WëЪ山大王

WëЪ山大王

BTC 数字黄金|万物皆周期|OKB Holder|关注 Crypto|Al|美股|宏观趋势。 长期主义×价值发现×周期思维

2KFollowing
2.2Kfollowers

Feed

WëЪ山大王
WëЪ山大王
September 2 BTC - ETH Market Analysis
Recently, macro data hasn't been released yet, and no one wants to make a move lightly, so the market is hovering at a high level with bulls and bears battling each other. It has already risen quite a bit earlier, now it needs to repeatedly shake out profit-taking positions while checking if the support below is solid. First, let's talk about $BTC. Today, the key strength/weakness dividing line is at 78000. If it can close steadily above 78000, it means the rebound still has some strength, and we can look upwards towards 79250, 81000, and around 82500, considering short positions at those levels. If it can't break through or hold above 78000 all day, it means the bulls are losing strength, and it will likely probe lower. Then don't rush; wait for it to drop to around 76650, 75600, or 74300 before considering low-level long positions. The same logic applies to ETH, with today's key level at 2440. Closing above 2440 means bulls regain control, and we can look at 2485, 2540, and 2575, considering shorting on rallies at those points. If it remains stuck below 2440, bears are still dominant, and the market may continue downward. Then watch the levels at 2385, 2325, and 2275, and consider low-level longs when prices hit those points. Right now, it's just a back-and-forth shakeout within a range; don't chase rallies or sell into dips in this volatile zone. #非农前数据分化,9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量,币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员:戴尔业绩超预期,博通雪花接棒
WëЪ山大王
WëЪ山大王
#非农前数据分化,9月加息预期升温 Oh my, this time they might really raise interest rates. In August, the US manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6, still above 50, indicating factories are not contracting. But new orders have clearly slowed, and raw material prices remain high. Tariffs, supply chains, plus the Middle East situation pushing up costs, bosses say they want to expand production, but are already hesitating. Hiring hasn’t collapsed either; July job openings were 7.27 million, slightly below expectations but a slight rebound from June. This means companies are still hiring, just not as urgently as before. July nonfarm payrolls increased by only 23,000, with the previous two months revised down. Employment is cooling off, not collapsing. The hardest part now is that the economy isn’t completely broken, and inflationary pressure hasn’t eased. Fed Chair Waller leans hawkish, with September rate hike odds pushed above 60%, and the two-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.36%. These data alone aren’t enough for the Fed to act immediately; the real decision will be Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. If the data is weak, rate hike expectations might be cooled off. If strong, the September hike will be more certain. The direction still depends on interest rates; the pace will be decided after the nonfarm data comes out.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ $BTC $ETH

Snapshot at Sep 02, 2026, 14:57

BTCUSDTperpetual100xSellOpen position
Trade
WëЪ山大王
WëЪ山大王
Is $FIL about to revive? The price rebounded from about $0.6 in August and has recently risen again.😱 Let's first figure out what this thing really is. You can think of it as a "worldwide shared cloud storage": some people provide hard drives to store files, others pay to rent space. FIL is the token used in this cloud storage—for payments, collateral, and rewards. Before, everyone compared: whether the hard drives were big enough and the data stored was enough. Now the official stance has changed: it depends on whether people actually pay monthly. The warehouses are already large; what's missing are tenants. When tenants come and money flows on-chain, this coin gains more confidence. Just stacking empty warehouses with no rent paid makes it hard for the price to improve long-term. So what does buying $FIL mean? It’s a bet on whether this decentralized cloud storage can transform from an "experimental project" into a "business that collects rent." If it succeeds, then it looks like a revival. If not, it remains a cheap but empty warehouse. A two-day price increase doesn’t equal revival. What really matters is whether there are continuous paying users coming in afterwards.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ #非农前数据分化,9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量,币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员:戴尔业绩超预期,博通雪花接棒

Snapshot at Sep 02, 2026, 13:48

FILUSDTperpetual50xSellOpen position
Trade
WëЪ山大王
WëЪ山大王
$UNI is really about to take off! It's climbing from over 5U to 6U! Many people ask: Didn't they say there was good news a while ago? Why is it only rising now? The main reason is that Uniswap is no longer just a platform for swapping tokens; it has started using part of the trading fees to buy UNI and then directly burn it. The fewer tokens burned, the more valuable the remaining ones become. This method was decided at the end of last year, but at first, the amount burned was small, so no one paid much attention. The real change came with Robinhood's new chain. Many people are buying and selling stock tokens and real asset tokens there, and the trading volume has increased nearly tenfold in a month. Most of these trades go through Uniswap, so the fees have increased, and the amount of UNI burned has also increased. The more people use it, the faster the tokens are burned, and this cycle has only recently truly started. Additionally, people have started to look favorably again at the established decentralized finance projects. With a technical breakthrough happening at the same time, money has flowed in. So it's not that good news suddenly increased, but that previously it was just talk; now the fees are really burning tokens, the accounts match up, and the price follows. #就业数据密集公布,沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡,与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员:博通与戴尔接棒,AI回报再受检验 ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Snapshot at Sep 02, 2026, 05:27

UNIUSDTperpetual50xSellOpen position
Trade
WëЪ山大王
WëЪ山大王
September 1 BTC - ETH Market Analysis
Once September arrives, this market cycle reaches a critical point. Looking back at August, the market bottomed out and consolidated for nearly two months before finally breaking through the macro policy suppression, resulting in a fairly decent rebound. This also indicates that the previous bottom positioning was correct. Now the market is in a high-level consolidation phase, with everyone's attention focused on the non-farm payroll data to be released on September 4. This data is very important and will directly impact the monetary policy on September 17. Although recent rate hike expectations have fluctuated, overall, the likelihood of a rate cut or maintaining the current rate is still greater. As long as the final tightening is not beyond expectations, market liquidity expectations will not be too negative, and there is a better chance for the market to enter a second acceleration phase. So the current strategy remains the same: before the data release, buying on dips is safer than chasing highs. On the BTC side, initial positions have been established in the 77,000 to 76,000 support range. If there is an extreme spike washout, consider adding positions between 75,000 and 73,000. As for Ethereum, positions suggested around 2,400 previously have already gained some profit. Considering the potential for large fluctuations around the data release, it is recommended to partially take profits near 2,400 or set a breakeven stop loss to lock in profits and control drawdowns. If the market drops sharply, the 2,350 to 2,280 range can be considered a secondary entry point. Volatility will definitely increase before the data release. It is still best to stick to discipline, avoid chasing highs or panic selling, manage positions well, and prepare for the market movement in the latter part of September.​​​​
WëЪ山大王
WëЪ山大王
Is something big coming? $BTC is currently hovering around 78800, unable to go up or down. Last Friday it surged to 81310 in one go, but was immediately pushed back by that somewhat hawkish speech from Walsh. Over the weekend to Monday, it barely touched around 79350 and got stuck, the rebound was almost nonexistent. After the sharp rise, the long positions haven't been fully cleared and are still pressing down. ETF inflows have stopped after nine consecutive days, and the expectation of a rate hike in September has regained the upper hand; money just isn't willing to chase higher. With this kind of market, if the upcoming data gets hotter, it could crash again in a minute. Since the overall trend is still bullish, buying the dip is more reasonable. #就业数据密集公布,沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡,与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员:博通与戴尔接棒,AI回报再受检验

Snapshot at Sep 01, 2026, 14:25

BTCUSDTperpetual100xBuyOpen position
Trade
WëЪ山大王
WëЪ山大王
#就业数据密集公布,沃什政策立场受检验 Is a rate hike really coming? 🤔️ This week, the U.S. will successively release JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payrolls. The labor market momentum will be the main pricing basis for September policy expectations. Wall Street currently estimates August nonfarm payrolls to be between 50,000 and 80,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. If the numbers soften again, the "there's more work to do" stance from Walsh will be immediately contradicted, rate hike expectations will retract, and risk assets will have room to breathe. If the numbers are strong, the hawks will directly block both inflation and employment fronts. $BTC testing 76,000 again wouldn't be a fantasy. #BTC高位震荡,与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员:博通与戴尔接棒,AI回报再受检验

Snapshot at Sep 01, 2026, 06:22

BTCUSDTperpetual100xSellOpen position
Trade
WëЪ山大王
WëЪ山大王
August 31 BTC - ETH Market Analysis
$BTC is still overall bullish, but the momentum has shifted from a rapid surge upward to a period of consolidation at a high level. At this time, it's best not to chase the highs; wait for a suitable entry point before taking action. Looking at BTC on the weekly chart, the previous candle was a strong bullish one, but last week closed as a doji, indicating that bulls are still present but the upward push is hesitating. The mid-term upward structure remains intact, but the short-term shows signs of stalling. So don't rush to chase; patiently wait for a pullback before entering for a safer position. On the daily chart, after the rally, the market is consolidating at a high level with more upper and lower shadows, showing repeated testing between bulls and bears at the top. When going long, try to position yourself early at support levels; avoid chasing during the middle of consolidation. First support: 77000 / 76500, where you can establish an initial position. Second support: 75500 / 75000, consider adding if it continues to dip. Resistance above: 79000, 81000, 83000; these levels are likely to face resistance until a clear breakout occurs. Next, looking at ETH, the approach is similar to Bitcoin: also consolidating at a high level, not advisable to chase highs, prioritize waiting for support. Initial long position: 2400 / 2380; if broken, consider adding at 2300 / 2250. Resistance above: 2460, 2560, 2660; be cautious at these levels, observe if it can hold before deciding to add more. Overall, the trend remains intact, but in the short term, it has entered a phase of waiting for the right position. #就业数据密集公布,沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡,与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员:博通与戴
WëЪ山大王
WëЪ山大王
Is the raging bull market really just around the corner? I think this is not the start of a bull market, but the middle of a bear market with a slight rebound upward. Many people bought in at over 70,000, thinking they caught the lowest point. Actually, they didn't. That was just a rebound after falling halfway, not a true bottom. Many big influencers online are already shouting that the bull market has arrived. The louder they shout now, the more it shows that people are not truly afraid yet; it feels more like a rebound, not the start of a new big rally. Money hasn't really come back on a large scale, and people's sentiment hasn't cooled to the extreme. Looking at the US stock market and gold, $BTC now looks more like a rebound within a bear market, not a new bull market. If weak, it will probably rebound to around 84,000 and then turn down. If stronger, it might push up to around 94,000 at most. After the rebound, there will be a harsher drop, possibly down to 30,000 to 40,000. Simply put: the current rise is a rebound; there may still be a big drop afterward. Don't mistake this wave of increase as the arrival of a bull market.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ #就业数据密集公布,沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡,与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员:博通与戴尔接棒,AI回报再受检验

Snapshot at Aug 31, 2026, 15:26

BTCUSDTperpetual100xBuyOpen position
Trade
WëЪ山大王
WëЪ山大王
Is Wang Duanniao really going to win big this time on $OKB? In August 2025, OKX will burn about 65.26 million OKB tokens in one go, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million. The number of tokens is reduced, and the reduction is fixed, instantly maximizing scarcity, with the figure deliberately aligned to Bitcoin's 21 million. An even bigger change is: it is no longer just a platform token within the exchange. On the X Layer, transfers, DeFi activities, and RWA all require paying fees with OKB. OKX has a large user base; as users move from the exchange to the blockchain, they will genuinely consume this token. Staking, interactions, and project onboarding will all increase demand. Previously, profits from the platform were used for buybacks; now it depends on whether people are truly using it on-chain. Ultimately, it comes down to three things: whether serious projects are running on the X Layer, whether real money is being invested, and whether regulations suddenly tighten. If the ecosystem really heats up, the price will have solid support. If it's still just self-hype and concept speculation with no real use, even if the total supply is locked at 21 million, it will only look good on paper.

Snapshot at Aug 31, 2026, 01:41

OKBUSDTperpetual20xSellOpen position
Trade