRAM、NAND和企业级SSD。AI算力建设仍然是长期顺风，但市场开始担心：当前存储价格和利润率是否已接近周期高位，以及三星、美光扩产后会不会重新带来价格竞争。
美股ADR近期在156美元附近剧烈震荡，相对韩国普通股还存在明显溢价，这意味着投资者不仅在押注公司，也在为稀缺性付费。技术面关注150至153美元支撑，跌破后看145美元；上方164至170美元是主要压力。
海力士的长期逻辑没有消失，但短期最危险的，可能正是“好消息人人都知道”。你认为这是AI内存的黄金坑，还是存储周期转向前的提醒？
$SKHY #SK海力士 #HBM #AI