I believe the current market is trading on the expectation of the "Fed backing down," but the abnormal signals from long-term U.S. Treasury bonds indicate that risks are far from over. Bitcoin, Ethereum, U.S. stocks, and Korean stocks are essentially grasshoppers on the same rope. Let's first look at the macro trend. Goldman Sachs' report on August 17 pointed out that the probability of a rate hike in September is extremely low. The core reasons are July's retail sales month-on-month decline of 0.6%, CPI dropping to 3.4%, PPI falling to 4.7%, and non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreasing by 23,000. These four data sets collectively point to a reduced need for tightening. However, there is huge market divergence. The futures market shows about a 74% probability of maintaining rates in September, and a Reuters survey indicates 90% of economists share this view; yet the 30-year Treasury yield has surged to the highest level since 2007 (intraday reaching 5.326%), with short-term trading turning dovish while the long end prices in inflation and fiscal deficits. Now, looking at the specific performance of each asset. Bitcoin has been anchored between $62,000 and $66,000 since early July, around $64,150 on August 18. ETF funds flowed back when rate hike expectations cooled, but last week saw a net outflow of about $390 million, with its movement completely driven by Fed expectations. Ethereum is currently around $1,890, performing slightly better than Bitcoin. The staking rate hit a record high (about 34.4%, locking over 40 million coins), Morgan Stanley has submitted a spot ETF application, and the institutional narrative is more solid, but its essence is still driven by liquidity expectations. The U.S. stock S&P 500 remains near historical highs, UBS maintains a bullish stance, and AI infrastructure earnings are strong (Ing

I believe the 30-year US Treasury yield hitting a new high since 2007 is definitely a "headwind" in the short term for BTC, ETH, and gold, so don't rush to bottom-fish. Just yesterday, the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.32%, which is a very alarming figure. What does this mean? It means that "risk-free" US dollar assets are now extremely attractive, directly draining liquidity from the market. I was watching the market last week, and whenever the Treasury yield rose, gold and Bitcoin immediately plunged, with an absurdly high correlation. Especially Ethereum, as a higher-risk asset, faces even greater valuation pressure than Bitcoin in this high-interest-rate environment. Because capital has an opportunity cost—when you can earn a guaranteed 5% by buying US Treasuries, who would want to hold non-interest-bearing gold or highly volatile coins? This is why these asset classes have been fluctuating and consolidating recently, as the macroeconomic threat looms overhead. For ordinary people like us, the strategy now is not to bet on a rebound of Bitcoin or Ethereum but to learn to "read the signals." That "signal" is the US Treasury yield; only when it starts a downward trend is it a signal for us to reallocate heavily into these assets. Until then, no matter how tempting their dips are, we must hold back because in a high-interest-rate era, cash is king.

I believe SanDisk's current market value is severely overestimated, with the core risk lying in the questionable credibility of the AI storage narrative, compounded by controversies over technical integrity that are shaking market confidence. Although the company disclosed a $9.39 billion long-term agreement, the floating pricing clause in the agreement means revenue still follows market prices and does not truly lock in profits. What makes me even more cautious is that its flagship HBF technology was accused during the investor day of deliberately undervaluing competing HBM parameters and concealing write endurance defects; this selective comparison has sparked widespread skepticism in the tech community. From the financial data, an 84.6% gross margin is unprecedented in the storage industry, entirely driven by a 1298% year-over-year surge in data center business. Once Samsung and SK Hynix release new capacity, causing a supply-demand reversal, the gross margin retracement will be extremely severe. Compared to peers like Micron with a 15x PE, SanDisk's 32x forward PE premium is too high, and the DCF model even suggests a target price of only $372. I once bought storage stocks at the 2025 peak and personally experienced the halving losses brought by the cycle reversal. Now seeing SanDisk package its valuation as a "meal ticket for the next five years" makes me even more cautious—the real moat is the technological barrier, not just a contract. I recommend closely watching whether bit shipment volume in 2027 can replace price hikes as the main growth driver, and whether HBF technology can truly break HBM's monopoly after commercialization. Don't be swayed by short-term narratives; the lessons from cyclical stocks are always worth remembering. #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证

I believe that the main capital flow in the crypto market is very likely to rotate from BTC to assets like ETH, rather than just waiting passively during BTC's low volatility. The most direct basis for this judgment is where the money is flowing. Look at the data from July: the net inflow ratio of ETH spot ETFs is actually 9.4 times that of BTC. This indicates that institutions' appetite has changed; they are no longer only focused on Bitcoin, the "old bread." Although BTC looks lifeless with trading volume shrinking sharply, my trader friends have been talking about ETH's catch-up rally logic recently, and the sentiment is clearly more active. However, I haven't completely cleared my BTC position, since UBS was still increasing its bullish IBIT options in Q2. This kind of "openly repairing the plank road while secretly crossing the Wei River" operation by big institutions shows they are still laying traps. So my current strategy is: allocate 60% of my short-term positions to ETH to seek excess returns. The remaining 40% BTC base position remains untouched as defense, waiting for the next breakout signal. For ordinary players, now is definitely not the time to lose patience during the sideways consolidation of BTC and ETH. Watching the capital flow to make switches might be much smarter than stubbornly holding onto one asset without moving. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖

I think the current rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum is somewhat "illusory" because institutions are retreating, and it's actually retail investors playing with leverage. Look at the data: from August 3rd to 7th that week, ETFs were indeed strong, with a net inflow of $1.1 billion. But in the week from the 10th to the 14th, the trend immediately reversed, and BTC ETF turned back to a net outflow. What does this indicate? It means the smart "big money" hasn't continued to enter and catch the falling market. Meanwhile, I see that futures open interest has actually risen back above 760,000 contracts. The funding rate is still positive, which means everyone is borrowing money to buy the rally, and leveraged longs are heating up. This kind of "weak spot, strong derivatives" divergence is actually quite dangerous. It reminds me of last year when I did the same—when spot was stagnant, I added leverage to bet on a rebound. As a result, once ETF inflows stopped, and prices dipped slightly, my long positions were liquidated in a chain reaction. The current situation is that if ETFs continue to bleed out, these high leverages will be lambs to the slaughter. Only when spot funds come back to support will this wave of leverage be safe. So don't just look at the red and green on the charts; watching ETF flows is the key to survival. #ETF买盘反转，BTC杠杆仓位回升