Post

#FOMCRateCallThisWeek The interesting part isn't that markets expect a hike. It's how quickly everyone changed their mind 👀 Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and HSBC now expect a 25bp hike on Sept 16, while market pricing is hovering near 90%. A Reuters survey has 86 of 101 economists expecting the same move. What caught my attention is the reasoning. August PPI jumped 5.4% YoY, while inflation remains stubborn enough to challenge the idea that the Fed can simply wait. Goldman, however, sees a hike partly as avoiding a sharp reversal in market pricing rather than responding to a dramatic deterioration in fundamentals. That creates an unusual setup. If the Fed hikes, the move itself may matter less than whether Warsh signals more tightening ahead. If it holds, markets will immediately ask why the Fed ignored inflation while nearly everyone expected action. Either way, Wednesday isn't just a rate decision. It's a credibility test for the Fed's new policy framework, and the answer could move yields, the dollar, gold and BTC well beyond the initial 25bps.