Orbit Post Sitemap
"DataHunter Crypto Research Report"· July 27, 2026
Understanding the market with data
📊 1. Market Panorama
BTC is currently quoted at 65,200 USDT, up 24 hours +1.4%. OKX market data shows it has broken through the 65,000 mark in the early morning. ETH is at 1,949 USDT, up +4.1% in 24 hours, clearly outperforming BTC.
The Fear and Greed Index rose to 30, up from yesterday's 26, but still in the "Fear" range.
In the past 24 hours, there were $215 million in margin calls across the network, including $54.82 million for long positions and $160 million for short positions. Bitcoin short liquidations amounted to $34.73 million, Ethereum liquidations amounted to $85.18 million. A total of 56,495 people worldwide were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation valued at $9.35 million.
📍 2. Market trends
After two days of volatility over the weekend, BTC stabilized and rebounded near 63,600 in the early morning, with bullish funds continuing to enter and the price strongly pushing to the 65,300 level. Currently, the price is firmly holding above the 65,000 mark.
On the daily chart, MA5 is at 64,818, and MA10 is at 65,157, with the price positioned between two moving averages, with the short-term moving averages convergeing. The 4-hour MACD histogram is above the zero line, but DIF and DEA remain in negative territory, indicating that the rebound is currently within a bearish trend and a reversal has not yet been confirmed. The 1-hour MACD histogram has expanded, and short-term bullish momentum continues to strengthen.
Key locations:
· Resistance above: 65,900-66,900 (previous high area), 67,000-68,000
· Support below: 64,700-64,200 (pullback to lower long range), 63,600 (recent pullback low)
🌍 3. Rebound Driver: U.S.-Iran Easing Triggers a Rebound in Risk Appetite
The core driving force behind this round of rebound is signs of easing geopolitical tensions.
On July 26 local time, the Iranian military stated that the U.S. had ceased its strikes against Iran over the past two nights, and Iran's reciprocal strikes were also suspended. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that recent talks on safe shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz were "productive and made some progress." Trump's decision not to expand military operations against Iraq has eased concerns about an immediate escalation in the region.
As a result, international oil prices fell sharply in the gray market, and risk assets rebounded across the board. The cryptocurrency market surged collectively—Bitcoin climbed back above 65,000, Ethereum rose over 4%, ZEC gained over 4%, DOGE rose about 2%, and Solana gained nearly 3%.
However, it should be noted that the Strait of Hormuz is currently still "closed," and navigation conditions have not yet changed. Iran also stated that whether the U.S. withdraws from the war "will depend on Israel's consent." Geopolitical risks have not been completely eliminated; they are only cooling in the short term.
📌 4. Other important developments
BitMart has seen a stagnation in large withdrawals. Following the announcements of shutdowns by BitMEX and BitMart, large withdrawals on BitMart have stalled, sparking market concerns about a crisis of trust in exchanges. A mix of positive and negative news cast a shadow over the rebound.
Zhao Changpeng: Acquiring centralized exchanges carries high security risks. In response to "Why not acquire small CEXs?", CZ stated that acquiring centralized exchanges is different from other businesses. Once a hacker attack occurs, it is difficult to determine whether it is a backdoor left by the previous team or a new issue, and security and compliance risks are higher.
📝 5. Operating Framework
The current sentiment recovery is driven by geopolitical easing and is not a trend reversal. The 4-hour level is still in a rebound phase within the bearish structure.
Above 65,000, you can hold a light position and hold long, targeting 65,900-66,900. A pullback to the 64,700-64,200 range may be worth considering for low bullish positions. If stagflation signals appear near 66,800-66,900 above, short-term speculation can be used to test the price on a pullback.
The biggest variable this week is the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Before the direction is clear, it's recommended to control positions—not taking positions is part of trading.
DataHunter | Understanding the market with dataUS spot BTC and ETH ETFs both saw net outflows on the latest full trading day, but BTC did not accelerate further decline; instead, it returned to around $65,000. This indicates that the current market is not simply "ETF outflows equaling price drops," but rather a rebalancing between institutional funds, spot demand, on-chain chips, and macro expectations. 1. ETF outflows reflect caution and do not equate to full withdrawal. ETF funds will be dynamically adjusted based on price, macro conditions, and risk budgets. Continuous outflows indicate that institutions have cooled their short-term stance, but data from just a few trading days is not enough to confirm that long-term allocation demand has reversed. Especially as the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, it is not uncommon for funds to reduce risk in advance. The real key is whether ETFs can resume inflows after the meeting. 2. The price has not lost control, indicating that BTC continues to fluctuate after ETF funds weakened, without quickly breaking below the previously formed support area. This means there are still bottom-fishing funds and passive buying forces in the market, and short-term chips have not fully loosened. But consolidation can only prevent rapid declines and cannot directly drive the trend upward. To break through the aboveward resistance, stronger active buying is still needed. 3. The biggest issue in this round of rebound remains insufficient spot demand. Glassnode pointed out that although BTC has clearly recovered from its lows, spot trading and on-chain activity remain weak. This means that this round of rally has not yet attracted widespread market participation, and is more reflected in reduced selling pressure, institutional returns, and position recovery. If spot demand cannot expand,📌 How real is this matter? A wave of price hikes triggered by the upstream supply chain has finally burned from memory and solid-state drives to graphics cards. Recently, Nvidia's RTX 50 series graphics cards have been widely out of stock worldwide, with prices skyrocketing; According to channel sources, NVIDIA has issued price increase notices to AIC partners, and all graphics card brand factories have fully locked down warehouses and suspended shipments. A more direct figure is: GDDR6 memory prices have tripled from $2.5/GB to $7.5/GB; Based on the mainstream 8GB configuration, the raw material cost of VRAM alone for a single graphics card is about 560 yuan higher. For those waiting for price cuts, the era of graphics card price cuts has temporarily ended. 💡 Why it happens: AI is draining capacity—the root cause is not hype, but structural imbalance. Samsung and SK Hynix are reallocating over 70% of their DRAM production capacity to make HBM high-bandwidth memory for AI, while GDDR memory for gaming graphics cards is being squeezed out, with the gap passing through the supply chain to consumers step by step. As mentioned earlier, Changxin Technology's HBM4 tape-out and sample delivery to Huawei is meaningful—whoever can fill the supply gap between HBM and domestic DRAM will hold the crucial point of AI computing power. In short: AI demand is so intense that the entire memory industry's capacity is being "drained" to feed HBM. 🔗 Returning to crypto: The cost of AI computing power on both sides The previous articles discussed AI's "demand side burning money"—the five giants' 1.65 trillion yuan off-balance-sheet debt, Google's negative free cash flow, both insufficient for AI investment by the giants themselves. This post is supplementary📊 $ETH s relative strength today deserves attention.
$ETH has gained roughly 3x more than BTC over the past 24 hours, and with the Iran strike pause helping risk appetite return, the move appears more driven by positioning and capital rotation than by a fresh narrative shift.
Historically, $ETH strength can appear ahead of broader altcoin momentum—but whether this is the start of a larger rotation or simply a short-term catch-up move remains uncertain.
The macro environment still presents challenges.
Lower jobless claims may reduce pressure for the Fed to accelerate rate cuts, keeping real yields elevated and limiting the liquidity conditions crypto typically needs for a sustained rally.
This week’s earnings from major companies like Google and Tesla could also influence broader risk sentiment. Any signs of slowing growth could impact the current market rebound.
For now, confirmation matters. A single strong session doesn’t necessarily define a new trend.
Just my market view, not financial advice.
#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch Papers to be submitted starting Wednesday.
The lingering heat of the weekend has yet to subside, and Changxin's IPO has sent memory memory sentiment to a fever pitch. What truly determines global risk appetite is the quarterly reports from US tech giants in recent days. Microsoft and Meta are expected to submit their data on July 29, with Amazon and Apple following around the 30th. The AI capital expenditure drama has been sung for half a year and still needs to be smashed. This week, it's finally the turn of cloud business, advertising, devices, and services to be laid out and criticized.
Alphabet and Tesla had already started their rounds around July 22: on one hand, the annual Capex was pushed to nearly $200 billion, while on the other, revenue hit record but profits were criticized by the market. Investors' patience is already being exhausted. Microsoft is paying for the Azure and OpenAI ecosystems; Meta wants to prove that its advertising engine can withstand the raging infrastructure fire; Amazon examines the balance between AWS and retail cash flow; Apple, on the other hand, relates to device cycles, service stickiness, and its stance on the pace of AI capital. Four companies issued in succession, essentially completing the entire AI cash flow chain—from spending money to monetization—all in one go.
Because the narrative has long shifted to 'who can hit it and then reclaim it.' Data centers, power, HBM, and advanced process orders are still in place, but the public market is simultaneously penalizing valuations; Oil prices once hovered near several hundred dollars, with geography and inflation expectations intertwined. On earnings night reporting night, besides revenue beats or misses, management also asks whether management dares to further raise the capex and clearly explain the return path.
At the same time, rumors also surfaced that NVIDIA and OpenAI were negotiating about $250 billion in financing guarantees to help lease about 10GW of data centers in Ohio—the financial structure of the arms race is tightening, but patience with financial statements is growing weaker. With these two forces colliding, this week's conference call is the pressure valve.
The stories in TSMC's supply chain never stop: advanced processes are fully loaded, packaging is tight, and AI-related revenue is rising. But valuations often get discounted in recent weeks—orders are still in customer guidance, but the stock price first reflects 'Will Capex be cut, will project launches be delayed?' When an American hyperscaler coughs, Taiwanese chains often first check their temperature. So the conference calls with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are almost a simultaneous stress test for Asian semiconductors.
The pace of armaments can keep moving faster,
Patient reports will be re-priced this week.
After the series ends, the market will split: who's building the future, and who's just burning cash.Changxin Storage's IPO surged, igniting enthusiasm for domestic storage, but the market has already started pricing in long-term capacity competition pressure, with SK Hynix facing sustained short-term pressure.
The mid-to-long-term logic of AI driving storage demand remains unchanged, but the short-term market continues to be suppressed by expectations of new capacity.
Reminder: Changxin's surge ≠ overseas storage strengthening simultaneously. Closely monitor key support levels; trend reversal requires clear signal confirmation.
#SK海力士 #存储芯片 #半导体 #长鑫存储The candle is red, but your warehouse isn't? This is the moment when you should be most clear-headed 🌙
Have you ever felt that the market is clearly rising, but your account feels like it's being paused?
Today I saw an interesting phenomenon: everyone is shouting "Knockoff season is here" because a few coins really soared high. But if you zoom in on the screen, you'll find this is not a spring at all; it's more like a brief dew of flow circling on a few leaves. Behind those rising coins is the same batch of funds repeatedly turning, not new money pouring into the entire garden.
Recently, when reviewing my positions, my strongest feeling is that the market is cleverly focusing its attention on a very small number of winners, making most people mistakenly believe "the opportunity has arrived." But the truth is, many established projects are still declining. This is not a bull market where everyone gets evenly matched, but rather a highly selective liquidity screening.
If you must draw a logical chain, it would look like this:
- Event: BTC stabilizes + individual altcoins erupt -> sentiment is ignited, FOMO begins to spread.
- But the second level of impact is: the funds have not spread outward; instead, they have become more concentrated. BTC serves as a liquidity anchor, while ETH and SOL represent institutions and high beta, and their strength actually absorbed most of the capital. Those knockoffs not on the "core list" are still bleeding.
- What the market is truly trading is not "all altcoins will rise," but "which coins can survive this liquidity battle." This is more like a survival game than a group celebration.
The bullish path is: if BTC remains above key levels and ETH or SOL breaks out, sentiment will spread further, and funds may spill out from core samples to other sectors. That's when the altcoin season truly begins.
The bearish risk is: if BTC suddenly pulls back, or the core asset starts to shrink in volume, this local rally will cool off instantly, and those chasing higher prices will stand at the peak.
My judgment is: now is not the time to chase the rally, but to observe which coins can maintain their structure after the capital wave retreats. Before liquidity spreads, patience is worth far more than excitement.
Ultimately, the market always rewards those willing to wait, not those who always rush to the front.
⚠️ This content is for personal observation and sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL #Altcoins #Liquidity #Patience🐶 $DOGE fell from its all-time high of $0.74 in May 2021 to $0.07, a drop of 90%. There was not a single clear crash, no black swan, no regulatory raids—just silently bleeding for three whole years.
🚨 Even more ironically, other meme coins were still rallying at the same time, while DOGE remained almost unmoved and showed no improvement. The project itself hasn't changed anything—still the same dog, still unlimited supply. No deflationary mechanisms, no technological upgrades, no narrative restructuring.
💀 This kind of "hidden fall" is the most dangerous. Without panic stampede, there is no clear signal of bottom-fishing and rebound. Holders endure continuous wear and tear in silence, liquidity slowly dries up, and emotions are worn down by time. Once the market turns bearish, these coins often fall the hardest and rebound the slowest.
📉 Memory is harsh: the market does not reward unchanging assets. DOGE's fundamentals have never changed, but the market's pricing of its enthusiasm has shifted. From 0.74 to 0.07, it wasn't a single crash, but a long liquidation.The biggest event in the A-share market today was Changxin Technology, which opened up over 500%, with its market value peaking at 3.4 trillion yuan. After pulling back, it hovered around 2.6 trillion yuan, directly topping the A-share market. Meanwhile, SK Hynix surged and then turned down. Many people say China Memory has defeated South Korea, but Sister Mu tells you, this drama isn't that simple. $BTC $ETH It's not about who beats whom, it's two pricing systems colliding. The A-share market is adding a scarcity premium to domestic substitution. Changxin is the world's fourth largest DRAM manufacturer with a 7.67% market share. Net profit in the first half of the year was 50 to 57 billion, with an annualized PE ratio of about 30 times. SKHYNIX's DRAM share was 34.48%, with a PE ratio of only about 16 times. Its market value was once overtaken by Changxin. A plant with a 4-5% share had its market value soaring to twice the size of SKHYNIX. This can't be explained by fundamentals; it's A-share liquidity squeezing premiums. The blood-draining theory is just surface. Funds chasing the leader suppressed SKHYNIX, but the pattern of a giant IPO opening high and then falling back on the first day is a fixed pattern. Don't use the opening price as a valuation anchor. The real signal lies beneath the surface—$SKHYNIX Changxin's revenue in the first half of the year was 110 to 120 billion, net profit 50 to 57 billion. This is the first time a domestic DRAM leader has gone public with real profits. The story of China's self-sufficiency in storage is the first time there is a tradable target. Previously, overseas capital couldn't get in, but now with channels, the supply landscape is changing. This is a long-term variable, not a day-trip excitement. Crypto players have already priced in advance. Hyperliquid is on CX$UB When the previous high was 0.24, circulating was 2.5 billion; now it's 4 billion, and in a few days, another 320 million will be unlocked. Yesterday, there was no large sell-off, but the price surged. Short-term momentum is insufficient, so it's adjusting.BTC led the gains, but liquidity was highly concentrated, and the market was not fully recovering
In the current upward trend, is capital really spreading?
The original post clearly pointed out that although the market was generally bullish today, the price rise was not accompanied by widespread capital inflows. Key facts include: BTC is currently the asset with the strongest liquidity absorption, ETH enjoys institutional preference, SOL remains a high-beta Layer 1 representative, while AI narrative coins like DATA, WLD, as well as HYPE, DOGE, and ZEC, map risk appetite, retail sentiment, and specific themes respectively. Meanwhile, a large number of tokens such as BEAT, EDGE, TRUMP, and VIRTUAL lack real buying support, with liquidity still concentrated in a few leading assets.
From a market structure perspective, this is not a rotation of funds to counterfeit assets, but rather a simultaneous convergence of safe-haven and speculative funds toward higher certainty. The cooling of Open Interest (open interest) accompanied by healthy trading volumes indicates that after derivatives leverage was cleared, spot traders did not retreat but became more selective. Capital behavior can be clearly divided into three categories: passive allocation and hedging needs for BTC/ETH, Beta speculation on mainstream L1s like SOL, and narrative-driven AI and meme themes. Most altcoins still lack real demand and rely heavily on short-term sentiment impulses.
In terms of pricing, BTC serves as a liquidity anchor. If its continued accumulation fails to drive ETH and SOL to follow suit, its rebound potential will be limited; If ETH and SOL take over, it may trigger a phased recovery for small-cap altcoins. The biased bullish path is: BTC stabilizes above key support, ETH and SOL begin to attract passive funds, and some leading altcoins (such as HYPE and WLD) gain liquidity spillover. The bearish risk lies in the fact that funds remain extremely concentrated, ETH/SOL fails to break out effectively, expanding the altcoin liquidity trap, and the current gains are maintained by only a few coins. If BTC pulls back, the overall market will face an even greater pullback.
Conclusion: The current market is pricing in a concentration of funds in certainty assets, rather than a full recovery. A valid rally requires at least seeing active buying spread between ETH and SOL; otherwise, one should watch for altcoins rather than chase the rally. Failure Condition: BTC breaks below short-term key support, or ETH shows signs of institutional reduction.
Risk warning: The above analysis is based on publicly available data and market structure, and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, so please assess risks yourself.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $DOGE $ZEC #加密市场 #资金流向I think a large part of the previous downtrend cycle of South Korea's SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung was influenced by the anticipation of Changxin's IPO:
Changxin IPO → Fundraising of tens of billions → Capacity expansion
Acceleration of domestic substitution in China
Increase in DRAM supply
Future price decline
Decline in profitability of Korean manufacturers
Now that Changxin has successfully gone public and its market value has surpassed the 3 trillion mark, personally, I feel this trend might follow the same path as SpaceX: first going up, then hitting a high to shake out the shorts or attract retail investors from outside to chase the high, and then crashing down wildly. A drop is inevitable.
As for SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk,
the anticipation of Changxin's IPO in China has already materialized, so their potential downside expectation is not high, making a rebound inevitable.
Additionally, from a technical perspective, the downtrend in major memory stocks has shown clear signs of weakening. So, making a rebound move now is quite reasonable.
The above is just a personal opinion, only to record my own investment logic, and does not constitute any investment advice.
$SKHYNIX $MU $SNDK 友友们，美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议，这次真的不一样——经济学家和交易员罕见“打架”。 目前联邦基金利率处于3.50%–3.75%区间。路透调查的104位经济学家全部预计7月维持利率不变，CME数据显示维持不变概率63.7%，加息概率36.3%。 “按兵不动”派的理由很充分：6月CPI同比降至3.5%、环比下降0.4%创四年最大跌幅，就业也在走弱——6月非农仅增5.7万人。法国外贸银行、摩根士丹利、野村、高盛等机构均预计全年按兵不动。 但“意外加息”的声音也在变大。布伦特原油突破100美元/桶，特朗普政府对60国加征新关税，美联储主席沃什上任后放弃前瞻指引、对高通胀“零容忍”。文艺复兴宏观首席经济学家Dutta直言：“与其9月被逼入墙角，不如现在行动。” 内部分歧也在加剧——达拉斯联储主席Logan等鹰派官员可能投反对票，而纽约联储Williams等鸽派倾向于等待。 这次会议最大看点不是“加不加” ，而是沃什如何在通胀反弹与数据降温之间做选择。无论结果如何，市场大概率都会剧烈波动——做好两手准备，比猜对方向更重要！ #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Once the cannons roared, gold was in vain, and the crypto market was boiling with blood. Yesterday, two missiles hit a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to skyrocket. Just two days ago, everyone was mocking crude oil for wiping out the war premium, but overnight, the ghost story of geopolitical conflict has returned. I stared at the market, $BTC didn't hesitate, following my risk-averse mood all the way north. This rally was so fierce that it didn't look like a gradual accumulation, but more like some big capital rushing in amid panic over oil prices. Speaking out loud, the mood switched faster than flipping a book; the bears were probably stunned in front of the screen. The fragile ceasefire agreement between the King of Understanding and Iran now seems like just a piece of paper. Every pulse in oil prices is pouring fuel on the costs of the global supply chain. What does this mean? The specter of inflation is far from gone. Those who bet on a certain institution's rate cut in the second half of the year should be starting to feel anxious now. But the crypto market's reaction now is strange: instead of crying with US stocks, it laughs with safe-haven assets. I feel this is a new narrative beginning to sprout. In an era where fiat credit is repeatedly hit by geopolitical risks, $BTC is turning into a chaotic hedging tool. War is unpredictable, inflation is unpredictable, and that ceasefire agreement is even more unpredictable. So don't rush to call for a bullish rebound, and don't blindly chase high prices just because you see a big bullish candle. Stay steady for now and see how well the Asian session is taking hold. If tonight's US stock market opens can absorb this negative geopolitical news, then this wave of sentiment may truly be sealed. Geopolitical #美股全线走高 led the #谷歌特斯拉Q2财报今夜见分晓 #伦理条款 with crypto stocks leading the gainsThe Strait of Hormuz opens more often than my home window 😂. The Strait of Hormuz controls nearly one-third of the world's maritime oil shipments. Heightened tensions will push up oil prices, trigger global double inflation, force Europe and the US to maintain high interest rates, drag down economic growth, and put pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies; $CL As the situation eases, oil prices fall, rate cut expectations rebound, and risk assets are recovering. However, a short-term ceasefire cannot eliminate contradictions, and geopolitical fluctuations will continue to bring volatility and uncertainty to the global economy. Core Event: Middle East conflict cools in a phase, Strait navigation brings a turning point. The US and Iran announced a temporary halt to military strikes. Iran and Oman have made progress in consultations on shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz. All parties plan to establish a navigation management mechanism to ensure smooth passage for commercial ships, and months of geopolitical standoff have entered a brief pause. Previously, concerns over Strait shipping disruptions had driven up crude oil prices, and rising inflation forced the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, suppressing the crypto market for a long time; Now, the fear of war has quickly dissipated, becoming the core fuse for this crypto rebound. Complete Upward Transmission Logic 1. Geopolitical easing → oil prices drop sharply. The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global maritime oil supply. After the lockdown risk was lifted, oil prices plunged, energy-driven inflationary pressures eased significantly, and the market lowered expectations for rising US Treasury yields, causing the negative side of tightening liquidity to marginally fade. 2. Risk appetite is warming up, capital flows back into risky assets. Safe-haven funds are withdrawing from the US dollar and gold, and are flowing back into the stock market and cryptocurrencies; Previously, a large number of short positions were shorted, and concentrated stop-loss closing positions$PIEVERSE Come down the same way you went up?
Yesterday, there were two short positions and operations on this coin.
A one-time profit of 165% yields a gain of 386% at once.
The reason I chose to short it is mainly because it suddenly surged on high volume without positive news, but despite such a large rise, it did not attract more bearish forces.
I judge that this round of rally is most likely driven by genuine buying driven by chasing funds.
Usually, real buying orders in contracts carry significant risks, so funds come quickly and go quickly.
There's a logic here: too many major players will face selling issues, and with such poor liquidity, the downside can't hold on.
Additionally, the main players worry that if bearish forces don't appear and they can't use the short squeeze to sell at high levels, it's easy to trap themselves on top. If dedicated short-selling institutions appear, they could be caught up in no time.
So, after the number of sell orders in the live trading increased significantly, I chose to go short.
After all, only the main players managed to sell that many tokens.
These low-liquidity coins have transactions every second (Bitcoin doesn't necessarily have trading volume every second), and most of it is the main players' own operations, so you can judge whether to short or go long from their buying and selling.
Prices have fallen from their highs, and it's even harder to climb again! Changxin Technology's IPO, I actually won't chase it
I think Changxin's listing is a milestone for China's storage industry, but not necessarily the best buying point in the secondary market.
Today, Changxin Technology officially landed on the STAR Market. As the largest IPO in A-shares this year and the largest IPO in the history of the STAR Market, its stock price surged on the first day of listing, and its market value quickly exceeded hundreds of billions of yuan.
Many people are discussing: "Can we still buy? Will it continue to rise?"
My answer is: I won't buy a single share in the next two months
The reason is simple
The real value of Changxin is not how much it rose today, but whether it has the ability to change the global $DRAM competitive landscape.
For more than twenty years, global storage has been dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Now, Changxin has become the world's fourth largest DRAM manufacturer, which means the global storage industry has seen a truly "new variable" for the first time.
But the problem also arises: the capital market likes to talk about the future, and on the first day of listing, the future is often already reflected in the stock price in advance.
I prefer to wait for the market heat to cool down and then look at several truly important data points:
* Can AI server DRAM demand continue to grow?
* Will Changxin have new breakthroughs in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) in the future?
* Will the four global DRAM manufacturers re-enter price competition?
These will determine its value in the next three to five years.
So I won't get excited because of today's surge, nor will I be bearish because of future adjustments.
What is truly worth investing in is not the "first day of listing," but whether it has the chance to become an irreplaceable part of future AI infrastructure.
For us investors, listing is just the starting point; industry competition is the real main storyline.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 $CL July 27, crude oil prices plunged across the board, fully reflecting the market's previously priced supply and demand fundamental expectations.
On the supply side, the US and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire consensus over the weekend, with both sides beginning negotiations. The market is trading the logic of navigation and repair in the Strait of Hormuz.
Previous conflicts caused a large backlog of crude oil in the Persian Gulf. Once shipping routes are restored, regional crude oil exports will rebound rapidly;
Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues to release idle capacity, with production in the US, Brazil, and Guyana from non-OPEC producers maintaining upward levels. Global crude oil supply is ample increment, and the previously speculated 'Middle East supply cutoff' extreme supply logic has completely failed. Speculative bulls have concentrated to take profits and exited, causing oil prices to pull back sharply.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower 🔥 $HYPE — Hyperliquid gaining momentum
$HYPE is trading around $58.77, up 1.09%, with approximately $6.24M in displayed volume.
The chart is showing healthy bullish structure. If price continues holding above the entry zone, buyers could push toward the key $60–$62 resistance area.
📌 Trade Setup:
📍 Entry: $58.48–$59.07
🎯 TP1: $59.95
🎯 TP2: $61.12
🎯 TP3: $62.30
🛑 SL: $57.60
⚠️ Liquidity remains lower compared to major assets like $BTC and $ETH, which means volatility can increase quickly. Manage position size carefully and respect risk levels.
Watching $HYPE closely. 🔥💎
$HYPE #CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch Is AI creating the future, or is it just spending money wildly? This week, tech giants are about to hand in their papers. Microsoft and Meta will release their earnings reports after the U.S. market closes on July 29, while Amazon will release them after the market closes on July 30. This time, the market's focus may not be "how much money was made," but rather a more realistic question: has the AI capital poured into the past two years started to pay off? In past AI markets, there was a very clear logic: buying GPUs, building data centers, expanding cloud computing capabilities. Whoever invested the most was considered more likely to win. But now, the tide is shifting. Investors are shifting from "believing in AI's future" to "verifying AI now." Simply put: the market used to ask: "Who will be the winner of the AI era?" Now the market asks: "When will AI start making money?" Microsoft's most critical business this time is Azure's cloud business. Microsoft has already invested heavily in AI infrastructure; if Azure's growth continues to accelerate, it means AI is truly entering the enterprise market and starting to generate revenue. But if the financial report shows capital expenditures continue to increase and AI commercialization lags behind, the market may reassess this investment. After all, no matter how sexy the story is, it still needs cash flow to prove it. Meta's focus is on balancing advertising and AI investment. Currently, Meta's largest source of revenue remains advertising. AI is helping it optimize recommendation algorithms and improve advertising efficiency. But on the other hand, Meta is also ramping up$SNOW USDT Ready for the Next Move!
SNOW is holding a key support zone. If buyers defend this level, a breakout could trigger a strong upside rally.
🎯 EP: 269.80–271.20
🛑 SL: 266.50
🎯 TP1: 275.00
🎯 TP2: 280.00
🎯 TP3: 286.00
💡 Pro Tip: Never chase green candles. Wait for confirmation and let the market come to you.
#OilDropsOnCeasefire #FOMCRateWatch #CXMTMemoryIPO Changxin IPO: A Breakthrough Battle from a National Project to a Global Variable! 🔥
The core value of Changxin Technology's IPO may not lie in today's market capitalization figures, but in its fundamental identity leap — pushing China's DRAM industry from a "national project" to a "public market project."
This leap signifies a qualitative change in three dimensions:
Capital Flow: Expansion funds no longer rely solely on external support but possess sustainable self-financing capabilities;
Technology Pressure: The pressure from the public market will be the toughest whetstone, forcing continuous technological iteration;
Commercial Validation: The path is set, and success or failure will be fairly judged by the market.
Samsung and Micron's absolute oligopoly in the Chinese market is being gradually eroded by Changxin. But the true ultimate battlefield is HBM (AI memory). Only by capturing the high ground of AI memory can Changxin truly become a "global variable."
The so-called "global storage competition adding variables" essentially does not mean "a complete upheaval tomorrow," but rather —
China's storage sector has already crossed the milestone from 0 to 1, and next comes the more critical capability verification period from 1 to 10.
The variable is present, fulfillment requires time, but the pace is unstoppable.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #长鑫科技 #中国芯 #DRAM #HBM #科技洞察At the opening this morning, the market suddenly changed dramatically. BTC has pulled back above $65,300 from around $64,000, while ETH has surged over 3%. Behind it is the geopolitical "time bomb" that has temporarily removed the fuse—signals of cooling in the US-Iran military standoff, and global risk assets collectively celebrating.
Taking advantage of this rebound, let's talk about the three most noteworthy topics today.
1. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire signal ignites the market
At the start of the Asia-Pacific session this morning, US stock futures, gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies all surged, while oil prices plunged. The core message is: Iranian sources stated, "As long as the U.S. stops military strikes, Iran will also cease military operations." Trump has paused military strikes against Iran, leaving room for diplomacy.
Of course, Iran is "more skeptical than optimistic" about the U.S. sincerity. But short-term sentiment is already in place. Bitcoin reclaimed the key $65,000 mark, while Ethereum led the gains among mainstream coins.
2. Technical Aspects: 65,000 Becomes a "Bullish Defense Line"
In the past three days, no 4-hour candlestick has closed below $64,200, and bulls have successfully turned this area into strong support. Currently, BTC is oscillating around 65,300, with the first resistance above in the 65,900-66,900 range. If it can break through with increased volume, the next target could be the previous high of 66,900 or even higher.
ETH strengthened in tandem, rebounding from the low of 1836 to 1953, approaching the previous high resistance level. The trend structure is similar to BTC.
However, a reminder: after consecutive strong bullish candles, there is a technical need for a pullback, and the risk of chasing the highs is relatively high. Confirmation of the retest is the more stable entry point. Key support is at 64,700-64,200; as long as this area is not broken, the rebound structure will persist.
3. Two security incidents show that old problems persist
· WEMIX contract ownership compromised: Attacker issued about 5.22 million WEMIX, exchanged for about 724,000 USDC.e and transferred it across chains, causing WEMIX tokens to drop over 16% in 24 hours. An application is currently underway to freeze funds flowing to exchanges.
· Garden Finance Hit by HTLC Vulnerability: Cross-chain Bridge Protocol Exploited to Steal About $450,000 USDT on Four Chains, The App Has Been Urgently Shut Down.
When the market rises, many people tend to let their guard down. But security incidents have never ceased—especially protocols related to cross-chain bridges, which have always been prime targets for attackers.
Liquidation data & strategies
In the past 24 hours, total margin liquidations across the network amounted to $215 million. Interestingly, short positions were liquidated at 160 million yuan, and long positions were only 54.82 million. This means this rebound mainly targets those who chase short positions.
The current fear index is 26, still in the "fear" range. Sentiment hasn't heated up yet, and there's room for a rebound, but the interest rate meeting (July 29) is still ahead.
My judgment
The short-term rebound is driven by geopolitical sentiment, and its sustainability depends on two conditions:
· Can the U.S. and Iran maintain a ceasefire status?
· Can BTC hold above 65,000 and break through resistance at 65,900?
In terms of trading, if the 64,700-64,200 level is not broken, you can engage in long-term trading. If the initial touch near 66,900 is possible, a short-term pullback can be triggered. However, before the rate meeting, it is not recommended to heavily invest heavily in betting on direction. In the short term, look at a rebound; in the medium term, watch for interest rate discussions; in the long term, look at regulation.
💡 Interactive topic: Did you chase this rebound too much, or did you miss out? Would you dare to take the 65,000 rebound? See you in the comments
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 一句话结论：
> ADA（Cardano）是真正做区块链的项目，不是空气币；但它已经错过了最快的发展窗口。它大概率能活10年以上，但成为行业第一梯队的概率已经明显下降。
下面直接说重点。
---
ADA到底是什么？
ADA是Cardano公链的原生代币。
Cardano想做的事情和ETH一样：
发代币
做DeFi
做NFT
做稳定币
做支付
跑智能合约
它本质上就是另一条智能合约公链。
---
ADA真正的实际用途
只有四个是真实的。
① 支付Gas（必须）
这是ADA最大的价值来源。
每一笔交易：
都必须消耗ADA。
和ETH一样。
没有ADA。
网络不能运行。
这是刚需。
---
② Staking（质押）
Cardano最大的特色就是：
很多ADA长期锁仓。
质押的人：
帮助维护网络。
获得收益。
所以：
ADA天然有长期持有需求。
---
③ DeFi
ADA可以：
借贷
DEX交易
流动性挖矿
稳定币
但是：
规模远远落后：
ETH
SOL
BNB Chain
Base
甚至不少新链。
---
④ 转账
ADA转账：
费用便宜。
速度不错。
所以很多人拿它跨钱包。
但是：
这不是护城河。
很多公链都能做到。
---
ADA有没有必须存在的应用场景？
有，但不强。
如果Cardano存在：
ADA一定必须存在。
因为：
Gas只能ADA支付。
这一点没有问题。
但是：
问题来了。
整个Cardano生态：
目前用户数量并不算多。
开发者增长速度也一般。
很多热门应用：
优先开发ETH。
然后SOL。
再Base。
最后才考虑ADA。
这就是现实。
---
ADA真正的问题
一句话：
技术不错，生态一般。
Cardano最大的特点：
非常重视学术。
论文。
同行评审。
正式验证。
安全性高。
但是：
开发速度慢。
行业已经跑了很多年。
很多创新：
别人已经上线。
Cardano还在研究。
结果就是：
技术赢了。
市场输了。
---
ADA最大的风险
不是安全。
不是性能。
而是：
没人来。
一条公链最重要的：
不是TPS。
不是论文。
而是：
有没有开发者。
有没有用户。
有没有资金。
有没有应用。
这一点：
Cardano目前明显弱于：
ETH
SOL
甚至SUI增长速度都更快。
---
五年（2031年前后）
如果Cardano保持现在的位置：
我认为：
2~5美元。
如果整个加密市场进入超级牛市：
可能：
6~8美元。
超过10美元：
不是没有可能。
但我认为概率不高。
---
十年（2036年前后）
如果：
Cardano仍保持前十公链。
我认为：
3~8美元。
如果生态重新崛起：
可能：
10美元以上。
但这是乐观情景，不是我认为最可能发生的情况。
---
我会不会长期持有ADA？
会。
但：
不会重仓。
原因很简单。
它不会轻易死亡。
但是：
成长速度已经明显放缓。
---
如果让我今天重新配置资金
我会这样排序：
ETH ＞ SOL ＞ BTC ＞ SUI ＞ ADA
为什么？
ETH：
生态第一。
SOL：
用户增长最快之一。
BTC：
数字黄金。
SUI：
成长空间更大。
ADA：
技术优秀，但生态扩张速度落后。
---
最后一针见血
ADA不是骗局，也不是垃圾项目。
但它已经从“未来之星”，变成了“成熟但增长较慢的老牌公链”。
如果你已经持有ADA，可以把它作为长期组合中的一部分；如果今天让我在ETH、SOL、SUI和ADA之间新增投资，我会优先选择ETH、SOL和SUI，ADA排在它们之后。Core catalyst for the rise: easing of US-Iran tensions
Early this morning, US stock futures, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies all surged, while international oil prices plunged sharply. The direct catalyst was a cooling signal in the Middle East situation:
· US suspends military strikes: On the 24th, Trump ordered the US military not to strike Iran that day, breaking the previous streak of 13 consecutive days of airstrikes
· Iran sends reciprocal signal: Iranian sources stated that as long as the US stops military strikes, Iran will also cease military actions
· Diplomatic channels reopen: US-Iran information exchange continues, and the US permanent representative to the UN said military strikes have been suspended to allow space for diplomatic negotiations
Oil prices fell sharply in response—WTI crude dropped over 5% to $84.26/barrel, Brent crude fell over 5% to $86.67/barrel. Oil price decline → inflation expectations cool → rate hike expectations ease → risk assets rebound, forming a complete positive transmission chain.
However, it should be noted: Iran remains "skeptical" of US sincerity, believing the ceasefire is more of a tactical consideration. The Strait of Hormuz is still in a "closed state," and the risk of situation fluctuations remains. $BTC $ETH $NOT #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ 🚨 HYPERLIQUID JUST TESTED SOMETHING THAT COULD CHANGE WHO GETS TO TRADE. 👀
A new feature called “Stars” has appeared on the Hyperliquid testnet — and it looks like it could give HIP-3 DEX deployers much tighter control over who can trade.
From what I can tell, Stars allow deployers to create a HIP-3 DEX with an address allowlist for trading.
The current testnet limit appears to be 10,000 approved addresses.
But here's the interesting part:
Non-approved addresses can still fund accounts and submit reduce-only orders — they just can't open new positions.
The feature is already being tested through ktob ("BTC Star DEX").
The transactions show the flow pretty clearly:
→ Register the DEX
→ Activate the Star
→ Approve a trader address
→ Unhalt the market
→ Unapproved address tries to trade and fails
→ Approved address places an order successfully
So this isn't just sitting in the codebase.
It's actually being tested on-chain.
There are plenty of possible use cases here, but I'm going to hold off on speculation for now.
For now, the key takeaway is simple:
Hyperliquid appears to be experimenting with permissioned access layers for HIP-3 markets.
And if Stars make it to mainnet, it'll be interesting to see how deployers use them.
Definitely something worth watching. 👀
NFA. DYOR.
#DailyOrbit This is going to be a very interesting week for $BTC.
Over the past 12 months, eight of the last nine FOMC meetings have been followed by a relatively large sell-off.
Across those eight flushes, $BTC BTC declined roughly 10% on average over the following week.
During last month’s meeting, price was trading in almost exactly the same region as it is today.
$BTC traded around $66K, then dropped roughly 12% to $58K, setting new cycle lows.
The one exception was the previous meeting in May, when $BTC produced the opposite reaction and rallied roughly 5%.
So another bearish reaction is not necessarily guaranteed. We have already seen this pattern fail once during the current bear market.
But 8 out of 9 is still not a statistic I am interested in betting against.
If the same reaction plays out again, we’re likely to see a key test of the range lows.
I’m personally watching whether $61K can hold as support.
That level is the gatekeeper between another pullback inside the current range and a potential flush to new lows.
$BTC 多资产定投回测
# Configuration：
- Frequency: Weekly (Monday)
- Investment: $25 per asset
- Assets: GLD · QQQ · VOO · BTC
- Period: 2020-01-01 → 2026-07-23
# Result：
| Code | Invested | Value | Profit | ROI | Units |
|-------|-------------|------------|-----------|-------|---------|
| GLD | 8575.00 | 15848.29 | 7273.29 | 0.85 | 42.66 |
| QQQ | 8575.00 | 16645.73 | 8070.73 | 0.94 | 24.06 |
| VOO | 8575.00 | 14834.05 | 6259.05 | 0.73 | 21.86 |
| BTC | 8575.00 | 19847.44 | 11272.44 | 1.31 | 0.30 |
| 累计投入 | $34,300.00 |
| 资产价值 | $67,175.51 |
| 累计收益 | $32,875.51 |
| 总收益率 | 95.85% | Impact of Changxin Technology's IPO on the Chip Sector (Short-term + Mid-to-Long Term, Structural Differentiation Logic)
Overall Conclusion: It will not drive a broad rally across the entire chip sector. The chip sector will experience a clear structural market, with upstream equipment and materials benefiting first, the memory track undergoing valuation reshaping, and pure thematic small-cap stocks facing short-term pressure.
I. Short-term Market Impact (1–4 weeks post-IPO)
1. Capital siphoning effect, internal sector diversion
Changxin is the largest IPO in the history of the STAR Market, attracting a large amount of short-term capital. Under a zero-sum game, funds will flow out from semiconductor small-cap concept stocks without actual supply orders. High-valuation thematic stocks in the chip sector will likely face short-term volatility and pressure; only upstream suppliers directly providing to Changxin will see increased capital attention.
2. Positive expectations realized, memory sector differentiates early
Before the IPO, the market had already speculated on the memory price increase logic. After the new stock lands, some funds will take profits, and small and medium memory design companies will face valuation cost-performance pressure from the leading Changxin.
3. Overall impact is controllable and will not cause a systemic decline in the chip sector; capital will mostly be redistributed within the sector.
II. Mid-to-Long Term Core Benefits, Layered Gains in the Chip Industry Chain
First Tier: Highest certainty, semiconductor equipment and semiconductor materials (earliest to realize performance)
Changxin raised over ¥57.9 billion, with a large portion allocated to wafer fab expansion and DRAM production line upgrades. Upstream suppliers of etching, thin film, cleaning equipment, silicon wafers, electronic specialty gases, polishing liquids, etc., will secure large long-term orders. The proportion of domestic equipment procurement continues to rise, and equipment manufacturers’ performance will directly materialize, making this the biggest beneficiary of this IPO round.
Second Tier: Memory chip track
Changxin completes the core puzzle of the A-share DRAM manufacturing leader, forming a complete closed loop in the A-share memory industry chain from upstream equipment and manufacturing to downstream memory modules. The global memory cycle upswing plus AI computing power driving explosive memory demand, combined with Changxin’s continuous capacity ramp-up and global market share increase, will push the entire memory sector’s valuation midpoint higher. Yangtze Memory, domestic memory design companies will benefit simultaneously.
Third Tier: Chip packaging & testing, design, power semiconductors
The transmission effect is relatively weak; only packaging & testing and IP design companies deeply tied to the memory industry chain will benefit indirectly. Logic chips, automotive-grade chips, and other non-memory tracks will basically not be directly driven.
III. Profound Impact on Industry Landscape and Valuation
1. Completely changes the investment logic of A-share semiconductors: Previously, semiconductor rallies mostly relied on domestic substitution thematic speculation. After Changxin’s IPO, the memory sector’s market shifts from concept speculation to order and performance-driven, with industrial logic becoming verifiable.
2. Establishes a valuation benchmark for memory chips. As the world’s fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, Changxin will become the pricing anchor for the A-share memory sector, standardizing the overall sector valuation system.
3. Accelerates domestic memory chip substitution progress. Changxin’s capacity expansion will drive the entire supply chain’s domestic production rate higher, significantly speeding up the domestic chip industry’s break from overseas memory giants’ monopoly.
IV. Risk Warning
Memory chips belong to a strongly cyclical industry. Future global DRAM price trends and AI computing power demand changes will directly determine Changxin’s profitability and the sustainability of the chip sector’s market.
Information is for industry logic analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ Oil prices have crashed, BTC returns to 65k: Thursday's FOMC might just be a "read but no reply"
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision early Thursday morning. Everyone is guessing—will they raise rates? Hawkish or dovish?
But you might not have noticed: the market has already "voted" before the meeting even started.
Let's start with oil prices.
Last week, Brent crude briefly surged past $100/barrel. The market panicked—"Second inflation wave is coming! The Fed will hike rates to death!"
What happened? Iran and the US paused attacks over the weekend, raising ceasefire expectations. Oil prices opened Monday with a 5% crash; Brent dropped to around $92, WTI fell below $85.
The biggest inflation bomb defused itself before the FOMC meeting.
Now about employment.
Last week's initial jobless claims came in at 187,000.
What does that mean? The lowest record since 1969.
Economists predicted a median of 210,000. The actual number was 23,000 lower than expected.
In plain language: companies are not laying off. The economy is not in recession. The Fed doesn't need to cut rates early to save the market.
Now consider this combination:
Oil prices fall → Inflation expectations cool → Pressure on US Treasury yields to fall eases
Strong employment → Economy "no landing" → Fed doesn't need emergency easing
The market's biggest fear has never been "no rate cut," but "forced rate hikes."
Now oil prices have crashed, the inflation bomb defused itself—how urgent is rate hiking now?
Where is Bitcoin now?
Around $65,000.
The Fear & Greed Index has risen from the month's low to about 39. Although still in the "fear" zone, it's relatively high for the month.
The options market is more direct—large call options bet on BTC surging to $72,000 after the FOMC.
Smart money is already pricing in the "oil price drop" factor.
So is Thursday's FOMC important?
Yes. But what's important is not "whether to hike rates"—all 76 economists expect rates to remain unchanged.
What's important is the "expectation gap."
CME data shows the market sees a 36.3% chance of a July hike, 55.2% chance in September. But Renaissance Macro's chief economist Dutta bluntly said—"Why not hike now?"
If Waller's tone is hawkish, saying "inflation risks remain on the upside"—the market will reprice.
If Waller admits inflation is slowing and oil prices are falling—then $65,000 is the new floor.
To be honest:
Most people focus on the FOMC day's volatility.
But the real game is "before the meeting."
Oil prices have already fallen, employment data is out, BTC is back to 65k.
Don't chase after the FOMC announcement.
The meeting day is when good news is realized or bad news is fully priced in.
True alpha is when others are still guessing, and you have already seen it. $BTC $CL $ETH $PUMP thesis + trade setup from stream last week
$1M a day with worst onchain conditions is notable, one of the few stories in crypto where the issue is actually the narrative & sentiment instead of the actual fundamentals of the business
if $SOL onchain picks back up this hits all time highs relatively easily, $HYPE currently trades at a 15x higher valuation & they have the same two year revenue numbersTo get straight to the point:
> UNI is not a junk coin, but it's not a coin that will definitely surge in the future. It is a token with real practical use, but its value ceiling is lower than ETH and SOL, and not as high as some high-growth new public blockchains.
Now, let me get straight to the point.
---
What exactly is UNI?
UNI is Uniswap's governance token.
Uniswap is not a coin, but the world's largest decentralized exchange (DEX).
In reality, it is the "unmanned stock exchange" of the crypto world.
No boss.
No employees are placing orders for you.
There is no central server.
Everything is automatically handled by smart contracts.
---
UNI's real practical use
Only three.
First: Governance (this is the only core official use)
UNI can vote.
For example:
How to change the handling fee
New features launched
How to spend treasury funds
Protocol upgrades
To put it simply:
UNI stands for shareholder voting rights.
But be careful.
It is not company shares.
No legal significance.
---
Second: Future fee dividends (possibly)
Currently:
Uniswap's daily trading volume reaches billions of dollars.
Fee income is huge.
However:
The vast majority of fees go to LPs (liquidity providers).
UNI holders currently:
No direct dividends.
In the future, if the community governs through the following:
You can allocate part of the fee to UNI.
Then UNI's value will be revalued.
This is the biggest potential positive factor.
However:
To this day, this has not truly been fully realized.
---
Third: DeFi identity
Many DeFi protocols:
UNI will be treated as a governance asset.
For example:
Loans
Mortgage
DAO governance
Fund management
So:
UNI has always had demand in the DeFi world.
---
Are there any must-have application scenarios for UNI?
Yes.
And it truly exists.
For example:
You want to buy a newly issued coin.
Coinbase does not.
Binance does not.
OKX does not.
What should be done?
Many times:
You can only go to Uniswap.
So:
Uniswap is one of the most important liquidity gateways in the entire Ethereum ecosystem.
As long as the ETH ecosystem exists.
Uniswap almost certainly exists.
---
UNI's real problem
This is straight to the point.
Uniswap has been very successful.
But UNI may not necessarily succeed.
This is where many newcomers get it wrong.
Why?
Because:
Many people trade on Uniswap every day.
But you don't need to buy the UNI at all.
This is UNI's biggest weakness.
For example:
ETH
You want gas.
You must buy ETH.
SOL
SOL must pay for Gas.
SUI
SUI must pay for gas.
However:
Uniswap Trading:
You can pay gas directly with ETH.
No UNI is needed at all.
So:
UNI is not a rigid need.
---
Five years (around 2031)
My judgment:
If DeFi continues to develop.
Uniswap remains one of the world's top three DEXs.
UNI has the opportunity to:
20~40 USD.
If fees truly start to be returned to UNI holders,
Possible:
$40~80.
If DeFi enters a super bull market.
In extreme cases:
Earning over $100 is not entirely impossible.
But I think the probability is low.
---
Ten years (around 2036)
I believe:
UNI will not disappear.
Because:
Uniswap has almost become DeFi infrastructure.
However:
UNI's gains may not outperform ETH.
My judgment:
Normal Situation:
30~80 USD.
Optimism:
80~150 USD.
Extreme Bull Market:
Possibly even higher.
But I wouldn't take it as a high-probability expectation.
---
Will I hold UNI long-term?
Yes.
However:
No heavy positions.
If you invest $1 million.
I might configure it like this:
ETH：35%
BTC：30%
SOL：15%
SUI：10%
UNI：5%
Cash: 5%
Because:
UNI belongs to:
A sure-win ecosystem doesn't necessarily guarantee a guaranteed price win.
---
The final punch
If you can only choose one of the following four for long-term holding:
ETH ＞ SOL ＞ SUI ＞ UNI
The reason is very simple:
ETH: The entire ecosystem can't do without it.
SOL: The entire network can't do without it.
SUI: If the ecosystem succeeds, token demand will grow in tandem.
UNI: Uniswap can't do without ETH, but many users can keep using Uniswap without holding a single UNI.
So my conclusion is: UNI is a real, valuable, and vibrant project, but it is not the strongest value-capturing token in the crypto world. If your goal is to hold until 2030, it's worth holding a certain position, but it's not recommended to use it as a core heavy asset.I don't believe onchain governance is dead.
I believe it's about to be reborn.
The first generation of DAO governance failed because the promise was incomplete. Protocols said, "Anyone can participate." In reality, meaningful participation required deep technical knowledge, the ability to read smart contracts, understand protocol mechanics, and often write code.
That barrier excluded the vast majority of token holders.
AI changes that.
Modern LLMs can explain governance proposals, summarize protocol risks, compare alternatives, and even help draft code or simulations. The technical barrier that once kept most users on the sidelines is rapidly disappearing.
Imagine every token holder having an AI governance assistant that can:
• Explain every proposal in plain language.
• Highlight trade-offs and risks.
• Answer protocol-specific questions.
• Help draft and review governance proposals.
If that becomes standard, governance participation could increase dramatically, and decisions would reflect a much broader community rather than a small group of specialists.
Recent governance controversies across major DAOs show how difficult representative governance can be. AI won't eliminate disagreements or guarantee better outcomes, but it has the potential to make participation far more accessible.
People say governance tokens are dead.
I think AI is about to give them a second life.
Long live AI governance.
#Crypto #DAO #DeFi #AI #GovernanceAfter market funds have been speculating on AI, Meme, and public chain themes, they have begun to explore the previously overlooked underlying infrastructure track. The distributed storage sector, which had been dormant for years, is experiencing unusual activity. FIL has rebounded from the bottom with increased volume. Many people wonder whether the long-weak storage sector can truly emerge from its difficulties this time. Let's break it down and talk. $FIL Filecoin, a well-established infrastructure public chain in the crypto world, with a very clear track positioning: decentralized distributed storage. Traditional cloud storage relies on centralized service providers, while Filecoin integrates global idle storage to provide storage services for various types of data. With the rapid development of AI, demand for large model training, massive datasets, and historical cold data preservation has surged, and the sector is beginning to gain new narrative support. Projects are targeting the new track of AI dataset storage to seek breakthroughs. However, during the long bear market, FIL was long constrained by miner output selling pressure, with prices continuously falling and marginalized by the market for a long time, making it a typical niche stock. Current market situation: After round after round of declines, FIL has been oscillating and grinding at the bottom for a long time, fully absorbing bearish forces. As the rotation of major popular sectors comes to an end, some funds have started to allocate to low-priced, less popular sectors. Valuations in the infrastructure sector have generally reached historic lows, and the anticipated gap caused by capital competition over AI data storage has driven FIL to experience a rebound with increased volume. The core logic behind this rebound: The entire AI industry is expanding rapidly, and one of the biggest supporting needs is massive data storage. Whether it's training materials or model backups,#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. For the Fed's "dinner" early Thursday morning, I am focusing on two points:
First is the baseline scenario — maintaining 3.50%–3.75% unchanged, with all 76 economists betting on no change, but the futures market's probability of a rate hike surged from 13% to 36% in one week. This "experts unanimously one way, market betting the opposite" gap itself is a source of volatility.
Second, since Waller took office, he cut forward guidance; the less said, the more surprises are likely. I lean towards no change but a hawkish statement, with at least two dissenting votes against a rate hike.
In terms of operations, don't bet on a one-sided move early Thursday morning. Treat gold, silver, Nasdaq, and U.S. Treasuries as "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
The real mid-term positions will be adjusted after Waller's press conference sets the tone. Better to be half a step slow than to suffer a silent loss.
$BTC From a modestly well-off family with modest debt, to a debt of 300,000 yuan in online loans, relatives with 230,000 yuan, losing 3 million yuan both inside and out. The last time, I held out in the group for three days, lost another 100,000 yuan, and was immediately liquidated. That was Du Xiaoman's money. The moment I saw the closing message, I didn't cry. I just feel—these four years felt like a long nightmare, and now I've finally woken up, only to find reality is worse than the nightmare. With 530,000 yuan in debt, the monthly interest alone is suffocating. The relatives didn't dare answer the calls, and Du Xiaoman kept sending reminder messages one after another. Do I regret it? Regret. But it's not regret for trading cryptocurrencies, it's regret that even after losing so much, they still think they can break even. If you're currently holding onto orders, borrowing online loans to cover margin, or fantasizing that "a little more price increase will break even"—bro, stop. What you can afford to lose is money; what you can't afford is the rest of your life. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon hold the AI narrative? $BTC $ETH $SOL $ETH ETH's relative move today warrants a closer look. At roughly three times BTC's 24-hour gain, with the Iran strike pause pulling risk appetite back into markets, the outperformance looks positioning-driven rather than narrative-driven. Rotation into ETH ahead of broader alt momentum is a known pattern; whether this is that setup or just a one-session catch-up is still unclear.
The macro backdrop adds friction. Jobless claims dropping gives the Fed less reason to move quickly on cuts, keeping real rates elevated and limiting the liquidity tailwind crypto needs to sustain a rally. Google and Tesla earnings this week matter more than most traders expect; a growth miss there could reprice the whole risk-on move. I'd want more confirmation before treating this bounce as structural.
Just my read, not advice.$ETH Guessed it was about to hit the top, placed an order in April 1962 but withdrew, placed halfway up the mountain at 1946, always afraid I wouldn't get in, my anxious heart finally gave up
Don't rush when making orders
The current trend is trending upward, with a high probability of falling back to around 1800
A small position is not a big problem; to break through 2000, strong positive news is needed. #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables
$BTC BTC's lack of major moves proves that funds are still on the sidelines,
Ethereum's recent rally is essentially a way to wash up leverage
Hold the Air Force Gate🚨 AI is becoming the next battleground—and the biggest names are moving fast.
Reports say executives from Samsung, Hyundai, Naver, and NVIDIA met to explore deeper AI partnerships and potential investments.
If these collaborations move forward, they could accelerate innovation across:
🤖 AI infrastructure
🚗 Autonomous driving
💾 Advanced memory and chip design
☁️ Enterprise AI ecosystems
The biggest takeaway isn't just one company—it's the growing race to build the AI stack, from semiconductors to software and autonomous vehicles.
The companies that control AI infrastructure today could define the next decade of technology.
AI isn't slowing down. It's scaling up.
#AI #NVIDIA #Samsung #Hyundai #Naver #Semiconductors #AutonomousDriving #Technology #InvestingThe intraday high was $0.9995, the intraday low was $0.6394, with a 24-hour maximum drop of 35.2% and a current price of $0.7106; it directly broke below the two key psychological support levels of $0.8 and $0.7, becoming the top declining coin in the AI infrastructure sector during the day. 2. On-chain Tokens: On July 26, whales with increased holdings and early institutional investors transferred in bulk to exchanges for cash, with the scale of tokens transferred on-chain increasing ninefold month-on-month in a single day; Retail investors chasing high chips are deeply trapped across the board, with no long-term institutional funds entering to support the bottom. 3. Contract funds: Massive accumulation of long positions in the $0.8-$1 range accumulated to chase the rally. After the price fell below the 0.8 mark, consecutive long orders stopped and liquidated positions, with total long liquidations exceeding $16.4 million. The funding rate quickly shifted from positive to sharply negative, with market bearish sentiment completely dominating. 1. Short-term KOL speculation ends, pure sentiment rallies without fundamental support (core is directly bearish). The July 26 rally relied entirely on overseas crypto bloggers announcing orders to attract retail investors chasing the rally, with no technical updates or partnerships that day. After the pure traffic hype faded, retail investors' FOMO quickly dissipated, incremental funds instantly stopped flowing, and without buying support, the price plunged directly. 2. High-level whales concentrate cashing out, small circulating shares increase selling pressure Circulating supply is only 175 million tokens, with large holders holding over 60% of circulating shares, leaving huge potential for unrealized gains after a rally. On July 27, major players sold large amounts in batches, but a small number of sell orders broke through key support, leaving the market with insufficient retail investors to take over, resulting in a cliff-like decline#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds a #韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单
Monday, forced start of filming, have a good workday for everyone.
This Korean duo seems a bit off. Let's analyze it carefully:
Strip away the facade of dividends.
All of these are deadly risks.
Currently, the entire internet is hyping that the two Korean storage giants have secured a trillion-yuan AI cooperation deal with the US, and there is unanimous optimism about the storage market.
But my view is completely the opposite. The story of the storage market is basically over, and the hidden danger of a new round of economic collapse in South Korea has already been planted. This is actually the Plaza Accord of the new era, and South Korea is about to repeat the mistakes of Japan in the 1990s.
On July 25, SAMSUNG, SK Hynix, and a group of American tech giants reached a strategic chip cooperation framework, with a total scale reaching 1,375 trillion Korean won, equivalent to $940 billion and over 6.3 trillion RMB. Over the weekend, major financial bloggers and retail investors all treated this as a huge positive news, frantically bullish on HBM and the storage sector.
I think all of this is risk!
First, the industry's supply-demand turning point was forcibly moved forward, shortening the super boom cycle by one year. According to the original capacity plan, by the end of 2027, Korean companies will have a monthly HBM capacity of 130,000 wafers. The industry's supply shortage could have been maintained steadily until the end of 2028, which is the core support for this storage supermarket. After this cooperation and expansion, by the end of 2027, HBM's monthly capacity will directly rise to 190,000 units, significantly accelerating the supply-demand balance turning point. The capital market has always reacted early; main funds will cash out and exit a year or even a year and a half ahead, and the high prosperity premium and valuation space stored are about to come to an end.
Even more critical, this massive cooperation is merely a framework of supply intent, not a rigid purchase contract.
But Samsung and SK Hynix have already been forced to start large-scale capacity expansions, and now they are investing heavily to build new factories, purchase equipment, and expand capacity. All these heavy asset investments are irreversible.
In the future, if major American companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon experience slowed profitability in AI commercialization and their revenue growth couldn't keep pace with the pace of ongoing investment, they could scale back or even abandon procurement plans at any time. At that point, the massive new HBM capacity added by South Korea's two giants will instantly overflow, product prices will plummet, and all previous massive investments will be wasted.
Next comes the chain crash scenario: massive losses for companies, plummeting exports, currency depreciation, and national asset prices falling—perfectly replicating the entire process of Japan's bubble bursting.
It appears that South Korea has benefited from the short-term benefits of the AI industry, but in reality, it has completely relinquished its leadership and future development path in the high-end chip sector.
A cooperation agreement that looks like a trillion-won order actually locks the ceiling of South Korea's high-end industries, firmly handing the lifeblood of the entire country's economy into the hands of American capital—essentially a contract of sale!
Back to the market, does it feel familiar these past couple of days?
First, they applied extreme pressure, the US bombed Iraq for 13 consecutive days, then suddenly the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire
5+2, Monday to Friday, bombardment; on Sunday, as the risk of geopolitical conflict was released, US crude oil and Brent crude responded to $BTC and risk-appetite assets like $ETH rising—that's the logic.
Meme coin $SHIB, $DOGE didn't follow the script. Isn't the tail end the meme coin celebration? He wondered what had triggered 🤔 him yesterday.
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative?
Google just crashed—will Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon still dare to keep burning?
In the past, tech giants released financial reports to see who invested more in AI—investing more meant foresight, and stock prices rose for you;
Now tech giants are releasing financial reports, competing over who makes more AI profits. Investing more or making little profit is just burning money, and the stock price drops for you.
Last week, Google just proved with personal experience: rising revenue doesn't help, cloud business orders don't matter, as long as capital expenditure exceeds expectations and free cash flow turns negative, the market votes with its feet, dropping 300 billion yuan in a single day.
This week, it's Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—each with its own challenges:
- Microsoft: Previously, you invested in efficiency ceilings; will you also aggressively increase Capex this time?
- Meta: Is the money earned from advertising enough to burn the computing power you make? Don't spend more than you earn;
- Amazon: Can AWS's growth rate be beaten? Don't just say AI demand is strong; if you can't show growth in performance, you're just playing tricks.
To put it bluntly, AI narratives have passed the stage of "selling promises and rising in price"; now it's time for "whether it's a mule or a horse to go out and take a walk."
Those that deliver on their performance will continue to be tech leaders; If you can't deliver on your promises, you can only rely on stories to support valuations; if the story doesn't work, valuations have to be cut down.
Just wait and see—after this week, who's swimming naked in the AI track will be clear.🚨 ETH IS OUTPACING BTC — BUT IS THIS THE START OF SOMETHING BIGGER?
ETH’s move today deserves a closer look.
It’s gaining roughly 3× what BTC has gained over the past 24 hours, as the pause in Iran tensions brings some risk appetite back into the market.
That kind of relative strength could be important. ETH often starts attracting capital before broader altcoin momentum kicks in. But I’m not ready to call it a trend yet — this could simply be ETH catching up after lagging.
The macro picture is still complicated.
Falling jobless claims give the Fed less reason to rush into rate cuts, keeping real yields elevated and limiting the liquidity tailwind crypto needs for a sustained rally.
And this week’s Google and Tesla earnings could matter more than traders realize. Any major growth disappointment could quickly hit the broader risk-on trade.
For now, I’m watching ETH closely — but I want more confirmation before calling this bounce structural.
Just my read, not financial advice.
#OKXOrbit
#DailyOrbit #美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
Expectations for a U.S. ban on open-source AI models have sharply declined, with market odds dropping from over 60% to around 19%. The market is betting on whether regulation will shift to support open source to address China's AI breakthrough.
Funds focus on lobbying between OpenAI and Anthropic versus bipartisan AI emergency shutdown bills, with closed-source vendor API models facing challenges. It may be misjudged as a complete lifting and overlook another regulatory line for safety and control.
In terms of judgment, a decline in open source expectations is beneficial for AI technology diffusion and tech risk assets, but validation depends on bill progress and company statements. If restrictions are tightened, volatility will increase; conversely, the main innovation theme will continue.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower
Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire drove international oil prices to plunge at the open, with Brent dropping about 6% to around $91, risk assets rebounding in sync, and Bitcoin climbing back above $65,000. The market is betting on whether the cooling of geopolitical conflicts can translate into a more stable macro environment.
Funds are actually focused on whether a written agreement can be reached before the end of August, and the drop in oil prices will directly ease previous concerns about energy inflation. The ceasefire may be overestimated and the potential for recurrence may be underestimated.
In terms of judgment, the drop in oil prices is positive for risk appetite and a rebound in assets like BTC, but the validation depends on this week's macro data and ceasefire progress. If the agreement is implemented, the trend will continue; conversely, the oil price rebound will once again suppress sentiment.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.#财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon maintain the AI narrative?
The earnings reports of Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will directly test whether AI capital expenditures can translate into commercial returns. Alphabet was previously sold off due to increased spending, and Tesla experienced a sharp weekly drop. The market is now betting on whether these three can maintain the narrative and avoid similar selling pressure.
Funds are focusing on the growth rate of cloud business revenue and the progress of AI productization. Excessive spending without corresponding returns will amplify anxiety. This may be misinterpreted as overinvestment, underestimating the long-term infrastructure demand.
In terms of judgment, if the earnings season shows a bias toward risk assets with positive guidance, BTC could rebound relying on the AI theme; the verification conditions are the capital expenditure data and cloud revenue growth released after hours. If both exceed expectations, sentiment will continue; otherwise, differentiation will intensify.
The above is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are at your own risk. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
Oil prices have sharply retreated due to expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire, easing inflationary pressures combined with initial jobless claims below expectations, and risk appetite is warming up. Bitcoin has reclaimed levels above $65,000. The Federal Reserve's rate decision this week will be a key pricing event, with the market betting on whether policy will remain patient amid macro improvements.
Capital is actually focusing on whether the capital expenditure guidance from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon can support the AI narrative, as well as the impact of FTX creditor compensation on market liquidity. There is a risk of misjudging the ceasefire as a permanent positive while ignoring repeated geopolitical variables.
In terms of judgment, risk assets are biased to the upside before and after this rate decision, but the validation condition lies in the cloud giants' earnings reports on Wednesday and Thursday. If capital expenditures exceed expectations and AI commercialization progresses clearly, BTC and others will continue to rise; conversely, if guidance is conservative, a pullback is needed.
The above is only a personal opinion shared and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are at your own risk. Big money is quietly entering the market—have you noticed?
My judgment: this is not a retail frenzy, but a token swap completed by institutions at the high level of the "fear index."
Reason 1: ETF capital inflows resonate with macro signals. In July, the Fed's dovish stance and cooling employment data led BTC to rebound nearly 10% in a single week, driven by sustained net ETF inflows rather than retail FOMO.
Verifiable data: In July, BTC ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of over $500 million, and on-chain data shows that the frequency of large transfers (>1,000 BTC) rose 35% month-on-month, indicating institutions are accumulating shares at low levels.
My trading strategy: Don't chase highs, wait for pullbacks to 62,000 to 63,000 yuan, build positions in batches, keep positions within 15% of total funds to avoid being washed out by short-term fluctuations.
Reason two: Traditional financial giants enter the market, changing the market structure. Institutions like Vanguard and BlackRock, which once excluded crypto assets, are now not only launching ETFs but also testing blockchain payments, indicating that "compliance" is now a done deal.
Verifiable data: As of the end of July, 17 major banks worldwide have participated in blockchain payment testing, with 3 of them announcing the inclusion of BTC on their balance sheets—a historic turning point.
My trading strategy: hold BTC long-term as a "digital gold" allocation, but avoid leveraging in the short term, only using spot + dollar-cost averaging strategies to reduce timing pressure.
Don't let clickbait with 'big money entering the market' stirring up the narrative; the real opportunity lies in the details of 'how institutions are positioned,' not in the clamor of 'who made how much.'Compression end before the super week: BTC stuck between 63k–66.9k, ETH momentum leading the rally, storage chain rebounded in two days. On Sunday, the market was thin, and the market was almost flat — geopolitical downgrades benefited risk assets, but crypto had no volume and compressed to the end, all waiting for this week's FOMC + core PCE super week. Don't guess the direction at the narrowest bandwidth. 🌍 [Macro & Geopolitical Situation: Middle East Essentially Downgraded] · De-escalation confirmed: The U.S. has "suspended" bombing of Iran; Omani officials visit Tehran for talks on Friday; Iran stated that as long as the U.S. maintains a ceasefire and Iraq ceases its attacks, it is willing to continue negotiations in Geneva; Hormuz Shipping and Oman talks "progress," Qatar emphasizes ensuring freedom of navigation — risk premiums continue to fall. Latest Driver: The Commander of U.S. Central Command has suggested stopping bombing around Hormuz because "the effectiveness has reached its limit," which was the key reason for Friday's halt to strikes against Iraq. Confirmation of the market: WTI crude oil $85.91 (−1.38%) continued to fall, gold $4,073 (+0.18%) lukewarm = the market priced in as "risk premium retreat." · The tail end is not over: Netanyahu visits the U.S. with harsh threats; Iran's Supreme Leader demanded a complete end to operations against Lebana as the primary condition for understanding with the U.S.; A Ukrainian drone strike on an Iranian merchant ship kills one crew member—de-escalation is the direction, friction persists. 📈 [ Technical Aspects · $BTC] (Indicator based on the closed candlestick, current price is marked separately) · Current price: 64,689 (24h +0.🚨 ETH is starting to flex on BTC 👀
Risk appetite is back with the US-Iran pause, and the charts are noticing.
📈 ETH/BTC just printed its highest weekly close in 3 months.
That’s a signal money might be rotating out of BTC dominance and into Ethereum.
Right now the setup favors $ETH more than $BTC.
Is this the start of an ETH comeback?
BTC is still the anchor, but ETH is building momentum.
Watch ETH/BTC closely. If it keeps climbing, this rotation gets real.
#DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit
#CXMTMemoryIPO