#存储股财报后续跌,AI内存牛市还稳吗?
This round of decline looks more like a repricing after expectations were overdrawn; demand has not disappeared, but the market is no longer satisfied with "decent performance" and instead demands companies to continue significantly exceeding expectations.
Over the past year, capital has successively traded on AI computing power, HBM price increases, and storage cycle reversals. The question has shifted from "Does AI need memory?" to "How fast can demand continue to grow, and can profit margins keep improving?"
Micron (MU) benefits from HBM volume growth, AI server demand, and DRAM cycle improvement. The fundamentals have not significantly weakened. The post-earnings adjustment mainly reflects the previous excessive price increase, with capital beginning to digest the valuation.
Market focus: $800 to $820: first support; around $750: strong support; $900: short-term resistance. After stabilizing above $900, look towards $950 to $1000.
SNDK mainly benefits from NAND, enterprise SSDs, and AI data center storage. Earnings were good, but the market worries whether NAND prices can be maintained and how much room there is left for margin improvement.
Market focus: $1100 to $1150: short-term support; $1000: important defense level; $1300 to $1350: first resistance; $1500: confirmation level for trend strengthening.
My judgment is that the AI memory market is not over, but the easiest first phase to make money has passed. Going forward, the market will be more selective; only companies that can continuously deliver on demand, orders, and profit margins will qualify for higher valuations.
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