$BTC slightly rebounded to $75,800 after hitting a low of $74,800 early this morning, but the decline that started near $80,000 is still hard to say is over. A rebound itself does not equal a trend reversal; the resistance at $80,000 has been tested multiple times, and breaking through requires new positive catalysts, while macro headwinds have not yet dissipated: oil prices remain above $100, energy costs continue to exert inflationary pressure, the 10-year US Treasury yield once approached 5%, the US dollar remains strong, and the market expects about a 90% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, progress on the CLARITY Act is stalled, adding another layer of uncertainty to crypto regulation. If interest rates and the dollar continue to strengthen, risk asset valuations will be under pressure, making rebounds easier to be absorbed by selling; regulatory delays may also suppress the willingness of incremental funds to enter. Overall, short-term recovery may exist, but until macro pressures clearly ease and key resistance levels are firmly reclaimed, the tendency to seek support below remains unchanged. Going forward, watch whether support around $74,800 holds and whether Treasury yields and the dollar can retreat. ⚠️ The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Do you think $74,800 can hold?

The AI computing power narrative is currently undergoing a reassessment from the security perspective. Anthropic's head publicly warned that the expansion speed has exceeded the safety tolerance, and Musk immediately echoed this, with funding first withdrawn from the storage segment. On Monday, $SNDK fell nearly 5 percentage points in a single day, hitting about 8 points at its lowest intraday level, which seems more like a position repricing on whether the computing power story can continue rather than a fundamental change in the company. SanDisk just spun off from Western Digital in February this year, mainly focusing on NAND flash and solid-state drives, with revenue exceeding $20 billion in the last fiscal year, doubling growth. Data centers contributed nearly $3 billion each quarter, about one-third, driven by AI training and inference demand. This raises questions: if new models are more memory-efficient, will storage demand shrink? If safety concerns slow down data center construction by major companies, will order momentum loosen? Currently, there are no answers. In the crypto market, AI, DePIN, and computing power tokens often follow the US tech stock chain. If the latter continues to weaken, $FET, $RNDR, and $TAO may also face pressure simultaneously. It is advisable to observe the linkage rather than judge in isolation. Risk reminder: The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice; please manage your positions independently. Do you think this round of adjustment is an emotional release or a trend reversal?

On September 15, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, once again shelving the regulatory framework for crypto market structure. $BTC and the overall market immediately came under pressure, with $ETH falling back to around 2400. What makes this round of decline special is that both policy setbacks and technical weakness appeared simultaneously, rather than a single negative factor. The failure of regulatory expectations will weaken institutional entry confidence and may also delay the pace of related compliant product rollouts. This is the most direct transmission chain currently. For traders, 2400 itself is not a reason to rush in; it is more important to observe whether the 2356 to 2416 range can be regained and held. Only a valid recovery above 2490 provides a basis for further discussion. If this range is lost, $ETH may further test lower support levels, and $BTC's correlated performance will determine the overall market sentiment direction. The market is not lacking narratives right now; what it lacks is the ability for narratives to translate into real buying power. Rather than betting early on positive outcomes, it is better to wait for price confirmation. Risk reminder: Regulatory progress and key technical levels are uncertain. The above is only a market logic analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Would you rather wait for confirmation or position early?

The real variable tonight is not whether the Fed will raise interest rates, but how it will phrase its statement after the rate hike. The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point increase; if the tone is cautious after the announcement, it could trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" style sell-off. If the wording is hawkish, implying continued tightening, $BTC, $ETH, and U.S. tech stocks will need to brace for pressure. Especially $BTC, the first surge after the news may not hold steady, and chasing the rally could lead to a pullback lesson; $ETH might experience even greater volatility, so it’s worth closely watching whether key support levels hold. As for $SNDK, interest rates have a more direct impact on tech stocks, and if U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, high-valuation assets will face significant pressure. More broadly, if tightening expectations intensify, a stronger dollar will suppress overall risk asset valuations, and funds may temporarily flow back into safe havens. Another risk lies in the expectation gap: if the dot plot or the statement is more hawkish than the market anticipates, volatility could extend across days rather than being digested overnight. Conditions to watch include the post-meeting statement’s guidance on the path forward, the direction of U.S. Treasury yields, and whether $BTC can hold its previous high support. Ultimately, how much the market has priced in ahead of time is more critical than the rate hike itself. Risk reminder: The above is only a market logic analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Do you lean toward a rebound after the bad news is fully priced in tonight, or another round of hawkish pressure?

On the eve of the FOMC decision announcement, the market entered a highly tense wait-and-see mode, with $BTC repeatedly tugging around 75000, and the direction remains unclear. If a rate hike is implemented, a short-term purge may occur, but the probability of a deep dip is limited; if unexpectedly no change is made, sentiment recovery could push prices to test higher levels again. $ETH hovers around $2400, being more sensitive to macro liquidity; its decline during rate hikes is often greater than Bitcoin's, while its rebound elasticity is stronger during easing, so volatility tolerance needs to be prepared in advance. $DOGE is about $0.08, lacking fundamental support, with price movements almost entirely driven by sentiment; it falls quickly when news weakens and tends to surge when the market warms up. In terms of impact, the decision results will quickly transmit to the US dollar and US Treasury yields, thereby amplifying short-term volatility in the crypto market, with high-volatility coins under more pressure during liquidity tightening. The risk lies in the expectation gap itself: even if the result meets expectations, subtle changes in the statement wording or dot plot may trigger intense shocks. Observation conditions can be placed on the volume and key price level support after the decision; if volume expands and holds steady, the direction is more credible. Overall, uncertainty remains high, so light positions and waiting for clearer direction are safer than betting on one side. Risk reminder: The above is not investment advice; please conduct your own research. Are you more focused on the decision itself or the market reaction afterward?

A well-known large long $ETH position is approaching the liquidation line, which may be the most direct reflection of the current market sentiment. This position holds 12,500 ETH, with 25x leverage, an opening average price of $2468, a current price of $2405, a liquidation price of $2364, an unrealized loss of about $787,500, and only $41 left before forced liquidation.😰 What is more noteworthy is the background: the CLARITY Act vote failed to pass, and the market is starting to tighten on longs. In the past week, positions in $BTC, $HYPE, $PUMP, and others have successively stopped losses and exited, realizing a cumulative loss of about $4 million, with only this ETH long position still holding on. This is not only a dilemma for the individual position but also reflects the fragility of leveraged longs after policy expectations have fallen through. If ETH continues to decline, forced liquidation may amplify short-term volatility; if it stabilizes and rebounds, it may alleviate some pressure. Mainstream coins like $SOL are also affected by sentiment. Risk warning: High leverage positions carry extremely high risk. The above is only a summary of market information and does not constitute any investment advice. How policy variables and price fluctuations will evolve still requires continuous observation.

ETF single-day net outflow of $450 million, market confidence loosens accordingly, mainstream cryptocurrencies collectively weaken, contract side liquidations reach $670 million within 24 hours, about 120,000 forced liquidations, with long positions losses particularly concentrated. $BTC currently around $76,000, $73,800 is the key support below; once broken, a large number of buy orders may be forced to exit; heavy selling pressure near $78,400 above, significant resistance to rebound. $ETH at $2,407, following Bitcoin's rhythm, $2,320 and $2,270 form two supports, obvious selling pressure near $2,530. $SOL dropped below $100 to $97.3, if $94 breaks again, large buy orders may be cleaned out, heavy pressure above $107. $XRP at $1.287, consolidating narrowly, buy orders concentrated around $1.22, breaking below may trigger chain liquidations. Institutional funds continue to withdraw, indicating lack of support for rebound, short-term sentiment recovery will take time. If Bitcoin can hold $73,800 and retake $78,400, the market may see a phase of easing; otherwise, the risk of leveraged chain liquidations remains. ⚠️Risk warning: The above is a market information summary and does not constitute investment advice. Which price level's gain or loss are you more concerned about?

Tonight's focus is not on whether to raise interest rates, but on where the Federal Reserve's dot plot will guide expectations. The market has pushed the probability of a 25 basis point hike to nearly 90%, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and HSBC also shifting toward a rate hike forecast. However, Goldman Sachs warns that this round of heightened expectations is more due to the Fed's reluctance to reverse market pricing rather than a substantial deterioration in the inflation fundamentals. The contradiction lies in that Trump and White House advisor Hassett have publicly opposed rate hikes, creating a clash between political pressure and data pressure. If no action is taken, an explanation is needed for why the PPI at 5.4% and the CPI monthly rate at 0.4% can be ignored; if a rate hike occurs, the market will question whether there will be follow-ups within the year. For $BTC, the decision is only the first layer; the dot plot is the valuation anchor. If it implies continued action, risk assets like $ETH and $SOL will remain under pressure; if it signals that rate hikes are nearing an end, sentiment may get a breather. After the decision, the direction of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will quickly transmit to the crypto market, with liquidity tightening often first suppressing high-volatility assets. Another risk is that expectations have been fully priced in; if the result meets expectations but lacks dovish language, it could trigger a sell-off after the initial rally. It is not advisable to heavily bet on a single direction before the decision; both bulls and bears are waiting for the numbers, and volatility could expand at any time. Going forward, watch the dot plot's hints on the remaining path for the year and Powell's wording changes regarding inflation stickiness. Risk reminder: The above does not constitute investment advice. Are you leaning toward a rate hike tonight or an unexpected pause?