$BTC $ETH $SOL Conclusion first We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30% Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back Let's all get rich together

$BTC 🚨 【Historical Iron Law Reappears: High Probability of BTC Closing Lower in August? Dual Resonance of Technicals and Cycles】 Reviewing Bitcoin's history, during typical bear markets/correction periods in 2015, 2018, and 2022, there was an unexceptional seasonal pattern of "closing positive in July with a rebound, then closing negative in August with a pullback." This July, BTC successfully closed positive; will history repeat in August? Combining with our previous market analysis, this logic is perfectly validated: Short-term technical resonance: After a brief oscillating rebound at the beginning of August, BTC has clearly entered a descending channel, showing a typical "one wave with three twists" retracement pattern. Cycle and liquidity suppression: After the oversold recovery in July, incremental funds were insufficient to follow up, coupled with tighter global market liquidity in summer, which easily triggers a phased decline in August. The conclusion is very clear: Combining historical monthly performance and the current channel structure, closing lower in August this year is a high-probability event. We recommend controlling your position size and following the trend; avoid blindly bottom-fishing! 📉🔍

$BTC $USDT USDT net decrease of nearly $4 billion over 60 days, it's too cold! According to CryptoQuant data, the 60-day market cap change of USDT has dropped to about -$3.6 billion, with the 30-day moving average of this indicator even lower at -$4.88 billion. In the past 11 days, nearly $870 million USDT has disappeared from circulation. This time it doesn't seem to be just funds switching from USDT to USDC, because USDC supply has also decreased by about 1.3% over the past 30 days, and the entire stablecoin market size has shrunk by about 0.6%. This indicates that at least some funds are indeed leaving the on-chain crypto ecosystem, redeeming into dollars in banks or flowing into other traditional financial assets. The on-chain cash pool in crypto is getting smaller, which means bottom-fishing funds, leverage collateral, and trading liquidity are all weakening. However, looking back historically, previous extreme contractions of USDT often occurred in the latter half of major market downturns. A similar situation happened at the end of 2022, after which Bitcoin completed a cycle bottom around $16,000. CryptoQuant's observation of historical data also shows that the most severe USDT contraction phases tend to be closer to the exhaustion of selling pressure rather than the beginning of it. So seeing USDT shrink now definitely isn't a short-term positive, but it might tell us another thing: the market has already gone through a considerable period of deleveraging and capital withdrawal.

$BTC Data shows: The proportion of short-term Bitcoin holders continues to decline, and the market may be approaching the end of the bear market The proportion of BTC supply held has significantly decreased Among them, those holding for less than 1 day account for 1.2% 1 day to 1 week accounts for 2% 1 week to 1 month accounts for 5.6% 1 to 3 months accounts for 6.7% 3 to 6 months accounts for 8.1%. From what I see analysts say, this trend appears at the end of every bear market

$OKB Recently $OKB has been performing really well, today it directly surged to 105u OKX has also been very active lately, constantly working hard on its layout, everyone can see it Just like Lao Xu said, xStocks is already a great start, but it’s far from the end, everyone is looking forward to X-RWA, the future holds unlimited possibilities. Everyone can prepare some OKB to get ready for the Dogecoin surge

$ETH ETH Market Analysis for Today Yesterday, we looked for a short-term pullback. Ethereum once surged to 1923, showing stronger momentum than Bitcoin, briefly breaking through the previous consolidation range. Last night, CPI volatility increased, with a low near 1870 on the pullback. The 1850 support held firmly, showing strong resilience. This round of short-term pullback is basically complete, with the price retreating back to around 1895. The 1850 support below is solid and hard to break easily. Spot traders can consider gradually building positions near 1850. On the upside, the key resistance to watch is 1938. Only by holding above this level can upward space open up. In terms of timeframes, the 90-minute cycle has completed, and the focus now shifts to the 3-4 hour level. These two cycles will determine whether the daily rebound can truly take off.

$CRCL Is $CRCL a temporary rebound or a trend reversal? After the $CRCL launch alert on August 5, the price surged as expected to $73, just one step away from the first target of $84. Facing the current trend, will it continue upward without turning back, or is this just a temporary rebound? Key bullish drivers: - Approval in July to establish Circle National Trust, officially entering federal regulation - Impressive Q2 operational data and upward revision of future guidance - Biggest catalyst: Arc mainnet scheduled to officially launch on September 16 Bearish factors to watch out for: - Volume-price divergence: Recently, the stock price rebound is obvious, but the core fundamentals (USDC supply) have not increased; in fact, it has slightly declined in the past few days. - Market pressure: The overall crypto market has not yet bottomed; if the market continues to decline, USDC demand is unlikely to surge. Summary and trading strategy: Currently, the probability of a rebound is relatively higher (Arc is a short-term catalyst, but USDC supply is the core determinant of performance). In terms of operations, pay attention to the volume-price coordination when the rebound reaches the neckline level (if calculated by the ending wedge, the theoretical high is near $87): - If volume breaks out positively after reaching the neckline, the probability of reversal increases, and the strategy can be adjusted accordingly; - If volume shrinks, then take profits in batches as originally planned. The above is only personal trading thoughts and does not constitute any investment advice! #CRCL #Circle #USDC

$BTC Why is the BTC market so quiet? BTC held for less than 3 months is a relatively neutral chip among all STHs; it’s neither very active nor very firm. Especially in the late bear market, the participation of this type of chip gradually decreases, so the slope of the cost curve slowly flattens from initially steep. During a rebound, when the price returns near the cost, it also triggers more selling pressure. Therefore, it is also a key resistance level. For example, right now, this line is around $67,900; since BTC’s rebound near 6/20, it has been suppressed below this level for nearly 2 months. And the current slope of the curve is almost zero (turnover is decreasing). Interestingly, similar situations appeared at the end of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. From August to November 2018, BTC price was continuously suppressed by < 3m-RP for 3 months; From August to November 2022, also 3 months... Afterwards, the 2018 BCH hash war and the 2022 FTX crash caused prices to break down instantly, triggering large fluctuations. Both events occurred at the end of the bear market. This shows that continuous suppression by < 3m-RP essentially represents a form of structural fragility. Any external force can break this weak equilibrium. Either up or down. And we are currently in this state of “risk accumulation but lacking a trigger,” enduring this struggle...

$SPCX SPCX Trend Analysis SPCX rose from 105 to 146: a reversal, or just valuation recovery after unlocking? Here’s my judgment first: The area around 105 has most likely formed a phase bottom, but 146-160 is not a comfortable zone to chase gains; buying here is not cheap but a breakout. #OKX In the previous round, SPCX fell from above 200 to around 105, mainly due to overvaluation, earnings expectations being overdrawn, and unlocking pressure releasing simultaneously. Simply put, this was a valuation and chip sell-off, not a performance sell-off. After stopping the decline at 105, the stock price consecutively reclaimed 120, 130, and 140, with lows starting to rise, indicating the most pessimistic phase has passed, and the market’s pricing has begun to re-incorporate expectations for Starlink, AI, and a high-growth platform. But rising from 105 to 146 only confirms a strong recovery; it does not confirm the end of the downtrend. The 150 to 160 range is a previous trapped position and a dense trading zone, also the toughest hurdle in this rebound. I’m currently watching four levels: $130, the lifeline of the rebound structure $140, the short-term strength/weakness boundary $160, the trend confirmation level $180, the mid-term reversal confirmation level If SPCX can consolidate with low volume between $140 and $150, then break out with volume above $160, the next target could be $175 to $180. If it shows volume but can’t rise between $150 and $160, then falls back below $135 to $140, this rally looks more like valuation recovery, not a new main uptrend. So my thinking is clear: Below $160, I view it as recovery; holding above $160, then we start discussing reversal; breaking through and holding $180, then it’s qualified to look again above $200. Buying at $105 is about odds; buying at $148 is about trend—two completely different trades. This is just a personal trade review and does not constitute investment advice.

$BTC Yesterday's CPI met expectations It's considered good news but the market didn't rally Once the US stock market opened in the evening, Bitcoin was hammered down People are almost out of energy to curse But this also indicates we're entering the late stage of the bear market People are cursing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even the exchanges Cursing Zhao Changpeng and his wife Everyone is exhausted from cursing The group chat is also dead silent, the bear market is ending After Bitcoin finished collecting money today The price still held above the Fibonacci 618 level It’s hovering around this support Today's closing price is about the same as yesterday's Currently, as long as this support isn't broken, shorting is really not advisable Even if it breaks, the downside space is limited Strong support is around 61200 below Ethereum is similar with strong support around 1810 below But for now, as long as the support holds, shorting is not recommended It might still go up with some hesitation Currently, we still need to watch the US stock market to lead Bitcoin Nasdaq futures have currently broken the trendline but are facing resistance at the 30000 round number The probability of the US stock market breaking upwards further is relatively high

$SPCX Elon Musk said: Next month, AI revenue will surpass SpaceX's main business Musk launched another satellite, this time at an internal SpaceX employee meeting. The gist of his original words: AI business revenue will probably exceed the total of all other SpaceX income by September this year, and in 5 years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value. A rocket company whose future valuation almost entirely depends on AI? But the market really bought it; SpaceX surged over 9% last night. On the US stock market side, storage chips collectively exploded, SK Hynix rose 9%, SanDisk rose 5.76%, Micron nearly 5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.49%, Nvidia rose over 3%. Nasdaq +0.54%, S&P slightly up, Dow slightly down. The current US stock market script is: as long as it involves AI, people rush in, no matter if the main business is rockets or memory chips. Musk says 99%, how much do you believe?