$BTC $ETH $SOL Conclusion first We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30% Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back Let's all get rich together

$BTC It's not without reason that there's no volatility. There's so much buying support between 62-67. But above 83-120, there are also 3 million tokens combined. To start a bull market, there must be enough momentum expectation to slowly consume these trapped chips. For now, it's stuck. But remember, a teacher once said, the market always moves toward the path of least resistance. It seems the least resistance is below 60k. Could it be that?!

$BTC 【Bear Market Bottom Fishing】Bitcoin at over 60,000 you ignore, Bitcoin at 120,000 you can't afford! Bitcoin has once again fallen back to the extremely cost-effective “very cheap zone” — below the 200-week moving average. Ironically: at the high of 120,000 everyone shouted buy, now it’s halved to just over 60,000, yet no one cares. This is the market iron law of “one profit, two breakeven, seven losses.” Bear markets always bottom amid panic and doubt. Bull markets mostly run their course amid skepticism. By the time everyone belatedly realizes “the bull market is here,” the market has already passed halfway. This cyclical pattern repeats endlessly—an unchanging human nature. Personal cycle logic and rhythm: At the end of last October (calling bear): the higher it rose, the more excited I was, because the high was a good opportunity to set up short positions; In August this year (building spot positions): the more it fell, the more excited I was, because the low was the golden period to accumulate spot positions in batches. Historically, when Bitcoin breaks below the 200-week moving average to build spot positions, the success rate is as high as 100%. History doesn’t simply repeat, but it always follows similar rhythms. According to the Pitchfork red midline support and weekly cycle model, the major cycle bottom is roughly around September-October (near 55,000). But no need to wait that long, because for some reason, it seems everyone already knows the bottom is in October 😂. Therefore, personally, the small cycle bottom around late August is also a spot entry point ahead of others. ⚠️ Reminder: Only do spot for the long term, reject high leverage: never get the big direction right but fall at the bull market’s eve. Keep cash reserves to guard against black swans: black swans are unpredictable, but when they happen, they are excellent opportunities to add positions. Prepare your bullets, stay rational, see you at the bull market peak! 🚀 Additionally, the small cycle model already warned of a peak in early August; currently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are undergoing corrections as expected. I will post separately about short-term operations. This article is about long-term thinking, don’t confuse the two. Trust my logic is very clear and easy to understand. (Personal opinion, not trading advice) Also, the code for the Bitcoin and Ethereum valuation range chart has been shared in the group, feel free to copy and use it directly!

$BTC 【Long-Term Cycle Analysis】Historical-Level Resonance Between CVDD and NUPL: Does the True Cycle Bottom Still Require One More Dip? From the perspective of Bitcoin's macro monthly chart over more than a decade, the linkage between CVDD (Coin Days Destroyed Value bottom line model) and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) has consistently maintained a highly tight synchronization. Comparing every deep bear market bottom in history (2015, 2018, 2022), this resonance pattern once again provides clear guidance for the current market evolution: the true macro cycle bottom is often accompanied by a deeper probing release. 1. Resonance Characteristics of Historical Bottoms (Green Highlighted Areas) NUPL's “Extreme Panic Zone” (< -13.000): At every absolute bottom of the cycle in history, NUPL without exception has fallen below the lower baseline into an extremely oversold negative zone (green shaded area in the chart), completing a full capitulation and clearing of positions. CVDD Double Track Bottoming: The price must deeply retrace and embed into the CVDD lower support band ($48,000–$57,000 range) on the monthly level, forming a solid structural hard bottom before starting a new long bull run. 2. Current Structure Comparison and Logic for a Lower Bottom Current position still appears relatively high: Observing the far right current status, Bitcoin's monthly price still hovers above the CVDD upper-middle track (~$62,983), while the lower NUPL currently only stagnates around 16.9, far from reaching the historical-level bottom clearing line (below -13). Synchronization inevitably requires a lower bottom: To maintain the astonishing “synchronized bottom” iron law of these two major indicators over more than a decade, the current sideways movement is only an intermediate adjustment. The market must experience an accelerated dip, pushing the price closer to the CVDD bottom track (around $48,000–$50,000 or lower), while forcing NUPL to break below zero and even deeply pierce the lower track, to truly complete the cycle-level turnover and bottom formation. (This is not investment advice, for reference only)

$BTC BTC Current Situation Analysis Historically, classic bottom support is characterized by spot volume expansion, combined with neutral or even negative futures funding rates, but the current structure is exactly the opposite. Spot relative trading volume hovers around 0.75-0.8, at a historical low within the past 5 years. It wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that crypto is currently "unattended." Therefore, marginal pricing power is basically handed over to the derivatives market. Since August 9, perpetual contract open interest (OI) has been continuously rising, suddenly surging to 524,000 BTC on August 14, the highest level in nearly three months. At the same time, the 7-day average long premium reached $242,000 per hour, returning to the high point areas of rebounds in January and May this year. The difference is: in the previous two instances, the premium reached this level only when the price hit a stage high, but this time the premium is already maxed out while the price is still in a correction. In terms of relative price performance, the crowding of longs is more severe than the previous two times, with overextension happening earlier. Price falls, OI rises, longs continue to pay premium, indicating leveraged longs are bottom-fishing and adding positions against the trend, while counterparties are firmly selling. This high-density opposing position buildup and directional divergence accumulation will ultimately be resolved in a "do or die" manner.

$SPCX Today after SPCX opened, it dropped all the way down, hitting a low of 135+ during the session, and has currently rebounded to 139+ Besides the reasons mentioned yesterday, today's price drop may be due to Cursor completing the delivery Although the acquisition of Cursor is a story from June, there is a hidden detail in the specific operation: the share swap ratio is calculated based on the volume-weighted average price of the seven trading days before delivery This is the textbook rehearsal of the previously mentioned Tesla—SpaceX merger Raising SpaceX's stock price while suppressing the acquirer's stock price is the most beneficial way for SpaceX/Elon Musk himself. Although he cannot directly manipulate the stock price, he obviously achieved his goal by precisely controlling the release of positive news to circumvent SEC regulation There are two more reasons for the drop to 135 today: On August 20, 319 million shares will be eligible for transfer, so funds reduce risk ahead of the weekend. Today is the weekly options expiration day; 135 dollars is both the IPO price and near the maximum pain point for options. After breaking below 139–140, call hedges withdraw and put hedges may amplify the decline; near 135, put profit-taking, hedge covering, and IPO price buying jointly contribute to the rebound. This is an amplifier, not the initial cause. Subsequent price: Reclaiming 139.5–140: indicates effective support at 135 Recovering 141.29 and further stabilizing at 143–145: today looks more like a fact-selling shakeout Closing at 135–139: structure remains weak, likely to retest 135 again before next week's unlock Closing below 135 without a rebound: look next at 132.5, then 130

$BTC BTC Price Analysis Summary: Following the previous analysis, the predicted decline point has been reached. The current trend is consolidating with fluctuations and a lower wick. Subsequent Price Projection: Due to the support from historical buy orders, the price rebounds to around 63000. After encountering resistance at 63000, it will gradually decline, first dropping to around 62467, then recovering to near 62500. Note that the long-term historical accumulation order block lower boundary near 61800 is very likely to be breached, allowing these accumulation orders to be executed. Previous Projection: After consolidation, the price continues to fall, with the first target to break below approximately 62661, then moving to 62500 to seek support. Actual Price Movement: After a small rebound, the price started to decline, with the current lowest point near 62500, followed by a small rebound to around 62900. Future Price Movement: Chip vacuum Short-term bears attacking the 63283-63033 bear attack line, with a downward trend. Medium and long term are both consolidating. Currently, this indicator still shows a downward trend, with resistance at 63283-63033. Liquidation Pain Points Map Medium-term bull pain points at 63083-62831 have just been breached, and the price is likely to consolidate in this area for a prolonged period. Price Channel Volume-weighted short-term average price 63130, upper limit 66530, lower limit 58260. Volume-weighted medium-term average price 63350, upper limit 66810, lower limit 58260. Volume-weighted long-term average price 70020, upper limit 93760, lower limit 59160. This indicator shows that both the upper limit and average prices are moving downward, indicating a weak trend. The price is running below the averages of 63130 and 63350, which act as resistance. Equity-weighted short-term average price 64120, upper limit 65620, lower limit 62310. Equity-weighted medium-term average price 64130, upper limit 65470, lower limit 62500. Equity-weighted long-term average price 64050, upper limit 65200, lower limit 62500. This indicator shows that the current price is below the averages, indicating a downward trend, but it has basically touched the lower limit of 62500, suggesting the price may stabilize near 62500. If the lower limit remains unchanged, the price may move toward the average near 64000. From both indicators, the trend is below the averages, weak and downward. However, since the lower limit has been reached, the price is expected to stabilize and begin consolidation. Resistance lines are at 63100, 63300, and 64100. Volume-Price Order Blocks Short-term accumulation buy orders continue to be placed lower, indicating a downward trend, with the latest lowest order at 62467. Medium-term is identical to short-term, with the latest order also at 62467. Long-term price is currently within the historical accumulation order zone 61896-63040. Attention should be paid to the attraction of the lowest price 61896, which is easily breached. This indicator shows that the latest orders continue to be placed lower, with the lower boundary near 62467, which coincides with the historical order zone. The price is expected to be attracted here, continuing downward to meet the demand for increased buy orders. Limit Order Absorption The previously mentioned medium-term historical bull attack zone 63900-62688 has been breached, leaving no clear target on the chart, indicating consolidation. Comprehensive Analysis: Chip vacuum, trend still downward, resistance at 63283-63033. Liquidation pain points, price likely to consolidate for a long time at medium-term bull pain points 63083-62831. Price channel shows a weak downward trend but has touched the lower limit, suggesting price stabilization and consolidation. Resistance above at 63100, 63300, 64100. Volume-price order blocks show the latest order lower boundary near 62467, coinciding with the historical order zone 61896-63040, with a possibility of breaching 61896. Limit order absorption shows no clear target, indicating consolidation. Overall, the trend is a rebound after the first bottom, with historical accumulation orders being executed. The new force is selling pressure, while the old force is historical accumulation orders passively supporting. The initiative lies with the new selling pressure. The price is close to the lower support at 62500, but buy orders continue to be placed near 62467, combined with historical buy orders at 61896-63040 attracting the price. With new selling pressure, the price is expected to rebound due to historical buy order support but will continue downward afterward, gradually fulfilling the demand of buy orders below.

$BTC Today's Market Overview (3) The current OI is quite scary.... In the past 5 hours of the Asian session, longs and shorts have been aggressively opening positions, and OI is already close to the highest point of this cycle... In June and July, there were several instances of OI this high.. The one-sided drop in June was a continuous increase in shorts, with longs frantically bottom-fishing halfway down and then getting liquidated repeatedly. After several peaks in July, there were basically violent rebounds that cleared the shorts. With OI this high now, I don't think the price will continue to push much lower today. OI has reached a recent high, leverage funds are all in the market, the bullets are spent.. You can also look back at Chart 2, the move from 60k to 82k in April-May-June.. After OI peaks, it usually marks a temporary end to an intraday move... OI resets, funds exit, and only then can the next wave be brewed..

$BTC Market Analysis In the video on August 9th, I mentioned that the important resistance level for $BTC above is at 65400. After being resisted there, it has since pulled back, currently down by 4.25%. What’s the outlook from here? According to Gann timing, when BTC dropped to 57800 on July 1st, I indicated this was a phase low and predicted at least a rebound of the same scale targeting the 82850-57800 drop. On July 19th, I gave the first wave peak at 66900, and after rising to 66956, it pulled back as expected. Currently, we maintain the same view — the movement starting from 66956 is a correction against the 57800-66956 rise (shown as the blue segment + blue box in the chart). This correction has completed over 70%, with two observation points below: 1️⃣ 61700: If this level is not broken downward, it indicates the movement from 66956 is a sideways consolidation, which will end the adjustment and start the next rise of the same scale as 57800-66956, likely before August 24th; 2️⃣ 57800-60500: After the daily candlestick body breaks below 61700, the most important support zone below is here. If this zone holds, the overall BTC structure remains intact, and there will still be another rise of the same scale. The crypto market has indeed been tough recently, with no strong short-term profit opportunities. But from a larger perspective, BTC is currently in the sowing season. Expecting crops to bear fruit in spring for an autumn harvest is unrealistic and against natural laws. Quietly cultivate and patiently wait for the harvest. During this period, if there are profit opportunities in other US stock targets, I will share them with everyone. Stay tuned.

$CRCL Figure 1 shows the expected trend chart of $CRCL drawn on April 30, and Figure 2 shows the current structure. It turns out the market is moving much slower than we imagined. What is the current outlook for CRCL? How to operate? Let's briefly discuss today: As shown in Figure 3, the 140-57.84 range represents a daily-level downtrend. As long as CRC can stay above 70 going forward, we can assume that the rebound starting from 57.84 is at least a daily-level rally. This rebound targets the 140-57.84 downtrend, and the rebound's endpoint should be at least above 80. Drawing a Gann angle line from the high point 140 to the low point 57.84, we can see that the 89 level is an important resistance. If it can break through and hold above this level, the nature of the trend starting from 57.84 may change. I have already built a partial position in CRCL during the downtrend, though the entry points were not ideal. This week just started to show floating profits. After the rebound hits the resistance level, I will consider whether to continue holding or reduce the position depending on the situation. Short-term traders can keep an eye on it; as long as it doesn't break below 70, I believe there are short-term buying opportunities.

$BTC 【On-Chain Indicator Deduction: BTC Classic "Triple Line Crossover" Endgame Reenactment】 Historically for BTC, the positional relationship among STH Realized Price (Short-Term Holder Cost), LTH Realized Price (Long-Term Holder Cost), and the Network Realized Price (Actual Cost) has always been the most hardcore on-chain signal for qualitatively identifying cycle bottoms. Reviewing the three deep bear market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, the market followed a completely consistent liquidation path: 1. The coin price continuously plunged deeply, forcing short-term high-chasing holders to cut losses and exit, accelerating the decline of the STH cost line; 2. Capitulation gradually shifted to long-term funds, causing the LTH cost line to slowly rise; 3. Eventually, the three lines formed an extreme convergence and completed a death cross/sticky crossover (STH falling below LTH/Network cost), marking the complete turnover of high-position chips and the official establishment of the cycle's iron bottom. Looking ahead to 2026, although the three cost lines are rapidly approaching, the final death cross convergence has not yet formed. The underlying logic of on-chain competition has never changed—only by forcing short-term holders to experience thorough unrealized loss capitulation and turnover can the long-term bottom structure be truly solidified. Based on past cycle patterns, the three lines will most likely reenact the historical trend to complete the final crossover. Enduring the quiet period and focusing on the final bottoming signal at the crossover completion is often the starting point for the next bull market buildup.