毓鑫YuXin

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August 31st, just after the weekend, don't rush to chase yet. The weekend didn't crash down, but that doesn't mean Monday will take off directly. On the Dingchou day, fire enters damp earth—in trading terms, this means the market has rebound intentions, but whether it can truly strengthen depends on whether key resistance levels can be overcome. Today is suitable for waiting for confirmation, not rushing in at the first sign of a bullish candle. Metaphysics is just a reference; real orders depend on price. Let's first look at Crypto. BTC is currently around 77,928, down about 0.4% in 24 hours, but slightly up 0.1% over the past week. The weekend didn't continue to fall, indicating there are indeed buyers around 77,000; but the price falling back to 78,000 also shows that the pressure above 80,000 hasn't been fully digested yet. Today's core BTC range: support below is first at 77,000-77,500, then further down at 75,000-76,000. On the upside, resistance is at 78,500-79,000, strong resistance at 79,500-80,000; if it truly breaks through, the target can be seen at 81,000-82,000. The most critical point now is not how much it rebounds, but whether the 80,000 level can be reclaimed. If it is reclaimed, the previous hawkish surge can be considered held; if 77,000 breaks again, watch for a retest of 75,000-76,000. ETH is around 2,433 now, down 1.1% in 24 hours and down 1.5% over the week. Support is at 2,400-2,420, strong support at 2,350-2,380; resistance above is 2,470-2,500, with a breakout target of 2,550-2,600. The logic is straightforward: if 2,500 can't be reclaimed, altcoins can't truly feel comfortable. BTC standing above 80,000 and ETH breaking through 2,500 simultaneously means Crypto's risk appetite is fully restored. If BTC rebounds but ETH is held down at 2,500, then continue to treat BTC as strong and altcoins as weak. In the US stock market, last Friday the S&P closed at 7,711.76, down about 0.25%, the Nasdaq closed at 26,402.42, down 0.52%, and the Dow was almost flat at 53,559.99. Nvidia fell 4.6%, Marvell fell 10.3%, with more stocks declining than rising. Tonight, the main focus is whether the S&P can hold 7,680-7,700, with resistance at 7,750-7,800; Nasdaq looks to hold 26,200-26,300, with resistance further up at 26,500-26,700. If Nasdaq retakes 26,700, last Friday's drop is considered mild; if 26,200 breaks, AI and semiconductors may continue to see valuation cuts. This week also features the US August nonfarm payrolls, with market expectations of about 58,000 new jobs and unemployment steady at 4.1%. If employment is stronger than expected, the rate hike logic will strengthen; if significantly weaker, pressure on risk assets may ease. Gold is around 4,454 spot now. Last Friday, influenced by hawkish comments from Powell and rising US Treasury yields, gold fell about 3.2% in one day. Today's support is first at 4,420-4,450, then further down at 4,380-4,400; resistance above is 4,480-4,520, and to turn strong again it needs to break above 4,560. If 4,420-4,450 holds, combined with a retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields, gold can still have an oversold rebound; if 4,380 can't hold, don't rush to catch the falling knife. Oil prices are also a major variable today. The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated; Brent crude initially surged to 90.32, now retreating to about 89.38; WTI initially hit 85.41, now around 84.50. The market's biggest fear is the combination of rising oil prices → rising inflation expectations → higher US Treasury yields → more hawkish Fed → pressure on gold, Crypto, and high-valuation tech stocks all at once. Today, just focus on a few key levels: BTC at 77,000 and 80,000; ETH at 2,400 and 2,500; gold at 4,420 and 4,520; S&P at 7,700 and 7,800; Nasdaq at 26,200 and 26,700. On the Dingchou day, fire is suppressed by damp earth. I interpret today's market as one sentence: there will be a rebound, but don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. True strength can only be confirmed after a breakout. Which do you think will be reclaimed first: BTC 80,000, ETH 2,500, or gold 4,520? Risk warning: The above content is only personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Metaphysical content is for traditional cultural interest reference only. The current market is still repricing the Fed's rate hike path, while the Middle East situation and rising oil prices may further amplify volatility. Please control your position size and leverage, and strictly set stop losses.

Lately, I've been immersed in event predictions every day, and a brother came to ask me: You're into football, LOL, and F1, what exactly do you rely on to guess? Surely not just pure intuition? Actually, no. I've been playing OKX Prophet Season 2 recently, and I'm increasingly convinced that the biggest fear in prediction isn't getting it wrong, but guessing right by chance and not being able to explain why. I watch football, LOL, and F1, but the prediction logic for these three is completely different. Let's start with football. I usually don't look at team names first; I pull data from the last five to ten matches. Form and home/away stats are much more reliable than the standings. Even big clubs can't be blindly followed every match. Injuries and rotations must be closely monitored, especially during congested schedules—whether key players rest or core forwards play completely changes the game script. There's also a common rookie mistake—looking at wins/losses and handicaps separately. Just because you think the home team can win doesn't mean they can cover a two-goal spread. These two things don't conflict at all. Now for LOL. I actually don't put much faith in historical records; when the version changes, past references lose half their value. First, look at the version—is it early-game fighting or late-game farming? Have lane swaps, jungle, or resource mechanics changed? Which heroes suddenly became popular? Second, look at the draft and hero pools; in BO3, you can steal a game with a special pick, but BO5 tests depth more as it goes on. Third, mid-game decision-making—some teams can get lane advantages but mess up in resource fights. You can't use the same logic for BO3 and BO5; in strong matchups, 3-1 or 3-2 is much more reliable than a blind 3-0. F1 is a whole different game. I don't even look at the driver standings first; I check the track and then the car. High-speed tracks, street circuits, and tracks with high tire wear are completely different for different cars. You also need to know how to read practice data; the fastest lap in P1 might be from low fuel and soft tires, but long-run pace and tire degradation are key for the race. Qualifying and race pace must be analyzed separately; a fast single lap doesn't mean a fast race pace. Pole position value in Monaco and Monza is completely different. Weather and safety cars can force all models to be recalculated if it rains. These three have different gameplay, but in the end, I do the same thing—I compare my judgment with market prices. If I think the chance of a certain outcome is clearly higher than the market price, I continue researching. If it's something the whole market knows, the price already reflects it, and no matter how correct your view is, it has no value. So now, when I make predictions, I care less about having to guess right every single game and more about having logic before the match, watching changes live, and reviewing after. If football loses, I check if I misunderstood the handicap; if LOL loses, I see if my version judgment failed; if F1 loses, I check if I misread the car or if strategy and safety cars messed things up. Writing down these mistakes is where prediction gets truly interesting. Moving forward, I'll keep doing football, LOL, and F1 because the most fun part of the prediction market isn't who I think will win, but when your judgment clashes with market pricing, who really understands the game better. #OKX达人 @misaENFP @okxchinese @wallet The above only represents personal event analysis and prediction ideas and does not constitute any investment or betting advice. There are many live variables in matches; participate rationally.