Post

Many friends are still focusing on individual stock trends this week, but actually this week is not very suitable for that because a new risk has emerged in the macro environment — whether the economy will decelerate. Based on previous analysis, inflation data is weakening, the expectation for a rate hike in September has been lowered, but this has triggered a new risk of economic deceleration. Starting from last week's retail data, this week will gradually verify whether this conclusion holds. A soft landing for the US economy is the best outcome, but if stagflation and recession risks appear, the impact on high-beta assets like tech stocks will be most significant. Because the economy is weak and risk appetite is low, investors tend to shift into a defensive investment mode. The most obvious performance today is the change in the SPHB/SPHQ ratio, which dropped directly from 1.73 on Monday to 1.69, indicating a decline in risk appetite. Funds are moving from high-beta stocks to high-quality stocks, a typical defensive capital rotation. Generally, when this happens, it means the stock market is worried about the economic environment. Continue to watch this indicator this week. If the indicator continues to decline, especially with increasing stagflation and recession risks, high-quality stocks tend to be more resistant to declines, and the ratio will gradually get lower. Conversely, a rebound in the ratio means risk appetite is increasing! #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高