Cato_KT
推特小博主，同步分享内容，宏观/地缘分析，偶然做趋势交易，不带单，没啥实力，看看就好！ Fake it till you make it 得知我命 失之我幸 念头通达 余生坦荡 一位深爱土地的老农，低头耕耘，静待收成；不空想，不妄求，只相信时间与汗水。
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Global Macro Guidance for August 17–23:
The data has already provided the answer; the U.S. economy is shifting from "anti-inflation" to "stall prevention," which needs to be verified this week. The minutes of the July rate-setting meeting reflecting future Fed expectations will be a key focus. Crude oil and Japan remain the two major external risks and continue to be implicit key risks!
Global Macro Guidance for August 17–23: The data has already provided the answer; the U.S. economy has shifted from "anti-inflation" to "stall prevention." This week requires verification, with the July FOMC meeting minutes feedback on the Fed's future expectations becoming the focus. Crude oil and Japan remain the two major external risks and continue to be latent key risks! The macro environment this week is not optimistic. Market anchors are mainly energy and inflation expectations, while the U.S. economy has already moved from anti-inflation expectations to the dangerous edge of stall prevention. If the already fragile economic expectations for energy rebound, beware of rising "stagflation" expectations. The biggest macro change this week is the shift from macro data to policy interpretation and verification. Last week, our macro data provided three answers: Has inflation spiraled out of control again? Temporarily, no. Has U.S. demand weakened? Yes, and significantly more than market expectations. Is the soft landing expectation valid? The short-term soft landing expectation has been shaken. This week, the data interpretation and verification aim to answer three questions: How hawkish was the July Fed meeting minutes? Is the Fed alert to the risk of economic stall? How does the Fed view the risks of inflation and economic stall? Is the U.S. consumer economy experiencing a short-term stall or an expansion of systemic risk? Are crude oil and Japan reintroducing overall inflation or even U.S. stagflation expectations, as well as liquidity risks!? First, the Fed meeting minutes: How hawkish was July? What were the hawkish focuses? Did it interpret employment risks? Did it anticipate economic stall risks in advance? There are no scheduled Fed official speeches this week, and Wash has no speaking agenda, which means that in the face of last week's data, the market cannot promptly obtain Fed officials'...
Weak consumption + energy rebound, stagflation concerns are rising, US economic risks drag down risk assets
The current macro environment is still relatively unfavorable for risk assets overall, as I mentioned in this week's macro framework with basically consistent expectations
Last week's unexpectedly weak consumption data itself triggered concerns about an economic slowdown, and crude oil breaking and holding above $90 at this time has increased inflation expectations. The combination of the two leads to light stagflation expectations, which is the current macro pain point
To note, on the consumption side, pay attention to the earnings reports of several major US consumer giants: Home Depot on Tuesday this week, Target and Lowe's on Wednesday, Walmart on Thursday. Currently, Home Depot's earnings report shows that the US consumer economy is downgrading; although not crashing, the risks are gradually expanding
Next, this week's real estate data + initial jobless claims + PMI + corporate consumption data, if combined with subsequent earnings reports from Target, Lowe's, and Walmart also showing consumption downgrade, then the risk expectation of US economic weakening or even crashing greatly increases. If energy prices remain above 90 this week, light stagflation expectations will inevitably become the main market focus
One more point to note here: theoretically, economic weakening would suppress the September rate hike signal, but if it turns from weakening to crashing, with cliff-like consumption economic data accompanied by high oil prices, then even if the rate hike signal is weakened, it is still unfavorable for risk markets especially
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
Cato_KT
Global Macro Guidance for August 17–23:
The data has already provided the answer; the U.S. economy is shifting from "anti-inflation" to "stall prevention," which needs to be verified this week. The minutes of the July rate-setting meeting reflecting future Fed expectations will be a key focus. Crude oil and Japan remain the two major external risks and continue to be implicit key risks!
August 17–23 Global Macro Guidance: The data has already provided the answer. The shift from "fighting inflation" to "stall prevention" in the U.S. economy needs to be verified this week, with the July meeting minutes focusing on the Fed's future expectations. Crude oil and Japan remain the two major external risks, remaining hidden key risks! This week's macro environment is not optimistic. Market anchors are mainly energy and inflation expectations, while the US economy has moved from anti-inflation expectations to the dangerous edge of stalling. If energy expectations rebound, be cautious of rising stagflation expectations. The biggest macro change this week is shifting from macro data to policy interpretation and verification. Last week, our macro data gave three answers: Has inflation spiraled out of control again? Currently no. Has US demand weakened? Yes, and significantly higher than market expectations. Is the soft landing expectation true? Short-term soft landing expectations shaken. This week's data interpretation and verification require three answers: How hawkish are the Fed minutes in July? Is the Fed focused on caution about economic slowdown? What is the Fed's view on inflation and economic stall risks? Is the U.S. consumer economy experiencing a short-term slowdown, or is systemic risk expanding? Will crude oil and Japan recreate overall inflation or even US stagflation expectations, as well as liquidity risks!? 1. Fed meeting minutes: How hawkish was July? What is the focus of the eagle? Is there an interpretation of employment risks? Have you anticipated the risk of economic slowdown in advance? There were no fixed Fed officials to speak this week, and Wash had no speaking agenda, meaning the market couldn't get Fed officials in time for last week's data
Summary and analysis of the latest US-Iran developments on August 18: Whether the US military strikes or not, Trump has already lost this war!
August 18 Latest Developments and Analysis on US-Iran: Whether the US Military Strikes or Not, Trump Has Already Lost This War! 1. Iranian officials signal military conflict, counter-threatening the US that if it does not comply within the stipulated period, the flames of war will reignite. From diplomatic pressure to military pressure, Iran's intensity is increasing, starting the countdown to US-Iran military risk #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 2. Houthi forces have begun attacking Saudi warships near the Red Sea, clearly spilling over US-Iran geopolitical risks, 3. Media reports that Saudi Aramco has significantly expanded its crude oil export system bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, clearly preparing for the worst-case scenario of a prolonged unfavorable US-Iran situation. 4. Turkish President Erdogan spoke with Trump, requesting to act as a regional mediator in the US-Iran situation. As a NATO member bordering Iran, this signal means Europe can no longer sit still and is beginning to try to participate in US-Iran mediation through proxies. This is seen as a positive signal but is unlikely to show results in the short term. 5. Kpler statistics show that on Monday, 6 cargo ships passed through the strait, but no VLCC or large LNG tankers, and the usual recovery numbers only count as a rebound rather than a full recovery; the actual situation remains unfavorable. 6. On Tuesday, August 18, a cargo ship attempting to pass through the strait was attacked. It is not yet confirmed whether this was an attack by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The reappearance of suspected attacks at this stage undoubtedly adds to the insecurity of strait passage. 7. Reuters reported that between August 12-16, Saudi Aramco has attempted to load 3 VLCCs
Summary and Analysis of the Latest Developments between the US and Iran:
Summary and analysis of the latest US-Iran developments: 1. The Iranian parliament is accelerating the advancement of the "Hormuz Strait Law," with Iran using international legislation to assert sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Once the bill is passed, it will not be favorable to the situation in the strait or to Iran's hostile countries led by the US and the West #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 2. The third tanker of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was attacked; military personnel clashes occurred between Iran and Qatar. Previously, it was confirmed that three Iranian pilots were detained by Qatar, which Qatar later denied. As an important regional mediator, Qatar's deterioration of relations with Iran at this time is not a good sign. 3. The Iranian Foreign Minister clarified again that the current agreement with Oman only concerns the shipping route and does not mean the strait will be reopened. Iran continues to maintain a tough diplomatic stance to prevent energy prices from weakening and to ease pressure on Trump. 4. Kpler data records show that only 5 ships passed through the strait on Saturday, zero on Sunday, with a total of 31 ships last week. The actual shipping situation weakening further stimulates energy price increases. 5. Weekend news revealed that the US previously could not confirm whether the negotiation representatives could represent the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (Iran's hardliners), which led to the 60-day ceasefire agreement being quickly overturned. During this period, the US attempted to contact senior Revolutionary Guard officials. However, Iran denied this. This remains a US "psychological warfare" tactic, aiming to stir up conflicts between Iran's internal leadership and the Revolutionary Guard. 6. The 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is nearing expiration, and neither side has clearly stated whether to extend the agreement
"Bull Market" tells us that to get the market to buy in, you either provide sentiment or value, and the sentiment must be right.
Referring to the crypto space, the awkward situation is exactly this: value is not properly reflected, and sentiment is also lacking, which is a bit like playing rogue—this is the awkward predicament!
Of course, I still maintain confidence and optimism in this industry. After all, holding coins without CX will get you called an idiot! #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
Cato_KT
"Bull Come" feels overall like a low-budget, high-marketing project from its concept to release and then to the launch of the meme.
To say something irresponsible, if viewed from a conspiracy theory perspective, this marketing is quite remarkable and can be seen as a textbook model, even more impressive than Pepe back in the day.
Next is the start of "god-making," followed by a wave of memes. This is a good thing because every bull-bear cycle's end is always first kicked off by a meme wave
"Bull Come" feels overall like a low-budget, high-marketing project from its concept to release and then to the launch of the meme.
To say something irresponsible, if viewed from a conspiracy theory perspective, this marketing is quite remarkable and can be seen as a textbook model, even more impressive than Pepe back in the day.
Next is the start of "god-making," followed by a wave of memes. This is a good thing because every bull-bear cycle's end is always first kicked off by a meme wave
Seeing the current #Bitcoin trend suddenly reminded me of "Inscription on a Humble Room," and I feel every holder should read it a few times to boost confidence
I believe that for the current #BTC, being stuck in this long-term bottom range oscillation phase (where bulls and bears call each other fools) is the right mindset
At present, BTC's trading volume and range amplitude are too small. What is most lacking, I think, is not positive news but negative news. A sensitive negative event is needed to completely clear the selling pressure and then start a new trend
At this stage, continue to expect oscillation and pullback. If the selling pressure clears without breaking 58,000, I think that will be a buying opportunity! #ETF买盘反转，BTC杠杆仓位回升
Actually, since last year, many people haven't noticed that the macro main themes change every week. Unless it's a global major event like the US-Iran conflict, other data and events basically redefine the market weekly, which is why I do a weekly macro summary.
The Friday drop in the US stock market close was actually within my expectations because the week's data combination did not push the probability of a September rate hike below 30% (currently 33%), meaning the data isn't dovish enough to change market pricing.
Secondly, the macro side next week is relatively empty, with basically no data that can truly affect interest rates or macro assets, so the market naturally returns to the current main storyline—the US-Iran conflict or energy price fluctuations.
Since there are currently no obvious positives in the US-Iran conflict and both sides are still in diplomatic negotiations, the market's pre-weekend or next week risk aversion on Friday is normal. Of course, risk aversion is not panic, just a cautious close.
Next week on the macro side, the things to watch besides the July meeting minutes (which are lagging) are the initial PMI data, which currently has too little market weight, and there are no key earnings reports from US stocks.
So, everyone, next week the macro pricing will start anew, which is a test for the trading logic of risk assets. Are you ready to endure the torment of the US-Iran situation? #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约
Cato_KT
The movement of the US stock market after opening gave the market a clear answer. Although this week's inflation and retail data weakened the case for a rate hike in September, it is still far from enough to reverse the situation.
Good news: the US stock market did not move towards defensive trading due to recession or stagflation concerns. Bad news: the probability of a rate hike in September remains stuck at 30%, which is not enough to support risk markets.
After the US market opened, the CME's probability of a September rate hike returned to 30%, with the dollar and bond markets stopping their decline and rebounding. Clearly, the market's confidence in no rate hike in September is still insufficient.
The core factor is that energy prices are still relatively high. If energy prices rise further, causing inflation to rebound in August, and tonight's retail data shows economic acceleration weakening, it will turn into stagflation. Therefore, energy prices are the key factor.
Secondly, the July PCE data on August 26, as well as the August employment and inflation data in September, have not yet been released. The market still lacks confidence in Walsh's hawkish policy. To reverse the situation, it depends on whether subsequent data further consolidates the current combination of weakening inflation, initial employment risks, and economic slowdown.
With the release of retail data, this week's macroeconomic theme ends. Next, the market will focus on the impact of the US-Iran situation and energy price trends!
Note: The current US-Iran situation is not optimistic. The second half and the close of the US stock market may see temporary risk aversion. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
Latest news from Iran: Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on the shipping map of the Strait of Hormuz. The news is true, but the benefits are limited
Latest news from Iran: Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on the shipping map of the Strait of Hormuz. The news is true, but the benefits are limited. Many friends may see this news and think that with the agreement reached, real benefits are coming? Actually, that's not quite right. 1. The shipping map of the strait began key discussions as early as August 5, and passing it now is just an initial stage. This agreement only sets the shipping routes, and does not mean a new joint management agreement of the strait is completed. 2. A complete strait agreement includes the map agreement + management agreement + inspection + fees + security rules to be determined, then the joint text is finalized, and finally the agreement is signed. According to the procedures, this is only the first step. 3. Don't forget the "Hormuz Strategic Act" mentioned by the Iranian parliament yesterday, which has already passed 7 articles. This means that once legislation is successful, even if the strait is passed, Iran has national legislation as proof to refuse passage of any ships from the US, Israel, or any country deemed hostile through its territorial waters. Therefore, the key contradictions between the US and Iran are not yet coordinated, and the strait agreement is difficult to fully achieve. #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 $CL $BZ 4. What to watch next? The focus should shift from US-Iran diplomatic pressure rhetoric. Both sides may have diplomatic rhetoric that does not match private actual communication for negotiation and political needs. Diplomatic rhetoric is needed, but pushing negotiations is another matter. Unless there is an official public statement from the US and Iran, this has some judgment and analysis value for the situation. Attention should be paid to whether the strait agreement continues to be actively promoted and whether shipping vessels in the strait begin to resume navigation.
Compared to Japan's predicament and Sanae Takaichi's extremism in diplomacy and politics, neighboring South Korea seems to have welcomed an outstanding president in modern history. Some media even report that Lee Jae-myung could break the "Blue House curse".
Compared to Japan's predicament and Sanae Takaichi's extremism in diplomacy and politics, neighboring South Korea seems to have welcomed an outstanding president in modern history. Some media even report that Lee Jae-myung could break the "Blue House curse." Since Lee Jae-myung took office, it is clear that he is a "smart person" in diplomatic politics, skillful and thriving. His policy stance shows reliance on the U.S. for security, economic stability with China, proactive easing with North Korea, and maintaining relations in a relatively balanced state. This is something few South Korean presidents in modern history have achieved, demonstrating Lee Jae-myung's diplomatic ability. As for the media's claim about breaking the "Blue House curse," I believe it can be 100% confirmed, but based on Lee Jae-myung's actions, there is indeed a high probability of breaking the curse. The so-called Blue House curse refers to South Korean presidents having great power during their terms but being politically purged after leaving office, with many presidents meeting unfortunate ends. The core issue is the excessive concentration of power. What has Lee Jae-myung done during his term? a. Acknowledged the existence of imperial-style autocracy in the South Korean presidency and attempted to weaken presidential powers; b. Returned some presidential powers to the National Assembly, strengthening the parliamentary system and its authority; c. Proposed changing the single five-year term system to a four-year term with the possibility of re-election. Looking at these policies together, they aim to weaken presidential power, expand the influence of the National Assembly, balance presidential authority, and introduce a re-election system to extend the term and mitigate the drawbacks of the five-year single term system's maximal use of power. I believe this set of small but strategic moves is Lee Jae-myung's cleverness, especially since he has gained recognition in sensitive diplomatic matters involving China, the U.S., and North Korea during his term.