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本周，市场最重要的事件即将到来——美联储利率决议。
我认为，这次会议最大的看点，不是会不会降息，而是美联储会释放什么样的信号。
从目前市场预期来看，美联储大概率会维持利率不变，这一点已经基本被市场消化。
真正决定比特币、美股以及黄金短期走势的，很可能是会后的声明以及鲍威尔新闻发布会。
为什么这次会议如此重要？
过去一周，美国公布的CPI、PPI数据都低于市场预期，市场重新开始交易降息预期。
与此同时，比特币ETF持续吸引资金流入，机构配置热情依然较高。
因此，现在市场最关心的问题已经不是”这次会不会降息”。
而是：
• 美联储是否会承认通胀正在改善？
• 是否会释放未来几个月政策可能转向的信号？
• 对经济增长和就业市场的最新判断是什么？
这些内容，都可能直接影响市场对未来流动性的预期。
对比特币意味着什么？
如果美联储整体措辞偏鸽派，承认通胀继续降温，并暗示未来政策有望逐步放松，那么风险资产情绪有望进一步改善，比特币可能继续受到资金青睐。
如果措辞依然偏鹰派，强调通胀风险仍然存在，或者暗示高利率将维持更长时间，市场短期可能出现波动，比特币也可能面临一定回调压力。
我的建议：
不要急着在利率决议公布前重仓押注方向。
历史经验表明，重大宏观事件前后，市场波动通常会明显放大，价格可能先快速拉升或下跌，再根据发布会内容重新选择方向。
对于交易者来说，与其猜测结果，不如等待市场确认方向，再顺势跟随。
这次美联储会议，利率本身或许没有悬念，但鲍威尔释放的信号，很可能决定未来几周全球风险资产的走势。真正影响比特币的，不是利率是否不变，而是市场对未来流动性的预期是否发生变化。#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 $BTC #美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
Market expectations have undergone a significant shift! Previously, widespread rumors spread that the U.S. would impose a blanket restriction on open-source AI solutions, causing the probability to decline rapidly. Nvidia led several tech companies in issuing a joint open letter strongly opposing it, while Silicon Valley startups collectively voiced pressure on regulators, significantly cooling panic over tightening policies. Let's talk about the underlying logic and market impact.
Previously, closed-source AI companies continued lobbying regulators, calling for restrictions on open weighted models, and the market once worried about the introduction of strict bans. However, the recent situation has reversed, with giants like Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft jointly signing an open letter warning that premature restrictions on open-source AI will weaken the overall innovation competitiveness of the United States; A large number of small and medium-sized AI companies have followed suit, making resistance to one-size-fits-all control measures sharply increased.
Key reminder: The expected decline ≠ complete abandonment of regulation only greatly reduces the likelihood of strict bans, and the moderate regulatory framework is still being advanced.
1. Risk premiums in the technology sector are declining
Ban fears have subsided, easing market concerns about tightening AI industry policies. The stable development of the open-source ecosystem means that AI adoption is expected to accelerate, the long-term demand logic for computing power is consolidated, and this will benefit risk appetite in the US semiconductor and AI hardware sectors. The warming of tech sentiment has indirectly provided emotional support for highly volatile risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
2. The long-term contest between the two major camps in Silicon Valley has continued
The market must recognize the root causes of disagreement:
Open source camp: Open source models expand AI application scenarios. No matter what model runs, GPU computing power is needed, leading to long-term hardware demand;
Closed-source camp: Concerned that low-cost open-source models will impact their commercialization returns, they continue to push for control.
The rivalry between the two major factions will not end, and regulatory news will continue to surface, which could easily trigger short-term market volatility.
3. Distinguish between short-term emotional catalysts and long-term main themes
This news is a secondary positive trend at the industry level and is unlikely to drive mainstream coins to a major trend rally on their own. The medium- to long-term trends of BTC and ETH remain dominated by expectations of Fed rate cuts and the CLARITY crypto bill.
Sector differentiation remains unchanged: computing power infrastructure targets continue to benefit; Themes driven solely by concept speculation without real-world scenarios remain under valuation pressure.
Personal Market Analysis:
In the short term, don't rely solely on this news to chase the rally; be wary of sentiment realizing after positive news materializes.
Continue to track two key signals:
(1) Official U.S. Subsequent Draft Regulation Text;
(2) Can the US US computing power sector maintain its upward trend?
From a medium- to long-term perspective, continuous expansion of the open-source AI ecosystem is the main direction, and the computing power industry chain repeatedly presents strategic opportunities. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting will kick off early Thursday morning, and every wording adjustment in the policy statement will have a huge impact on the crypto market. A somewhat accommodative outlook can drive the market higher; if the tone is hawkish, Bitcoin has a chance to quickly pull back and test 62,000. At this stage, various economic data are tugging at each other. Expectations of easing geopolitical pressure have pushed oil prices lower, and market concerns over persistently rising inflation have cooled. However, initial jobless claims data performed better than expected, and the labor market remained strong. The Fed faces a very prominent challenge: rate cuts easily trigger a resurgence of inflation, and maintaining high rates also carries the potential risk of economic downturn. Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release their earnings reports successively on Wednesday and Thursday. Currently, funding is no longer just empty AI development stories; the focus is on corporate capital expenditure planning and when related investments translate into actual profits. If earnings guidance falls short of market expectations, the Nasdaq will be the first to come under pressure, making it difficult for Bitcoin to break out of its standalone rally. Immediately following the policy meeting, FTX will begin a $900 million compensation payment on July 31. The final flow of these funds is highly uncertain. Some victims permanently exit after receiving the funds, while others return to the market. The proportion of these two will affect subsequent market liquidity. Currently, BTC holds above the 65,000 level, with the Panic and Greed Index reaching 30. Compared to previous figures, market panic has somewhat eased, but investors still have concerns. This can be understood as a short-term extreme downturn risk$BTC Going up under passive buying. Spot CVD is trending down, BUT price is up. Most likely someone big is TWAP selling into chasing bids.
Also, shorts closing helped to push the price. Look how OI from Friday that came at the lows has been wiped out.ETH DIDN'T DIE. WE DID.
We never got a real bull market.
We got Saylor buying $1.28B of BTC and CT rotating into SOL memecoin trenches.
Retail rugged itself.
Now look at the flows:
July 2026:
$ETH ETFs: $5.41B in inflows. Best month ever
$BTC ETFs: $175M in outflows
Last week:
BlackRock ETHA: +$254M in 1 day
ETH futures OI: $10B+ first time ever
Corporate treasuries: 17 firms now hold 1.75M ETH = $7.53B
33% of all ETH is now staked.
ETH TVL: $41B. But 24h NFT volume: $648K
The "world computer" became the "institutional settlement layer".
Stablecoins. RWAs. Payments. All building on ETH.
The institutions love ETH.
The people left.
Ironic and sad.
NFA.
#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch #波动雷达: Monitor currency fluctuations
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 0.42, with a historical average of 1.7—a difference of more than four times. The market is indeed in an undervalued range, but analysts have not called for "bottom-fishing"; instead, they added: there have been no signals of surrender yet.
What is the MVRV Z-Score?
Simply put, it measures the degree of deviation from Bitcoin's current price relative to the average cost of all holders. Higher values mean more expensive; lower values mean cheaper. 0.42 means Bitcoin is indeed not expensive, but historically, it is the true cycle bottom, and this indicator usually only counts when it drops to negative territory. The fact that it's still above zero means it's not yet in the extreme panic state where "everyone is cutting their losses."
Another signal is also confirming this judgment.
$BTC 7, the realized profit and loss have turned positive, currently about $239 million. This means that those who sold in the past seven days have generally made money, and on-chain selling pressure is easing. But relief does not mean a reversal; it only indicates that the most feared wave of selling may have already passed and buying has not truly returned.
The market is now stuck in an awkward position.
Cheap is really cheap, but lacks a reason to make everyone rush in. Oil prices remain high, the FOMC has yet to be finalized, and the CLARITY Act hangs in the air. A Fed that doesn't provide signposts, plus a pile of unresolved macro variables and no clear catalyst, underestimation can last a long time.
My view:
The indicator says "it's worth watching," but it's not yet "time to rush." The overestimated range ≠ immediately rebounded. Wait for the FOMC to take place, for oil prices to stabilize, and for a real catalyst to emerge. Before the direction is clear, not increasing positions is the bottom line. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
I think July will most likely remain inactive, but the post-meeting stance will be more hawkish than everyone expected.
The real rate hike window is in September, and this meeting is a precaution. Previously, the market was still fantasizing about rate cuts within the year, but now oil prices and employment have both exceeded expectations, completely shattering expectations for easing. So don't trade with outdated rules. High interest rates will last longer than everyone thinks, and growth assets will face short-term pressure.
Because in terms of data: CME's latest pricing for July shows a 63.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, and a 36.3% chance of a 25bp hike—this rate hike probability was only 13% a week ago, but has nearly tripled in just a few days. More importantly, the probability of a rate hike in September has already surged to 55%, and the market is basically assuming action will be made at the next meeting.
Brent crude surpassed $100, maxing out the risk of an inflation rebound; Last week, initial jobless claims were only 187,000, the lowest since April, and the job market is tighter than expected. Both Fed key indicators are strengthening simultaneously, so there is no real reason to cut rates; instead, there is ample confidence to raise rates.
So I think holding steady in July is highly likely, but hawkish stances won't escape. The rate hike window in September officially opens, so controlling positions and keeping enough cash to handle volatility is the safest approach.ETH staking data sends a positive signal—is Ethereum undergoing a new round of value revaluation?
Recently, I've noticed an interesting phenomenon: Ethereum validator exit queues have dropped to zero, and staking can be unstaked without waiting; Meanwhile, about 2.48 million ETH are lining up for staking.
Many people may worry that the "exit queue has been cleared to zero" means funds are leaving, but I believe more attention should be paid to changes in the combination of capital flows. The return of exit channels to normal indicates healthier network liquidity, and the proactive staking of a large amount of ETH reflects that holders still have confidence in Ethereum's long-term value.
Additionally, according to DefiLlama data, several Ethereum ecosystem protocols have recently shown net inflows, and DeFi activity is rebounding. Whether it's staking demand or ecosystem capital accumulation, both indicate that ETH remains one of the core foundational assets in the crypto market.
I believe the market may still be affected by sentiment in the short term, but what truly determines ETH's long-term value are network usage, ecosystem growth, and institutional fund recognition.
As more ETH is locked in staking and ecosystem applications, market supply decreases, which may form stronger value support in the long run.
Ethereum's story has never been just about price, but about the ongoing expansion of the entire on-chain economic system.📉 FIFA chọn $AVAX để triển khai hạ tầng blockchain, nhưng vì sao AVAX vẫn giảm hơn 70% từ đỉnh?
Nhiều người cho rằng việc FIFA hợp tác với Avalanche sẽ giúp $AVAX tăng mạnh. Nhưng thực tế, giá lại không phản ứng như kỳ vọng.
😱Những điểm đáng chú ý:
📌 Tin tốt không đồng nghĩa với giá tăng.
Thị trường thường phản ánh kỳ vọng trước khi tin tức chính thức được công bố.
📌 Nguồn cung vẫn tiếp tục được mở khóa.
Áp lực cung tăng khiến giá khó bứt phá nếu lực mua không đủ mạnh.
📌 Dòng tiền ngắn hạn chưa quay lại.
Dữ liệu cho thấy dòng tiền lớn vẫn chưa có dấu hiệu tích lũy rõ ràng, trong khi áp lực bán vẫn hiện hữu.
📌 Long đang chiếm ưu thế.
Khi quá nhiều nhà đầu tư cùng nghiêng về một phía, thị trường luôn tiềm ẩn nguy cơ xuất hiện một cú quét thanh khoản nếu giá giảm.
FIFA là một đối tác lớn và là tín hiệu tích cực cho hệ sinh thái Avalanche. Tuy nhiên, giá AVAX vẫn phụ thuộc vào dòng tiền, cung cầu và tâm lý thị trường, chứ không chỉ dựa vào một tin tức hợp tác.
Công nghệ tốt chưa chắc tạo ra lợi nhuận. Trong crypto, dòng tiền mới là yếu tố quyết định giá.
Bài viết thể hiện góc nhìn phân tích cá nhân, không phải lời khuyên đầu tư. #QuantumDeadline2031BTC Changxin went public, it feels a bit like SPCX, sucking blood from the entire big A-share market. I didn't dare to participate, the biggest reason being that the big A-share market is damn T+1.
Guess what happens next?
Because of low circulation, it's very likely that the market cap will fomo rise to over 4 trillion in the first two days after the opening, but going higher than that would be too much fomo. Hynix still has a better cost-performance ratio.
This kind of hot opening is played by few; I only participated in Xizhi Technology and SPCX openings, and managed to sneak a little profit because of T+0 trading, allowing me to take a little and leave.
Later, after Changxin sucks blood from the entire big A-share market, I will gradually bottom-fish the STAR 50, hold STAR 50 for the long term, choosing to believe in China's technology.
To be honest, the government is the most powerful. The Hefei government holds more than 30% of Changxin. Just one Changxin equals more than ten years of Hefei's fiscal revenue. This kind of situation may become more common in the future. Previously, the government relied on land sales for fiscal revenue, but there may be a shift in thinking going forward.
Believe in the nation's fortune, believe in technology. Of course, I also bought a lot of old Deng stocks as a hedge.... 其实，@BitMEX 和 @BitMartExchange 关门的性质不一样，不可混为一谈。
BitMEX 更像是在有序清理业务，该平仓的平仓，该提现的提现，最后体体面面地走完最后一程。这叫倒闭，人家没做恶，至少大家还能好聚好散。
但 BitMart 目前大概率已经无法正常偿付用户资产，大量提现迟迟无法到账。
如果最终确认资金不足，无法兑付用户的提现导致很多用户资金受损，那就是跑路，最后只会不欢而散。#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
Ban on open-source AI expectations sharply declined: not that regulation is unregulated, but that bans are no longer effective. Around July 20, the White House was still reassessing the ban on Chinese open-source models, but the situation changed drastically in less than a week:
On July 24, 25 U.S. giants including Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, IBM, and Hugging Face jointly issued an open letter, bluntly declaring: Do not ban open weight models; banning them is equivalent to handing the ecosystem back to a handful of closed-source giants
Nearly 200 Silicon Valley startups co-branded earlier: cutting off China's open source = startup costs exploding = disguised supply to OpenAI/Anthropic
The AI executive order signed by the White House in June centers on a 30-day security evaluation window + voluntary government-enterprise collaboration—not a ban on publication, nor a ban on downloading. The new framework ideas leaked in mid-July are more practical: using Chinese open-source models as the capability benchmark, rapid release for those not over-the-limit, strict review for over-the-limits, essentially replacing bans with tiering.
Therefore, the narrative of the U.S. completely banning open-source AI has been crushed by three forces over the past two weeks:
1. Industry votes with their feet (Chinese models on OpenRouter account for nearly 60% of US enterprise token usage, banning Silicon Valley and shutting down first)
2. Within the government, there are already advocates for the US to open up and prioritize authority. Sacks/Kratsios argue that the US must win in open source, not just shut down open source.
3. Limited administrative resources, prioritize computing power export controls + advanced model security reviews, and globally downloadable open-source weights—bans won't stop them
What does this mean for the crypto world? Previously, AI x Crypto was suppressed by the black swan ban on valuations, and now this discount layer is being withdrawn:
For DeAI/privacy computing/decentralized computing power like FET, PHA, TAO, RNDR, and GRASS, the logic shifts from regulatory extinction risk back to a practical competition.
But don't get carried away: expectations fall and ≠ all the positive news has been exhausted. The market will follow a structured market of tiered regulation + US liberalization and weight replacement, and miscellaneous AI coins will still be washed out.
In a market with shrinking volume, the AI sector is experiencing emotional recovery rather than a trend reversal; waiting for a pullback to confirm is more comfortable than chasing a bullish candle.
My judgment: banning open source will drop from a 40% probability to below 10%, but the long-term main theme is to manage cutting-edge closed-source + card hash power exports. The market is leading the way in the wave of policy extremism, not the disappearance of AI regulation.$ETH is quite firm when it's tough, and soft when it's soft. Take today, for example: it pushed north to 2000, but the hard ones weren't good, and the pullback was only a slight pullback. Everyone has been hoping to break through 2000 these days, but the resistance is still quite strong—unless it can hold above 1980. Moreover, news has been flying everywhere lately, with the 7.30 FOMC meeting being especially crucial. Trump has paused military strikes against Iran, and the US and Iran have begun negotiations through Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, making progress. International oil prices have plunged more than 5%. The logic of "Middle East conflict + oil prices breaking 100 + rate hike expectations" that previously suppressed risk assets was weakened, capital flowed back into crypto, and BTC/ETH rebounded simultaneously. • ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $103.9 million last week, marking three consecutive weeks of positive inflows, and the largest of the four ETFs (BTC only $33.79 million) • On July 27, ETH ETFs saw net inflows of tens of millions of dollars for several consecutive days, while BTC ETFs saw net outflows during the same period—institutions rotated internally, tilting their holdings toward increasing ETH holdings • With staking exit queues zeroed, over 2.5 million ETH queued to enter, and a staking rate of 33.6% hit a record high, Supply is structurally compressed. ETH surged strongly northward today, hitting 1982.29, directly wiping out the upper short stop loss and facing huge selling pressure. For the remaining 2.5 days, it will keep oscillating within this range. The earliest it could exceed 2000 by the 29th, but it will soon be pushed back down. If it can't break through, it will have to return to 1850Long-term small gains with occasional big losses versus long-term small losses with occasional big profits: which strategy should you choose?One of the biggest problems with traditional international forex trading is that funds are not settled immediately after the transaction is completed.
Chainlink collaborated with several multinational banks to promote Project Pangea,
Research is underway to shorten the settlement time in the international foreign exchange market to T+0.
That is, transactions and settlements are usually completed on the same day whenever possible.
If this model is truly implemented, it will reduce more than just waiting time,
It also includes counterparty risk, capital occupation, and complex backend reconciliation costs.
LINK's next battle is not just about the crypto oracle market,
Instead, it is the location of data and settlement infrastructure after traditional financial assets enter the chain.
$LINK$OKB, its performance was relatively flat amid broad market gains. As the platform token of OKX Exchange, OKB's value mainly depends on usage within the OKX ecosystem and market demand. Recently, OKB's performance has been driven more by overall market sentiment—when the market weakens, funds flee from the exchange sector, putting pressure on it, while when the market recovers, funds cluster together to buy platform tokens for safe havens. OKX previously conducted large-scale token burns, significantly reducing the supply of OKB and providing long-term price support from the supply side. In addition, OKX's ongoing expansion and institutional collaborations have also brought positive sentiment to OKB. Against the backdrop of current geopolitical easing, if market risk appetite continues to rise, OKB, as the platform token of a leading exchange, is expected to benefit from increased overall trading activity. In the short term, attention should be paid to a breakout near $85. If the market continues to strengthen, OKB is likely to follow the rebound.: Today's SNDK rally is largely a correction of last Friday's sharp drop in the US stock market SanDisk/Hynix.
Tonight, the US stock market opens (21:30 Beijing time). If tech stocks cannot maintain their strength, SNDK futures are very likely to weaken early on $SNDK #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
我是刺哥，本周金融市场迎来真正的超级周。美联储利率决议、微软Meta亚马逊财报、FTX第五轮赔付，三件事挤在同一周，每一个都能单独引爆盘面，现在叠加在一起，方向会在周四凌晨集中释放。
美联储决议，加息概率从13%飙到38%
一周前市场还稳坐钓鱼台，加息概率只有13%。现在CME数据显示加息25个基点的概率已经飙到38%，利率互换市场数据也差不多，加息概率约30%，维持不变约70%。经济学家那边倒是全数预期按兵不动。官员和市场出现这么大的背离，最后总有一方要认错。
油价回落是最大的变数。美伊停火预期让WTI跌到85美元，地缘风险溢价快速消退，通胀担忧有所缓解。但高盛分析师明确指出，这次决策的影响很大程度上取决于美联储主席沃什如何阐述决定及未来政策路径。
科技巨头财报，AI烧钱大战迎来大考
微软周三披露财报，市场预期营收874亿美元，同比增长14.3%。全年资本开支规划达1900亿美元，上季度资本开支319亿美元，自由现金流已从257亿大幅下滑至158亿。Azure能否维持40%左右的增速，是证明AI投入合理性的关键。
Meta同样周三公布，2026年资本支出预测已上调至最高1450亿美元。美银预计Q2营收606亿美元、每股收益7.50美元，均超市场预期。核心广告业务强劲，但AI支出回报率是市场最大的问号。
亚马逊周四压轴，市场预期营收1962亿美元，同比增长17%。2026年资本支出已瞄准约2000亿美元，自由现金流甚至可能转负。AWS增速和AI投资回报率是左右市场情绪的核心变量。
谷歌和特斯拉上周已经用盘后暴跌给市场打了样。谷歌资本开支超预期，盘后跌超4%；特斯拉利润失色，单周跌近20%。微软Meta亚马逊如果也给出“营收不错但烧钱更猛”的组合，科技股可能二次承压。如果云业务增速超预期、资本开支指引温和，那整个AI硬件链条都会被重新定价。
FTX第五轮赔付，9亿美元7月31日启动
FTX将于7月31日启动第五轮债权人分派，金额约9亿美元。部分债权人可获得103%到120%的索赔回收。自破产以来总计已偿还近100亿美元。9亿美元中相当一部分会回流到加密市场，形成买盘支撑。
BTC怎么走
65922的空单逻辑依然成立。美联储加息概率从13%飙到38%，科技巨头财报存在不及预期风险，这些都是短期的压制因素。但如果美联储按兵不动且表态偏鸽，叠加财报超预期和FTX赔付资金回流，BTC可能快速测试65700到66000的空头清算区。
多空对决本周见分晓。拿住仓位，别在数据出来前重仓赌方向。刺哥说完了，你细品。$BTC $ETH $DOGE After squatting at the site of the ruins for a long time, you'll realize that every dynasty that undertook massive construction and forcibly requisitioned gold from across the land to build temples often left only two things for future generations: either an immortal miracle or a towering, mountain-heavy tombstone.
Today's new stories will be tomorrow's unearthed artifacts. Each wave of frenzy claimed to be unprecedented; when they opened the stratigraphic records, they were all photocopies.
Take a look at the recently unearthed "stratum fragments": Google's massive capital spending led to a massive price crash, and Tesla plunged from its deepest cliff since 2022. Now, it's the turn of the three massive computing power empires—Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—to stand in the test of history. Explorers and gold seekers across the market are watching this week's capital expenditure guidelines from these three giants—everyone anxiously awaits a judgment: will the real silver being swallowed up be forging the Tower of Babel for the next era, or hollowing out the empire's granaries?
In archaeology, we never heed priestly prophecies, only recognizing carbon-14 dating and physical stratigraphic evidence. The true growth of cloud business and the efficiency of monetizing computing power commercialization are the only evidence to test whether this $10 billion arms race is a "real cash grab" or a "mirage." If you can't provide sufficient proof of output, those giant data centers that have risen from the ground are nothing more than the ruins of heated capacitors dug out from sand and dust decades later.
Even more intriguing, this struggle over imperial fortune had long broken the traditional law of day and night alternation. In the never-ending digital night market, tokenized US stock stocks represented by $XAMZN have achieved seamless 24/7 circulation. Even late at night when traditional markets are closed, people still use stablecoins to engage in real-time debates and price pricing for the fate of these business giants. $XAMZN's volatility is like early warning relics unearthed underground, transmitting anxiety and turmoil in the main board market to every nerve ending of on-chain assets without delay.
All the frenzy and collapses in history ultimately cannot escape the first law of stratigraphy: strata do not lie, and time will settle everything. As storms sweep past ancient dunes, the digital tokens traded late at night and the vast bills of computing power have already carved dense marks of greed and fear into the layers of history. #AIEarningsWatch ETH climbed from $1846 all the way to $1982, surging nearly $140 over the weekend. Some longs have made some losses, but those who cut losses at 1850 probably regret it deeply. The direct trigger for the rebound is clear—a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East. After 13 consecutive nights of airstrikes against Iran, the U.S. military suspended its strikes on the evening of July 24, and Iran's previous nightly retaliations ceased. A senior Iranian official made it clear: as long as the U.S. stops, Iran will stop too. The temporary cooling of geopolitical risks has had immediate effects. Oil prices plummeted more than 5% to around $96.7, with safe-haven funds flowing back from the dollar into risk assets, making ETH one of the biggest beneficiaries. Market concerns about worsening inflation have temporarily eased, which in turn dampened expectations for aggressive rate hikes, giving crypto assets some breathing room in the short term. But don't celebrate too soon—how long you can breathe depends entirely on the Fed's early Wednesday morning meeting. Currently, the market pricing in this rate decision has become extremely divided. According to CME federal funds futures data, the market is betting on a 25 basis point rate hike in July with a probability of about 36%-38%, compared to 13% a week ago. On the other hand, a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists shows that all expect rates to remain unchanged. Why are there such big divisions? Fed Chair Wash has completely abandoned "forward-looking guidance," making it clear that he will no longer communicate policy direction with the market in advance, and that every meeting is a "real-time" decision. PGIM's chief U.S. economist bluntly stated that the meeting was "almost fifty-fifty." Even more life-threateningChina's breakthrough in artificial intelligence is stimulating the US-led high-tech blockade and the "island economy" model, breaking the dollar siphon — this is also the issue the US government worries most! Previously, on July 19, I wrote that China's continuous breakthroughs in artificial intelligence are challenging the U.S. blockade on cutting-edge AI technology, putting greater pressure on US Q2 earnings reports! The core of my view is not that China's AI has completely caught up with the US, but rather that the powerful production capacity and high efficiency expectations brought by China's breakthroughs are breaking the US tech blockade. Especially in the global mass AI market, which is cost-sensitive, allows for local deployment, pursues sufficient use rather than absolute strength, and has low regulatory barriers, this will accelerate market transformation and bring more challenges to US tech companies! 1. Changxin Technology's boss: The rise in market value essentially represents a breakthrough in China's AI supply. 1. In the AI era, computing power competition has shifted from the GPU frontline to the storage field. 2. What did the market focus on in the past? It's NVIDIA's GPUs, TSMC's advanced packaging, Broadcom's switching chips are optical modules, and now another has been added—DRAM/HBM and other storage components. 3. GPU computing power + memory capacity + bandwidth are the three essential elements for AI training. China has previously tried various ways to break technological blockades through amplification, while Changxin Technology represents a breakthrough on the storage side. 4. Changxin's listing means the capital market is beginning to reprice the domestic AI hardware chain, accelerating breakthroughs and financing capabilities in the industry chain. This means the AI supply chain is no longer possibleIf your impression of Solana is still stuck at "ten thousand Dogecoins popping up every day, and all the animals in the zoo are released once," then you might need to update your version. Solana's Q2 report left me a bit dazed—the transaction volume of tokenized on-chain equity surged 114% quarter-on-quarter, reaching $4.8 billion. Note, it's not a full year, but a quarter, and it's a real equity asset, not some Shiba Inu or Toad Coin. Compared to the first quarter, this figure has quadrupled. It's like the small skewer stall downstairs at your house selling skewers every day, suddenly hanging a Michelin sign and starting private dinners—the atmosphere is moving a bit fast. From Zoo to Wall Street Transformation: In the past, the market's stereotypes about the SOL ecosystem were extremely solid: meme-driven, a playground for local dogs, and a new narrative every day. Indeed, in the past two years, Solana became a hotbed for grassroots projects thanks to its extremely low gas fees and rapid speed, with various meme coins playing wildly on it and attracting a large amount of speculative capital. But honestly, this ecosystem has a fatal flaw—it's lively, but it comes and goes quickly. Capital comes like a tide, withdrawing at any moment. And now, with $4.8 billion in tokenized equity trading volume, we know that a completely different group of players is entering the market. These people care not about which coin's dog head is cuter, but about how to conveniently allocate on-chain assets like private equity and startup shares—assets with high barriers in the traditional world. After tokenization, the equity that was originally locked in Excel spreadsheets has become...At the close of US stocks on Monday, the $BTC 63,300 level had been sideways all day. ETF data is out—net outflow of 43 million, but strangely, the price hasn't dropped much. To me, this deviation is a signal.
After six years of navigating this market, my deepest takeaway is: news is fragile against the market. Last year, news of ETF outflows would have been a $BTC drop long ago, but this week it clearly hasn't fallen.
On-chain data is even more interesting: BTC balances on exchanges have declined for the fourth consecutive day, while stablecoins continue to flow in. This shows that some people are accumulating shares at low prices, rather than fleeing in panic. $ETH is also starting to gain volume. If this breakthrough breaks previous highs, it could be the horn for the knockoff season.
Only those who can hold hold deserve to eat the meat. $BTC $ETH $SOL#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
In recent years, the global storage market has been dominated by the "Big Three" of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
But with Changxin Technology's entry into the capital market, a new competitor has officially stepped into the spotlight.
The significance behind this is not just that there is an additional listed company, but that China's storage industry chain is entering a new stage.
The storage industry is essentially a cyclical sector.
Over the past two years, DRAM and NAND prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with manufacturers shifting from aggressive expansion to proactive production cuts, marking a round of inventory clearance.
Now, AI is reshaping the demand structure of the storage market.
Previously, storage mainly relied on mobile phones and PCs for consumer electronics.
Now, AI servers and high-performance computing are becoming new growth engines.
In particular, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) has become a key resource in AI chip competition.
Why are NVIDIA GPUs so strong?
Besides computing power, high-speed storage support is also indispensable.
Future storage competition will no longer be just about who has the largest production capacity, but about who can master advanced processes, high-end products, and AI supply chains.
Changxin Technology's IPO also signals that global memory industry competition may enter a new phase:
From the previous "three giants" monopoly, it has gradually shifted to multi-party competition.
But the challenges are equally obvious.
The storage industry doesn't make money by stories, but by technology, scale, and the ability to traverse cycles.
Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, after decades of accumulation, still possess significant technological advantages.
For Changxin, going public is just the beginning; the real test is whether it can prove its competitiveness in the next storage cycle.
For investors, a core change needs to be observed:
The greatest opportunity in the AI era may not be limited to AI applications.
The chips, advanced packaging, and storage behind computing power may all become key elements in the next round of industry competition.
But you should also be cautious:
With every industrial revolution, the market speculates on the future in advance.
The companies that truly stay are not the ones who tell the loudest stories, but those that can continue to invest in R&D during cyclical downturns.
The new war in the storage industry has only just begun.上周，谷歌和特斯拉给所有人上了一课。
谷歌云营收暴涨82%——有史以来最好的成绩。特斯拉营收282亿，历史新高。
然后呢？
谷歌跌了7%，特斯拉跌了14%。
原因就两个字：烧钱。
谷歌二季度资本支出449亿美元，自由现金流上市以来首次转负，负59亿。还把全年资本开支指引上调到1950亿至2050亿美元。
市场直接翻脸。过去是“越多越好”，现在变成了“越少越妙”。
现在轮到微软、Meta、亚马逊了。
周三微软和Meta上考场，周四亚马逊。
这仨今年合计要烧掉多少？按分析师平均预估，Alphabet、微软、亚马逊和Meta四家今年资本支出合计约7240亿美元，2027年更逼近9500亿美元。
7240亿是什么概念？超过瑞典一年的GDP。
而回报呢？机构预测，2026年谷歌、亚马逊全年自由现金流将持续为负，Meta全年现金流或萎缩95.7%，仅剩18.5亿美元。
先说微软——最危险的那个。
微软股价已经较高点回撤近三成。今年在七巨头里表现倒数第二，累计跌了21%。
市场盯着两个数字：
Azure增速——管理层指引39%到40%。守住了，AI故事还能讲；守不住，1900亿美元的资本开支就是无底洞。
资本开支指引——上季度已经319亿了，这季度超400亿。2027财年的预期大约是220亿美元，被视作“纪律性”的临界线。如果远超这个数，自由现金流压力会进一步放大。
微软的问题在于：Azure既要服务外部客户，又要支撑内部Copilot和AI研发。算力永远不够，钱永远在烧。Copilot从附加功能变成标配了，但变现速度跟得上烧钱速度吗？
再说Meta——最纯粹的压力测试。
Meta没有云业务可以卖算力，AI投入只能靠内部消化：提升广告精准度、增强用户粘性。
公司已经把2026年资本开支指引上调到1250亿至1450亿美元。股价年初至今跌了9.7%。
广告业务确实猛——Q1广告营收550亿美元，增长33%。但AI烧的钱，能把利润率烧穿到什么程度？
Meta是四家里最纯粹的AI投入压力测试标的。没有云业务兜底，AI回报全靠广告变现。如果这次财报AI没能显著拉动广告收入，Meta的估值支撑会是最弱的那个。
最后说亚马逊——最大的一张牌。
亚马逊的剧本和其他人不一样。它手里有AWS。
AWS一季度增速回升到28%，创三年多新高，积压订单超过3600亿美元。分析师预计二季度AWS增速可能突破30%。
2000亿美元的资本开支计划，换来的是AWS 13.1%的历史最高营业利润率。CEO贾西说自研芯片Trainium“每年能省下数百亿美元资本开支”。
亚马逊的问题是：体量太大了。
过去十二个月自由现金流只剩12亿美元。2000亿砸下去，AWS增速能不能持续？如果答案是否定的，市场不会手软——此前资本扩张计划落地时，股价曾单日大跌8%。
周三周四，三个答案会陆续揭晓。
你第一个看什么数字？
我会先看资本开支指引——上调还是维持？如果像谷歌一样继续加码，抛售会再来一轮。
然后看云收入增速——微软的Azure、亚马逊的AWS，能不能守住预期？
最后看自由现金流——有没有转负？转负多少？
“烧钱换增长”的故事，你还信吗？
掏钱砸AI的巨头被市场锤，承接AI订单的芯片厂却涨疯了。这场AI盛宴，赚钱的和买单的，从来不是同一批人。
$META $XMSFT $AMZN
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative?
Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are set to release earnings reports this week, and together their annual capital expenditures are approaching $500 billion.
The problem is that too much money is spent, but the returns are hard to see. The Big Seven are expected to spend 725 billion yuan on AI capital this year, and may reach 950 billion next year. The company's own operating cash flow simply can't cover it; it has to rely on issuing bonds and issuing additional stocks to make up for it. The market is already a bit frustrated—Meta has dropped nearly 10% this year, and Amazon has barely risen.
Microsoft was the first to go up after trading on Wednesday. Market expectations for revenue of 87.4 billion yuan, up 14.3%, with earnings per share of 4.21. Azure growth guidance is 39% to 40%, which is a key metric that must be met or even slightly exceeded. What truly tightens the market is capital expenditure—Q3 already reached 31.9 billion, Q4 guidance says over 40 billion, and the full-year is around 190 billion. Spending 190 billion to build an AI data center, and Azure can get a few more points up, whether this can be calculated is the biggest suspense.
Meta on the same day. Advertising business is still rising, with Bank of America forecasting revenue of 60.6 billion and earnings per share of 7.5%. However, the capital expenditure cap was raised from 135 billion to 145 billion. AI is indeed helping improve advertising efficiency, but spending 145 billion yuan for this efficiency boost is already questioning the market.
Amazon closed out on Thursday. AWS growth may exceed 30%, the first time since 2022. But the 200 billion yuan capital expenditure plan is still holding, and 25 billion yuan in bonds were issued this month, putting considerable pressure on free cash flow.
The three financial reports actually answer the same question—the Seven Giants burn 725 billion a year to build AI infrastructure. When will it turn into real money? Google already handed in last week, with cloud revenue up 82%, but capital expenditures doubled and free cash flow turned negative, and the market was not on the look.
If Microsoft's Azure growth falls below 39%, Meta raises capital expenditures again, or Amazon AWS's growth falls short of expectations, the AI narrative may have to be rewritten. At that point, the first to be abandoned won't be those companies that don't invest in AI, but those that invest the most but fail to deliver returns. Can they really stay safe?#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
Although I feel like this time they definitely won't add any, every time I see this, my heart tightens, since it's closely related to our assets!
Everyone is guessing—will there be a rate hike or not? Hawkish or dovish?
But you might not have noticed: the market has already "voted" itself before the meeting.
Let's first look at the most crucial point: oil prices.
Last week, Brent's original $BZ briefly broke through $100 per barrel. The market was frightened—"A second inflation is coming!" The Fed is going to raise rates to the limit! ”
So what happened? The US and Iran paused their attacks over the weekend, raising expectations of a ceasefire. Oil prices crashed 5% at the opening on Monday, Brent dropped to around $92, and WTI $CL fell below $85.
The biggest bomb in inflation expectations was defused by itself before the FOMC meeting.
Looking at the gold $XAU market, this decision is also the hardest to predict. On one hand, the US CPI data series continues to improve, seemingly easing pressure to raise rates immediately this month; On the other hand, officials led by Wash continue to express their determination to fight inflation. Repeated geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, along with ongoing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, have given more confidence to hawkish voices within the committee. Even if oil prices fall short-term, whether the idea of raising rates can be abandoned remains uncertain.
Bitcoin $BTC is currently fluctuating around $65,000. Ethereum $ETH has also reached around $1,970. The market is booming, especially since ETF funds are also increasing their holdings.
The Fear and Greed Index rebounded from its early-month low to around 39. Although still in the "fear" range, it is already at a relatively high level for the month.
Clear signals in the options market: large call options bet BTC to surge to $72,000 after the FOMC lands. Smart money is already pricing in the logic of "falling oil prices."
My view: I believe the focus of this FOMC is not on whether to raise rates; the core game is the expectation gap.
There are likely to be two scenarios for the meeting, which can be simply understood: if Walsh's speech is hawkish and continues to warn of upward inflation risks, the market will readjust its expectations; If the current situation of slowing inflation and falling oil prices is accepted, Bitcoin at $65,000 is very likely to become new support, and there will be another upward trend.Let's first look at today's big picture: geopolitical risks are receding, but the money hasn't returned
The phrase you heard, "The U.S. is not fighting Iran," was indeed the core news of today's Asia-Pacific trading session.
As of 10 a.m. Beijing time today, WTI crude oil futures fell below $68 per barrel, with the intraday decline widening to 1.8%, indicating that the war premium is being rapidly squeezed out.
In theory, this is positive for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), and the market has indeed rebounded in response.
But the problem is: this rally is not driven by incremental funds, but by short covering.
This morning's rebound did not effectively amplify trading volume.
In other words, many of those chasing the rally are actually allies who chose to "hold on" after being stuck yesterday, rather than new large funds entering the market.
This raises doubts about the sustainability of the rebound—if it rises, it could actually become the starting point for a new round of selling pressure.
---
Now look at the three stocks in your hands: each is in completely different situations
1. SHIB (Shiba Inu Coin)
Today, SHIB's trend is the most of a trendsetter. When the market rises, it rises slightly; when the market stagnates, it falls the fastest.
Looking at on-chain data, the number of large transfers in the past 24 hours has decreased, indicating that the "whales" have not acted; now, the main focus is on retail investors playing games.
Conclusion: If you don't have firm faith in 0.1u, then SHIB is not a good place to add to your position here. Because it lacks its own narrative drive and is entirely dependent on Bitcoin's mood.
2. KAITO (AI Concept Coin)
The AI sector was generally weak today because the earnings season for US tech stocks is approaching, and funds are waiting for the real results from Google and Tesla, hesitant to make early bets.
KAITO is a highly volatile stock, and its rebounds often come and go quickly.
If you increased your position yesterday, today's rise is more an opportunity to reduce losses and exit, rather than a signal to increase your position.
3. LAB (the one you emphasized)
Regarding LAB, there is a real data point today: as of 11 a.m., the 24-hour turnover rate of LAB/USDT exceeds 80%.
This is an extremely dangerous signal—high turnover + price not breaking previous highs means the main players are not building positions but selling off on opposite sides.
---
Back to your core question: add to your position or clear your position?
Here are three clear suggestions based on "today's actual situation," regardless of right or wrong, just to see if it suits you:
· If you haven't done anything today: it's best not to move, not to add to your position.
Because the rebound brought by geopolitical easing usually takes place within 6-12 hours after the news is confirmed.
The real test will come after the European session opens this afternoon. If European funds do not take over, there will be another pullback before the US market opens tonight.
· If your position is already over 60%: I suggest taking advantage of this rebound to offset the portion you added yesterday, even if it's just a small loss in fees.
Because your core issue right now isn't "whether you can make money," but "your mindset is unbalanced after being stuck."
After reducing your position, your holding cost will return to a more comfortable level, allowing you to hold onto your bottom position and avoid cutting at the lowest point in a panic.
· If you have no faith in 0.1u: then it's not a matter of adding or clearing positions, but of product selection.
Today's data is clear: Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) has rebounded above 58% again.
This shows that funds are hedged rather than taking risks. Betting on geopolitical news with altcoins is essentially using short-term logic for long-term positions—this is the root of losses.
---
Finally, let me be honest with you
Brother, today isn't 'something terrible,' but rather 'the chaos after the alarm is lifted.'
The real major market will only be decided tomorrow after the earnings reports from Google and Tesla come out tonight, and see how US stocks price their stocks.
Increasing positions now is gambling on news; Clearing out now is a gamble on emotions.
And in this market, the only thing you don't bet on is controlling your position and costs.
My advice is clear: don't make decisions today—just look, not buy.
If US stocks strengthen tonight, look for an opportunity to add tomorrow; If the US stock market weakens tonight, every penny you add today will become regret tomorrow.
Stay steady, and don't let your position crush your judgment.
You're still at the table, so there's still a chance.
$SHIB $KAITO $LAB — But don't forget, live first, then talk about making money.以太坊ETH 行情完整分析（2026.07.27）
一、盘面基础现状
1. 现价与波动
当前价格约1965 USDT，24小时涨幅3.8%，涨幅明显强于比特币，资金小幅轮动流入二线加密资产；日内区间1890~1970美元，短线放量反弹，但中期下跌结构未反转。
年内整体跌幅44%，历史高点4878美元，累计回撤超60%，熊市调整幅度远大于比特币。
2. 技术指标
日线RSI 62，接近超买边缘，短线多头动能短暂释放；价格站上短期5日均线，但仍大幅承压50日线（1890）、200日线（2317）两大中长期均线，未形成反转趋势。
3. 核心关键点位（美元）
| 档位 | 价格区间 | 解读 |
| ---- | ---- | ---- |
| 短线强压力 | 2000整数关口、2080 | 2000是心理大关，站稳才能打开反弹空间；2080为短期密集套牢区 |
| 中期重压 | 2317（200日均线） | 牛熊分界线，突破才算彻底扭转下跌趋势 |
| 短线支撑 | 1890（50日均线） | 本轮反弹强弱分水岭，跌破反弹结束重回震荡 |
| 核心防守支撑 | 1680 | 前期成交密集底仓区间，失守将开启深度回调 |
| 极限支撑 | 1385 | 年内阶段性低点，极端下跌底部 |
二、短期上涨支撑逻辑
1. 宏观预期缓和
6月美国核心通胀回落至2.6%，市场一致预判7月29日美联储维持3.5%-3.75%高利率不变，年内加息概率大幅下降，美债收益率小幅下行，无息加密资产估值压力短期缓解，资金小幅回流风险资产。
2. 资金轮动炒作
比特币小幅上涨后，短线投机资金分流以太坊，DeFi、质押赛道同步拉升，stETH、UNI等生态代币跟涨，带动ETH短线脉冲走强。
3. 现货ETF长期政策叙事
美国以太坊现货ETF审批持续拉锯，市场始终押注后续落地，只要监管释放温和信号，就会催生短线反弹，是以太坊独有的炒作逻辑。
4. 质押锁仓减少流通抛压
大量ETH长期质押于信标链，市面流通现货供给收缩，不存在无限量集中砸盘，大幅限制极端暴跌空间。
三、压制持续大涨的核心中长期利空
1. 高利率环境长期维持
机构经济学家一致预期2026全年美联储不会降息，无风险国债收益持续偏高，资金更偏好低风险固收产品，加密市场长期缺少增量资金入场，反弹无量难以持续。
2. 以太坊ETF资金整体流出
短暂单日小额净流入无法扭转长期持续净流出趋势，机构对以太坊布局意愿远低于比特币，没有长线大额买盘托底行情。
3. 生态叙事持续弱化
ARB、OP等二层网络持续分流用户、交易量与资金，“世界计算机”核心叙事吸引力下降；链上活跃度、Gas消耗走低，ETH通缩逻辑减弱，基本面支撑不足。
4. 联动下跌弹性更大
ETH行情完全绑定比特币走势，一旦BTC破位下行，以太坊跌幅通常远超比特币，熊市抗风险能力弱于大饼。
5. 基金会内部利空
以太坊基金会缩减研发预算、裁员，市场担忧长期技术迭代放缓，持续压制长线资金信心。
四、后市三种情景推演（1~4周周期）
1. 区间震荡（72%最高概率）
价格在1680~2000区间来回拉锯，短线冲高触碰2000后承压回落，跟随比特币窄幅波动，合约来回扫止损，无单边趋势。
触发条件：美联储维持高利率、ETF资金流入流出交替、无重磅政策利好。
2. 阶段性反弹（23%概率）
放量站稳2000关口，反弹目标2080~2317；只有美联储释放明确降息信号、以太坊ETF连续多日大额净流入，才有机会冲击2317中长期牛熊线。
3. 深度破位下跌（5%概率）
比特币跌破60000关键支撑，以太坊同步失守1680支撑，下探1385年内低点，极端行情测试1200美元低位。
五、核心风险总结
1. 波动风险极高：以太坊涨跌弹性是比特币1.5倍，高倍杠杆合约极易插针爆仓，小幅震荡即可清空本金；
2. 趋势未反转：未站稳2317美元200日均线前，所有上涨仅定义为下跌途中技术性修复，不适合长期重仓持有；
3. 法律红线：国内任何虚拟货币交易渠道均不合规，银行卡冻结、平台跑路、资产被盗无法维权；
4. 山寨属性隐患：共识、机构持仓、流动性全面弱于比特币，熊市回撤幅度更大，底部磨底周期更长。🚨 This might be the most misunderstood crypto protocol right now.
Most people think $FWA is just another NFT gambling app.
It isn't.
It's a carefully designed game where depositors, drawers, and the protocol all have different incentives—and that's exactly why it's generating serious revenue.
Here's how the machine actually works 👇
• Step 1: Deposit
You deposit an NFT from a supported collection (Punks, Azuki, Lil Pudgys, Art Blocks, etc.) and choose how much ETH to back it with. The protocol doesn't value your NFT—you decide the backing.
Depositors earn a share of every spin, plus FWA emissions. At current activity, many positions complete a full cycle in 11–17 hours, with depositors often getting their NFT back while collecting fees.
• Step 2: Draw
A player pays 0.117 ETH for a random draw.
The odds aren't equal—positions with lower ETH backing are selected much more often than heavily backed ones.
The appeal? A single spin can land an NFT worth several times the ticket price.
• Step 3: Settlement
The winner has three choices:
✅ Keep the NFT and the depositor receives 99% of their backing.
✅ Sell it back for 85% of the backing in ETH.
✅ Take that 85% as $FWA, which is bought from Uniswap instead of paid in ETH.
Most players choose the third option.
• Where the spin fee goes
The 0.117 ETH is split between:
• 1% to the protocol
• 5% to the largest backing in the pool
• ~94% shared equally across every active position—regardless of whether it's backed by 0.02 ETH or 5 ETH.
That's the key mechanic.
The reason it's working today is simple: many NFTs are backed with more ETH than their market value, so drawers usually take the ETH while depositors keep both their NFT and the accumulated fees.
It's an unusual incentive system—and so far, it's produced roughly $289K/day in protocol revenue.
#DailyOrbit #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its July interest rate decision. Currently, market divisions are significant: Mainstream economists unanimously expect rates to remain unchanged, but the probability of a rate hike in futures pricing has risen to 36%. The inflationary pressure from the price of 100 yuan oil has pushed rate hike suspense further, and three asset classes are expected to experience significant volatility. 🍁 Three decision scenarios, corresponding asset 🌿 trends: Rate unchanged + Hawkish speech. The Fed pauses rate hikes but emphasizes that oil prices are driving up inflation risks, leaving room for another rate hike in September, making it clear that high interest rates will persist long-term. 1. Crude oil: Slightly higher before pulling back. A temporary US-Iran ceasefire weakens geopolitical premiums, and combined with high interest rates suppressing global energy demand, oil prices struggle to hold above the 100-yuan mark, with overall prices fluctuating downward at high levels; $CL 2. Gold: Briefly pressured and pulled back. U.S. Treasury real yields are rising, the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold has increased, geopolitical risk aversion support is limited, and gold prices are fluctuating and weakening; $XAUT 3. Bitcoin, Ethereum: surged then retreated, abruptly halting the rebound. Interest-free crypto assets are most wary of long-term high interest rates, with funds continuously flowing into US Treasuries as a safe haven. The market only fluctuates in the short term, unable to break the upward trend. 🍃 $BTC $ETH Keeping rates unchanged + dovish rhetoric: The Fed acknowledges a steady decline in inflation, signaling the end of the year's rate hike cycle, and rate cut expectations returning to the market. The US dollar and US Treasury yields fell across the board: crude oil benefited from a continued upward trend in demand expectations; Gold has seen a steady rebound; Crypto circle#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
At 02:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, July 30, the interest rate decision was announced, and at 02:30, Federal Reserve Chair Wash held a press conference.
📊 Market Expectations: A Rare "Great Split"
The market has shown rare divisions in its judgment on this resolution:
· Economist Consensus (Hold Steady): A Bloomberg survey of 76 economists showed that all respondents expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Of the 104 economists surveyed by Reuters, 78 believe the rate will remain unchanged until December this year.
· Interest rate futures market (rate hike expectations heat): CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July surged from 13% a week ago to 38%, currently holding at around 36%.
🔥 Key highlight: The real risk lies after the "no rate hikes."
PGIM's chief U.S. economist described the meeting as "almost fifty-fifty." The real key is not the interest rate itself, but the wording of Wash's at 2:30 a.m.:
· Hawkish risk (if the wording is hawkish): If the statement retains "inflation risks remain on the rise" or emphasizes that energy price shocks may spread and require "additional policy tightening," the market will reprice and may put pressure on BTC.
· Dovish may (if inflation slows): If Wash acknowledges a drop in oil prices and easing inflationary pressures, $65,000 could become the new floor.
Additionally, Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Hamack may vote against raising rates immediately. If there are votes against it, it will be seen as a strong warning of a rate hike in September.
⏰ On the same night, there were "two trials"
At 8:30 PM that evening, the preliminary US Q2 GDP and June PCE inflation data will also be released. The data will test how well the market responds to Wash's remarks.
💡 Impact on BTC
· "Expectations gap" is the core: Bitcoin trades not about "raising rates," but about "expectations gap."
· Oil prices have already "unraveled" early: last week, Brent crude briefly broke below $100 per barrel, but after expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend heated, oil prices plunged 5% on Monday to around $92. The biggest landmine of inflation expectations has been prematurely removed.
· Potential volatility direction: Dovish wording may push BTC to test the 67,000-68,000 resistance zone; Hawkish rhetoric could trigger a pullback to 64,000 or even lower. The options market already has large call bets on FOMC, pushing BTC toward $72,000. $BTC $ETH On its first day of listing, Changxin Technology surged 453%, with a turnover of 90.1 billion yuan, breaking the previous record for single-day trading volume for a single A-share stock.
Congratulations to all A-share traders who have successfully subscribed to new stocks.
Previously, we discussed Solana: iUSRerdqvY4Si9PxT8e5RZtnvvM4MsV1EVrKPPBpump perpetual contracts began trading before Changxin's official listing. On-chain prices were pushed to the ceiling three times by buyers, reaching a high of $8.64, roughly 62 RMB.
Today, the A-share market opened at 49.5 yuan. On-chain retail investors offered prices 25% higher than the opening of A-shares.
This at least shows that the on-chain pricing direction for this stock is correct—it has indeed surged; Moreover, speculative enthusiasm on the chain is even fiercer than that of A-share retail investors, with higher premiums.
However, there is currently a view that Changxin's premium is too high and that it is inclined to take profits at the opening.
So, traders, could you share some trading tips with me in the comments section?OKB is currently fluctuating in the $80-85 range (late July 2026), with over 68% retracement from the August 2025 all-time high of $258. This is a stage where "long-term positive news has been realized, but short-term direction is unclear." It's not a blind chase, but there's no need to be completely short either—it's better to use small positions to buy on dips and wait for catalysts.
Current market positioning
As of July 25, OKB closed at $82.27, fluctuating narrowly between $78-85 for the month, with the latest quote around $84. On the technical side:
Support levels: $80-82 (held multiple times in July)
Resistance levels: $85 (Bybit data shows clear selling pressure above 85 USDT), $90-92 (stronger resistance)
From the all-time high: about 68% retracement from $258, but about 40% rebound from the February low of $60
Simply put, right now it's in the middle of a range; chasing highs or bottom-fishing is not comfortable.
The underlying logic of bullish views (still in the long term)
OKB's "deflation + ecosystem" narrative is real, not just hype:
Permanent supply lock: In August 2025, 65.25 million OKB will be burned at once, with a permanent total supply of 21 million tokens. Smart contracts have removed the rights to mint and burn additional tokens
OKT Merge Completed: OKTChain was shut down on January 1, 2026. OKT was converted to OKB at a fixed rate, turning dual-chain into single-chain, with OKB becoming the sole core asset of the OKX ecosystem
X Layer ecosystem launch: As X Layer's native gas token, Aave V3 has been deployed, Polygon AggLayer is cross-chain integrated, and RWA subnets are planned, with TPS reaching 5000
Application scenarios continue to expand: In July 2026, OKB will cover all scenarios with centralized trading fee discounts, Jumpstart new subscriptions, X Layer on-chain payments, and FlashEarn wealth management (OKB/USDT liquidity pool APY 8%-12%)
💡 These positive factors are real and long-term, but most have already been priced in during the August 2025 surge—so the keynote for the first half of 2026 is "digesting profit-taking," with cumulative declines of about 25%-28%.
Bearish / Risk factors
Previous positive factors overdrawed: In August 2025, the index rose from 44 to 258 in a single month, showing huge short-term profit-taking, but the rebound lacked sustained on-chain data verification
Ecosystem data fell short of expectations: X Layer's TVL and transaction volume growth did not keep pace with the price increase
Macro and Regulatory: Global crypto regulatory uncertainty is rising, capital is on the sidelines; Platform coins generally underperform mainstream coins like BTC and ETH
Derivatives sentiment divergence: Contract funding rates show a positive and negative divergence across different exchanges (OKX is positive, HTX is negative), with obvious tug-of-war between bulls and bears
Should you buy now? Scenario-specific suggestions
🎯 If you are a short-term trader (1-4 weeks)
The current area around $84 is not a good buying opportunity. Recommendations:
Wait for a pullback to the 80-82 support zone, then build a base position in batches (no more than one-third of the planned position)
If volume surpasses 85 and it holds steady, you can add more positions; If it falls below 78, stop losses and wait and see
The first target above is 90-92; strong resistance suggests reducing positions
🎯 If you are planning a mid-term layout (3-6 months)
You can open a small position (5%-10% of total assets) at the current position with a bottom position. The logic is:
The deflationary model of 21 million fixed total has medium- to long-term support
If X Layer's RWA subnets and zk-proof recursion progress as scheduled in Q4, there is a chance to challenge $120-150
But be prepared for the possibility of further fluctuations in the 75-95 range for 3-6 months
🎯 If you haven't bought one yet and want to configure it for the first time,
Not recommended to shuttle all at once. As a platform token, OKB is tightly tied to the operations of the OKX exchange, resulting in higher risk as a single asset. Recommendations:
The initial deposit does not exceed 5% of your total crypto assets.
Use the pyramid position building method: "Add a little below 80, add a bit more if it drops to 75."
Always keep more than 30% cash to withstand extreme drawdowns
⚠️ Three Warning Signs to Watch Out For:
(1) If BTC breaks below key support and drags down the market, OKB, as a high-beta asset, will fall even harder;
(2) If OKX faces major regulatory blows (referencing Binance's history), OKB will be the first to bear the brunt;
(3) Currently, the total OKB contract position across the network is about $27 million, with short positions dominating the liquidation amount, indicating significant market divergence and a tendency for sharp spikes in one-sided markets.
My judgment
It leans slightly more neutral, but not in a "buy now" position.
OKB's long-term value logic is sound—21 million fixed total supply + X Layer ecosystem GAS consumption + quarterly buyback burns. This model is one of the hardest scarce assets in the crypto market over a 3-5 year timeframe. However, in the short term (in the next 1-2 months), selling pressure above $85 is very strong, and a direct breakout would require a new major catalyst (for example, a traditional financial institution announcing RWA settlement based on X Layer).
The most practical approach for you is to split your funds into 3-4 parts, placing limit orders at the 80, 78, 75, and 70 levels to buy in batches. This way, whether the market continues to fluctuate or drops again, you can get a relatively low average cost. If it directly surges above 90, missing the first wave is fine—platform coins often move in pulses, and if it breaks 90 and pulls back, there is a second chance to get in.
Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on publicly available market data and on-chain data, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and as a platform token, OKB faces unique variables such as exchange operation risks and regulatory risks. Please strictly control your position and invest only with spare cash. #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative?
This week's earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon in the tech world will determine whether the AI rally continues to rise or the bubble bursts!
The reason is simple: the market is now extremely anxious about "spending money, not making money." Previously, Alphabet was heavily slashed for raising capital expenditures, and Tesla posted its biggest weekly drop since 2022. What everyone fears is that AI is a bottomless pit.
Verifiable data is harsh: the capital expenditure guidance (Capex) of these three major cloud providers is the core highlight. If they continue to aggressively buy graphics cards to build data centers but cloud business revenue growth lags behind, the market will vote with its feet.
My trading approach: Before the earnings releases on Wednesday and Thursday, I won't bet on direction. If you hold the underlying stock, you might consider selling a Covered Call to collect some premium to hedge against the risk of sharp after-hours swings.
There's a new variable this time: OKX has launched tokenized US stock spot trading, supporting 24×7 trading. This means that even if US stocks are closed, XMSTF and XMETA can still be traded in USDT, with more immediate price responses.
A verifiable phenomenon is: in the past, after earnings reports you couldn't escape, you couldn't escape; now, outside of trading hours, you can use tokenized assets to get ahead of the market. This leads to amplified after-hours volatility, making liquidity shocks more pronounced.
My trading approach: If you play tokenized US stocks, be sure to set stop-losses. Liquidity during these non-traditional trading sessions may not be as good as the underlying stocks, so be cautious of inserting needles. Focus on monitoring AI commercialization progress; this is the only lifeline.
Overall, this week is a critical moment to test whether "investment can pay off." Don't just listen to stories; look at real financial performance. If all three can't hold on, AI narratives will be doomed in the short term.#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
Exercise! The small gains on Monday were all scams.
Since the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took charge, he has directly smashed the "guide signs" to dust, and the market is now as awkward as a blind man crossing a river.
The CME has put the probability of holding steady in July at just over 60%, with a 25 basis point hike still hovering over 30%. Two weeks ago, this was just over 10%. Oil prices previously surged past 100, and unemployment data was rock solid, and the shadow of a second inflation resurgence has yet to dissipate.
Traders on X have already started arguing with each other. Some people exclaimed, "This uncertainty is ridiculous. Normally, the market is 90% certain at this time, but now it's like flipping a coin."
Some people are eyeing the $2.5 billion BTC spread on options and betting on a 72k breakout, thinking they will force their way in. Another group is even more direct: the little bit of enthusiasm on Monday was just a short buying scam; the real direction will only be revealed 48 hours after the meeting.
Some analysts simply said they hope to bear a bit on Monday, then insert the needle up to 62-63k before discussing further developments. Institutional funds are still flowing back into ETFs in small amounts, but who can say this isn't a false calm before the storm?
The real issue isn't whether or not interest rates are raised. Holding the position but continuing to emphasize inflation risks and hinting that there is still room for tightening is essentially telling the market that action could happen at any time in September, shrinking liquidity expectations and taking the first hit on risk assets. Raise interest rates directly? That's even less necessary—even 62k might not be enough.
Only if they completely remove phrases like "might tighten again" from the draft can the bulls breathe a sigh of relief. But judging by Warsh's style, what right does he have to support you?
On one side, tech giants are struggling with AI capital spending, with Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon releasing their earnings reports this week. If money is poured in, can income keep up? If you can't keep up, the valuation bubble will burst again; Only by keeping up can you keep extending your emotions. Although oil prices have fallen a bit on the geopolitical side, the spark could be rekindled at any moment. FTX's compensation funds are set to move at the end of the month, causing short-term cash flow chaos.
BTC is now hovering around 65,000, with the panic index just over 30. That's not a greed restart, but a recovery from a big drop. The real resistance above is 67-68k; if you can't hold at 63.6k, go straight to 62k to enjoy the scenery.
Someone on X has already made it clear: sideways movement means pre-meeting volume shrinkage and false stability; don't be fooled by Monday's bullish candlestick to chase the rally. Playing with low leverage on contracts is one thing, but this week you definitely won't hold back on double-sided insertion.
To put it bluntly, this week there are three main forces fighting each other: the Fed holding the wallet, oil prices watching inflation on the string, AI earnings reports determining everyone's mood, and Bitcoin ultimately only living at the mercy of global big capital.
Poor expectations are the real deadly knife. Still counting on doves? The chances are pitifully slim. Betting on the hawkish faction? Then be prepared to get hammered.
The market doesn't care about your emotional level; it only accepts the final result.The Great Liquidity Rotation
$AAVE stole the spotlight with a 9.04% rally, while $KITE (+6.35%) and $XLM (+2.93%) also posted strong gains.
But this doesn't look like a broad altcoin breakout.
It looks like selective liquidity rotation.
Capital is concentrating in a relatively small group of assets rather than flowing across the entire market. Names like $ETC and $WLD are also attracting steady buying interest, but many altcoins are still struggling to build sustained momentum.
The charts may be flashing green, but market participation remains uneven. A handful of leaders are driving performance while much of the market continues to lag behind.
That makes this a market where stock selection matters more than ever.
₿ $BTC continues to act as the primary liquidity anchor, while traders look for relative strength in a select group of high-conviction assets instead of chasing every green candle.
The takeaway?
Don't confuse isolated rallies with a market-wide altseason.
Track where liquidity is consistently returning, stay patient, and let confirmation—not emotion—guide your decisions.
In markets like these, following the flow often matters more than following the hype.
#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch
$BTC $ETH $SHIB The news that NVIDIA plans to provide a $250 billion guarantee for OpenAI has short-term boosted appetite for AI hardware and risk assets, but its implementation remains uncertain, and the first phase must be completed by 2028. The core contradiction lies in the disconnect between short-term sentiment premium and forward high-leverage credit risk.
On the factual side, this guarantee is intended to support OpenAI's lease of a 10GW giant data center in Ohio, with a total investment exceeding $500 billion. The market directly interprets this as AI capital spending not peaking, which has driven the replenishment of computing hardware positions and boosted overall risk appetite.
The current ranking of driving factors is: first in terms of forward computing power demand lock-in and improved credit endorsement, second in macro funding costs and interest rate cut expectations, and third in the actual commercialization and monetization capability of large models. This ranking encourages funds to prioritize hardware infrastructure but overlooks the indirect transmission of forward debt to inflation and interest rate environments.
The upward scenario requires formal agreement signed by both parties and steady rise in the US computing power sector. The trigger condition is that Nvidia successfully secures low-cost loans and locks in long-term GPU procurement. The variable to watch is cash flow in the computing power sector. If the Fed's rate cut pace exceeds expectations and macro positive factors overlap, risk appetite will further expand; A failure signal is the breakdown of an agreement during the negotiation phase.
The trigger for the downward scenario lies in short-term buying and selling expected, as well as profit-taking on the market due to short-term buying and selling, and OpenAI's lower-than-expected commercialization causing difficulties in paying rent. Forward debt risks are directly transmitted to Nvidia's credit side. The variable to watch is the valuation pressure on AI-themed stocks lacking performance support, with the signal of failure being the huge guarantee for investment-grade financial institutions to supplement capital.
If the Fed slows its rate cut pace or macro regulatory variables such as the CLARITY Act experience sharp fluctuations, the decisive role of macro policy on mainstream assets will reshape the distribution of capital positions, and at that point, the transmission effect of single-industry guarantee messages will completely fail.
The core variable to watch over the next seven days is whether both parties can finalize a formal guarantee agreement and the stability of holdings in the US computing power sector after sentiment surges.
#贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟 #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过Intraday high 0.17U, intraday low 0.143U, current price 0.145U, maximum 24-hour drop 11.3%; Breaking below the 0.14u short-term psychological support level, erasing all previous day's recovery gains and laying the groundwork for the next waterfall rally. On-chain Tokens: The team's previously linked address transferred 7.99 million LAB tokens to the exchange, with large coin accumulation and cold wallets showing no increased holdings; Spot exchange inventories continued to rise, while long-term funds were all cautious and exited. Four core negative logic for an imminent crash 1. A new round of token unlock anticipation is fermenting, with selling pressure priced in advance (core trigger). August will see a large unlocking of team shares, with a total of 46.3 million LAB flowing into circulation; The market anticipated in advance that after the market unlocked, concentrated selling continued, short-term bottom-fishing funds chose to take profits early to avoid risk, completely cutting off new capital flows and directly triggering price declines. 2. On-chain insider addresses continue to transfer tokens, market panic rises On-chain monitoring shows that the team's affiliated entities still hold 81.5 million LAB tokens that have not been sold. On July 27, they split off small tokens again and transferred them to exchanges. Investors worry about continued sell-offs and are following the trend to reduce positions and intensify selling pressure. 3. Short-term rebound lacks fundamental support; pure oversold recovery phase ends The previous day's slight rebound relied solely on oversold bottom-fishing funds, with no substantial positive effects such as AI product updates or institutional cooperation on July 27; The project's narrative has been exposed by insider trading scandals, and there is no long-term capital inflow to support the bottom. 4. Technically, short-term overbought with concentrated programmatic stop-loss triggers, slight single-day movement#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
China's storage industry has entered a milestone of symbolic significance. On July 27, Changxin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market, opening sharply on its first day and its market value once surpassing 3.3 trillion yuan, making it one of the highest-valued listed companies on the A-share market, marking the official step onto the global capital market stage for domestic storage.
In recent years, the global memory chip market has long been dominated by giants like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. The AI wave has further driven explosive demand for HBM and high-end DRAM, with orders and capital continuously concentrating on Korean manufacturers. Just before Changxin's IPO, Anthropic signed supply cooperation agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix, and Nvidia announced its investment in South Korea's Naver, further strengthening South Korea's advantage in the AI storage industry chain.
The listing of Changxin Technology has introduced a new variable to global storage competition. As domestic DRAM capacity continues to be released, Chinese companies are entering the global memory industry competitive system. In the future, this will not only affect market share but may also change the industry's pricing power and expansion pace.
Notably, South Korea's KOSPI index quickly fell after rising in early trading that day, reflecting the market's reassessment of the future competitive landscape of the global memory industry. From a "two-way battle" to a "three-way competition," what truly deserves attention going forward is not just stock price performance, but DRAM price trends, capital expenditures by major manufacturers, and whether AI demand can sustainably support a new industry boom.
$BTC $ETH $LAB Many people forcibly link US tech earnings reports to crypto market trends, but this logic is overly idealistic.
Capital market trading expectations are true, but they cannot be directly extrapolated to the crypto market. Google and Tesla's increased investment in AI only represents their own corporate strategy, not necessarily incremental capital flowing into the crypto space. Institutions allocate risk assets with strict divisions. Technology stocks and crypto assets are two separate evaluation systems, with more of a short-term emotional resonance and no stable transmission logic.
Bitcoin's high-level fluctuations may not necessarily mean capital is optimistic about the future, but rather a game among existing funds. Currently, the market lacks substantial new capital inflows, and relying solely on US market sentiment to drive a rally is unlikely to last.
The claim that Ethereum supports various sectors has been discussed for a long time; conceptual narratives do not necessarily mean real funds are realized. Many hot topics are still at the expected stage and are difficult to convert into tangible on-chain returns in the short term.
Do not overestimate the impact of external news. The crypto community has its own chip structure and contract liquidation rhythm. Even if tech giants continue to bet on AI, if internal funds in the crypto market flee, external positive factors struggle to support the market. Judging crypto trends based on US earnings reports is very limited.
$ETH
$GOOGL
$BTC
#财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative? Deadlock at 65000: Three Forces Tugging, AI Focuses on One Variable
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis
Brothers, the weekend market was like a stagnant pool, with BTC oscillating narrowly around 65000, daily volatility shrinking to less than $1000. But beneath the surface, the tug-of-war among three forces has reached its limit.
First Force: Geopolitical Premium Fades, but Oil Prices Haven't Bottomed
After 13 consecutive days of clashes between the US and Iran, Trump ordered a pause on airstrikes, opening a window for diplomatic talks. Brent crude plunged over 5% from above $100 to $86, quickly eroding geopolitical risk premiums. This is positive for risk assets—lower oil prices ease inflation pressure and cool rate hike expectations.
However, $86 oil is still not low. The Strait of Hormuz transit issue remains unresolved, and the "war premium" on oil prices still has at least $5-10 not fully squeezed out. As long as oil stays above $80, the inflation narrative won't completely fade.
Second Force: ETF Inflows Continue, but Institutional Confidence Wavers
After seven consecutive days of net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, $465 million flowed out over Thursday and Friday last week, breaking the streak. BlackRock's IBIT led the outflows, indicating institutions are returning but remain hesitant—ready to flee at the slightest sign of trouble.
Still, for the whole week, ETFs netted $33.8 million inflow, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows after eight straight weeks of $8.3 billion outflows. The trend is improving, but the foundation is shaky.
Third Force: July Fed Rate Hike—36% Chance or 0%?
This is the most divisive variable. A Reuters survey of 104 economists unanimously bets on no change, but the rate futures market prices in a 36% chance of a hike. 104 vs. 0 sounds stark, but futures markets often reflect policy changes earlier—as "The Big Short" said, economists see "what should happen," traders see "what might happen."
The case for a surprise hike isn't absurd: Brent just broke $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.69%, a high since January 2025. Renaissance Macro's chief economist wrote a report titled "Why Not Hike Now?" questioning, "If you can hike now, why wait until September?"
Since Fed Chair Wash took office, anti-inflation resolve has been emphasized, and FOMC votes supporting hikes are increasing. A July surprise hike would hit risk assets hard; no change but a hawkish statement would also pressure markets; only an unexpectedly dovish stance would be truly bullish.
Conclusion of the Three-Force Game
BTC is stuck around 65000; a breakout upward requires oil prices to keep falling, ETFs to keep buying, and the Fed to turn dovish—all three simultaneously, which is tough.
A breakdown only needs one variable to worsen.
AIX is neither bullish nor bearish today; the strategy is simple: wait for one variable to break first.
If oil falls below 80, that's bullish; if the Fed surprises with a hike, that's bearish. Until these events unfold, direction is a random walk.
Specific Trading Strategy
BTC:
No action near 65000. If oil drops below 80 and ETFs resume inflows, wait to confirm a hold above 65500 on a pullback before entering; if BTC falls below 64000 before the Fed meeting, wait for stabilization between 63500-63800. Stop loss set 0.5%-0.8% below key levels.
ETH:
Same logic as BTC, watch around 1950, key support at 1900-1910, key resistance at 1960-1970.
Core Idea:
Before Wednesday's FOMC decision, doing nothing is the best strategy.
Direction will come sooner or later; be ready with ammo when it does.
💬 Comment below: Do you bet on a July rate hike or not?
Personal opinion, not investment advice. Markets carry risks; be responsible for yourself.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #FederalReserve #FOMC #AITradingAll the weekly matters were piled up together.
The Federal Reserve held its meeting early Thursday morning, and the market is now in turmoil—a 38% chance of a rate hike versus a 70% chance of holding steady, with a rare divergence. Oil prices have just fallen from above $100, cooling inflation, but last week's initial jobless claims of 187,000 hit a new low since 1969, making employment ridiculously tough and hard for the Fed to relax.
On the same day, Microsoft $MSFT and Meta$META released earnings reports, with Amazon and Apple following on Thursday. Google's $GOOGL crashed first last week—AI burned cash to produce its first negative cash flow since going public. If these four companies fail to deliver decent results this week, tech stocks will continue to be hit.
One more thing: FTX initiated the fifth round of compensation on Friday, totaling $900 million. The previous four rounds have already issued 10 billion, and some of this money will flow back into the crypto world.
For $BTC: the short-term 65,000 level is quite delicate. Oil prices fell + ceasefire expectations gave some breathing room, but the AI sector attracted too much capital, with all the funds drained by tech stocks. BTC trying to hit 66,000 yuan is clearly not an option. With the earnings reports released on Wednesday and Thursday, if tech stocks crash, funds may actually flow back into crypto; If tech stocks continue to be strong, BTC will have to hedge at 65,000. Let's wait and see what the Fed says early Thursday morning
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 PAKISTAN ESTABLISHES DEDICATED CRYPTO INVESTIGATION UNIT AMID COMPREHENSIVE FINANCIAL GOVERNANCE STRATEGY □□
The Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) of Pakistan has officially established a dedicated Crypto Investigation Unit under the National Command and Control Centre (NC3). This regulatory enforcement move aims to counter digital asset illicit financial flows, including money laundering, financial fraud, and unlawful activity financing. Adding this specialized investigative body strengthens Pakistan's cybersecurity posture while building a transparent regulatory environment.
The establishment of this investigative unit builds upon the Virtual Assets Act passed by Pakistan's Parliament in March 2026, which established the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA) as a permanent federal regulator. Beyond security enforcement, Pakistan continues to advance national digital asset initiatives, including plans for a national stablecoin, establishing a sovereign Bitcoin reserve, allocating 2,000 MW of power for Bitcoin mining, and partnering to tokenize $2 billion in state assets.
However, these national crypto ambitions face ongoing social and religious challenges. In June 2026, Jamia Darul Uloom Karachi, a prominent Islamic institution, issued a fatwa stating cryptocurrencies do not constitute valid property under Sharia law. In response, PVARA Chairman Bilal bin Saqib urged Islamic scholars to distinguish speculative tokens from fully backed digital assets like stablecoins or blockchain-based sukuk, positioning Pakistan to lead in Sharia-compliant digital finance.
Balancing rigorous security enforcement with forward-looking blockchain initiatives across major exchanges strengthens regional market credibility. Standardized regulatory frameworks offer institutional capital a more secure environment for long-term deployment.
In your opinion, will establishing dedicated crypto investigative units help developing nations accelerate the formal integration and legal framework adoption of digital assets?
(DYOR). $BTC $ETH $SHIB In the morning, Bitcoin and Ethereum both closed higher due to favorable geopolitical risks. Bitcoin is currently holding above the 65,000 mark, while Ethereum reached the 1982 level and is under pressure. In the morning, Lao Yang Shipan's large bing Kongdan successfully secured 559 points of space Luodang. My Shipan style has always followed the strategy of going with the big and rejecting the small. If the trend is bearish, I patiently wait for a rebound to catch and buy a pullback, only taking my own share of profit, not greedy for more, just aiming for a steady and positive finish.
From the current market perspective, the short-term moving average on the 4-hour scale of Bitcoin has turned upward, with price comparisons running above the moving average. The short-term trend has shifted from bearish to bullish, with strong support at 64,800 below. The MACD golden cross is running, and the red bars are showing moderate volume, indicating that bulls have a short-term advantage, but there is no overbought volume increase, indicating there is still room for a slight rally. The lows are still slowly rising, the highs are moving upward, and an upward channel is taking shape. Although there are slight pullbacks and shakeouts along the way, the number of virtual breakouts has decreased, and the trend is gradually strengthening slightly.
In the afternoon, go long on the bullseye market between 64,800 and 65,300, targeting around 67,000
In the afternoon, Ether went long in the 1960-1930 range, targeting around 2000 #Changxin Technology listed, global storage competition adds variables $BTC $ETH 谷歌暴跌7%、市值蒸发3000亿美元。特斯拉创2022年以来最大单周跌幅。
上周的剧本很简单：业绩越好，AI开支越高，跌得越惨。
现在，接力棒交到了微软、Meta、亚马逊手里。
今晚和明晚，三份财报将直接决定——这轮AI焦虑是就此打住，还是继续崩盘。
先说微软。
股价较高点跌了近30%。市场预期每股收益4.21美元，营收874亿美元。
关键看两个数字：
第一，Azure增速。 必须达到或超过39%-40%。低于这个数，市场会立刻翻脸——花了1900亿资本开支，Azure还跑不动，那AI叙事直接裂开。
第二，2027财年资本开支指引。 分析师预期在2200亿美元左右。如果超了，自由现金流的担忧会进一步放大。如果低于预期，市场会松一口气——说明烧钱有节制了。
Azure保增长，CapEx表纪律。两个都达标，微软才能喘口气。
再看Meta。
2026年资本支出指引已经上调到1250亿至1450亿美元，几乎是2025年的两倍。股价年初至今跌了将近10%。
瑞银预计Meta今明两年每股收益几乎持平——AI投入正在直接压垮利润率和经营杠杆。
扎克伯格在赌一件事：AI能把广告变现效率再推一个台阶。
如果Q2广告收入增速撑不住，市场不会给面子。如果增速超预期，AI叙事还能续命。
Meta的财报，本质上是检验AI能不能让广告更值钱。
最后是亚马逊。
2026年资本开支2000亿美元，跟谷歌2050亿一个量级。AWS最新一季度营收跳升28%至376亿美元，创近15个季度最快增速。
但有个数据很扎心：亚马逊过去12个月自由现金流只剩12亿美元。2000亿的资本开支，正在把现金流吞得一干二净。
AWS增速必须持续在30%以上，才能让市场相信这2000亿花得值。如果增速放缓，叠加2000亿的资本开支预期，盘后走势可以参考谷歌。
说句掏心窝的话——
谷歌的暴跌不是意外，是预警。
四家公司2026年合计资本开支约7250亿美元，同比暴增77%。这笔钱花出去，必须看到回报。
华尔街不再为故事买单了。他们要的是数字。
微软的Azure增速、Meta的广告收入、亚马逊的AWS增速——这三组数字，将决定AI叙事是继续发酵，还是彻底熄火。
最后说一句跟咱们相关的事。
科技股财报的盘后波动，跟加密市场从来不是割裂的。
流动性收紧、风险偏好下降——这些宏观信号会传导到每一个高风险资产上。
微软和Meta周三盘后出财报。然后是亚马逊。
该盯盘的盯盘，该避险的避险。
AI叙事能不能稳住，今晚开始揭晓。
$MSFT $META $AMZN
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ The biggest risk is that price increases are mistakenly equated with liquidity diffusion, and the current leverage and depth structure do not support a full bullish turnaround
The current candlestick is upward, but what is the depth data telling you?
Core facts of the original text: BTC, ETH, and SOL prices have all risen, but overall Open Interest has cooled significantly, with order depth thinning and high concentration. Liquidity does not spread in tandem with prices but concentrates in a few small-cap stocks such as JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, MEME, EDEN, and HUMA; Meanwhile, the trading volume and depth of BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, and other stocks have clearly shrunk.
- Market structure changes: Rising prices accompanied by declining OI indicate insufficient willingness to open new leverage, and existing funds tend to be cautious. The narrowing of depth indicates that market makers and retail investors have not increased their positions simultaneously, and liquidity is showing "selective focus" rather than "broad spread." From a derivatives perspective, this is a classic "bullish momentum decay" signal—funding rates are likely to approach neutral or even turn negative, the basis narrows, and squeeze path dependence shifts from "long squeezing shorts" to "waiting for liquidity confirmation."
- Pricing impact: BTC remains the main capital absorber, ETH maintains institutional preference, and SOL serves as the L1 Beta metric. However, the counterfeit end is clearly differentiated, with only a few having narrative support (such as AI concepts like DATA, WLD; High-volatility target HYPE; Retail sentiment indicators ZEC and DOGE) have achieved centralized pricing. This means most altcoins have not gained a systemic premium from BTC's rise but are in a state of "passive follow-up with insufficient depth."
- Bullish path: If BTC can continuously break previous highs and drive a rebound in open interest, and ETH and SOL see simultaneous volume growth, liquidity may spread from a few assets to a broader range of altcoins, forming a gradual warming pattern of "concentration first, then diffusion." This requires seeing funding rates rebound from lows, basis widening, and at least 2-3 non-leading knockoff sectors experiencing sustained volume growth.
- Bearish condition: If BTC consolidates at high levels while OI continues to decline, or if alt depth shrinks further, the current price rise may be just a "local squeeze" by existing funds on a few targets, rather than systemic buying. Failure conditions include: continued deterioration of deep data, negative funding rates, or rapid pullbacks in a core asset (such as HYPE, DOGE) triggering a sentiment reversal.
- Conclusion: The current market is in a state of "price rise, weak structure" and is not a fully long window. A more mature observation is to wait for liquidity signals—whether deep data shifts from concentration to diffusion, and whether OI expands again. Before that, the short-term trend is more likely to maintain divergent volatility rather than a trending upward trend.
Key variables to watch: Can BTC drive a rebound in OI, and whether 2-3 sectors will see simultaneous volume growth on the altcoin side.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #加密市场 #流动性 #衍生品Thanks to the platform for recognizing it. Last week's post was selected for the Creators' Weekly Report, which made me quite happy. Today, I'd like to share some thoughts behind this post with my brothers
The topic itself actually stems from a "discomfort": this morning, I saw Coinbase and MSTR surge, but BTC was still hovering around 68,000. If big money were really rushing, spot trading wouldn't be so calm. I want to understand why I don't want to chase it.
The biggest hurdle when writing was how to make terms like "short market refilling" and "stock swapping" sound like something plain. After all, posting needs to be understandable to the brothers, so I simply broke it down into three "whys," explaining each point clearly in simple words.
The main point I want to express is: a rise in crypto stocks doesn't mean a rise in spot crypto stocks. Don't let stock gains make decisions for BTC. I look at spot confirmation, not stock sentiment.#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
Recently, storage news has been flying everywhere, leaving many people completely baffled!
To put it bluntly: the storage giants can still make a profit in the short term, but the good days of lying back and picking up money are completely over.
Core Plain Language: For now, foreigners still call the shots in high-end HBM, but the pricing power for ordinary memory is slowly shifting.
Let's briefly explain two core points:
HBM = High-end memory dedicated to AI servers, with huge profits and extremely high entry barriers
DRAM = The standard memory modules used in our phones and computers, fiercely competitive
Previously, the storage market was especially straightforward:
Samsung, Micron $MU, and SK Hynix $XSKHY are joining forces, controlling production capacity and prices, raising prices whenever they want—a true oligopoly profiting from it.
But now things are different. Changxin went public, secured large sums of capital, and aggressively expanded production,
Storage has officially shifted from a three-way monopoly to a multi-party contest!
The track must be viewed separately; never confuse the two:
🔥 HBM high-end AI storage
To be honest, they really can't win in the short term.
The technical barriers are too high, and most major AI orders are swept up by Korean companies,
For the next year or two, they'll still be able to eat this lucrative piece of meat steadily.
💻 Standard DRAM memory
This area has completely changed!
Korean manufacturers are now too lazy to make regular memory and are all betting on HBM, originally hoping to cut production and raise prices to harvest the market.
As a result, Changxin's production capacity kept pace and continued to ramp up,
The era of giants arbitrarily controlling prices to cut retail investors has come to an end.
Many people misunderstand: once Changxin goes public, foreigners lose their profits.
Not at all!
The gap in high-end technology cannot be closed overnight; in the short term, giants will still benefit from AI dividends.
But the long-term trend is clear:
The storage industry is completely polarized,
Gradually phasing out those without advanced technology,
A super market driven by production cuts to speculate on cycles will be hard to see again in the future.
Here is a very real market detail:
On the day Changxin was listed, the Korean index surged and then retreated.
Smart money is already pricing in advance: future competitive pressure will only intensify.
By the way, let's talk about our relationship with the crypto community:
AI computing power and storage cycles directly affect the buzz of the crypto computing power sector,
The storage industry's narrative has shifted, and related narratives will eventually be transmitted to the market.
From now on, just focus on two key points:
1. Can the price increase of regular memory last?
2. Changxin's capacity expansion and progress in high-end HBM R&D
To sum up:
In the short term, giants still have more to eat, but in the long term, the era of fierce competition in technology and strength has officially begun.
Risk warning: Capacity release and overseas policies are uncertain; the market is not absolutely one-sided. Haven't updated for three days
Missing you?
Today, let's start by talking about this week's fundamentals:
Over the weekend, the situation in the Gulf region cooled down temporarily, with Brent crude oil dropping about 5.2% and WTI down about 5.4%. US Treasury yields and the US dollar fell simultaneously, and US stock futures rebounded. This combination benefits crypto assets in the short term, as it simultaneously eases expectations of inflation and liquidity tightening.
But the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Official data shows that the FOMC will hold its meeting on July 28–29; The statement will be released around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, and Wash's press conference will be held at 2:30 a.m. Beijing time. The market currently still prices in about one-third of the rate hike probability, meaning the uncertainty of this meeting is significantly higher than that of a typical policy meeting.
Subsequently, at 20:30 Beijing time on July 30, the preliminary US Q2 GDP and June PCE will be released, and the Q2 Employment Cost Index will be released at 20:30 on July 31. In other words, there is a continuous macro volatility window in the latter half of this week.
ETF liquidity has improved but remains unstable:
On July 24, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $240.1 million, ending the previous consecutive inflows;
ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $70.7 million on the day;
However, ETH still saw a net inflow of about $103.9 million that week, and about $337.7 million so far in July.
This indicates that institutional demand has significantly improved compared to June, but still not enough to confirm sustained one-sided inflows.
In the next article, let's talk about the market!
$BTC $XAU