8.7｜100U Contract Challenge｜2nd Profit Withdrawal Start Date: July 31 This Withdrawal: 47U Account After Withdrawal: 100U Total Withdrawn: 207U Current Total Net Profit: 207U 【Challenge Rules】 ✔ Initial principal fixed at 100U ✔ No additional principal added ✔ Withdrawal amounts and timing are flexible ✔ Each withdrawal is recorded separately ✔ Final profit = total withdrawn + account balance - 100U 【Personal Trading Rules】 ✔ Do not pursue a high win rate, pursue a reasonable risk-reward ratio ✔ Accept judgment errors, do not prove yourself by holding losing positions ✔ Exit promptly when wrong, hold as much as possible when right ✔ Do not be affected by short-term profits or losses, strictly follow trading rules ✔ Control risk first, then consider profit Currently mainly trading $ETH $SKHY $MU Every confident trade will be documented in posts Only personal trading records, not investment advice.

#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 $SNDK If it's not SanDisk, what are you going to do! The Investor Day just gave a growth forecast for 2030, and the market immediately treated it as if it had to be realized tomorrow, resulting in a straight 100-point surge. My short position opened at 1542 hasn't even warmed up, and I was taken out early. When it falls, it drags on slowly; when it rallies, it doesn't even give the shorts a moment to breathe. Now, storage trading is no longer about current performance, but about pricing in AI demand for the next few years all at once. The fundamentals can be realized slowly, but the shorts' stop losses have to be realized today. I'm impressed.

$AAPL Recently, AAPL has been continuously falling from the high of $344.57 at the end of July, with the lowest point retesting around 300, a maximum drawdown close to 13%. As of the close on August 13, the stock price returned to $305.26. Although it has climbed back above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, it is still below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, so it currently looks more like a correction after a decline, and it cannot yet be confirmed that a new upward trend has started. I opened a long position at 305, currently basically near the cost. This position is not bad because it is close to the 300–302 support area, but discipline is necessary. ✔ If 300–302 holds, I will continue to expect a rebound ✔ 307–310 is the first resistance; if volume supports a stable break above 310, then look toward 315–319 ✔ If it repeatedly fails to break through 307–310, I will consider reducing my position a bit first ✔ If the daily chart effectively breaks below 300, it means the rebound logic fails, and I will not blindly add to my long position Apple’s fundamentals are not bad; the latest quarterly revenue was $109.4 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share grew 29% year-over-year. The real issue now is not whether the company can make money, but that the valuation is still relatively high, and the market’s expectations for AI, new products, and subsequent growth are also increasing. My judgment is that 305 can be used as a defensive long position level, but it is not a blind buy. If 300 holds, there is room for a rebound; if 300 does not hold, downside risk will reopen.

#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX The recent rally in the storage sector is indeed not just pure speculation. ✔ AI servers continue to drive demand for high-bandwidth memory, server memory, and enterprise-grade SSDs, with manufacturers shifting more capacity to higher-margin products, causing ordinary storage supply to remain tight. ✔ Hynix and Micron's earnings are growing rapidly, and SanDisk has set very aggressive long-term profit targets at its investor day, prompting capital to revalue the entire storage sector. However, although storage prices are still rising, the pace has clearly slowed compared to Q1. In the medium term, high-bandwidth memory and server memory remain strong, but by the second half of 2027, flash memory may gradually loosen as new capacity is released, and the sector will no longer see indiscriminate gains. I shorted SanDisk at 1542, mainly betting on a pullback after a big rally. Currently, SanDisk's short-term trend is still strong, closing at 1528 during regular trading hours and then returning near 1570 after hours, with significantly increased volume. So this short position can only be treated as short-term for now, and adding to the position blindly is not advised. ✔ 1580–1600 is a key resistance zone ✔ Only breaking below 1520 will the short position truly take control ✔ On the downside, first watch 1480, then around 1450 ✔ If volume increases and it holds above 1600–1610, I will cut losses immediately and stop holding the position My judgment is that the medium-term trend in the storage industry is not over yet, but SanDisk's single-day gain is too large, and a short-term correction is indeed needed. The most important thing now is not to guess the top but to guard the invalidation level and wait for price confirmation.

#Crypto valuation shifts to income, how is BTC priced? $BTC $ETH Recently, the trends of BTC and ETH have not been strong, with prices consistently suppressed below key resistance levels and limited rebound strength. A new round of decline has not yet been confirmed, but the risk level has reached a point that requires attention. ✔ BTC is clearly weaker BTC's recent highs have been steadily moving down from around 65400, with support between 62800—63200 repeatedly tested. The real danger is if it breaks below 62800 and the rebound still fails to reclaim 63000. If it then fails to hold 62200, it could continue to test the area near 60000. ✔ ETH is temporarily stronger than BTC ETH is currently oscillating mainly between 1850—1950, with 1850 being a very important defense level for this bullish phase. If it breaks below 1850 and the rebound cannot reclaim 1860, it may continue down to 1820, 1800, and if weakness persists, possibly back to around 1750. Conversely, ETH needs to first reclaim 1930 and then break through 1950 with volume to truly open up new upside potential. ✔ CPI impact is somewhat positive, but crypto market reaction is muted This time, CPI and PPI are relatively mild overall, and market expectations for a September rate hike are declining, which should normally be positive for risk assets. However, after the US stock market rose, BTC and ETH did not show obvious follow-through gains, indicating that active buying in crypto is still relatively weak, which is a point to be cautious about. ✔ If looking for short positions I think it’s not suitable to chase shorts directly now because BTC is already near support and ETH is in the middle of its range; shorting in such positions risks sudden rebounds. For BTC, you can wait for a rebound to around 64000—64400, then if there is a clear spike and pullback with the 1-hour or 4-hour candle closing back below resistance, consider shorting. Another approach is to wait for BTC to effectively break below 62800, then enter after a failed rebound to 62800—63000, rather than chasing after a single wick. For ETH, wait for a rebound to 1930—1950 to face resistance while BTC remains weak, then consider shorting at the top. Or wait for ETH to break below 1850, then enter after a failed rebound to 1850—1860. Stop loss should be placed above the rebound high; if the price reclaims the key level, it means the short trade logic has failed. ✔ My trading approach I am still holding my ETH long from 1879 and remain bullish for now, but will not add more at the current level. As long as 1850 is not effectively broken on the 4-hour chart, the bullish structure is not completely invalidated. If it breaks below 1850 and the rebound cannot reclaim it, I will first manage my long position. Closing longs and reversing to shorts are two separate actions; I will wait for rebound confirmation rather than emotionally chasing shorts near support. Being bullish is fine, but you must clearly define your invalidation point for your judgment.

$SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU Storage sector rebound: CPI is just a catalyst, AI demand is the main driver Recently, the storage sector has rebounded after a high-level pullback. The US July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core CPI up 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, all in line with expectations. The data did not bring a rate cut surprise but reduced the pressure for further rate hikes in September, pushing US Treasury yields down and leading to a valuation recovery in tech stocks. On the day CPI was released, Micron rose about 4.9%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased about 2.5%. However, the CPI mainly affects short-term sentiment and valuations and does not directly change the supply and demand in the storage industry. The real support for the industry still comes from AI servers. Manufacturers continue to shift capacity toward HBM, server DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs, keeping traditional DRAM and NAND supply tight. TrendForce expects general DRAM contract prices to increase 13%–18% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, and NAND Flash to rise 10%–15%. It should be noted that the price increase trend continues, but the growth rate has started to slow. The consumer side, including PCs and smartphones, is nearing its limit for high-priced storage, with weak demand for client SSDs, mobile NAND, and consumer-grade DRAM. The storage market is shifting from "industry-wide price increases" to structural differentiation. For the foreseeable future, I remain moderately bullish on storage in the mid-term, but short-term volatility will be significant: SK Hynix and Micron benefit more from HBM and server DRAM; enterprise-grade SSDs still have AI data center demand support; consumer-grade NAND has relatively weaker certainty. Therefore, this market rally should not be simply understood as "CPI is positive, so storage continues to rise." CPI only alleviated valuation pressure; the true determinant of the mid-term trend remains AI capital expenditure, HBM orders, and whether DRAM and NAND contract prices can continue to be realized. In short: the storage cycle is not over yet, but it has moved from the steepest price increase phase into a stage where fundamentals remain strong, yet market expectations are increasingly high.

#7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ $BTC $ETH CPI landed: BTC didn't rise, ETH stronger, will there be a rate hike in September? The July CPI released tonight rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, all in line with market expectations and continuing to decline from last month. This data is a "small positive" for the market, not a "big positive." It rules out the risk of inflation exceeding expectations again, forcing the Fed to accelerate rate hikes, but since the result was not below expectations, it is insufficient to drive the market to reprice easing. So, will there be a rate hike in September? This CPI weakens the necessity for a rate hike but does not completely rule out the possibility. Overall inflation is still at 3.4%, significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, and energy prices have increased nearly 15% year-over-year; however, core inflation is cooling, employment data is clearly weakening, and the Fed currently has no urgent reason to tighten policy further. The market currently estimates about a 55%–60% chance of holding rates steady in September, and about a 40%–45% chance of a rate hike. I personally also lean toward pausing rate hikes, but the final decision will depend on upcoming PPI, August CPI, and nonfarm payroll data. The price reaction of the coins is also very real. BTC fell from around $64,400 to $64,080 after the data release, then continued to oscillate around $64,000. This indicates macro pressure has eased, but the market lacks new buying interest, and BTC remains within the large range of $62,000–$66,000. In contrast, ETH held near $1,900, showing significantly stronger intraday performance than BTC, indicating funds are tentatively testing riskier assets with higher volatility. However, ETH still needs to firmly hold $1,903–$1,910 to have room to challenge $1,925–$1,940; if it falls back below $1,880, this rebound will noticeably cool off. Overall, this CPI only "removes some of the negatives" and is not a signal of a trend reversal. What really matters next is whether BTC can break out with volume after the US stock market opens, and whether ETH's relative strength against BTC can continue.

#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $ETH Why has ETH been consolidating repeatedly recently? Is it suitable to open a position now? ETH quickly rose from around 1650 to 1975, then did not continue a one-sided rally but oscillated repeatedly between 1845 and 1930. This does not mean the market is completely directionless; rather, the chips after the rise are being redistributed: ✔ There is obvious profit-taking above 1920 ✔ Continuous absorption appears around 1840–1850 ✔ BTC is still oscillating near key support ✔ Before the CPI release, neither bulls nor bears are willing to bet on direction early The most important thing now is not the large upward channel, but the 1845–1930 range. 1840–1850: lower boundary of the range 1888–1895: short-term bull-bear dividing line 1915–1930: main resistance above 1950–1975: previous high supply zone ETH is currently near 1880, in the middle of the range, with a poor risk-reward ratio, so I will neither open a long directly nor chase shorts. If it rebounds to 1890–1895 and is resisted again, the short-term targets remain 1860 and 1845; if it breaks below 1845 effectively and fails to recover on a pullback, then further attention should be paid to 1820 and 1800. Long positions need to wait for a firm break above 1895 and a confirmed pullback without breaking; only a further break above 1930 offers a chance to challenge 1950–1975 or even 2000 again. My judgment is: slightly bearish short-term below 1895, but the best choice now is still to wait. CPI will be released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time; do not gamble on the first candlestick of the data-driven move. Let the market complete the repricing first, then open positions based on the breakout direction of 1845 or 1895.

$MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX Storage opens tonight: most stocks turn green, but it cannot yet be defined as a reversal After the U.S. stock market opened tonight, the storage sector did not continue to collectively plunge but showed a clear differentiated recovery. ✔ SK Hynix ADR rose about 2.9% ✔ SanDisk rose about 1.2% ✔ Western Digital and Seagate both rose about 0.8% ✔ Micron fell about 0.8% ✔ Nvidia rose about 0.9% On the surface, most stocks turned green, but the sector is not consistent internally. SanDisk received a buy rating with a target price of $1600, combined with last week's continuous sharp decline, driving an oversold rebound in NAND and HDD directions; SK Hynix ADR performed the strongest, indicating that the HBM and undervaluation logic still have capital support. But the real focus remains on Micron. Micron once surged to 877.5 after the open, then quickly fell back to around 845, and has not yet stood back above the previous closing price. This indicates that capital is willing to bottom-fish flash memory and SK Hynix but is still cashing out high-position chips in Micron. ✔ Key prices tonight Micron: 845 support, 870–878 resistance SanDisk: 1230 support, 1285 resistance Western Digital: 432 support, 448–450 resistance SK Hynix ADR: 135–136 support, 140–141 resistance For the storage sector to upgrade from "oversold recovery" to "trend reversal," Micron first needs to firmly stand above 870–878, while SanDisk and SK Hynix ADR break through their opening highs. For SK Hynix contracts, tonight's ADR rise will bring short-term rebound pressure, so I will not chase shorts near 1000. If the rebound is blocked again at 1015–1030, consider adding positions; 1045–1055 remains a more ideal strong resistance zone. On the downside, only breaking below 980–970 will reopen 950; if 950 continues to fail, the final target looks at 930. ✔ Trading iron rule Never bet on the first candlestick of the open, because the win rate could be zero. Tonight's open has again proven: prices can first surge, then plunge sharply, and then continue to rebound. Let the first round of long-short clearing end, then decide based on resistance and support. My judgment remains unchanged: tonight is an oversold recovery, not a trend reversal. The rebound only provides position, it does not mean the overall direction has changed.

#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ The probability of a September rate hike returns to 50/50 $BTC $ETH At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US will release the July CPI. Current market expectations: ✔ Overall CPI year-on-year falls from 3.5% to 3.4% ✔ Core CPI year-on-year falls from 2.6% to 2.5% ✔ Probability of a September rate hike is about 52% Last week's weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll data has pushed the September rate hike probability down from 67% back to 50/50. The real market trade now is which side— inflation or employment— the Fed should be more cautious about. ✔ CPI higher than expected The probability of a September rate hike may heat up again, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, and BTC, ETH continue to face pressure. Key BTC levels to watch are 63000–63500; if broken, it may test 62000 further; if ETH falls below 1850, be cautious of a further pullback to 1800–1820. ✔ CPI meets expectations The market is unlikely to immediately end the 50/50 pricing; the market is more likely to experience a double-sided shakeout before awaiting PPI, retail data, and the next employment report. BTC may continue to oscillate between 63000–66000, while ETH focuses on the 1850–1950 range. ✔ CPI lower than expected The probability of a September rate hike continues to decline, and risk assets may rebound. However, BTC needs to firmly hold above 66000, and ETH must break through 1950 and hold above 2000 to confirm that this is not just a short-term recovery driven by data stimulus. This CPI release will rewrite the September rate hike pricing but will not directly decide whether the Fed will ultimately raise rates. There is still another nonfarm payroll and CPI release before the September meeting; Wednesday is more like the first round of repricing, not the final answer. ✔ Trading rule Never bet on the first candlestick after data release. Data-driven moves often first sweep one side before moving in the real direction. Before repricing is complete, the win rate of the first candlestick may be zero. My judgment is: CPI determines the short-term volatility direction, and key price levels determine whether the trend can continue. Data can create sentiment, but ultimately it depends on whether BTC can hold above 66000 and ETH can break through 1950.