Someone asked me: SOL has been the most resistant to decline among the three legs these past two days, and the daily chart is still bullish, why don't you just go long? My answer is—resistance to decline doesn't mean strength, and it certainly doesn't mean I have to catch this move. My short position expresses the judgment that "the entire market is weak, with $BTC leading the downward grind," not that I have to find opportunities on every leg. The most common mistake retail investors make is wanting to jump on whichever asset is rising, ending up with a bunch of conflicting positions that cancel each other out. Less is more; for one market, I only place the bet I'm most confident in and just watch the rest. The more positions you spread, the more chaotic your mindset becomes.

There’s also a PPI on Thursday, and some people in the comments are already asking me, "Should I clear out before the data?" I’ll explain it in two ways: For those going against the trend or feeling uncertain, I definitely exit before the data—betting heavily on a coin toss event is foolish; but for those following the trend and already having a safety cushion, I’m willing to hold through the data—because even if there’s a rebound triggered by the data, the stop loss is already locked above cost, so the worst case is exiting without a loss. This is why the treatment of the "trend-following leg" and the "counter-trend leg" is worlds apart. Retail investors often like to go all in or all out, but the real question should be: For this position now, am I bearing the risk, or is the risk paying me? $BTC

The most common message in private chats these past two days: "Bro, gold stocks, storage, and AI concepts are rising every day. Is it still in time for me to chase the rally now?" My answer is always: by the time you ask this question, it's already too late. Hong Kong gold mining stocks surged +12% after earnings in one day, SK Hynix jumped +6.5% early on; these are profits others buried at low levels and are now cashing in right under your nose. You only rush in after seeing the news, essentially becoming the one catching the last baton. Chasing highs isn't impossible to profit from, but the odds are simply not enough to cover a single loss. None of the profitable trades I've made in my life were entered by chasing news headlines. When your hands get itchy, first ask yourself: am I making money from knowledge, or paying tuition fees?

Here's a mindset honed at the poker table that works just as well in trading: don't be results-oriented. Closing a trade early and missing out on a big gain can be more frustrating than actually losing money. Many people then chase the next trade emotionally, trying to revenge trade or add positions recklessly, turning a potentially profitable direction into a loss. To judge a trade's quality, focus on whether your logic and odds at the moment of entry were sound—not on whether you hit the top profit afterward. Missing out on some profit isn't a mistake; letting emotions drive you to recover losses is. Step away from the screen, take a sip of water—it's better than staring at that incomplete K-line candle.

Someone else is telling me again about the Middle East escalation, saying "War has broken out, $BTC should rise as a safe-haven asset." I advise you to discard that narrative first. This round, the US is imposing "unprecedented" sanctions on Iran and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The market is pricing it as "oil prices will rise, inflation will return, and don't expect interest rate cuts"—the result is gold hitting new highs, and crypto getting hammered along with risk assets. If you really want to see whether crypto will rise, don't watch the war reports; look at the 2-year US Treasury yield. Those who have treated "war is good for crypto" as a belief should have been educated several times over the past six months.

These past two days, a bunch of people have been asking: Storage and AI concepts have surged crazily, is it still in time to chase the long now? I closed out the storage short position I held against the trend a couple of days ago, and then just watched without moving. Some say I'm missing out — no, it's discipline. Going against the momentum of the entire sector's surge isn't bravery, it's throwing money away; and itching to jump in to catch the last wave when others have doubled up is definitely not my style. The profits in this field never come from every wave, but from the few waves you understand and dare to act on. For the remaining time, "not participating" itself is a position.

Seeing a bunch of people these past couple of days chasing the AI concept and rushing into hot sectors, I’m reminded of my early years in the industry—rushing into whichever sector was booming, only to always enter after seeing the news, standing on the shoulders of others unloading their positions. In poker terms, this is called being result-oriented: you think you’re skilled if you get it right once, but actually, you just got lucky and didn’t get buried. True experts look at expected value, not the win or loss of a single hand. Anyone can chase hot trends; the hard part is daring to lay low when no one is shouting and daring to pull back when the whole market is partying.