比特币子棋
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Too arrogant, too arrogant, why does this SanDisk SNDK keep rising with every positive news? I sold at the bottom and have been kicking myself ever since. I'll short it once I get a good position!
But I really can't rush now. Following the strategy I analyzed this morning, it's already close to the 1650-1700 range I mentioned. If it surges again when the market opens tonight, there will be a chance to short it!
Brother @王短鸟（长鸟版）, hang in there a bit longer. If you really can't hold on and need to cut losses, just let me know. I'll open a short position and if we profit, we'll both be happy 😄
July's CPI and PPI were both moderate, U.S. stocks continued to strengthen, the S&P hit new highs, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.8%. AI hardware stocks like MU and SNDK also increased.
However, $BTC remains stuck between $62,000 and $66,000, with trading volume and volatility continuing to decline.
This indicates the problem is no longer just macroeconomic but also internal to the crypto market.
ETF funds are indeed buying, but miners, corporate holdings, and trapped positions are selling, resulting in some absorption but no sustained price push.
Next, I’m only watching a few levels:
$63,000 is the box support line; if broken, watch out for further declines.
Reclaiming and holding $64,500 to $65,000 would signal a short-term strengthening.
A volume breakout above $66,000, along with ETF inflows resuming, would qualify as a trend reversal.
I’m not in a hurry to guess the bottom now.
The $6,000 in 2018 and $20,000 in 2022 both saw long periods of sideways trading, misleading people into thinking the risk was over. Often, what hurts most is not a big drop but the false sense of security created by the sideways consolidation.
Recently, #OKX has upgraded so many features!
Before, when checking the market, I would just watch the ups and downs to guess the direction; now, opening OKX TradFi, I can not only see the prices but also easily check company profiles, financials, shareholders, dividends, and the latest news all at once.
From "seeing the volatility" to "understanding the assets," this market information section upgrade really feels more like an investment research tool, which is interesting and very convenient!
Lately, I've been playing with dual currency wins, and I just happened to buy some ETH at a low price of 1700 at the end of the month. Do you think I should buy in? Actually, I don't want to buy in; I just want to earn some interest, honestly. Recently, with little crypto market movement, doing some wealth management is really quite appealing!😍😍😍
Why do you lose money as soon as you follow others who are continuously making profits?
After years of trading, I've found that the most dangerous times are not only when you yourself are on a winning streak but also when you see others winning consecutively.
In groups, people post screenshots of consecutive profits, tenfold, twentyfold, with win rates so high it seems like free money. When watching from the sidelines, you can stay rational, but after a while, you start to doubt: everyone else is making a killing, so what am I waiting for?
So you try a small position the first time and make a profit, increase your position the second time, and the third time you go straight to leverage. But ironically, the drawdown starts the moment you heavily follow others.
This isn't necessarily because others are deliberately trying to deceive you.
What you see is only their profit results, but you don't see their costs, positions, and stop losses. They might already have a profit buffer at a low point, so a 10% drawdown still means they're making money; you jump in at the peak of your emotions, and the same 10% drop could mean liquidation for you.
More importantly, consecutive profits can easily make the signal provider mistake market gains for personal skill, and make followers mistake survivorship bias for a stable win rate. When the market is favorable, even wrong methods can make money; when the environment changes, those who enter last usually pay the highest price.
The most ironic thing about trading is: others making money tempts you, and the more they show off, the worse your entry points tend to be.
Remember: you can refer to others' logic, but don't copy their positions; what you see is their profit, but the risk you bear is your own.
#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点
A week ago, MU and SNDK plummeted after their earnings reports, and the market was shouting "AI storage is over."
My judgment at the time was: the decline was not due to demand disappearing, but valuation digestion after expectations were overextended. What really needs to be observed is whether there is capital support after the drop.
Looking back now, this judgment has basically been confirmed.
MU stabilized above the $800–$820 support zone, then broke through $900 again, currently at $956, just entering the previously given target zone of $950–$1000.
SNDK's movement is even more typical; after the earnings report, I shorted near $1420 and took profits near $1270, capturing the expected decline.
Going forward, I believe:
MU should first focus on $950 to $1000.
If it holds above $1000 with volume, the trend can continue; if it falls back below $900, it means the selling pressure above has not been fully digested.
SNDK should first watch $1580.
After breaking through, it can target $1650 to $1700; if it rallies then falls back below $1500, watch for a pullback to $1350 to $1400.
My judgment has not changed:
The AI storage cycle is not over yet, but the market has shifted from "buy blindly and it will rise" to a stage where "orders, profit margins, and long-term guidance must be continuously fulfilled."
Trading is not a competition to sell at the highest point. The money that should be made has been made. The remaining part is not mine, and there is no need to chase it out of unwillingness. Stay rational and never get emotionally carried away!
比特币子棋
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
This round of decline looks more like a repricing after expectations were overdrawn; demand has not disappeared, but the market is no longer satisfied with "decent performance" and instead demands companies to continue significantly exceeding expectations.
Over the past year, capital has successively traded on AI computing power, HBM price increases, and storage cycle reversals. The question has shifted from "Does AI need memory?" to "How fast can demand continue to grow, and can profit margins keep improving?"
Micron (MU) benefits from HBM volume growth, AI server demand, and DRAM cycle improvement. The fundamentals have not significantly weakened. The post-earnings adjustment mainly reflects the previous excessive price increase, with capital beginning to digest the valuation.
Market focus: $800 to $820: first support; around $750: strong support; $900: short-term resistance. After stabilizing above $900, look towards $950 to $1000.
SNDK mainly benefits from NAND, enterprise SSDs, and AI data center storage. Earnings were good, but the market worries whether NAND prices can be maintained and how much room there is left for margin improvement.
Market focus: $1100 to $1150: short-term support; $1000: important defense level; $1300 to $1350: first resistance; $1500: confirmation level for trend strengthening.
My judgment is that the AI memory market is not over, but the easiest first phase to make money has passed. Going forward, the market will be more selective; only companies that can continuously deliver on demand, orders, and profit margins will qualify for higher valuations.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
So, can it really go up? Let's wait and see. The recent trend is still quite strong
比特币子棋
SPCX rose from 105 to 146: reversal or valuation recovery after lock-up expiration?
Here’s my judgment first:
The area around 105 has most likely formed a phase bottom, but 146-160 is not a comfortable zone to chase gains; buying here is not about cheapness but about a breakout.
In the previous round, SPCX fell from above 200 to around 105, mainly due to overvaluation, earnings expectations being overdrawn, and lock-up pressure releasing simultaneously.
Simply put, this was a valuation and chip sell-off, not a performance sell-off.
After stopping the decline at 105, the stock price consecutively reclaimed 120, 130, and 140, with higher lows starting to form, indicating the most pessimistic phase has passed, and the market’s pricing has begun to re-incorporate expectations for Starlink, AI, and a high-growth platform.
However, rising from 105 to 146 only confirms a strong recovery; it does not yet confirm the end of the downtrend. The 150 to 160 range is a previous trapped position and a dense trading zone, making it the toughest hurdle in this rebound.
If SPCX can consolidate with low volume between 140 and 150, then break out with volume above 160, the next target could be 175 to 180.
If it shows volume but cannot rise above 150 to 160, then falls back below 135 to 140, this rally looks more like valuation recovery rather than a new main uptrend.
So my thinking is very clear:
Below 160, I view it as recovery; holding above 160, then we start discussing reversal; breaking through and holding 180 qualifies for looking back above 200.
SPCX rose from 105 to 146: reversal or valuation recovery after lock-up expiration?
Here’s my judgment first:
The area around 105 has most likely formed a phase bottom, but 146-160 is not a comfortable zone to chase gains; buying here is not about cheapness but about a breakout.
In the previous round, SPCX fell from above 200 to around 105, mainly due to overvaluation, earnings expectations being overdrawn, and lock-up pressure releasing simultaneously.
Simply put, this was a valuation and chip sell-off, not a performance sell-off.
After stopping the decline at 105, the stock price consecutively reclaimed 120, 130, and 140, with higher lows starting to form, indicating the most pessimistic phase has passed, and the market’s pricing has begun to re-incorporate expectations for Starlink, AI, and a high-growth platform.
However, rising from 105 to 146 only confirms a strong recovery; it does not yet confirm the end of the downtrend. The 150 to 160 range is a previous trapped position and a dense trading zone, making it the toughest hurdle in this rebound.
If SPCX can consolidate with low volume between 140 and 150, then break out with volume above 160, the next target could be 175 to 180.
If it shows volume but cannot rise above 150 to 160, then falls back below 135 to 140, this rally looks more like valuation recovery rather than a new main uptrend.
So my thinking is very clear:
Below 160, I view it as recovery; holding above 160, then we start discussing reversal; breaking through and holding 180 qualifies for looking back above 200.
Tonight's CPI, the real focus is not 3.4%, but the core 0.2%
At 20:30 tonight, the US CPI will be released. The market expects a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a core month-on-month increase of 0.2%. Since the probability of a rate hike in September is still fifty-fifty, a 0.1 percentage point deviation in the core data could trigger a repricing of US Treasuries, US stocks, and BTC.
My judgment is: overall inflation continues to cool down, but the core won't be particularly good.
If the core is below 0.2%, it is favorable for risk assets, and BTC has a chance to break through $64,500 to $65,000, with a further target of $66,000; if the core reaches 0.3% or higher, US Treasuries and the dollar may strengthen, and BTC needs to guard against falling below $63,000, looking down to $62,500.
If the data meets expectations, I tend to think BTC will first surge, then fluctuate.
Don't rush to chase the first candlestick tonight. The real direction will be decided in the 30 to 60 minutes after the release, depending on whether US Treasury yields fall back and whether BTC can hold the breakout level. #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
It could be the bottom, but it might also just be a sideways movement within a downtrend.
So I'm still waiting.
Not because I can predict a lower point, nor because I have to catch the absolute bottom, but because the current structure doesn't yet justify me taking the risk of heavy positions and making mistakes.
If BTC regains and holds the key resistance, confirming the trend, I can buy at a higher price, sacrificing some early profits for a clearer entry reason, which I can accept.
If $60,000 ultimately proves to be the bottom, I'll accept that too.
I used to think missing out was a loss, but now I understand that missing out at most means less profit, while heavy positions taken at the wrong time can make you leave the table.
The longer you trade, the more cautious you become.
If you don't understand it, don't trade; if the trend hasn't emerged, just wait; if you judge wrong, be willing to admit it; if you reach your planned profit, be willing to exit.
In 2018, I saw many people disappear, and in 2022, another group replaced them. Every bull market brings new experts, but after the bear market ends, many of their profiles have long gone dark.
So when someone asks me now what the biggest lesson in trading is, I won't say catching the bottom or escaping the top.
I have simply finally accepted something very ordinary yet hard to do: there is a lot of money in the market, but not every bit belongs to me.
Dare to miss out, dare to stay out of the market, dare to admit mistakes, dare to take profits, and dare to admit when you really don't understand the current market.
Whether $60,000 is the bottom or not, let the market decide. I just need to ensure that when I truly understand it next time, my principal is still intact, and I am still at the table.
比特币子棋
Many people say 60,000 is the bottom, but I still want to wait, even if I miss out!
The longer I stay in the crypto circle, the more I realize that those who truly survive several bull and bear cycles all have a bit of "caution".
In the first two cycles, when trading, I always felt that every penny in the market should have a share for myself.
When BTC starts, I fear missing out;
When ETH rises, I quickly look for the next surge;
When SOL goes up, I check which other public chains haven't moved yet.
When I see Meme suddenly double, even though I don't know what the project is about, I still can't help but rush in.
Back then, the biggest fear wasn't losing money, but others making money while I didn't.
BTC hovered around 60,000 for two months, many people already started calling it the bottom, ETFs were supporting it, and the price had dropped a lot, it really looked cheap.
If it were before, I probably would have jumped in.
Because I would think: What if 60,000 USD really is the bottom? What if it rebounds directly tomorrow? What if everyone else has made money and I'm still waiting?
But after experiencing several bull and bear cycles, I'm increasingly afraid of this kind of "what if".
What really costs people dearly in trading is often not missing out, but unwillingness to accept it.
Unwilling to miss out, so chasing before the trend confirms;
Unwilling to take losses, so holding on even after breaking the plan;
Unwilling to take profits, so watching gains ride a roller coaster;
Unwilling to admit mistakes, so turning short-term trades into mid-term, mid-term into value investing, and ending up confused as a shareholder.
It's the same with 60,000 USD now.
Many people say 60,000 is the bottom, but I still want to wait, even if I miss out!
The longer I stay in the crypto circle, the more I realize that those who truly survive several bull and bear cycles all have a bit of "caution".
In the first two cycles, when trading, I always felt that every penny in the market should have a share for myself.
When BTC starts, I fear missing out;
When ETH rises, I quickly look for the next surge;
When SOL goes up, I check which other public chains haven't moved yet.
When I see Meme suddenly double, even though I don't know what the project is about, I still can't help but rush in.
Back then, the biggest fear wasn't losing money, but others making money while I didn't.
BTC hovered around 60,000 for two months, many people already started calling it the bottom, ETFs were supporting it, and the price had dropped a lot, it really looked cheap.
If it were before, I probably would have jumped in.
Because I would think: What if 60,000 USD really is the bottom? What if it rebounds directly tomorrow? What if everyone else has made money and I'm still waiting?
But after experiencing several bull and bear cycles, I'm increasingly afraid of this kind of "what if".
What really costs people dearly in trading is often not missing out, but unwillingness to accept it.
Unwilling to miss out, so chasing before the trend confirms;
Unwilling to take losses, so holding on even after breaking the plan;
Unwilling to take profits, so watching gains ride a roller coaster;
Unwilling to admit mistakes, so turning short-term trades into mid-term, mid-term into value investing, and ending up confused as a shareholder.
It's the same with 60,000 USD now.