Timo
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Today, AI-related tech stocks are all set to plunge because buyers feel that Anthropic's 65 billion ARR falls short of expectations; their previous forecast was 69-75 billion. It is estimated that hardware tech stocks will undergo another correction. Previously, the market's main focus was on the Capex growth expectations of cloud providers, but now it is definitely on the ARR growth of consumer-end companies like Anthropic and OpenAI.
I believe that the 65 billion figure is already quite high; Q2 was over 11.5 billion USD, and how much does Spcx have? Only 7.8 billion USD. The market always expects corporate growth to be linear, but in reality, it is volatile.
Elon Musk can basically succeed at anything, but he is always late. And the capital market, based on Elon’s characteristics, is willing to give TSLA and SpaceX extremely high premium valuations.
Shorting Elon Musk’s companies means only fighting against time. For example, Bill Gates’ fund once shorted Tesla and lost billions of dollars.
Is Tesla’s profit margin high? Very low. Does it currently have growth? It’s not reflected. Is the free cash flow good? No. Is the valuation high? Really high. What buyers are investing in is the narrative of future autonomous driving subscriptions plus robotics.
Sharing some recent thoughts on a few major stocks: Under the premise that the fundamentals are sound, if there is any news causing the stock to plunge sharply on the same day + the PE TTM is at a low level (compared to the Big Seven in US stocks), decisively buy in. The risk-reward ratio is very high, and the stock price tends to recover quickly.
For example, Apple (260) which plunged after a price hike, Google (320) which plunged due to AI talent departures, and Meta (520) which plunged due to a large increase in capital expenditure. I took the last two trading opportunities. The price recovered very quickly, basically rising more than 20% within one to two weeks.
There is no bubble in the US stock market; the S&P and Nasdaq are getting higher and higher.
Many people think there is a big bubble because:
1. The indices keep rising
2. Some sectors have increased many times over (semiconductors/storage)
But if you look at the earnings of Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Nvidia,
you will find that no matter what valuation method you use, the valuations of Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are not expensive now, and are even somewhat undervalued. Apple's and Nvidia's valuations are reasonably on the higher side. Tesla's valuation is indeed a bubble.
Whether you use PE or DCF, among the US giants, the ones truly in a bubble are probably only Tesla and SPCX.
On the day Google's earnings report came out, it plummeted to 320, which I bought at, and it has risen nearly 20% in just about a week. Even at the current price, it is still the cheapest among several giants.
There's really no need to focus only on storage; beyond storage, there are other high-probability opportunities. The simple questions about storage are over; now it's the difficult ones. Both trading and investing require finding simpler questions that suit oneself.
timo007
Copied some info about Google. Google's fundamentals are solid, still in the top tier with strong large model capabilities + rapid cloud business growth + steady ad cash flow.
Today's sharp drop is mainly due to market concerns over excessive capital expenditures + Q2 FCF turning negative, as well as yesterday's capital flight betting on the earnings report.
Ran away, the rest is up to you to profit.
timo007
The logic behind buying the dip in storage yesterday to bet on a rebound was basically that the short-term negative factors had been fully priced in, but indeed, I didn't expect that after the FOMC, it would first rally sharply and then plunge again at the close, which was truly unexpected.
In an unfamiliar market, I really don't dare to take large positions because it's basically catching a falling knife on the left side; just making some living expenses is enough.
Recently, I've seen many excellent traders in the crypto space get stuck with storage, so we really need to have respect and a learning attitude toward different markets, and avoid large positions when unfamiliar.
Whether it's meme coins or secondary tokens, the influencing factors are actually just a few; once you understand them, it's just a matter of placing your bets. The influencing factors for US stocks, especially individual stocks, are really numerous, and sometimes factors you never expected suddenly appear. When there are many variables, the direction becomes difficult, especially in the short term.
The logic behind buying the dip in storage yesterday to bet on a rebound was basically that the short-term negative factors had been fully priced in, but indeed, I didn't expect that after the FOMC, it would first rally sharply and then plunge again at the close, which was truly unexpected.
In an unfamiliar market, I really don't dare to take large positions because it's basically catching a falling knife on the left side; just making some living expenses is enough.
Recently, I've seen many excellent traders in the crypto space get stuck with storage, so we really need to have respect and a learning attitude toward different markets, and avoid large positions when unfamiliar.
Whether it's meme coins or secondary tokens, the influencing factors are actually just a few; once you understand them, it's just a matter of placing your bets. The influencing factors for US stocks, especially individual stocks, are really numerous, and sometimes factors you never expected suddenly appear. When there are many variables, the direction becomes difficult, especially in the short term.
The fundamentals haven't changed. For large companies that have plummeted due to some isolated factors, a sharp drop is a buying opportunity, and a short-term rebound can definitely be made.
Google's fundamentals haven't changed; it just has increased capital expenditures. Previously, Apple's fundamentals also didn't change; it just raised product prices and then plummeted, yet now it is the largest by market cap again.
timo007
Copied some info about Google. Google's fundamentals are solid, still in the top tier with strong large model capabilities + rapid cloud business growth + steady ad cash flow.
Today's sharp drop is mainly due to market concerns over excessive capital expenditures + Q2 FCF turning negative, as well as yesterday's capital flight betting on the earnings report.