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The BIP-110 fork stalled 8 hours after launch due to insufficient hash power support, exposing the core conflict between Bitcoin's underlying governance struggles and transaction fee preferences.
The forked chain produced only 2 blocks before stalling, with no substantial hash power shift from the mainnet, indicating that the core stake held by large holders and mainnet miners remained intact. The event's impact on $BTC risk appetite mainly manifested in the stabilization of transaction fee expectations and the retracement of risk-off leveraged positions.
The key drivers of current stake changes are, in order, mainnet hash power stability, block space fee rate volatility, and the repricing of derivatives leverage positions. Due to the forked chain's lack of sufficient hash power backing, the risk premium in spot and derivatives markets quickly declined, with short-term funds re-concentrating in mainnet spot.
The trigger for an upward scenario is the mainnet hash power maintaining a high level and transaction fees remaining stable; the market would interpret this stall as a validation of the underlying protocol's defensive capability. In this case, monitoring large address holdings is necessary; if no large-scale on-chain sell-off occurs, a rebound in risk appetite will support continued accumulation of spot positions.
The failure signal for this upward scenario is an abnormal surge in unconfirmed mainnet transactions pushing fees higher, thereby squeezing liquidity.
The trigger for a downward scenario is ecological divergence causing further miner group fragmentation, with increased on-chain friction costs suppressing new capital inflows. If derivatives open interest rapidly falls from highs accompanied by liquidations, the market will shift to emotional volatility and correction.
A sign of scenario failure is a sudden, unanticipated loss of mainnet hash power or the community reaching a highly controversial consensus on rule changes, prompting risk-off funds to flow from spot to derivatives hedging.
The most important variables to watch over the next 7 days are the direction of mainnet hash power difficulty adjustment, changes in average on-chain transaction fees, and convergence of derivatives funding rates.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克 #Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大 #伯克希尔结束净卖出，重启大额配置The batch of coins from 2013, the only ones still breathing now are really just $DOGE and $LTC. More than a decade has passed, and you probably haven't even heard of those names from the same period—Namecoin, Peercoin, Feathercoin—their graves are overgrown with three-meter-high grass. These two survived not because of superior technology, but because of sheer resilience.
Let's start with LTC. Back then, it was positioned as "Bitcoin silver," with code almost copied from BTC, just changing the block time and algorithm, and that was it. Such a "clone" would be heavily criticized today, but in 2013, the market accepted it—simple, familiar, no surprises. More importantly, it caught the early Coinbase ride and became a perennial channel for fiat deposits. Many old retail investors' first crypto trade was LTC, so the inertia is huge. It survives today because it's "boring enough"—it hasn't undergone any earth-shattering upgrades nor had any epic vulnerabilities; it just lingers on, which ironically made it a standard on exchanges.
DOGE is even more absurd. It started as a joke; even the founder treated it as a parody project, but the community turned it into a cultural symbol. The meme culture, tipping culture, and Reddit rewards of 2013 all piled onto DOGE. Later, Elon Musk's repeated endorsements directly turned this meme coin into a mainstream asset. It has no technical moat, and even the founder is gone, but the community consensus is ridiculously strong. DOGE survives because of "anti-seriousness"—in a space where everyone talks about technical narratives and financial narratives, it focuses on emotions, jokes, and "we're just not serious," which ironically attracted the largest and most loyal group of retail investors.
So, is the "survivor" status a halo or a curse? It depends.
For LTC, it's more like a curse. It is indeed alive but increasingly marginalized. No spot in ETFs, no role in DeFi, and no Layer 2 narrative. When the market talks, it’s always described politely as "veteran" and "stable," but in reality, the funds have long moved to SOL and ETH. Its survivor status means it's trapped in the 2013 paradigm, watching wave after wave of new technology pass by.
DOGE is different; its curse and halo are intertwined. The halo is that it is the most mainstream IP in the entire crypto world, with retail recognition possibly even higher than ETH; the curse is that it can never shake off the original sin of "living by hype." When Musk is silent, DOGE’s price is like a kite with a broken string. It has no ecosystem, no practical use case, relying entirely on sentiment to survive. This survivor status makes it a paradise for speculators and a nightmare for value investors.
In the end, among the graveyard of coins from 2013, DOGE and LTC climbed out not because they did something right, but because each hit on a completely different survival path: LTC relies on "boring equals safe," DOGE relies on "absurdity equals power." But in this industry, living too long is sometimes not a badge of honor but a reminder—you might still be standing on the shore watching when the next wave comes.Institutions are quietly outgrowing the retail-driven crypto narrative, and the data confirms it. Wintermute recently reported that institutions now account for 72% of its spot OTC flow, up from 59% a year ago. That's a meaningful shift in who's actually setting price on large trades.
This week adds more evidence. MARA pledged 18,750 $BTC, worth roughly $1.2 billion, as collateral for $600 million in financing, rather than selling. That's a balance-sheet decision, not a trading one, and it signals confidence in holding through volatility instead of realizing gains. Meanwhile, weekly ETF inflows hit $844 million for $BTC and $244 million for $ETH, the strongest ETH inflow week since April.
Liquidity is also consolidating in derivatives. $HYPE's Hyperliquid open interest has climbed to roughly $10.7 billion, well ahead of competing perpetual DEXs, showing traders are concentrating activity rather than spreading it across venues. That's efficient for liquidity, but it also means shocks could hit harder if sentiment turns.
The overhang is regulatory. The Crypto Clarity Act's delay to September keeps assets like $XRP, $ONDO, and $LINK sensitive to policy risk, even as $BTC and $ETH absorb inflows regardless. $SOL, $AVAX, $SUI, and $HYPE remain more insulated, since their momentum is tied to usage and derivatives activity rather than pending legislation.
Watch whether ETF inflows stay strong through the CPI print, and whether OTC concentration keeps building or reverses.
Do you think institutional dominance in OTC flow makes this market more stable, or just quieter before the next move?[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Don't start shouting "the trend is changing, the sky is falling" every time there's a dip, as if the Egyptian pyramids are about to collapse. BTC just touched 65200, then dropped back to 64300—so what? Did the whales run away?
Pharaoh thinks with his toes and tells you: don't panic, I've seen this play eight hundred times.
To put it simply, this is the classic "good news fully priced in, better to run first" scenario, combined with the traditional "CPI eve, usual scare tactics" performance.
Think about it, BTC charged from 62000 to 65000 like it had Red Bull, a sprint of over 3000 dollars in one go. This isn't running, it's a 100-meter dash! When it hit 65000, look at that, all the "brotherhood" trapped in losses from previous months are staring eagerly, waiting to break even and get out. Retail investors are thinking: "Finally breaking even, better run quickly, or else I'll be the loser again!"
Plus, with the big CPI announcement tomorrow, who isn't scared? Everyone is hiding their money like a turtle withdrawing into its shell. Who dares to go all in before the data comes out? Getting hit a bit is totally normal.
Pharaoh will highlight three key points, listen carefully:
1. US stocks and gold are rising, but BTC is just lying flat here. What does that mean? It means the foreigners aren't interested in FOMO in the crypto space right now; funds are flowing out.
2. Market sentiment is still crouching in the "fear" corner. A real bull market vibe is "greedy to the point of insomnia," but now everyone is "fearful to the point of insomnia," totally different.
3. The CPI sword is hanging overhead. If the data is high, rate hike expectations will resurrect again. Who dares to bet on direction now? That's not bravery, that's martyrdom.
Wait for the pullback to stabilize, the golden pit to solidify its bottom, then go in properly! $BTC $ETH $BICO #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ I really thought $ETH was different this time
Holding at 1900 for so long
I thought this was truly a strong support level.
Every day when watching the market
It gives off a certain feeling.
When others fall, it doesn’t fall much.
Even when the news is bad, it can hold up.
At one point, it even made me think
This time ETH might really run an independent rally.
But looking back.
Wow.
Turns out it’s not strong.
It’s just creating a "bottom confirmation" illusion for the market.
After more people chase in
It gets smashed down again.
——
Actually, after trading for so long, I found a pattern.
The most dangerous time
Is not when no one is bullish.
But when everyone starts to believe a certain level is absolutely safe.
1900 is exactly like that.
The longer it consolidates
The stronger everyone’s psychological defense becomes.
They think it can’t fall below here.
They think institutions will catch the fall.
They think ETF funds will support it.
But the market never becomes truly safe
Just because everyone thinks it is.
——
The core behind this drop
Is not any single piece of news.
But that capital sentiment is starting to shift.
Earlier, expectations of rate cuts heated up
Risk assets rebounded.
Many funds bought the dip accordingly.
But when the price can’t break through further
Short-term funds start to withdraw.
Rises rely on expectations.
Falls rely on disappointment.
Once expectations are dashed
Corrections often come quickly.
——
The biggest problem for $ETH now
Is not how much it has fallen.
But that the trend has returned to a weak range.
Previously, 1900 was a sign of bullish confidence.
Now 1900 has become a level that needs to be broken again.
If a short-term rebound can’t hold above 1850
It means buying hasn’t fully returned.
Focus next on the 1780 to 1800 area.
If this area breaks again
Market sentiment may deteriorate further.
——
$BTC is even more obvious.
Recently it has been oscillating between 64000 and 65000.
Many are waiting for a breakout.
But volume hasn’t expanded to break through.
This kind of movement easily tests patience.
Bulls feel they’re just missing a chance.
Bears feel the top is getting closer.
In the end, usually a big candlestick decides the direction.
If it breaks below 64000
The market may retest around 62000.
——
$SOL is actually quite interesting this round.
During the earlier rise
On-chain activity and capital heat clearly increased.
Many started discussing ecosystem opportunities again.
But the problem is
SOL has always been an emotion amplifier.
When the market is good, it rises sharply.
When the market hesitates
Funds also tend to reduce positions first.
So its future performance
Depends largely on overall market risk appetite.
——
The recent adjustment in $SNDK
Actually served as a wake-up call for the market.
The biggest problem in the AI sector now
Is not lack of demand.
But the market has already priced in part of the growth for the next few years.
When an industry moves from the "imagination stage" to the "validation stage"
Capital focus shifts from stories
to real profits.
So even with excellent performance
Funds may still take profits.
This is the most common rhythm for growth stocks.
——
Looking back now.
1900 isn’t impossible to hold.
But you can’t treat a short-term support
As a bottom that will never be broken.
The biggest trap in the market
Is to let you relax your guard when you feel most comfortable.
This time ETH demonstrated it again.
When it rises, it makes you afraid to miss out.
When it falls, it makes you question everything.
——
Currently, I still hold the same view.
Until the trend truly changes.
Don’t easily buy the dip against the trend.
Especially in this kind of choppy market.
Patiently wait for a clear direction.
That’s more important than rushing to prove yourself.
If a bull market really comes
It won’t be proven by just holding 1900.
It will be shown by a sustained upward structure to everyone.
At this stage.
Bears still hold the initiative at least.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 $XAU
Let's talk about gold
The short- to mid-term bottom has already appeared, and a rebound can be opportunistically made
In June and July, the Fed rate hike expectations were fully priced in, with the market once pricing a 100% rate hike in September, causing gold to hit bottom
Now, there are two main reasons causing gold to bottom and rebound:
1️⃣ Rate cut expectations rise
Non-farm payroll data underperformed, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September. The panic-driven rate hikes in the first half of the year are no longer a factor restraining gold
When the market's rate hike expectations were fully priced in, gold happened to bottom in July
2️⃣ Central banks buying gold again (see Figure 2)
Central banks worldwide are trading gold in waves by buying low and selling high. It can be seen that at the end of last year and early this year, when gold was high, the increase in central bank gold reserves was minimal
In June and July, when gold was low, the increase in gold reserves surged
Therefore, the gold price around $4000 in June and July is very cost-effective
3️⃣ Analysis from the K-line (see Figure 3)
In January and February this year, gold had a single-day drop exceeding 20%, with a very obvious spike
This spike point was at 4050, and gold has been oscillating around 4050 for the past two months
A sharp drop to a low point in a bull market trend often has huge support, and since it has oscillated near this point for a long time, the support here is very strong
So, the best entry point for gold is near 4050
Currently, gold is still mainly for swing trading (taking profit at 4800 is appropriate). It is not expected to break new highs. If it breaks 4400 and you chase gold, the cost-effectiveness will be much lower In recent days, many altcoins have started to rise. Most people psychologically think this is a signal that the main market is starting. How to put it? Before the technical gap is filled and before the bulls are cleared, any start can be seen as a bull trap. Moreover, the ones pumping are altcoins that no one plays with; meme leaders like Pepe haven't started yet. It is expected that there will be another 20% to 30% drop. This is the most basic judgment of the main market. You can imagine Bitcoin reaching 50,000; these altcoins seem low now but actually have room to go lower. Many people ask if altcoins still have a chance. I think there will be a wave of rally before the New Year. According to my logical reasoning, from October to December this year, the rally will mainly be driven by Bitcoin starting, and the old altcoins will follow. Why do I think it will rise after October? First, several conditions must be met: the technical side needs to fill the 49,000 gap from August to September. As long as this is filled during this period, there will be another wave of technical demand and rally. Second, on the fundamental side, it depends on whether there will be a rate hike in September (I expect a 25 basis point increase). This Wednesday's CPI data can be observed (it should be bearish). The last non-farm payroll data was unexpectedly weak and seemed fake, still acting. When the bearish factors in September are all out and the 49,000 technical gap is filled, the next stage will be a rebound rally. Here, I want to emphasize a very important point!BlockInfinity Evening Market Report · SPCX Negative News Fully Priced In, Short Squeeze Drives Uptrend, Short Covering Fuels the Market, Unlocking and Cash Burn Issues Still a Sword Hanging Overhead
Risk Warning: This is only an informational logic summary and does not constitute any investment advice. US stocks are highly volatile, and short selling or high-stakes trading in individual stocks carries extreme risk.
🌍 Macroeconomic Environment
The US stock market overall remains in a volatile pattern, with increasing divergence in the AI growth sector. Some high-stakes thematic stocks have experienced extreme moves. SPCX is approaching its IPO issue price of $135, showing a counterintuitive short squeeze rally; meanwhile, the market also saw a brutal case of BICO plummeting 49% in a single day, highlighting the stark polarization in thematic stocks.
One easily overlooked but strong market signal: The market previously unanimously expected the unlocking to bring a trillion-level sell-off pressure, but in reality, after the unlocking, the stock price surged 23% in two days, increasing market cap by over 327 billion. To translate: After the earnings report, the stock price had already dropped to a historic low of $104.85, and pessimistic expectations were fully priced in. The negative news was fully absorbed, turning into a "negative fully priced in" scenario, combined with massive short positions triggering a short squeeze-driven short covering rally.
From the chip structure perspective, SPCX's short positions reach $24.6 billion, exceeding Tesla's short scale, with 16% of tradable shares sold short. During the price rebound, shorts were forced to cover, and the covering buying further pushed prices up, forming a positive feedback short squeeze. Short forces remain present, but the chip environment is increasingly unfavorable to shorts.
Next key timing variable: There are 10 trading days left until the second batch unlocking window on August 20. The $135 IPO pricing level becomes the short-term critical checkpoint: holding above this level could extend the short squeeze rally; failure to break through poses a significant risk of pullback.
Fundamental signals show contradictions: Revenue in the earnings report was 7.8 billion, AI business losses narrowed, but capital expenditure was 18.37 billion, a year-on-year surge of 550%. Citibank gave a target price of $220, but the premise for this high valuation to hold is a significant slowdown in subsequent capital expenditure and cash burn; otherwise, the valuation will remain under pressure.
Comparison with other market targets: SNDK remains in a sideways range near 1200; BICO experienced a 49% single-day plunge, a huge loss case in thematic stocks, reminding the market of the risks in high-stakes sectors.
The market spillover is very real: SPCX's recent rise is not entirely due to fundamental breakthroughs; the core drivers are negative news fully priced in + massive short covering + new story expectations, belonging to sentiment + chip-driven market action. The weakness of chip-driven rallies is that once short covering completes and the second batch unlocking sell pressure arrives, the market can quickly reverse.
Key points to closely monitor: 1. The gain or loss at the $135 IPO threshold; 2. The actual sell pressure from the second batch unlocking on August 20, and whether subsequent capital expenditure can contract.
Scenario Simulation
1. Optimistic Scenario: Holding above $135, shorts continue to cover, extending the upward trend, attacking institutional target price ranges.
2. Base Scenario: Attempt to break $135 fails and pulls back, entering a consolidation phase awaiting the test of the second batch unlocking.
3. Pessimistic Scenario: The second batch unlocking brings actual sell pressure combined with worries about cash burn, causing the stock price to re-enter a correction. 122 projects. This is the number of virtual asset projects that have ceased operations, permanently shut down, or directly filed for bankruptcy liquidation from March to early August this year, as counted by the on-chain data agency RootData. On this lengthy death list, there are Layer 2 networks once valued at hundreds of millions of dollars, once-popular decentralized lending protocols, and Web3 infrastructure projects boasting various innovations.
This is by no means a pessimistic signal of a market peak; on the contrary, it is a very healthy and inevitable deflationary purge of the industry’s overinflated infrastructure supply over the past two years.
If we rewind to the last funding boom, as long as your whitepaper mentioned modular, high-performance Layer 2 networks or decentralized AI computing power, you could secure tens of millions of dollars in early-stage investment before the testnet even launched, and issue tokens with fully diluted valuations in the billions. This was a typical self-reinforcing game: VCs bought early allocations of overvalued tokens with money, projects used the raised funds to fabricate on-chain data and fake daily active users, then hoped retail investors in the secondary market would take over tokens upon unlock, completing the funding loop.
But faced with real demand, this castle built on storytelling could not last.
Today’s crypto market faces the most severe infrastructure overcapacity. The Ethereum ecosystem is crowded with many similar general-purpose Layer 2 networks whose operating mechanisms are almost identical. Their tokens, aside from governance and staking, have no real economic utility. The genuine transaction demand across the entire network cannot support the daily operation of hundreds of public chains. Without real ecosystem users and without self-sustaining fee revenue, these projects can only continuously consume inventory tokens to subsidize liquidity or rely on successive VC funding to survive. When retail investors in the secondary market grow completely tired of tokens with high fully diluted valuations being dumped, and VCs tighten their wallets due to lack of exit channels, this pretend prosperity of a game of hot potato simply cannot continue.
I previously interacted with a privacy-focused Layer 2 network for a few days. Honestly, after bridging my funds over, when I opened their official ecosystem list, apart from two or three rough-interface, low-liquidity swap protocols, the entire network was empty. I couldn’t find a single decentralized application that attracted me to stay, nor any valuable data flow. Looking at that dead blockchain explorer, I had only one thought: this infrastructure, completely turned into a ghost town, what use does it have for the industry’s development besides providing VC targets for token unlock dumps? Its shutdown and collapse are not accidental but the inevitable result of logical forces at work.
The ruthless market elimination of a large number of poor-quality infrastructures lacking self-sustaining ability is actually a tonic for the industry’s maturation. When the tide recedes, those platforms with real capital turnover efficiency, genuine protocol net income, and stable user retention will reclaim capital and attention.
Although I firmly believe this brutal elimination is a necessary path for the industry to shed its dross, I also ask myself a possibly overlooked risk blind spot: if the mass collapse of startups ultimately leads to collective loss of confidence in the developer ecosystem, driving a new generation of technical talent completely away from this market, then how deep will the bottom of this ruthless purge be dragged?
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Sisters!
From a 77% floating profit on the first order to closing all positions today, what have I been through?
I have closed all positions and now I am going short on Dogecoin!
The account is clean. The last $BICO long position closed, doubling the profit.
The $SNDK short position was cut with an 18-point loss. One win and one loss, it all comes down to a wasted effort.
It's false to say I'm not reluctant.
I held BICO from 0.025 to 0.047, with a peak floating profit close to 90 points but didn’t exit, finally only taking out half the profit.
That's how people are: wanting to earn more when winning, wanting to hold on to recover losses, but in the end, it’s all in vain.
But the feeling of clearing the account is quite good. Starting fresh.
Then I focused on DOGE.
Current price 0.06968, all moving averages are clustered together, sideways for almost a month.
On August 7th, the hourly chart just showed a "death cross" with the 50-period MA crossing below the 200-period MA.
The weekly chart also showed a death cross, the first since 2023. Price is 14% below the 50-day SMA and 22% below the 200-day SMA.
Global long-short position ratio shows net longs at 73.1%, ratio 2.72. Binance Futures "smart money" is even more extreme, net longs 77.6%, position ratio 3.46.
Retail investors are buying, big players are buying, with so many bullish, who will take the baton? The spot market tells a different story, with spot sellers’ real-time volume exceeding buyers by $8.2 million.
Long-biased positions and net spot selling—historical experience shows the side with more people usually gets liquidated.
There’s a big risk. Dogecoin spot ETF recorded its first net outflow in July, $520,000. Institutions are withdrawing, retail is rushing in. Someone opened a 40x short at 0.071; I’m cautious, 3x is enough. Short near 0.07, stop loss at 0.074, target 0.065. The risk-reward ratio is favorable. After so long sideways, you have to pick a direction. I’m betting down.
$BTC
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ ⚡ WHY SOLANA’S CULTURE COULD BE ONE OF ITS BIGGEST ADVANTAGES
One thing I think Solana’s leadership has done exceptionally well is supporting founders and ideas across the entire spectrum — even when an experiment looks strange, unconventional, or downright cringe. 😅
That openness gives builders permission to be weird, creative, and highly expressive.
In some ways, it reminds me of what Ethereum felt like in its early days.
And that matters.
When founders have the freedom to experiment, more ideas get tested on-chain. Most will fail, but that’s part of the process.
Because eventually, one weird experiment can become a massive on-chain game, a new financial primitive, or an entirely new crypto category.
You don’t want to decide in advance which experiments deserve to exist and which don’t.
Supporting only the “serious” ideas can actually discourage innovation and alienate builders.
The goal should be to maximize the number of experiments happening.
More experiments → more discoveries → new products → liquidity → users.
🔥 **The best ecosystems aren’t necessarily the ones that predict the next big thing.
They’re the ones that create an environment where the next big thing has a chance to emerge.**
$SOL #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases While attention stays fixed on Wednesday's CPI print, a quieter supply-side risk is building underneath it: this week carries one of the heaviest token-unlock calendars in months, led by YZY releasing roughly 23% of its circulating supply, alongside sizable unlocks for $AVAX, $APT, and Pump.fun. Unlock events like this rarely move price alone, but they matter most when liquidity is already thin, and derivatives open interest data shows exactly that kind of thinning: capital is concentrating into fewer venues, with Hyperliquid's perpetual DEX open interest now near $10.7B, far ahead of $HYPE's closest competitors.
That combination, concentrated derivatives liquidity plus a heavy unlock week, creates asymmetric risk for lower-cap tokens with active vesting schedules, even if $BTC and $ETH stay range-bound on macro anticipation. Meanwhile, steady ETF inflows into $BTC and $ETH, alongside institutional stablecoin moves like Samsung's planned wallet integration, suggest large-cap capital is behaving defensively rather than rotating into altcoins like $XRP, $ONDO, $LINK, $SUI, or $DOGE right now.
The unlock overhang could be the week's real volatility driver, not CPI. Do you agree unlock supply is being underweighted relative to macro catalysts this week?#Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflow of $853 million
This data gets my blood boiling!
$853 million! Five consecutive days of net inflow! Setting a single-week inflow record since April! Has the market finally come to its senses?
Do you know what's the most outrageous? BlackRock alone swallowed $694 million, accounting for 80% of the total inflow! This isn't just capital inflow, it's institutions scrambling to accumulate! And the positive fund flow for five consecutive days is the first time in 15 weeks, completely ending the previous bleak situation of over $8.2 billion outflow in eight consecutive weeks.
But to be blunt, why do I feel a chill behind this?
The money is real cash coming in, but BTC price is still hovering around 64,000, grinding sideways. This is not right! The Coinbase premium, an indicator measuring US institutional demand, has been negative for 80 consecutive days. What does this mean? Most of the ETF money is more arbitrage funds playing around, not those long-term institutions blindly buying.
And there's a hidden risk — the average holding cost for short-term holders is $67,523, now the price is $64,952, meaning these people are down 3.8%. When the price rebounds near their cost line, selling pressure could come crashing down at any time.
My stance: The $850 million inflow indicates a good direction, but whether $BTC can hold above 65,000 or even higher depends on whether the spot market has real demand to follow. Prices pushed up solely by ETF buying can be wiped out by a single bearish candle.
Brothers, the scene is heating up, but don't rush to pile all your chips in. Wait until it firmly holds $65,000 with real cash before talking about faith. Do you think this ETF inflow is a signal of a bull market turnaround? Let's debate in the comments!$SPCX at $135 — do you choose to go long or short?
Before the unlock on August 6th,
everyone thought the price would crash due to the unlock.
Short sellers entered early, with 34% of the circulating shares shorted.
However, unexpectedly, there was no immediate collapse.
At this point, shorts need to cover (short sellers borrow shares from brokers to sell short; when closing the position, they need to buy back shares from the market to return to the broker).
When a large number of shorts cover simultaneously, a short squeeze begins, accelerating the stock price upward.
Retail investors see the price rising and also chase longs.
This is the reason for the current rally.
911.5 million shares available for sale have not disappeared into thin air.
More unlocks are still on the way.
I don't think Musk will buy back most of the circulating shares.
The possibility of a big surge in $SPCX within this year is low.
Shorting remains the most cost-effective strategy. When the market is so cold that no one is watching, there are big long positions on Bitcoin in CME futures.
$BTC has been hovering around 64000 for five weeks, with Binance spot trading volume continuously shrinking. Most people are waiting for a deeper dip to buy the bottom. But the latest CME futures net positions show that hedge funds and institutions have been increasing their long positions for several consecutive weeks. This position is usually negative for years because institutions typically buy spot and short futures to earn the spread. The abnormal growth in net longs can only mean that larger funds are actively going long.
Two historical signals like this are worth remembering. Last year, during the deepest retracement to 74000, hedge funds went heavily long, and the price then surged all the way to 126000. Before the last short squeeze that lasted over a month, institutions also suddenly went long futures, combined with retail investors being trapped short, leading to a nearly 30% short squeeze. The reverse signal has also been accurate: the week the price rebounded above 80000, short positions suddenly surged to four or five times the previous level. Then MicroStrategy announced its first wave of selling, triggering the largest capitulation sell-off in history, and the price dropped sharply back to just over 50000.
Now, starting from 57000, these longs are adding positions again, with numbers still rising last week. On-chain data aligns: small holders with less than 10 coins are selling, while whales with over 100 coins are buying. The volatility signal has been lit continuously longer than the previous two major rallies; the longer the momentum is compressed, the more explosive the release. As long as the price holds above 64000, there is still a chance to challenge 68000 to 71000.
No one can know the exact bottom with 100% certainty. In the final phase of the bear market, buying in batches is more practical than betting on a perfect bottom.
#Bitcoin Recently, many altcoins have started to rise. Most people psychologically think this is a signal that the main market is starting. How to put it, before the technical gap is filled and before the bulls are cleared, any start can be seen as a bull trap. Moreover, the ones pumping are altcoins that no one is playing with; meme leaders like Pepe haven't started yet. It is expected that there will still be a 20% to 30% drop. This is the most basic judgment of the main market. You can imagine Bitcoin reaching 50,000; these altcoins seem low now but actually have room to go lower. Many people ask if altcoins still have a chance. I think there will be a wave of rally before the New Year. According to my logical reasoning, from October to December this year, the rally will mainly be driven by Bitcoin starting, and the old altcoins will follow. Why do I think it will rise after October? First, several conditions must be met: the technical side needs to fill the 49,000 gap between August and September. As long as this is filled during this period, there will be another wave of technical demand rally. Second, on the fundamental side, it depends on whether there will be an interest rate hike in September (I expect a 25 basis point hike). This Wednesday's CPI data can be observed (it should be bearish). The last non-farm payroll data was unexpectedly weak and seemed fake, still acting. When the bearish factors are all out in September and the 49,000 technical gap is filled, the next phase will be a rebound rally. Here, I want to emphasize a very important thing! Remember I mentioned in a previous post about Trump's midterm elections in November? Before that, there will definitely be many positive measures to win public support. At that time, the stock market will rise, and the Bitcoin bill might also pass then. You can check the timing. $BTC and altcoins must wait until Bitcoin drops to 50,000 before making moves!When the market is so cold that no one is watching, there are big long positions on Bitcoin in CME futures.
Bitcoin has been hovering around 64000 for five weeks, with spot trading volume continuously shrinking. Most people are waiting for a deeper dip to buy the bottom. But the latest CME futures net positions show that hedge funds and institutions have been increasing their long positions for several consecutive weeks. This position is usually negative for years because institutions typically buy spot and short futures to earn the spread. The abnormal growth in net longs can only mean that larger funds are actively going long.
Two historical signals like this are worth remembering. Last year, during the deepest retracement to 74000, hedge funds went heavily long, and the price then surged all the way to 126000. Before the last short squeeze that lasted over a month, institutions also suddenly went long futures, combined with retail investors being lured into shorting, followed by a nearly 30% squeeze. The reverse signal has also been effective: the week the price rebounded above 80000, short positions suddenly surged to four or five times the previous level. Then MicroStrategy announced its first wave of selling coins, triggering the largest capitulation sell-off in history, and the price dropped sharply back to just over 50000.
Now, starting from 57000, this batch of longs is increasing their positions again, with numbers still rising last week. On-chain data aligns: small holders with fewer than 10 coins are selling, while whales with over 100 coins are buying. The volatility signal has been lit continuously for longer than the previous two major rallies; the longer the momentum is compressed, the more explosive the release. As long as the price holds above 64000, there is still a chance to challenge 68000 to 71000.
No one can know the exact bottom with 100% certainty. In the final phase of the bear market, buying in batches is more practical than betting on a perfect bottom.
#Bitcoin #BTC BIP-110 fork stalled after 8 hours, Bitcoin's true moat is still consensus
The outcome after launch is actually more interesting than the debate itself.
The chain supporting the fork mined only 2 blocks about 8 hours after launch, then basically stalled, with the gap from the Bitcoin mainnet continuously widening. This result indicates one thing:
In the Bitcoin ecosystem, technical solutions are not the decisive factor; what truly determines rule changes is community consensus.
My view is: I believe the failure of BIP-110 does not mean the "inscription restriction" direction has no value, but rather that any proposal to change Bitcoin's underlying rules must gain sufficiently broad support from miners, nodes, and users.
This is also the biggest difference between Bitcoin and many other blockchains.
Many projects can quickly upgrade through foundation or team voting, but Bitcoin has no centralized manager. If you want to change the rules, you have to face the entire ecosystem's game.
The core controversy of BIP-110 is actually not just about inscriptions.
Supporters believe that a large amount of non-financial data written into blocks occupies block space, increases transaction costs, and affects Bitcoin's efficiency as a value storage network.
Opponents worry that artificially restricting certain transaction types might undermine Bitcoin's long-standing principles of openness and neutrality.
Both viewpoints have merit.
But the final deciding factors are reality:
Is there enough hash power support?
Are there enough nodes running?
Do enough users recognize it?
If the answer is no, even if the code is released, it is very difficult to truly change the main chain.
I think the biggest lesson this event gives the market is:
Bitcoin's greatest value is not just the 21 million supply cap, but that it has a governance mechanism that is difficult for a few to change.
Of course, this mechanism also means reduced efficiency.
Slow upgrades, many disputes, and long consensus formation cycles are costs Bitcoin must bear.
But in the long run, it is precisely this "difficulty to change" that makes the market believe it will not be easily controlled by any single organization.
So for BTC investment, I will not change my long-term judgment because of a single fork failure or ecosystem dispute.
Short-term focus is on market sentiment; long-term focus remains on three things:
First, whether network security continues to strengthen;
Second, whether global capital continues to recognize BTC as a non-sovereign asset;
Third, whether the Bitcoin ecosystem can continue to develop while maintaining core principles.
The eventual stalling of BIP-110 may just be a governance experiment.
But it once again proves one thing:
In the Bitcoin world, changing code is easy, changing consensus is hard. What truly decides the future is never a single proposal, but whether the entire ecosystem is willing to move in that direction together.
#比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 $BTC Why is the selling pressure being "mitigated"?
- Gradual unlocking: Implemented in nine stages in batches to avoid a one-time shock.
- First batch on August 6: Only about 20% released, approximately 1.8 billion shares, not the full 9.115 billion shares.
- Subsequent batches: About 7% released on each of August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 26.
- After Q3 earnings: Expected to release about 28% more.
- 180-day expiration: Early December 2026, all remaining shares not unlocked early will be fully unlocked.
- Musk's lock-up: About 42% of shares locked until June 2027, not participating in early staged unlocking.
Short sellers remain, but "crowded shorting" brings a short squeeze risk
- Short position size: About 219 million shares, approximately 34% of the float, with a nominal value around $25 billion.
- Position increase: Rapidly rose from about 23.3 million shares at IPO to 219 million shares.
- Paper profits: After the price pullback, shorts have about $7 billion in unrealized gains.
- Short squeeze risk: If actual selling is less than expected, it may trigger short covering and push a rebound.
How you should track it
- Monitor selling data: Follow SEC Form 4 to track insiders' actual selling scale and pace.
- Watch stock price and volume: If the price rises instead of falling on subsequent unlock dates, beware of a short squeeze; if volume increases with price decline, selling pressure dominates.
- Check institutional ratings and target prices: Most institutions remain bullish, with an average target price around $221.
- Look at valuation support: Morgan Stanley believes the $100 level already fairly reflects pessimistic expectations.
My view
The market withstood the August 6 unlocking wave; the stock price didn’t collapse but rose. However, this doesn’t mean the following rounds will also hold—the unlocking batches each represent new supply shocks.
Why "withstood in August" doesn’t mean "will withstand later"
After the first batch unlocking on August 6, the stock price actually surged, mainly due to trading dynamics (short squeeze), not fundamental strength:
- Shorts were squeezed: Before unlocking, short interest was as high as 34%. When the price stabilized slightly, the large short positions were forced to buy back to avoid losses, creating a "buying as price rises" loop.
- "Can sell" doesn’t mean "must sell": Unlocking only grants the right to sell. When the price is relatively low, some early investors choose to "hold back," resulting in actual selling pressure being less than the theoretical "hundreds of billions market cap."
Key difference: For the September and October unlockings, the market will no longer have the "bad news fully priced in" expectation gap, nor can it rely on "short covering" to absorb selling pressure. The price action will fully depend on real buyer demand and insiders’ willingness to cash out.
The real test: The "supply flood" in September and October
The upcoming unlocking scale is not only large but structurally more complex:
- Monthly supply increase: On August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 26, about 319 million shares unlock each month, totaling about 700 million shares over two months.
- "Massive impact" after Q3 earnings: After Q3 earnings release (expected early November), 28% of locked shares (about 1.276 billion shares) will unlock at once. This is a more intense shock than the first batch in August, and the market will price in this expectation in September-October.
Operational advice: Why "waiting for chip stability" is the optimal strategy
At the current stage, "not heavy positions, wait and see" is the most cost-effective strategy for these reasons:
- Valuation is in a "Schrödinger state": Viewed by short-term losses, it’s expensive; viewed by future AI computing power/Starlink monopoly, it has imagination space. When chips flood in, the market tends to trade "short-term negatives" (selling pressure) first.
- Avoid being the "bag holder": Insiders’ cost basis is extremely low, and their selling willingness is not influenced by whether the secondary market is "cheap." Early in unlocking, selling pressure is continuous, and entering too early risks buying at the "mid-slope."
- Wait for clear signals: Only after a subsequent unlocking batch lands and the stock price rises instead of falling can it be confirmed that selling pressure has been absorbed by the market. At that time, entering on the right side is far more certain than bottom-fishing on the left side now.The Fireplace team officially announced that the prediction market and trading terminal will soon close, and the website will operate until September 30, 23:59 (UTC). There are nearly two months left for users to handle the situation, and this incident has poured cold water on the booming prediction market. According to the official notice, all users must complete three things before the deadline: close all their holdings, withdraw all funds, and export their account data. Once September 30 passes, the website will be taken offline directly, and there will be no way to withdraw or manage positions afterward. Interestingly, the project did not directly destroy all technical achievements. The team has sent a signal to the public: if other teams want to take over and continue the prediction market, they can proactively contact them. The official website has already organized and opened relevant technical materials, effectively making the entire tech stack look for a buyer. Recently, the market narrative for predictions has been very hot, with Polymarket's traffic surging. Many market participants believe this is the next explosive track, with funds flooding into related small coins. But the shutdown of Fireplace exposed the harsh reality of this track. It looks like the traffic is lively, but in reality, there are many obstacles to survival. On one hand, compliance pressure is enormous, and the market can easily cross the regulatory red lines for gambling and derivatives; On the other hand, competition in the sector is fiercely competitive, with users heavily concentrated on leading platforms. Small and medium-sized projects struggle to secure sufficient trading volume, and income cannot support the team's continued operations. No matter how hot the narrative, without real, sustainable cash flow, the project struggles to hold up weekly🗺️ MY SIMPLE CRYPTO MARKET MAP
This is how I currently view the crypto ecosystem. 👀
What do you think? Let me know in the comments.
Instead of looking at crypto as a random list of tickers, think of it as an interconnected network of different technologies and financial layers.
🟢 Financial Layer — DeFi
$AAVE $UNI $JUP
🔵 Blockchain Layer — Layer 1s
$ETH $SOL $SUI $AVAX
🔴 Asset Layer — RWA & Tokenization
$ONDO $PAXG
🟣 Scaling Layer — Layer 2s
$ARB $OP $STRK
🟠 Computing Layer — AI & Decentralized Compute
$TAO $RENDER $FET
🟡 Monetary Layer — Scarcity & Digital Money
$BTC $LTC $XMR
Of course, these categories aren’t completely separate. Some projects serve multiple roles and can benefit from several narratives at once.
That’s the key.
Crypto isn’t just a collection of isolated tokens.
It’s an interconnected ecosystem where liquidity, infrastructure, applications, assets, scaling, computing, and monetary networks all influence each other.
Once you understand how these sectors connect, it becomes much easier to understand where narratives are forming — and where capital may rotate next.
🧠 Don’t just memorize the tickers.
Understand the architecture.
$BTC $ETH#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases $SOL This target is still very accurate, 75.8
The lowest hit 75.78, those who understand Lao Mao's strength know! Today's mainstream strategies have all reached their targets.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ $BTC $ETH #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？
Gold has risen, so why hasn't BTC followed?
The correlation between these two assets is breaking down. Gold's logic chain is short: when interest rate expectations shift and the dollar weakens, it immediately bounces. BTC's chain is much longer; liquidity must first flow into risk assets, then the crypto market's internal liquidity must recover, with more than one layer in between.
Additionally, BTC is still digesting a lot: the CLARITY Act hasn't been implemented, stablecoin liquidity is contracting, and mining companies are still offloading. Macro tailwinds have to pass through several hurdles.
For traders, the core value of this situation isn't "why gold rose but BTC didn't," but that it provides a reference point—if the gold price breakout can sustain, it will eventually drive liquidity overflow into risk assets. BTC will be one of the beneficiaries, just with a slower rhythm.
In short, gold is pricing in rate cut expectations, while BTC is still waiting for its own catalyst. The two assets are currently going their separate ways, but liquidity will eventually transmit.
Just wait. Gold rising is a good thing, but it doesn't mean BTC will immediately follow. Wednesday's CPI is the real direction.
What do you all think?
$BTC $ETH $XAUT Key points: Some thoughts on this altcoin season:
Playing this altcoin cycle with the logic of the last altcoin cycle will inevitably lead to a mental breakdown.
1. What people think altcoin season is:
1) Like the last cycle, all coins rise, whether new or old coins
2) The increase matches the last cycle's scale, only then is it called a rise, only then is it called altcoin season
In fact, many altcoin sectors in this bull market are already relatively large. If you haven't made money, it's because:
1) You missed the rhythm and missed the explosive sectors
2) You entered late, with high cost basis
For example, if you bought wld at 9u or ordi at 70u and call them trash, saying there's no altcoin season, look at how much they have risen from the bottom. Why didn't you buy earlier?
These two altcoins belong to local hotspot altcoin seasons.
Those holding old coins shouldn't expect all old coins to reach or even break previous highs; not every coin is inj.
Most old coins have already exited the historical stage, but in the final phase of the bull market, they will still spike to show respect to the bull market.
The core of local hotspot altcoin seasons: narratives important for bull market speculation.
So altcoins that can complete the bull market cycle tasks:
1) Old coins: concentrated chips, project teams still working, able to keep up with market hotspots, timely alignment, marketing hype.
2) New coins: concentrated chips, no trapped holders, have undergone some time of consolidation.
3) Listing on major exchanges, which is a prerequisite for sustained market momentum.
2. We need to see reality clearly:
1) The number of altcoins is several orders of magnitude more than in 2021, and market cap as well.
2) The overall increase in each bull market cycle is declining.
3) Even with this round of interest rate cuts, the scale is likely smaller than in 2020.
4) The liquidity from rate cuts will still only flow into hotspot projects.
This altcoin season is still following bull market logic; local hotspot seasons will continue to emerge, but won't repeatedly hype just one hotspot; rotation will still occur.
Rate cuts won't bring a broadly rising altcoin season; they will only make hotspot seasons hotter!
New funds keep entering, making local hotspot altcoins rise more (but still won't have the explosive power of the last bull market altcoins), liquidity strengthens, and the retreat won't be as fast as now but will slow down gradually.
Hotspots rotate like this, which is basically no different from altcoin season. As long as you're not foolish and don't hold altcoins like sushi or crv all the time, you can at least rotate into gains.
The era of lying flat and making money is over; smart holders will make more money in the bull market than those who just act.$BTC MARA sold 23,093 BTC in the first half of the year! Major shift in listed mining companies' holding strategies
August 10
Data shows that in the first half of 2026, MARA sold a total of 23,093 BTC, with a total transaction value of about $1.6 billion, at an average selling price of $70,631 per BTC.
As of the end of June, MARA still holds 35,577 BTC, with a market value of approximately $2.3 billion at current prices.
The market has previously focused more on MARA's Bitcoin inventory growth, overlooking its large-scale selling behavior. This indicates a clear strategic change among leading listed mining companies: no longer simply hoarding mined coins, but actively selling treasury BTC to cope with high capital expenditures, repay debts, optimize corporate capital structure, and simultaneously invest in AI computing power and energy infrastructure transformation businesses.
Key information breakdown
1. Selling background: Increased mining operational pressure after halving
After Bitcoin halving, block rewards are halved, while mining companies face high electricity costs, equipment expenses, and new infrastructure capital expenditures. Relying solely on mining cash flow can no longer cover expansion needs. MARA has shifted from "pure hoarding" to a mixed treasury strategy of hoarding plus opportunistic selling, realizing gains at high prices to improve the balance sheet, using some funds to repay convertible bond debt and invest in AI data center construction.
In March alone, MARA sold 15,133 BTC in a single transaction worth about $1.1 billion, the largest sale in the first half.
2. Not a full exit, inventory remains substantial
Although 23,093 BTC were sold in six months, MARA still holds 35,577 BTC, remaining one of the world's leading Bitcoin corporate treasuries. This shows it is not bearish on Bitcoin but managing liquidity at the corporate level.
3. Industry snapshot: More listed miners selling inventory coins
Not only MARA, but several US-listed mining companies have sold existing BTC inventories this year. They are no longer just selling newly mined coins daily but directly moving historical holdings, marking an important new change this cycle.
Real market impact
- Short term: The sales completed in the first half represent realized selling pressure and will not directly crash the current market.
- Medium-term risk: If the strategy of "selling treasury BTC at high prices" continues, each Bitcoin rally may face selling pressure from miners.
- Hedging forces: Continuous inflows into spot ETFs and some listed companies' ongoing accumulation will offset supply pressure from miners. Ultimately, the market depends on the balance between institutional buying and miner selling.
Important distinction: Miner selling ≠ immediate sharp decline; but it means the market has a supply group that sells on rallies, which is a key on-chain indicator to track long-term.
Summary
MARA's data reminds the market that in a bull market at high levels, listed miners treat treasury Bitcoin as corporate cash assets for management.
On one side, ETF institutions keep buying; on the other, miners realize inventory gains at highs. These two forces continue to compete. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously track monthly selling data from miners to observe whether selling pressure will further increase.#Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflow of $853 million
This data gets my blood boiling!
$853 million! Five consecutive days of net inflow! Setting a single-week inflow record since April! Has the market finally come to its senses?
Do you know what's the most outrageous? BlackRock alone swallowed $694 million, accounting for 80% of the total inflow! This isn't just capital inflow, this is institutions scrambling to accumulate! And the positive fund flow for five consecutive days is the first time in 15 weeks, completely ending the previous bleak situation of over $8.2 billion outflow in eight consecutive weeks.
But to be blunt, why do I feel a chill behind this?
The money is real gold and silver coming in, but BTC price is still hovering around 64,000, grinding sideways. This is not right! The Coinbase premium, an indicator measuring US institutional demand, has been negative for 80 consecutive days. What does this mean? Most of the ETF money is more arbitrage funds playing around, not those long-term institutions blindly buying.
And there's a hidden risk — the average holding cost for short-term holders is $67,523, now the price is $64,952, meaning these people are down 3.8%. When the price rebounds near their cost line, selling pressure could come crashing down at any time.
My stance: The $850 million inflow indicates a good direction, but whether $BTC can hold above 65,000 or even higher depends on whether the spot market has real demand to follow. Prices pushed up solely by ETF buying can be wiped out by a single bearish candle.
Brothers, the scene is heating up, but don't rush to pile all your chips in. Wait until it truly holds above 65,000 with real money before talking about faith. Do you think this ETF inflow is a signal of a bull market turnaround? Let's debate in the comments!Recently, many altcoins have started to rise, and most people psychologically think this is a signal that the main market is starting.
How to put it, before the technical gap is filled and before the bulls are cleared, any start can be seen as a bull trap, and the ones pumping are altcoins that no one is playing with. The meme leader Pepe and others haven't started yet. It is expected that there will still be a 20% to 30% drop, which is the most basic judgment of the main market.
You can imagine Bitcoin reaching 50,000; these altcoins seem low now but actually have room to go lower. Many people ask if altcoins still have a chance. I think there will be a wave of rally before the New Year. According to my logical reasoning, from October to December this year, the rally will mainly be driven by Bitcoin starting, and the old altcoins will follow the flight. Why do I think it will rise after October?
First, several conditions must be met.
The first is that the technical side fills the 49,000 gap from August to September. As long as this is filled during this period, there will be a wave of technical demand for a rally afterward.
Second: Fundamentally, it depends on whether there will be a rate hike in September (I expect a 25 basis point hike). This Wednesday's CPI data can be observed (it should be bearish). The last non-farm payroll data was unexpectedly weak and seemed fake, still playing a show. When the bearish factors are all out in September and the 49,000 technical gap is filled, the next phase will be a rebound rally. Here, I want to emphasize a very important point!#CLARITY vote postponed to September, regulatory window delayed
The vote has been postponed. Not canceled, just moved to September.
What does this mean? It means the regulatory guillotine is temporarily hanging in mid-air, not falling. For the batch of coins named by the SEC, this is a breathing window, not a free pass.
Breaking it down.
---
$XRP: The most direct beneficiary
The SEC and Ripple case has always been a regulatory barometer. The CLARITY bill might have accelerated the judgment process, but now postponed to September, effectively giving XRP an extra month of safety. Bears dare not act rashly, bulls have a story to tell.
· Key levels: 0.50 is a psychological threshold, 0.55 is previous high resistance.
· Strategy: Hold above 0.50. Add positions if it breaks 0.55; if not, trade within the range.
---
$SOL: Regulatory pressure temporarily eased
SOL was previously named by the SEC as a security and was once hammered down to double digits. Now with the bill postponed, regulatory pressure is temporarily relieved. Coupled with on-chain activity and signs of recovery in the MEME ecosystem, it is a resilient asset.
· Key levels: Previous highs are resistance; a pullback that doesn’t break support indicates strength.
· Strategy: Do not chase highs; enter on pullbacks that hold support. Stop loss if broken.
---
$MATIC: Weakest, but with the greatest resilience
After being named by the SEC, MATIC has been the slowest to recover. Weak, but this means if the regulatory window delay triggers sector rotation, its rebound potential is actually the largest.
· Strategy: Wait for the sector leader to move first, then follow. Do not preemptively position; weak coins don’t deserve early entry.
---
Summary of actions:
· Regulatory-related coins: XRP, SOL, $MATIC, short-term bullish bias but not a trend reversal. The September vote is the next key date; before then, bulls have a story, bears have caution.
· Risk reminder: Postponement is not cancellation. Once September arrives, regulatory risks will be repriced. Don’t fall in love with regulation long-term; only trade the window period.
· Market linkage: Wednesday’s CPI is the master switch for all risk assets. Before CPI is released, control your positions; don’t relax vigilance just because the regulatory window is delayed. $BTC Bearish Divergence (Hidden)
Spot Volume running flat as Open Interest drops.
Not a good sign, especially on a U.S. Market open Monday...As of August 10, the Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index rose to 42.39 times as of August 7, far above the long-term average of 17.40 times, only slightly below the historical peak of 44.19 times during the dot-com bubble, and exceeding the valuation level of 32.56 times before the 1929 Great Crash. Currently, it has entered the second historical extreme range where CAPE exceeds 40 times.
Analysis points out that the CAPE indicator is mainly used to measure long-term investment return expectations rather than to predict short-term market tops. Almost all historical cases of CAPE exceeding 40 times are concentrated in the 1999 to 2000 dot-com bubble period, so it cannot be simply inferred from a single bubble cycle that the U.S. stock market will inevitably enter a "lost decade" in the next ten years.
However, high valuations mean that the long-term valuation margin of error for U.S. stocks is decreasing. Future market returns will rely more on corporate earnings continuing to exceed expectations rather than further valuation expansion.
The market believes that the productivity improvements, margin enhancements, and corporate earnings growth brought by the wave of artificial intelligence (AI) may help sustain high valuations for a longer period. But if AI earnings fall short of expectations or real interest rates continue to rise, the high valuation environment may amplify market adjustment pressures.
The core signal released by CAPE is that the expected returns of U.S. stocks over the next decade may face downward pressure, but this indicator does not directly imply that the U.S. stock market is about to peak, nor can it infer that actual returns over the next ten years will necessarily be negative. $SNDK #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ I long $HOME at 0.009448. This is not an emotional long because the price is rising sharply, but a trade based on a fairly clear technical structure.
Reasons I chose to LONG HOME:
On the 15M chart, HOME has accumulated for quite a while in the 0.0094–0.0098 range. The price was repeatedly sold down but could not break the bottom, indicating that selling pressure is weakening.
The most important point is that the price has broken out of the accumulation zone and simultaneously broken the short-term downtrend line. After the breakout, the price continued to hold the 0.0100 area instead of falling back below it.
On the 1D chart, HOME is also showing signs of recovery from a strong bottom area. The price has now surpassed the Fibonacci 0.0100 level, so if it holds this area, the probability of continuing the upward move will be higher.
The next target area I expect is 0.01165. This is a nearby resistance zone and also an important target after the price escapes the accumulation zone.
Therefore, I chose the entry point at 0.009448, which is quite close to the support area instead of chasing after the price has already risen sharply.
The invalidation point of the setup is below 0.00935. If the price falls back and loses this area, the breakout structure will be broken and I accept cutting the trade.
In summary:
Entry: 0.009448
SL: 0.00935
Expected TP: 0.01165
Area to hold: 0.0100
Main reason: accumulation → breakout trendline → reclaim 0.0100 → heading towards Fibonacci/upper resistance.
What I like most about this setup is the very good R:R ratio. I don’t need the price to rise too far, just for HOME to continue holding the current breakout structure for the trade to have an advantage.
Note: this is an analysis for my setup, not a recommendation to use 20x leverage. With high leverage, even a short sweep can cause significant damage. Maji Big Brother really did get hurt this time. I just finished refreshing the Hyperliquid public address, which was around 23:20 Beijing time on August 10. The account hadn't reset to zero, and the unsold position remained, but that ETH long position had dropped from the previous outrageous 6,600 to 4,200. This is no longer just minor tweaks. Between 6,600 and 4,200 ETH, with 2,400 ETH missing in between. At a price of over $18 million, the nominal size of the position is less than $4 million. Just moments ago, they were struggling on the edge of life and death, but now the market has cut them down in a huge chunk. Currently, the outstanding position is 4,200 ETH long positions, with a 25x cross-margin ratio, an average opening price of $1,893.59, and a position value of about $7.88 million. The account equity is only $190,400, and the withdrawable balance is still zero. The most striking thing is the floating loss. Previously, he relied on a low average price to hold up a bit of unrealized profit, but now the official interface shows an unrealized loss of about $73,000. In other words, the state of comfort that just now was just on paper, which was just a comforting gesture, was gone. ETH slammed down, and Maji Big Brother's account slid from the edge of the cliff to halfway up the mountain, still clutching a rock, with hardly any path left beneath his feet. The current liquidation price is around $1868.23. At that time, ETH was priced around $1876 to $1877, just over $8 away from the liquidation line. Calculated as a percentage, it's about 0.4The macro framework for this week has basically been established. As long as the short-term rebound in energy prices is not too violent, it will basically follow this framework.
The core focus is whether the CPI data can "steal back" the expectations for a rate cut. Macro interest rates determine whether the money we hold is expensive or cheap, and also whether we dare to spend (invest).
If the CPI proves that the expectations for a rate cut will return, money will be cheap in the future, we will dare to spend, and this will drive the risk markets.
Conversely, if interest rate expectations are unfavorable and the risks in the US economy are overly exposed, then the risk markets will be relatively suppressed.
Therefore, as long as energy prices do not get out of control, the macro framework for this week is basically like this. The feedback to our trading is the choice between the start of a new trend or a further correction!
Currently, looking at market dynamics:
The bond market, the US dollar, gold, and US stocks have all shown "divergent" movements. Energy prices have rebounded in the short term, causing bond yields to rise temporarily, but the US dollar has weakened, gold remains strong, US stocks are under short-term pressure, and risk appetite is contracting.
At present, before decisive guidance emerges from macro data or the US-Iran situation, market pricing is still somewhat chaotic. Observe more! #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $SPCX is repeatedly tugging near the $135 mark, where the initial unlocking-induced concentrated suppression and short squeeze positions form a delicate balance.
A significant rebound has appeared on the chart, with previously concentrated short positions forced to cover due to less-than-expected selling pressure release.
This sentiment recovery is based on a brief restoration of risk appetite, but the upcoming unlocking of 319 million shares on August 20 poses the next liquidity test.
After the liquidity buying from short covering is fully absorbed, whether the subsequent supply of 1.4 billion shares will translate into actual selling pressure will directly determine if the price can gain substantial support.
If trading volume steadily expands above $135 and holds that level, short covering may push the price further into the $140 to $145 range, but a breakout with volume exhaustion would signal failure of this path.
If the price falls back below $135 and triggers a second wave of selling, risk-off sentiment could quickly push the price down to support levels at $130 or even $125; a rebound that quickly absorbs selling pressure could halt the decline.
When the market's re-pricing rate exceeds the supply increase speed, the chip structure imbalance originally caused by event risk will be broken, and the current short squeeze logic will be disproven.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is the direction of the 250 million shares position change in the short pool as the August 20 unlocking window approaches.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克 #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温$SNDK HAS THE STRONG BREAKTHROUGH STOPPED YET?
1. $SNDK price movement tonight (Monday, 08/10/2026)
Current trading price (Tonight's session): Around 1,242 USD / share.
Change: Up about +2.47% (up ~30 USD) compared to the previous closing price (1,212.21 USD).
Intraday range: Opening price from 1,203.41 USD and fluctuating between 1,194.01 USD – 1,278.75 USD.
2. Has the strong breakthrough of $SNDK stopped yet?
The short-term explosive uptrend has paused and is undergoing a deep correction, but the long-term trend still depends on the industry's outlook.
52-week high: $SNDK once set a record at 2,354.39 USD/share.
Current status: At around 1,240 USD, the stock has dropped more than 47% from its peak. Thus, the "hot" phase of continuous price pushing has temporarily paused to make way for a correction and accumulation phase. However, compared to the year's low, this stock still maintains significant growth thanks to the memory wave for AI infrastructure.
3. Why has the uptrend stalled?
Large-scale profit-taking wave: After the meteoric growth since the beginning of the year (when it was independently re-listed separated from Western Digital), investment funds and individual investors simultaneously took profits to secure gains as the stock hit the peak above 2,300 USD.
Impact of the semiconductor industry's cyclicality: The memory chip market (NAND Flash) is highly cyclical. When market sentiment fears a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending or short-term oversupply risks, memory stocks usually adjust very quickly.
Time needed to absorb valuation: The peak price has reflected almost all the most positive expectations. Current capital flow has become more cautious, waiting for breakthrough earnings results in upcoming quarters to decide whether to continue pushing the price up or not.
In summary: $SNDK has passed the initial meteoric rise phase and is currently in a cooling correction from the peak.
#CPIToResetFedBets
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn ETF funds are flooding back crazily this week, the strongest inflow since April, and CME hedge funds have also switched from short to long positions, with institutions putting real money into the market. Corporate institutions are still continuously hoarding BTC, and Bitcoin-related bills in the US are also progressing, painting a very bullish story.
But one point must not be overlooked: the veteran whale Strategy is dumping coins to cash out, selling over a thousand BTC, prioritizing stock buybacks instead of hoarding coins.
While off-exchange funds are rushing in wildly, old chips are cashing out and leaving. The more positive news piles up, the more cautious you should be about a sell-off when the good news materializes. Don’t get blinded by the flood of bullish messages; now is not the time to blindly charge ahead. Risk control should always come first. $BTC has reclaimed and is holding above $65,000 with quiet strength.
On August 10, Bitcoin traded steadily above that level—up roughly 3% on the week, after a soft U.S. jobs report eased near-term Fed rate-hike fears. $ETH tracked higher near $1,920, $SOL stood out with ~5% weekly gains near $77, and $BNB advanced modestly. $XRP lagged as the clear underperformer among majors.
The move was driven less by headlines and more by flows. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since April (combined ~$1.1B), led by BlackRock’s IBIT. A softer dollar and improved risk appetite helped, while the market largely ignored the CLARITY Act delay to September and minor Bitcoin-ecosystem noise.
Crypto continues to trade as a high-beta risk asset tightly linked to U.S. monetary expectations and institutional capital. When labor data softens and ETF demand returns, liquidity favors $BTC first, then rotates into liquid large-caps like $ETH and $SOL.
What to watch next?
July CPI lands Wednesday and remains the clearest catalyst. Sustained ETF inflows, dollar/yield moves, and positioning around the $65,800–$66,000 zone will decide whether this support holds or fades.If the foundation isn't solid, no matter how fancy the blueprints are, it's just a pile of scrap steel. I've been staring at the CLARITY construction plan for three months—the cloture motion submitted on August 8th was basically the load calculation report handed over by the structural engineer. But the congressional supervisors just took a holiday and ran off, dragging the load-bearing wall inspection all the way to September 15th. Now Polymarket prices the completion probability of this building at 21%. Five million dollars worth of concrete poured, and not even the basement has shown up.
In my view, this legislative delay is a classic case of "pile foundation deviation." The steel structure design of CLARITY itself is fine—it aims to clearly define fireproof zones between exchanges, DeFi, and mainstream tokens. But the core dispute is stuck on the load-bearing columns: officials' conflicts of interest in crypto are the rust on the rebar, consumer protection is the slab thickness, anti-fraud rules are the emergency exits, and yield products and stablecoins are the elevator shafts of the whole building—every floor is revising the blueprints, and the construction team and the owners' committee are arguing so much that even the safety nets aren't properly hung.
Work will resume in mid-September, and the first cloture vote will be the concrete compressive strength test. A 65% approval rate is the minimum strength grade; if not met, the entire floor must be redone. What’s more fatal than the vote itself is the problem exposed during this recess—the regulatory framework boundary has actually retreated to being decided by a single vote, like a skyscraper’s seismic rating waiting to be validated only after an earthquake. Even more ironically, the $XGOOGL stock is watching from the sidelines; its price curve reflects every delay in Washington like the glass curtain wall of the podium building—but no matter how beautiful the curtain wall is, it can’t stop the wind load tearing at the main structure.
Real architects understand that a white paper can be a rendering, but the legislative process is the construction log. Regulatory boundaries aren’t red lines drawn in CAD; they have to be snapped with chalk lines on the construction site. Right now, this building is still sitting in the foundation pit, waiting for the tower crane on September 15th to decide whether to pour concrete first or dismantle the formwork first. #clarityvotepushedtosep 2026.08.10 U.S. Stock Market Closing Scenario Forecast
$SNDK $SOXL $MU
Core Background: The market is broadly on hold, awaiting Wednesday's CPI inflation data, with major funds reluctant to take heavy directional bets; severe sector divergence, computing power shows resilience, storage sector faces the greatest profit-taking pressure.
Current Market: Opened slightly weaker, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, suppressing high-valuation storage chips; during the day, South Korea's SK Hynix surged then retreated, negative sentiment continued to affect Micron and SanDisk.
Three Closing Scenarios (ranked by probability)
Scenario 1: Fluctuate all day, close slightly down (highest probability)
Trend Path: Weak oscillation in early trading → a small rebound mid-session for repair, but rebound volume is low and highs gradually decline; difficult to recover all losses by close.
✅Market: Nasdaq closes slightly in the red;
✅Semiconductor sector:
Computing chips (NVIDIA, AMD) hold up; Micron MU and SanDisk SNDK remain weak;
✅SOXL: dragged by sector, oscillates downward;
Core Logic: Funds preemptively avoid CPI uncertainty, high-level storage chips sold on rallies, no incremental funds actively entering.
Scenario 2: Bottom out and rebound, close slightly up near flat (medium probability)
Trigger Conditions: U.S. Treasury yields continue to fall; storage sector shows clear support, no new lows.
Trend: Early panic selling release, bulls bargain at lows, oscillate upward, close slightly up.
Limitation: Hard to see a strong single-day surge, market cautious about aggressive moves, limited upward momentum.
Scenario 3: Continuous one-sided weakness, accelerated decline at close (low probability, risk scenario)
Trigger Signal: Nasdaq keeps hitting new lows, storage sector collectively lacks support, volume increases on decline.
Warning: If this occurs, it means funds anticipate a tougher CPI, tech stocks will face increased pressure in the following two days.
Targeted Forecast for Key Stocks
1. Micron MU / SanDisk SNDK (Storage)
Unlikely to see a strong rebound tonight. SK Hynix's daytime surge and profit-taking already signaled this; any rally likely triggers profit-taking.
Most probable trend: weak oscillation, rebound lacks strength.
2. SOXL (3x leveraged semiconductor long)
Pulled by sector divergence, large fluctuations;
⚠️In a weak oscillation market, leveraged funds suffer increased losses, avoid blindly bottom-fishing or holding positions.
Key Practical Monitoring Points
1. If Nasdaq holds the opening low continuously, worst case is narrow oscillation;
2. If Nasdaq breaks below the early low and fails to recover within half an hour, lean toward Scenario 3, bulls should be cautious;
3. Key observation: whether Micron can hold intraday lows, a barometer for storage sector strength.
Important Reminder
Tonight's closing trend will directly influence the opening sentiment of South Korea's SK Hynix and KR200 tomorrow and the day after.
Leverage trading should control position size; before CPI data arrives, avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves. @OKX中文 #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #OKX星球话题来啦 $SPCX
The reason for going long is also very simple
Elon Musk tweeted over the weekend, giving Starlink a vision of 2000 in annual revenue
At present, as long as the Starship reuse and v3 satellites succeed, it is highly likely to be achieved
So I think before it is completely disproved, spaceX is a very good speculation target
The first wave of unlocking a few days ago was the most dangerous, if this batch can't be dumped, 105 can be regarded as a solid bottom, the following unlocks will only affect the speed of the rise
Trading under these two assumptions, the current price close to the IPO is not expensive, chasing a rise is fine, if it goes wrong just accept it, pay for the belief 😁$BlockInfinity Evening Market Report · Major Shareholder Return Catalyst for Korean Storage, HBM Sector Sentiment Recovers but Real Concerns Remain
Risk Warning: For informational logic sorting only, does not constitute investment advice
🌍 Macro Industry Environment
Global AI computing power chain sentiment shows divergence, U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate at high levels, and the overseas tech earnings season is winding down. The storage sector sees a major event as the leading Korean storage companies plan large-scale shareholder return programs. The news directly drives a rebound in overseas storage stocks and also spills over sentiment to the domestic semiconductor storage sector. Samsung and SK Hynix stock prices receive short-term capital support.
A strong industry signal that might be overlooked: Korean companies plan shareholder return programs totaling nearly 100 trillion KRW, including about 40 trillion KRW in share buybacks, approximately 2% of total shares, with official announcement planned by the end of Q3. Translation: companies are preparing large stock buybacks to signal improved cash flow and focus on shareholder returns, alleviating market concerns about cash consumption from capital expenditures, representing a strong positive sentiment.
Reviewing this downturn, Korean storage stocks experienced a maximum short-term drawdown of about 15%, due to multiple negative factors: market rumors of Nvidia cutting HBM purchases and half-price pricing rumors (later clarified as false by JPMorgan); unclear shareholder return timelines combined with uncertainties from subsidiary IPOs; large-scale capital expenditure for capacity expansion raising concerns about cash flow depletion. After earnings reports, panic sentiment subsided, and selling pressure from Korean leveraged ETFs liquidations has been largely released. The market is awaiting a new pricing anchor.
Institutions collectively express optimistic expectations: BofA anticipates Samsung and SK Hynix to implement clear shareholder return plans; JPMorgan believes the worst phase of the industry is over and maintains overweight; Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Wolfe Research all issue bullish ratings with very high target prices.
Geopolitical and industry moves are notable: leading downstream customers are seeking diversified supply sources, and Apple is testing HBM-related products, indicating subtle changes in the supply chain landscape. The market spillover is tangible: share buybacks address valuation and confidence issues but do not mean HBM supply-demand is without variability. Diversified procurement by downstream customers introduces order allocation uncertainty, a pressure point to monitor continuously.
Current market essence: the storage sector is moving from "panic-driven valuation cuts" to sentiment recovery, driven by buyback policies rather than further product price surges. The positive factors are partially priced in and should not be simply extrapolated as continuous one-sided gains.
Operationally: in a sentiment recovery market, after positive news is realized, fluctuations will occur. Key points to follow up: the official buyback plan text at the end of Q3 and changes in HBM downstream orders and pricing.
Core Summary Points
1. ✅ Positive: Trillion-level buyback plan alleviates market cash flow concerns, liquidation selling pressure fully released, overseas investment banks collectively bullish, driving valuation recovery.
2. ⚠️ Risks: Downstream customer supply chain diversification causes variability in HBM order allocation; positives are expectation-driven, final details depend on the official plan announced at the end of Q3.
3. Transmission: Overseas storage sentiment warms, domestic storage and HBM-related industry chains receive sentiment catalysts, but fundamentals still depend on domestic manufacturers' order and profit realization. $SHOP USDT is showing one of the calmest moves on the screen. The perpetual contract is around 154.01 and is up only 0.19%. Compared with DOSUSDT's 7.97% surge and SKUUSDT's 7.43% decline, SHOPUSDT is practically flat. This suggests neither aggressive buyers nor sellers have established clear short-term dominance in the snapshot. Such low movement can mean consolidation, with traders waiting for a stronger catalyst or breakout before committing heavily. The important levels to watch are whether price begins expanding away from the current range and whether volume supports that move. For now, SHOPUSDT remains stable, but a quiet market can become active quickly once momentum arrives.
#OKXTraderVoices #SP500Eyes8000 #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn Each earnings report is more explosive than the last, yet stock prices keep crashing. SanDisk made a killing in Q4, but its stock got slashed at the knees; Hynix's HBM sold out, yet it plunged 19% in a single day; Micron's FQ4 guidance hit 50 billion, but it still got hammered 28% in July. So is this a golden opportunity or the peak of the cycle? I lean toward— the possibility of a pit hasn't been confirmed, but the signals of a peak keep coming one after another.
Let's look at three signals together.
First, Hynix itself has loosened up. On August 9, news from Korea revealed that Hynix was the first to slow down its HBM price hikes, starting to negotiate with customers at prices lower than competitors. Morgan Stanley still shouts a target price of 3.7 million KRW and says shareholder returns will exceed 100 trillion KRW by 2026, but the market smells something else: even HBM, the industry's tightest supply and highest margin product, is starting to lose pricing power. Adding to that, Huang Renxun cut Rubin Ultra's HBM configuration from 12 layers 384GB to 8 layers 192GB, slashing global HBM demand expectations by about 10%. Hynix just experienced a historic intraday 19% plunge on the Korean stock market, evaporating 308 trillion KRW in market value. Customers are cutting orders, prices are softening—do you really think the bull market is intact? I don't believe it.
Second, how long can Micron's independent rally last? Micron is indeed strong this round, with FQ3 actual revenue hitting 41.46 billion, gross margin 84.9%, FQ4 guidance directly at 50 billion, 86% gross margin, EPS 31, with an annualized EPS run-rate already above $120, HBM4 mass production, 2026 capacity sold out, data center revenue annualized run-rate breaking 100 billion—solid logic. But only three companies can make HBM, and Hynix has already started cutting prices. Can Micron stand alone? HBM is an oligopoly market; one player loosening up is a price signal. Also, Micron was hammered 28.7% in July; the current rebound looks more like an oversold correction, not a new high starting point.
Third, SanDisk's own numbers. Q4 revenue 8.97 billion (+372%), EPS 39.25, gross margin 84.6% all-time high, 93.9 billion backlog, 14 billion buyback—explosive in any sector. But the market doesn't buy it because Q1 guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, midpoint 10.55 billion, Wall Street wants 11.15 billion; gross margin guidance 83-85%, market expects 86.7%. Jefferies is more direct, cutting target price from $3000 to $1750, citing "the fastest phase of short-term profit growth may be over." The stock fell from 2354 to 1184, a knee cut; the rebound to 1250 hasn't even touched the downtrend line.
What about $BTC? Still playing dead around 65,000. Don't laugh, it's really a sentiment indicator. BTC lying flat near 65,000, knee cut from the peak to now. AI storage, HBM, crypto are essentially high-beta assets built on this round of liquidity + tech narratives. BTC not making new highs for two months means no incremental funds are entering from outside. Under this background, storage relying on oversold rebounds to reverse lacks strength. Conversely, if SanDisk really lights the sentiment on August 13, and Micron and Hynix follow, BTC as a high-beta asset will likely be dragged along—tied to the same rope.
So is the AI memory bull market still stable? My judgment: the long-term logic remains intact, but short-term cycle peak signals are accumulating.
The long-term logic is that AI's demand for storage is structural—HBM4, DDR5, enterprise SSD, NAND long-term contracts—not just hype, real cloud providers are lining up to buy. But the short-term problem is: the best expectations are maxed out; where can an 84% gross margin go higher? HBM prices are already softening; is the NAND turning point far off? Hynix's order cuts are the first crack, SanDisk's guidance missing expectations is the second, who's next?
August 13 is the day of truth. SanDisk's CEO and CFO will come out to defend; the market wants not how much Q4 earned, but the NBM long-term contract structure, response to Hynix's order cuts, and 2027 NAND market split. Bring out hard data—1200 is a golden pit, Micron, Hynix, and BTC can all catch a breath; vague visions mean this rebound is a desperate escape wave, and there will be more steps down.
Explosive earnings but falling stock prices, peers cutting prices, BTC lying flat—do you think this is a bull market continuation or the cycle knocking at the door? $BTC
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $SPCX This unlocking drama has just begun, and there's still a long queue behind it. The selling pressure keeps coming wave after wave, without a break.
Let's count the upcoming days on our fingers:
The batch of 911.5 million shares on August 6 was just an "appetizer." We held on, right? Don't rush—on August 20, about 319 million shares will follow closely. And that's not all; in September and October, nearly 700 million shares will be dumped each month! Combined, that's a lot more than the first batch. Plus, this nine-stage phased unlocking will continue until 2027, and Elon Musk and some major shareholders have lock-up periods lasting until June next year. When do you think this flood of chips will calm down?
Looking at the shorts, there are still over 250 million shares stuck in the short-selling pool; these guys haven't left cleanly. If insiders really start dumping shares in bulk after unlocking, shorts will get reinforcements and will smash the price more easily; but if the selling pressure isn't as fierce as expected, shorts might be forced to retreat—it's a tug of war with an uncertain outcome.
My honest opinion: The first round didn't crash and even went up, which is impressive, but don't take that as a talisman. The new supply of 1.4 billion shares over the next two months is the real test. At this price, you could say it's cheap, and over a longer period, maybe not expensive; but saying it's expensive is also reasonable since the chip tsunami hasn't receded yet. Anyway, I won't bet heavily at this critical moment. I'd rather grab a small seat and watch, waiting for the chip structure to stabilize before making a move. Rush in? Not in a hurry. Run away? Not panicking either. Patience is key; surviving the storm is what matters most.$BTC and $ETH have both hit bottom, and starting from August, they will oscillate upward. Those waiting for the final drop will eventually miss out.
Reason: From an emotional perspective,
the extreme panic low of this year's bear market appeared in February,
which is a bottom signal, as proven by BTC, SOL, and others.
From a timing perspective, the typical duration of a bear market is about one year.
BTC has been steadily declining without recovery since October 2025,
while ETH started its bear trend as early as August, falling continuously for half a year.
The acceleration in time has shortened the space, and from the retail consensus,
everyone believes there will be a final drop in October-November, which would be a perfect bottom-fishing opportunity.
According to the 80/20 rule, it is unlikely to follow this script.
I believe the bottom was reached in February, the absolute bottom in June-July, similar to the bottom in June 2022,
with six months of oscillation and the absolute bottom in November,
which means the market is about to start moving.🚨 Latest move by Michael Burry, the 2008 crash predictor:
"The SOXX rebound offers an attractive short entry point."
He added to his SOXX short position at $541.
My judgment:
This is Burry's third time adding to his semiconductor short. The previous two were around $643 and $536.
His bearish logic: SOXX's price-to-sales ratio is as high as 16 times, with valuation deviation even exceeding the 2000 internet bubble. He believes there is a bubble in AI chip demand.
📌 This time at $541, he is betting the rebound is over and the decline will continue. The Senate's failure to pass the Crypto Clarity Act before its summer recess is the story shaping sentiment this week. With only 51 of the needed 60 votes secured, the bill is now pushed to September 14, extending months of regulatory ambiguity around market structure and token classification.
This matters most for assets whose valuation thesis leans on institutional-grade clarity. $XRP, still defending the $1 level, has been the clearest laggard, unable to join the broader recovery in $BTC and $ETH. Tokenization and real-world-asset plays like $ONDO and infrastructure tokens such as $LINK are similarly sensitive, since institutional allocation often waits for defined rules before scaling exposure. Meanwhile $BTC and $ETH continue absorbing steady ETF inflows regardless, showing sentiment is bifurcating between "regulatory-dependent" and "regulatory-agnostic" assets.
The delay doesn't kill the thesis, it just pushes the timeline. $HYPE and $SUI, both benefiting from derivatives and L1 rotation narratives, remain less exposed to this specific catalyst.
With clarity now a September question, is the market underpricing the risk of another delay, or already positioned for it?#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解
SanDisk $SNDK tonight surged straight up to 1277, nearly a 100-point increase.
The volume-backed rebound at this level indicates that around 1200, there are buyers willing to take positions, and market sentiment is gradually recovering from pessimism.
The core catalyst is the Investor Day on August 13.
The biggest issue with the earnings report is the weak guidance; the market has been worried whether this is due to conservative management or if AI storage demand is truly cooling down.
The execution details of the 14 billion buyback plan have also not been clarified. Investor Day is a perfect window; this rally tonight is likely funds positioning early, betting on Investor Day delivering better-than-expected content.
The earnings report itself is not bad, with revenue of 8.97 billion, gross margin of 84.6%, and EPS of 39.25; the numbers alone show no flaws.
After nearly a week of digesting the weak guidance, the negative impact is gradually clearing.
The market is starting to reassess this earnings report, which also explains why there are buyers around 1200.
How far this rebound can go depends on two signals: whether 1200 can hold and whether Investor Day delivers better-than-expected content.
Before these two signals come out, treat this as a rebound and wait for confirmation before adjusting expectations.
$SKHYNIX $SPCX On the 13th, the CEO will explain three issues. Whether the gross margin of 84.6% can be maintained, whether long-term contracts can transform the company from a cyclical stock into "revenue-generating infrastructure," and the specific roadmap for the new HBF architecture and BI CS8 QLC.
This sharp decline is not due to a fundamental collapse but is caused by differing expectations triggering an emotional outburst. SanDisk sells storage, but the market now doesn't care about how much was earned before, but how long it can earn in the future. The 13th is the time to see if the leadership can provide this answer.
Remember, whether SanDisk can revive this time also depends on the 13th, how the leadership responds, and whether they can provide a satisfying answer for investors! $BTC $ETH $SNDK
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn 第一波拉升总是最抓眼球的，但真正决定胜负的，是接下来的趋势走向，它才告诉你资金究竟在往哪里去。盯着最近24小时的资金流向看久了，我对那些短期涨幅最猛的token反而没什么兴趣了，真正让我在意的是——谁能在涨完之后，把趋势稳稳拿在手里。一根+15%的大阳线，如果第二天量能立刻萎缩、价格直接回吐全部涨幅，那这根K线就只是过眼云烟，毫无意义。📉 所以，下面这些名字才值得你放进观察清单：⚡ $BICO $MMT $BEAT $SPCX $CAP $UB。它们的问题不在于“会不会涨”，而在于——新流入的资金，是在持续进场，还是进了一下就跑了？ 回头看大盘的背景：BTC和ETH依然维持着相对平稳的姿态，市场并没有出现那种剧烈的大范围冲击。这种“稳而不烈”的状态，恰恰给选择性轮动提供了极好的土壤。资金不需要等大盘全面爆发才能行动，它可以聚焦在特定的赛道里反复试探、快速换手，耐心等真正属于自己的机会。 🟢 真正引起注意的目标：$BICO $CAP $AAVE $ONDO $LINK $TAO $WLD 这些币有一个共同特质：价格上涨时伴随成交量同步放大，回调时量能却明显收缩，K线图上呈现出清晰的资