#BTCOptionsExpiryTest

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PCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed. Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed. That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public. Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017. The hedge trade is broadening: · August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025 · Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B · GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk. Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry: · About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC · 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83 · Max pain is near $68K · $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K. PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry? #PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows

BTC Pulls Back, ETH Holds Strong $BTC is trading around $79K after testing $81K, with $80K–$82K remaining key resistance. Profit-taking is increasing, but spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $314.3M in inflows on August 25, extending seven consecutive positive sessions. $ETH is holding near $2.5K and continues showing relative strength. Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $179.8M on August 25, marking seven straight sessions of inflows. The pullback may be more about absorbing supply than signaling reversal.

$BTC BTC $78,800 — dip or gift? 3 catalysts in 48hrs: Nvidia earnings tonight + $6.4B options expiry Fri + Fed chair speaks. ETFs +~$2B in 5 days. OI down 11% — spot-driven rally. Bears see top. Bulls see gold. Answer soon. ⚠️ NFA. DYOR.

$BTC $ETH $SOL This Friday (8/28 16:00 Beijing time), Deribit has 81,700 BTC options expiring, with a notional value of about $6.4 billion. This week’s volatility ceiling is fully maxed out. The bullish positions fill the screen, with huge chips locked at strike prices 75,000 (236 million) and 80,000 (157 million); but the maximum pain point#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

🟠$BTC recent strength isn't happening in isolation. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly attracted nearly $2B in just five trading sessions, marking one of the strongest weekly inflow periods since October 2025. That's a meaningful development. The important part isn't simply the size of the inflow. It's the fact that institutional demand is showing up consistently while BTC is already trading at elevated levels. 🏦 WHY THIS MATTERS ETF flows give us a different view of the market. Price can move because of leverage, short covering or speculative positioning. But persistent spot ETF inflows indicate that capital is being allocated through regulated investment vehicles. That doesn't guarantee Bitcoin goes straight up. Institutions can accumulate while expecting volatility. They can also have a much longer time horizon than retail traders. But it does tell us that demand hasn't disappeared. 👀 THE NEXT TEST Now I want to see what happens if BTC stops moving vertically. If $BTC consolidates or pulls back modestly while ETF inflows remain strong, that would be even more constructive. It would suggest larger players are willing to absorb weakness rather than only chase breakouts. On the other hand, if inflows suddenly slow while BTC struggles at resistance, that would be a signal to become more cautious. So I'm not interested in blindly chasing the headline. I'm watching the trend in capital flows. Nearly $2B in five sessions is significant. The bigger question is whether that demand continues. Because one strong week can create excitement. Persistent institutional accumulation can create a much stronger foundation for the next phase of the Bitcoin market.

Risk/Reward – The Story Behind the Price Zone $BTC is approaching the $80K level, with support at $78.5K–$78.7K below. If it breaks above $80K, the next target could be $81.28K. $ETH is also consolidating just below the $2,515–$2,547 zone. At this point, there is no need to guess which one will rise faster; simply watch to see which breaks out first. Given the current R, waiting for a breakout or retest is safer than rushing to chase the price.

Market snapshot: Crypto enters pullback phase after sharp rally. BTC trades between $78,000‑79,000, down 1%‑1.27% in 24h. It hit an intraday peak of $81,237 yesterday, a fresh high since mid‑May, before fading lower Despite short‑term correction, Bitcoin books a 23%‑24% weekly gain, its strongest weekly performance since 2023. This is typical profit‑taking consolidation after a massive run‑up. Watch support absorption & volume profile to tell whether this is mid‑trend consolidation or a near。

$BTC and Ethereum, the current market looks like a freshly brewed cup of tea a bit hot, but full of aroma. Starting with BTC, it took a breather today, dropping about 1.3% in 24 hours, which seems like a shoulder rub and relaxation after the recent surge. But looking at the weekly chart, it has risen nearly 14% this week, showing a confidence that "the bull isn't gone yet." From the capital flow perspective, yesterday the ETF saw a net inflow of over $300 million, #PCEToJacksonHole

Bitcoin getting rejected around $81K is worth watching. But I'm not buying the“$50K is next” narrative yet $BTC pushed above $81K and ran directly into the 50-week moving average before falling back below $80K. Technically, that's a warning. But one rejection doesn't automatically turn an uptrend into a bear market. The part I find more interesting is what's happening underneath the price Spot Bitcoin ETF have now recorded six consecutive days of inflows, with roughly $337M entering on Aug 24.

$BTC daily close failed to hold above the 80,000 psychological level, with an early morning low spike near 77,650. The 80,000 level has shifted from support to short-term resistance; if the rebound cannot quickly reclaim this level, there remains a risk of continued downward momentum. Key support to watch below is the 76,200-77,200 range. The 24-hour trading volume is about 8.8 billion USDT, slightly shrinking compared to the previous day, with no significant spread of selling momentum.