Today, several news items about corporate treasury narratives are quite interesting: 1. SharpLink plans to stake $200M $ETH through Lido, receive wstETH, and then entrust it to Anchorage Digital for custody. This indicates that ETH treasuries are not just buying and holding ETH; they are starting to pursue yield; 2. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund holds $81.9M BitMine stock, which means it indirectly gains $ETH treasury exposure through a listed company. This shows institutions don’t necessarily buy crypto directly; they can gain crypto beta through stocks; 3. AVAX One’s revenue last quarter rose 460% year-over-year to $2.8M, but due to $AVAX holdings impairment, net loss expanded to $35.1M. This shows that earning interest can’t fully offset asset price declines. Previously, companies buying BTC mainly focused on reserves; now companies holding ETH start focusing on yield; in the future, companies holding altcoins will talk about volatility and impairments. Because everyone is beginning to understand that companies buying crypto is not just about belief, but also about cash flow, debt, dividends, custody, accounting impairments, and financing capacity. So next time you see a company buying a certain coin, first ask five questions: Where is the money coming from? Is it BTC, ETH, or more volatile altcoins? Is there debt or dividend pressure? Will asset declines affect financial reports? Is it a long-term reserve or a financial position that can be sold anytime?

An abstract but true message: JPMorgan terminated Polymarket's banking services last October due to regulatory concerns, but now it is vying for the underwriting opportunity of PM's future IPO 🤡. A few days ago, Ajian also mentioned that PM is seeking over $1B in funding with a valuation of about $20B, so the bank verbally claims regulatory risks are too high while wanting to grab this hefty IPO fee. This contradiction is not unique to JPMorgan; it reflects the true mindset of the entire traditional finance sector facing crypto. Whether Wall Street admits it or not, prediction markets are no longer just simple on-chain BC websites; they have started entering the traditional financial processes of investment banking, IPOs, valuations, regulations, and litigation. This leads to traditional finance being hypocritical—regulatory fear and profit desire coexist. They neither want to bear operational risks nor miss out on capital market profits. The evil capitalists—they don't want to help you collect money, but they want to help you go public. They neither love nor hate you; they won't bear the risks, but they want the profits 🤡

ARKF just bought 192,702 shares of $SECZ.US, valued at about $1.09M. Meanwhile, Securitize's Q2 revenue was $14.4M, down 5% year-over-year, with a net loss of $21.7M, and the stock price once dropped 27.5%. As one of the representative companies of RWA, ARKF's purchase adds to Securitize's narrative, but the losses in the financial report and the stock price pullback also remind us that the new issue for RWA is not whether it can be put on-chain, but whether it can make money after going public. Ordinary traders should not equate institutional purchases like ARKF's with the company having no problems, because sometimes institutions buy future options, not current profits. RWA merely moves traditional financial costs onto the chain, which does not mean it can escape commercial rules. This is the reality of RWA: asset tokenization is good, having licenses is good, and being bought by institutions is also good. But in the end, the question remains whether the revenue is sufficient, costs are high, and whether the secondary market accepts it.

Today's analysis of $UNI $HYPE $PUMP: UNI snapshot is about $3.49. Even though Standard Chartered Bank's analyst says the $100 target by 2030 is too low, the short-term price doesn't lie and remains weak. The long-term narrative relies on burn and value capture, while short-term trading depends on support and volume. Personally, I wouldn't chase a long-term target because $100 is not a conclusion but a result of a bunch of assumptions stacked together. HYPE snapshot is about $56.89. Today's protocol revenue is about $1.16M, so this is not a weak project, but it's also not a low-leverage environment. When I watch HYPE, I focus on three things: whether revenue continues to hover around $1M, whether open interest (OI) keeps building, and whether the price can reclaim around $58.3. PUMP snapshot is about $0.0029. Today's protocol revenue is $1.13M, with over 100,000 users. This line has revenue and traffic, so it's not a pure pump-and-dump rebound. But considering the overall market performance, PUMP's strength seems more like a localized attention-driven rally rather than proof of a broad bull market.

July PPI remained flat month-over-month, far below the expected increase of 0.2%, marking the lowest level since March. This is the second cooling inflation data this week following the CPI. Notably, the core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, actually rose by 0.4% month-over-month, mainly driven by prices of motor vehicles and equipment, indicating that within the overall trend of cooling inflation, some subcomponents are still strengthening against the trend. On the other hand, initial jobless claims for the week were 209,000, significantly higher than the expected 202,000. This is another confirmation of cooling in the labor market following last week's weak nonfarm payroll report. Viewed together with the PPI, the two core clues for the Federal Reserve's decision— inflation and employment—are both moving toward supporting the maintenance of current interest rates or even a rate cut. However, initial claims data for a single week tend to be volatile and should not be overinterpreted. Overall, the market's pricing in of no rate hike in September has further solidified. This direction is jointly indicated by two independent data sets (CPI and PPI) along with employment data, making the confidence in this expectation adjustment higher. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大

A month ago, Ajian analyzed how the US securities depository and clearing company DTCC completed the first batch of tokenized asset trading tests in a production environment, with participation from over 30 traditional financial institutions and digital asset companies, and plans to officially launch the service in October. In this past month, stock token products from various CEXs, including Binance, have been developing at a doubling speed, which makes me want to explain this matter in more detail. Unlike ordinary asset mapping, DTCC's solution allows tokenized securities to retain all ownership, investor protections, and rights arrangements corresponding to traditional securities, rather than simply issuing a shadow token. As the core infrastructure institution of the US securities clearing and settlement system, DTCC personally conducted production environment testing instead of staying at the proof-of-concept stage. This signal carries more weight than any crypto-native company launching tokenized products themselves. The underlying clearing of traditional finance is truly migrating onto the blockchain. Earlier, the SEC approved Nasdaq in March to allow eligible listed securities to be traded in tokenized form, still using the same CUSIP codes as traditional stocks, possessing the same substantive rights, and continuing to trade under existing securities regulations. It is clear that tokenized securities are advancing with the idea of "new wine in old bottles, but with higher underlying settlement efficiency," rather than creating a separate parallel system outside regulation. This is Wall Street's usual approach and explains why this path is more easily accepted and cooperated with by institutions compared to many pure DeFi tokenization attempts. Therefore, I believe the official launch of DTCC's service in October is a concrete milestone worth marking on the calendar. After that, the tokenized securities sector will see a substantial expansion on the supply side. Starting to understand the basic product forms in this field now will be much more composed than scrambling after it goes live.

At 8:30 PM tonight, the U.S. will release the July Producer Price Index (PPI) and the weekly initial jobless claims, which will be the last piece of the inflation puzzle this week. The market consensus expects: PPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month, year-over-year to drop from 5.5% to 4.9%; core PPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, year-over-year to drop from 4.7% to 4.2%; initial jobless claims expected at 202,000, previous value 199,000. First, you need to know that PPI is a leading indicator for the future core PCE (the inflation gauge the Fed truly watches), measuring whether pipeline pressures are continuing to ease; initial jobless claims, following last week's weak nonfarm payrolls, are another piece of the labor market puzzle. Both data sets will be released simultaneously, testing the core clues for Fed decisions on inflation and employment. If PPI also meets or falls below expectations like CPI, and initial claims show the labor market is indeed cooling, this will further confirm the narrative of a moderate slowdown; but if PPI unexpectedly rises, even if CPI has already settled, it could reignite concerns about core PCE. So although PPI usually doesn't directly impact market sentiment like CPI, this time, ahead of the September decision, its weight will be higher than usual, so watch for volatility tonight as well.

$BTC is currently gathering around $63,000 with roughly one-tenth of the circulating supply in position demand, forming a clear demand shelf; while around $69,000 is the recent average entry cost for buyers, creating a resistance level for corrective testing. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 50-month exponential moving average currently stands at $65,827. Historically, failure to reclaim this moving average often signals the last wave of decline in a bear market. This provides a clear structural framework for the price range after this round of CPI release: resistance from the $69,000 break-even positions and the $65,800 moving average above, and dense demand support at $63,000 below. This range basically confines Bitcoin's actual volatility during this period. However, regarding such historical cycle comparisons, Ajian's consistent stance is to reference but not blindly trust them, since both the macro environment and institutional participation differ greatly from before to now. Simply applying historical patterns carries inherent risks. But the key on-chain data support levels at $63,000 and $69,000 are very convincing because they correspond to real position cost distributions. Therefore, as ordinary traders, any price information supported by on-chain data should be weighted more heavily than support/resistance lines drawn purely from technical analysis, because technical lines are essentially self-fulfilling psychological expectations, whereas on-chain position distributions are structural data backed by real money.

Today's analysis of $SOL $HYPE $DOGE: SOL snapshot is about $76.52. 102 validators briefly went offline, the network did not stop, and recovered in 40 minutes; the GSR model raised SOL's weight to 43.6% again. These two pieces of information indicate that technically, Solana has passed a small stress test; financially, SOL is still considered a relatively strong asset by some models. But the price only rose slightly today, my observation range is $75.3-$77.1. Holding the lower boundary indicates continued support; breaking through the upper boundary is needed for stronger momentum. HYPE snapshot is about $57.31. It outperformed the broader market today, but with heavy leverage. HYPE is not a pure narrative coin; it has revenue and trading volume. However, it is not a low-risk asset because the perp ecosystem itself is highly volatile. So when looking at HYPE, you need to consider revenue, open interest, and liquidations together, not just price gains. DOGE snapshot is about $0.0706. DOGE futures open interest rose to about $1.21B, close to the level in October 2025, but the price is much lower than then, and longs are dominant on OKX. This is not a structure I like: weak price, high leverage, crowded longs. This combination is most vulnerable to sudden long liquidations. For DOGE to regain strength, it cannot rely solely on open interest; we need to see spot buying and price rising together.