Welcome everyone! Feel free to ask questions, discuss the market, and chat here. I will post some real-time news in the group, such as earnings reports, non-farm payroll data, etc. $BTC I hate you, hurry up and go up, is it possible that the rate hikes are just a smokescreen? #PPI、CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days

#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 On one side, institutions are desperately scooping up assets, while on the other, macro data is sounding alarm bells wildly. This is quite surreal. The Federal Reserve just restarted rate hikes, with expectations for another hike in October soaring above 70%, the 30-year US Treasury yield breaking through 5.5%, and consumer one-year inflation expectations spiking to 4.6%. All data points are pressing risk assets down hard. And yet? $BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive days, cumulatively attracting $2.8 billion, with nearly $1 billion flowing in on September 21 alone, marking a new high for the year. Even though BTC dropped from 87,000 to 84,000, ETF funds keep flowing in. This is clearly a battle of the titans. Wall Street institutions are using real money to buy the dip, braving macro pressures. But looking closely, daily inflows have dropped from nearly $1 billion to $191 million, raising questions about how long the ammunition will last.

#霍尔木兹重开现转机，油价风险溢价会降吗？ The Iranian president said he does not want nuclear weapons and is willing to negotiate; the foreign minister said they are willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days (but with conditions); regarding the airspace, it's "if you open, I open; if you close, I close." The stance is quite low-key, clearly aiming to ease the tension. This news directly boosted the market, and the logic is simple: geopolitical risk recedes -> oil prices fall -> inflation expectations cool down -> Fed's rate hike pressure lessens -> risk assets (Bitcoin, US stocks) get a breather. Once the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens, the global energy supply chain's tight constraints can loosen. But if you ask me whether the negotiations will succeed, I still have my doubts. In Iran's third point, it clearly states "but with the condition of meeting... (requirements)." This is a typical bargaining chip. For the US, completely lifting sanctions is impossible; for Iran, reopening the strait without lifting sanctions is also unacceptable. This kind of "you make a concession, then I make a concession" negotiation often goes through twists and turns, and if someone throws a cold shot in the middle, they might immediately fall out again. When I saw the news, I was a bit excited, thinking about whether to chase a long position. But then I thought about how recently I was exhausted from being hit on both long and short sides, and the feeling of watching the market at midnight calculating margin is really unpleasant, so I decided against it.

#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Watching the price movements of these coins today, I'm honestly a bit confused. $XPL unlocked 1.76 billion tokens today, worth $160 million, accounting for 63% of the circulating supply. Normally, such a massive unlock would crash the price, but instead, it rose 17%. Simply put, the negative news has been fully absorbed, and after a 94% drop, some capital is speculating at the low level. CYPH is even more impressive, directly benefiting from the $ZEC surge. This company has transformed into a ZEC treasury, holding 323,000 ZEC and acquiring a mining pool that accounts for 18% of the entire network's hash rate. ZEC has increased 21-fold in a year, and its unrealized gains in Q2 alone reached $46 million. Buying it is essentially buying a leveraged ZEC exposure with built-in mining. $GRASS hit the narrative of DePIN and infrastructure, and the project team is about to launch Stage 2, giving the market new expectations. The logic behind the rise of these coins differs: XPL is a case of negative news fully priced in, CYPH is riding the ZEC rally, and GRASS is driven by narrative rotation. But the common point is that none of their fundamentals suddenly improved; they are all driven by external sentiment. In this kind of market, chasing highs is easy to get trapped, better to just watch the show.

#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ The Fed just finished raising rates, and the expectation for another hike in October has been pushed down to 70%. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker even said that inflation hasn't made enough progress and more hikes might be needed. According to the old script, BTC should have been crushed by now. But this time it's different. Not only did Bitcoin not crash, it even briefly broke through 87,000 this week. Just take a look at the capital flow and everything becomes clear. On September 21, the US $BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $999 million, setting a new high for 2026. Not to mention Strategy's corporate treasuries, which are quietly increasing their holdings. Institutions are not fleeing during the rate hike cycle; instead, they're charging in. In short, BTC's sensitivity to interest rates is changing. Rate hikes used to drain liquidity, but now Wall Street treats BTC as an allocation asset, buying on dips and firmly absorbing selling pressure.

#财报观察员: Costco's performance exceeds expectations, Micron takes over $COST Costco's earnings report really makes people love and hate it at the same time. Revenue reached 95.7 billion, up 11.1% year-over-year, and net profit increased nearly 15%. Such strong consumer demand indicates the US economy is still hot — but this is not good news for the crypto space. When the economy is good, expectations for rate hikes don't come down, so non-yielding assets like $BTC have to keep enduring. But I don't have time to worry about Bitcoin right now. The $WDC grid I have, with 168U principal, is at a floating loss of 1.47%, but thanks to the grid strategy, it has stubbornly squeezed out a +7.24% profit. The price is 455, range 430 to 499, liquidation price 180, temporarily safe. Without the grid, this position would have been cut long ago. What really puts my mind at ease is the optical communication grid running for 41 days. Entered at 78.6, it dropped to a low of 52, and every midnight I nervously watched the liquidation price. Now it has stubbornly recovered to 76.39, total return +32.69%, grid profit +67.25%, and I pushed the liquidation price down to 20.97 with extra margin, completely removing the liquidation alarm. So facing Micron's earnings report on October 1, I don't want to guess the direction. Costco has already proven consumer demand remains strong, and Micron's AI storage demand is very likely to be good as well. But the logic of “good data = aggressive rate hikes” is still the market's tightening curse.

#BTC pullback after a surge, has market rotation begun? What happened? $BTC and $XAU gold suddenly surged together! Last night’s scene was really a bit unexpected. BTC jumped directly from 83,500 back to 84,900, and gold also rebounded sharply from 4,251 to 4,278. Both candlesticks jumped up together, leaving me stunned. I quickly checked the news. It turned out that several Fed officials like Barr and Collins collectively turned hawkish again, shouting that there’s still a nearly 70% chance of a rate hike in October. Logically, with rising rate hike expectations, risk assets should fall, so why did they rise instead? Simply put, it’s the "bad news is already priced in" scenario playing out again. After the rate hike landed, BTC stubbornly held from 75,600 all the way up to 87,000, rising 13%. ETF funds flowed back nearly $1 billion in a single day, plus shorts were forced to cover in a squeeze, which propped up the market. Gold’s situation is even more absurd; the market is no longer trading on rate hikes but on "currency devaluation trades" — with the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repos, concerns over the dollar’s credit and debt have long outweighed the impact of short-term rates. Seeing through this logic actually calms me down. This kind of market just slaps you back and forth; chasing highs when it rises easily traps you, and panic selling when it falls hurts the most. What to watch next? Tonight about $15 billion worth of $BTC options expire, which is a big test. If the selling pressure can be absorbed, it means this rebound is backed by real money.

#BTC surged then pulled back, has the market rotation started? BTC surged to 87,000 then dropped again, now the whole network is shouting "altcoin season is here." Looking through Glassnode data, 72.5% of assets outperformed BTC in the past week, ZEC, NEAR, $UNI soared, even Meme coins like PEPE and DOGE are bouncing along. Honestly, I just closed my BTC long that tortured me for two months. Seeing this rotation, it’s hard not to feel envious; my thighs are almost bruised from patting myself. But if you ask me to chase these altcoins now, I really can’t bring myself to do it. Just checked those coins that skyrocketed: $ONE dropped 30% in one day, MUBARAK was cut in half outright. The worst part is the funding rates, ridiculously high. Even if you correctly short them, the tiny spread you earn isn’t enough to cover the interest, basically working for the market makers for free. Going long is even scarier; these markets pumped by BTC’s bleeding capital can crash anytime, and holding the bag means death. Is this rotation a healthy bull market diffusion, or just funds with nowhere to go during $BTC’s sideways movement temporarily gambling on altcoins? On September 25th, there’s $16 billion in options expiring, big volatility is inevitable. My mind is very clear right now.

#BTC price surged then fell, has the market rotation started? These two coins that frantically pumped before $BTC's explosive rise are now all crashing without exception. $ONE dropped straight from 0.006 to 0.002, falling nearly 30% in one day. $MUBARAK is even more extreme, halving right after hitting 0.088, now lying at 0.053. The logic is too obvious: they hyped up before the big BTC rally to attract copycat buyers. Once BTC pulls back, even slightly trembling, these altcoins fall like kites with broken strings, free-falling. I originally thought it was great—since they fall with BTC, I could just keep shorting along the trend and make easy money lying down. But what happened? The coin prices did fall, but I couldn’t make any profit at all! The funding rates are outrageously high! Shorting not only yields no profit, but you also have to pay huge interest daily to the longs. This is clearly a trap set by the whales, forcing shorts to pay up or get disgusted into closing positions. As long as BTC doesn’t have a major correction and stays sideways here, shorts are just working for the longs, and the funding fees alone can drain you. If you pick the right direction, you lose fees and funding costs; if you pick the wrong direction, you get liquidated immediately. Shorting is like being a dog, and longing is also like being a dog. Forget it, I really can’t play these high-fee altcoins. Better to hold U honestly and let the grid run. This kind of dog-whale market, even looking at it is disrespectful to yourself.

#How long will the Fed officials' intensive hawkish talk and rate hikes continue? Tonight's Fed drama is even livelier than the crypto market's candlesticks. Barkin, Collins, and Mouselim came out one after another calling for continued rate hikes, with 16 officials expecting more hikes this year. Over at the White House, Hassett is anxiously protesting, questioning why hikes must continue. The louder the argument, the more it shows the hawks haven't backed down at all. Once rates go up, non-yielding assets like $BTC are the first to get drained. As mentioned before, you can be bearish, but only when macro conditions align. Now, the alignment is here. But just because the direction is right doesn't mean you can blindly charge in now. Having just closed my long positions, I'm actually very clear-headed now. I'd rather stay flat and wait for a breakdown than nakedly chase shorts. At this level, even a slight short squeeze rebound will kill naked shorts worse than longs. The big picture is bearish, but you have to time your moves carefully. Don't be stubborn or blindly follow. Watch how it moves first, then act after a breakout. What do you think? Can this hawkish chorus completely extinguish the crypto market's already fragile risk-on sentiment?