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HORMUZ IS STILL THE WILD CARD FOR OIL AND CRYPTO Talks between the U.S., Iran, and Oman have moved, but they are not finished. The disagreements are still about shipping routes, transit fees, and the rules for passage. Until that is locked in, the geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz stays on the table. Markets are pricing it in. Brent is trading near $84.95 because traders don’t want to get caught offside if tensions flare again. Why this matters for crypto is simple. When Hormuz is tense, oil goes up. Higher oil keeps inflation expectations elevated. If inflation stays high, the Fed has less room to cut. That pushes the dollar and Treasury yields higher. And when the dollar and yields rise, liquidity gets pulled out of risk. That is when $BTC and the rest of crypto feel the squeeze. Now flip the scenario. If Hormuz opens and stays open, that risk premium comes out of oil. Oil cools. Inflation pressure eases. The Fed gets more flexibility. Risk appetite returns. That opens the door for $BTC and the broader market to recover. So watch this as one system. Hormuz, Brent, the dollar, yields, and $BTC price structure are all connected right now. The bottom line is clear. No deal means the risk hasn’t gone away. A real, durable agreement would be a major tailwind for risk assets. A breakdown would bring volatility back immediately. Follow for clear updates and straight analysis on crypto and Wall Street. #AIInfraFundingDiverges #CPIToResetFedBets $BTC