#TreasuryUpsBuybacks
About TreasuryUpsBuybacks
On Aug 19, the US Treasury announced a cap increase on liquidity-support buybacks for 10- to 30-year Treasuries from $2B to at least $4B per operation, effective Sep 9 to Nov 4. The 30-year yield eased from 5.29%-5.32% to 5.18%-5.20%. Buybacks support market liquidity and debt management; they are not Fed rate cuts or QE. If they only briefly calm volatility, markets still face long-term rate pressure from deficits, bond supply and inflation expectations, weighing on stocks, gold and BTC.
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Bitcoin ripped about 7% on Wednesday and briefly touched $69,750, its highest since early June and biggest single day percentage gain since March.
Coinglass put 24 hour short liquidations near $1.37 billion, over $1 billion inside an hour.
The clearest macro catalyst was Treasury debt management, not Fed policy. Treasury will at least double its long end liquidity support buybacks, lifting the per operation cap to at least $4 billion on 10 to 30 year paper, Sept 9 through Nov 4. The 30 year yield fell about 9bp to roughly 5.19%. Lower long end yields mean less opportunity cost for holding an asset that pays none.
The Fed was pulling the other way. July's 9 to 3 vote, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari dissenting for a hike, was known in July, its first three way same direction dissent since 2016. Wednesday's minutes added the debate: AI related price pressures alongside tariffs and energy.
Flows tell a messier story:
· Spot BTC ETFs bled $390 million Aug 10 to 14, FBTC leading at $153 million
· Then $297 million in Aug 17 and $189 million Aug 18
· Wintermute flagged miner selling and ETF redemptions as a supply drag
So this was a positioning led move rather than proof of durable demand. Shorts were crowded, a macro headline hit, the squeeze did the rest.
The bigger story came a day earlier. On Aug 18 the SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, its first crypto offering framework. Emphasis on proposed: 60 day comments, nothing in force.
As drafted, two registration exemptions, $5 million over four years or $75 million per 12 months plus financial statements and reporting. The centerpiece is a conditional safe harbor. It is not automatic. The issuer must permanently cease all essential managerial efforts, make no new promises, and file a public certification. Preemption reaches only transactions the rule covers.
BTC opened the year near $87,500. August is a recovery inside a wider drawdown.
Two stories, 24 hours apart. Which one still matters a year from now, the price move or the SEC framework?
#BTCBreaks69000 #TreasuryUpsBuybacks #FOMC9To3Split
Last night’s move really buried us shorts underground.
But losses can’t be in vain, so I reviewed it again: $BTC surging to 72000 wasn’t a takeoff out of thin air.
The first spark came from U.S. Treasuries.
The U.S. Treasury raised the single repurchase limit for 10- to 30-year long bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and the 30-year yield immediately fell from around 5.3% to about 5.2%. It’s not QE, but it temporarily #BTCBreaks72K #FOMC9To3Split #PopMartEarningsWatch
Why is Bitcoin rising? $BTC
The move may have less to do with crypto-specific factors and more to do with liquidity, positioning, and macro conditions.
Here’s the breakdown:
The U.S. Treasury has increased the size of its bond buybacks, with individual operations rising from around $2B to at least $4B.
The focus is on longer-dated 10–30 year Treasuries, meaning the government is buying back some of its longest-term debt.
This comes as the 30-year Treasury
#BTCBreaks69000
BREAKING: The US 30 year yield is already back above 5.22% after yesterday's crash.
It hit 5.337% on Tuesday, the highest since 2007, then fell to 5.18% within an hour of the Treasury announcing it will double its long term bond buybacks.
Part of that crash has already been given back.
$BTC
#TreasuryUpsBuybacks
Don't confuse Treasury buybacks with stimulus.
The goal is smoother bond market trading, not easier monetary policy. Yields may cool in the short term, but deficits and inflation haven't disappeared.
Liquidity can improve without becoming loose. Do you think markets are reading too much into this move?
Bitcoin is surging hard on the news that the U.S. Treasury is going to buy back $4B of debt to "increase liquidity support by at least double"
Welcome back, money printing 🫡
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The US Treasury announces it will double the size long-term US government debt buybacks following the rapid surge in US Treasury yields.
Repurchases of $2 billion will now be increased to "at least" $4 billion, the US Treasury said.
The move is intended to provide "liquidity support" for bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years as total US debt nears $40 trillion.
There is the intervention we have been calling for.
The Treasury’s larger liquidity-support buybacks may smooth trading at the long end, but the distinction from monetary easing matters. From Sep 9 to Nov 4, the cap for 10- to 30-year Treasuries rises from $2B to at least $4B per operation, while the 30-year yield has eased from 5.29%-5.32% to 5.18%-5.20%.
My read: better market plumbing can reduce short-term volatility without changing the underlying price of duration risk. If deficits, bond supply and inflation expectations remain persistent, pressure on stocks, gold and BTC may reappear after the initial relief fades. Not advice, just analysis.
#TreasuryUpsBuybacks
🔴 Treasury Boosts Buybacks
U.S. Treasury is raising long-end liquidity support buybacks from $2B to $4B+ per operation starting Sept. 9.
More liquidity support could ease pressure on long-term yields and impact risk assets.
Watching closely.
#XiaomiQ2Earnings
Adding the missing piece: Japan's 10-year JGB just hit a 30-year high too, and Japan's the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. If capital heads home, that's less demand for the long end exactly when it needs buyers most. Two central banks, one yield story not just the Fed.#30YYieldHits2007High
OKX Orbit
Long-term US borrowing costs just broke a 19-year ceiling.
The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, its highest since 2007. Last week’s $25B auction cleared at 5.216%, the highest 30-year auction yield since 2001.
This is bigger than the next Fed decision. The curve is bear-steepening, with shorter-dated yields relatively steadier while the long end sells off. That points to a repricing of long-term inflation, Treasury supply, real rates and the extra return investors demand to lock up money for three decades.
As of August 17, the 30-year real yield stood at 3.06%, its highest since 2008. That raises the hurdle for non-yielding assets and tightens long-term financial conditions even if the Fed leaves its policy rate unchanged.
The impact spreads across markets:
· Bonds: higher yields mean lower prices and greater duration risk
· Economy: mortgage rates and long-term corporate financing costs can stay elevated without another Fed hike
· Gold: $XAU and $XAUT have shown resilience despite the higher real-yield hurdle
· Crypto: BTC can face a tougher liquidity backdrop, while debt and the long-term fiscal outlook remain part of the market’s broader BTC narrative
The driver matters. A rise led by stronger growth and real yields can pressure gold and high-beta assets. A rise led by inflation, supply or fiscal risk can produce a different response, with bonds, gold and BTC reacting differently.
Does 5.3% mark a lasting shift in long-term borrowing costs, or a temporary repricing of inflation and fiscal risk?
#30YYieldHits2007High