Keep buying the dip! $BTC $ETH $SNDK #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注

No position: · Do not chase this level, wait for a pullback to 64,200-64,500 and stabilize before considering · Or wait for the daily close to confirm holding above 65,000, then follow on the right side · Do not act on any middle positions 65,000 is the six-week "ceiling"; breaking through is a good thing, but don't change your perspective just because of a rise. The larger cycle is still bearish, treat it as a rebound first, not a reversal. $BTC $ETH $OKB #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

SK Hynix took a hit! Damn $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

Core Risk Warnings 1. The FOMC minutes are today's biggest variable: the 9:3 voting split has exposed internal Fed divisions, and the minutes' hawkish or dovish tone will reprice future monetary policy. 2. Severe multi-cycle signal divergence: daily low-level divergence vs. weekly and monthly bearish alignment; short-term rebound does not change the long-term downward structure. 3. ETF continuous outflows suppress rebound space: net outflow of $168 million in the past 7 days, institutional buying has not yet substantially returned. 4. 64,500 is already a "hardened ceiling": this level has been resisted multiple times; only a volume-backed breakout can open upward space. 5. Volatility compressed to the extreme: trading volume shrunk to recent lows; the longer the sideways consolidation, the stronger the breakout. 6. Expectations for the White House crypto summit should not be too high: the market is not expecting "earth-shattering good news," but rather whether policy attitudes remain open $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？

ETF outflows suppress rebound, but selling pressure is nearly exhausted ETF—Small inflow after largest outflow in six weeks Last week (August 10-14), the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $389.7 million, marking the largest weekly outflow in six weeks. On August 17, it turned to a slight inflow of about $26.1 million. Over the past 7 days, ETFs still had a net outflow of approximately $167.9 million, indicating institutional buying has not substantially returned. Selling pressure is waning, but buying has yet to return The Fear & Greed Index recovered from 27 last week to 38-41, showing marginal improvement in sentiment but not yet turning greedy. Glassnode data shows long-term holders' supply has reached 16.35 million BTC, increasing by 1.38 million in the past 90 days, and has remained in a low-risk zone for 78 consecutive days. The ETH/BTC trading volume ratio has dropped below 0.8. Key judgment: Strategy continues to reduce holdings, miners are selling, and ETFs have consecutive net outflows—three selling pressures coexist, but the price remains above 63,000, indicating those who wanted to sell have mostly done so. The inability of bearish factors to push prices down is itself a signal worth noting. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注

Technical structure: extremely compressed, severe multi-cycle signal tearing Daily level — moving averages in bearish alignment, low-level divergence signals emerging BTC has maintained a defensive stance for two consecutive weeks, Glassnode market compass rates 30/100, valuation at cycle low 16/100, capital flow only 30. Daily EMA still shows bearish alignment, death cross risk faintly visible. Daily RSI around 52.5 neutral, MACD still negative at -34.3. Stochastic indicator has entered deep oversold territory; recent price weakness has not been accompanied by an equivalent degree of momentum deterioration, this divergence may indicate that selling pressure is weakening. Daily price has been in a continuous descending channel since the June high, a symmetrical triangle is converging, price oscillating near the lower boundary of the channel. But weekly MACD reading -5,570 and monthly is a strong sell signal, the large cycle bearish structure remains solid. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

Macro perspective: The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has sharply dropped, becoming the biggest catalyst for the rebound The core driving force behind this round of rebound comes from the significant improvement in macro interest rate expectations: · The probability of maintaining the rate in September has risen to 69%: CME FedWatch shows that the market pricing for the Fed to hold steady in September has risen to 69%. A few weeks ago, the market still expected two more rate hikes before the end of 2026, and a September hike was once considered a high-probability event. · Four macro data points have weakened consecutively: July retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month (expected +0.1%); CPI year-on-year dropped to 3.4%; PPI year-on-year fell to 4.7%; July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000. · The 2-year US Treasury yield dropped about 20 basis points: It has been declining continuously since July 23, directly easing valuation pressure on risk assets. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨

Dimension Current Status Current Price Approximately $64,300 - 64,400 24h Change +2.25% ~ +2.29% Intraday Range $62,714 - 64,610 Liquidation Data Over $216 million liquidated in 24h, shorts account for about 82.8% Market Sentiment Fear and Greed Index 41 (Fear), sharply up from 31 yesterday $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

Technical structure: oversold recovery rebound, bearish structure not reversed Daily level — still in bearish structure, moving averages clearly suppressing BTC has been below the 50-day moving average for four consecutive days, pressured below the 200-week moving average. Daily MACD reading is -183 (signal line -101, histogram -82), still in negative territory. Daily CMF is -0.05, slightly below zero. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？

Bitcoin has strongly rebounded under the macro boost of a sharp drop in Fed rate hike expectations, with shorts facing massive short squeezes (24h liquidations of 216 million, shorts accounting for 82.8%). However, the daily MACD remains negative and the ADX is only 11.65, so it is currently more appropriate to view this as a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal. $64,600 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears—breaking above it could challenge $65,300-$67,300; resistance may lead to a pullback to $64,000-$63,150 to confirm support. The US-Iran situation and the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting are the two biggest upcoming uncertainties. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注