After a comprehensive review, I remain bearish. It's not just emotional hype; the signals from the market are too clear. On the macro level, it's all negative. The probability of a rate hike in September is 68%, US Treasury yields are approaching 4.8%, Japanese government bond yields have broken 3%, liquidity is tightening, not loosening. After Waller turned hawkish, the market's pricing for rate hikes is moving toward "tighter and longer," not "tightening then easing." #日本长债收益率升至高位 On-chain, the chips are loosening. Whales have been transferring $BTC and $ETH to exchanges continuously; a sideways market is a sign of selling, not accumulation. $ETH is weaker than $BTC, and whales have never stopped moving coins to exchanges. On the news front, all positives have lost effect. Broadcom's earnings beat expectations, Snowflake surged 24%, 21 banks issued stablecoins, yet $BTC and $ETH only rose slightly. Positive news can't drive the market, but negative news triggers a stampede. This only shows the market's internal structure is already bearish. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The conclusion now is simple: if the non-farm payroll data beats expectations, it will directly break through 76,000. Even if non-farm is weak, CPI is the ultimate judge, and in Waller's framework, inflation is the core variable; weak employment does not mean no rate hikes. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL — all three are bearish. Until the direction changes, do not easily turn bullish

#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday #30-year US Treasury yield stays above 5% for 41 consecutive days #Crypto treasury expansion faces index eligibility test Is the market too unanimous right now? Everyone is watching nonfarm payrolls, US Treasury yields, September rate hike expectations, and whether crypto treasuries will be blocked by index rules. And the conclusion is: $BTC is going to drop. But I want to ask: What if the nonfarm payrolls on Friday are really bad, and the market starts to reprice rate cut expectations? US Treasury yields go down, the dollar comes under pressure, and risk assets might actually see a short squeeze first. So the most dangerous thing now might not be bad news, but that everyone has already priced in the bad news in advance. Of course, don’t be too optimistic on the other side either. The long-term high 30-year US Treasury yield indicates the liquidity environment hasn’t truly improved; crypto treasury companies are also facing new index eligibility disputes, and the capital market is starting to re-examine the "crazy coin buying" story. (TradingView) So I dare not blindly be bullish, nor blindly be bearish. $BTC: watch if nonfarm payrolls can break the range $ETH: watch when liquidity truly returns $SOL: watch if risk appetite can hold If the whole market turns bearish together on Friday, I’d rather prepare for a violent rebound. But if nonfarm payrolls are strong, long-term bond yields keep rising, and rate hike expectations continue to heat up— then don’t tell stories to the market. Rebound to short!

These two matters actually point to the same core: the market is repricing "scarcity". 📈 $BTC to gold ratio rises to 18.17, hitting a new high since January As of September 4, the $BTC/XAU ratio has climbed to 18.17, meaning 1 $BTC can be exchanged for over 18 ounces of gold. Bitcoin is around $81,000, outperforming gold #BTC to gold ratio rises to a high since January, can the strength continue? · Driving logic: The synchronous rise of both is due to market concerns about "governments diluting debt through currency devaluation." U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen bluntly stated at the G20 that "the world is drowning in debt," which the crypto community ironically views as the "best Bitcoin advertisement of the year." · Key threshold: 18 ounces is the high point since January this year. If it can hold steady, $BTC's relative strength is expected to continue; if it falls, the initiative will return to gold. 🏦 Waller: August CPI will decide September rate hike fate Federal Reserve Governor Waller clearly stated that whether the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will raise rates "will largely depend on the August inflation data." · Scenario one (inflation cooling): If August CPI continues to decline, he supports keeping rates unchanged. · Scenario two (inflation rebound): If the data is strong, he will consider supporting a rate hike. Waller's overall tone is dovish; after his remarks, the probability of a September rate hike briefly dropped to about 50%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.34% #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息

There are six four-hour periods in a day. Could you hold on during those four hours last night? $ETH surged directly from 2,379 to 2,530. The shorts just got liquidated, and the bulls pulled it up immediately after, trapping those who chased in. News-driven market, all technical indicators failed. Before the non-farm payrolls release, keep your hands off #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息

Waller: Whether to raise rates in September depends on August CPI #Waller: August inflation decides if rates hike in September Federal Reserve Governor Waller clearly stated on Thursday: whether the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will raise rates "will largely depend on the August inflation data." If the August CPI continues to cool down and moves toward the 2% target, he tends to support keeping rates unchanged; but if inflation data shows strength and the disinflation process reverses, he will consider supporting a rate hike. The August CPI released on September 11 is the final judge. The good side: After Waller's remarks, the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63% to around 50%, and U.S. Treasury yields fell. $BTC returned above $81,000 after three days, and $ETH reclaimed 2,500. Polymarket's rate hike probability expectation dropped from 59% to 42%. The market is pricing in a "no rate hike" expectation. The bad side: Waller did not close the door on a rate hike. He warned that "inflation may not need to accelerate significantly to prompt me to support tightening policy." If August CPI heats up beyond expectations — currently the market expects a year-on-year 3.4% — he will directly turn to support a rate hike. At that time, $BTC and $ETH will most likely come under pressure again. In three words: watch the CPI. Before September 11, it's all a game 😂😂😂

Looking at K-line indicators is not as good as looking at the news; this saying really holds true in the recent market. Technical indicators are insignificant compared to macro news. $BTC broke through 81,000, RSI pulled from oversold to mid-level, but does it matter? A single sentence from Waller sent the price flying 5% #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The real variables are never hidden in the chart lines but in the expectation gaps. You focus on MACD golden and death crosses, while the market focuses on Waller's speech and nonfarm payroll data; the levels are vastly different. It's not to say technical analysis is completely useless. In a sideways market, indicators can help you find positions, but when big news hits, all supports and resistances are paper-thin. A single data point can pierce through. What you really should watch is what the market is pricing in. When rate hike expectations cool down, $BTC bounces; when data exceeds expectations, $BTC drops. Indicators are just lagging signals; the news is the source of direction. Of course, this is not telling you to chase the news. Chasing after news once it comes out often means paying the price. The point of watching the news is to anticipate the market's reaction direction in advance, not to chase after the news after it lands #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引

Watching $XPL and $ARB surge wildly these past two days, I felt an irresistible itch, almost rushing in. But reason tells me: the biggest taboo in dollar-cost averaging is chasing the rally. $XPL is driven by the upcoming launch of Plasma One's Visa card, and $ARB benefits from the Robinhood Chain ecosystem boost. Both have solid stories behind their sharp rises #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温. There's a reason for the strong gains. But the more this happens, the more you need to ask yourself a few questions: 1. After a big surge, is it still "dollar-cost averaging"? The essence of dollar-cost averaging is accumulating chips at low levels, not grabbing chips at high levels. Jumping in now means buying emotions, not value. 2. Have you checked the unlocking risks? Both tokens have a large amount of tokens unlocking soon, so short-term selling pressure can't be ignored. Chasing at the peak might leave you stuck for half a year. 3. If it drops back to the starting point tomorrow, can you hold on? If yes, try a small position; if not, patiently wait for a pullback. So my decision is: add these two tokens to the watchlist, but don't rush to buy. Wait for this heat to pass, for the price to pull back to key levels, then enter in batches. Dollar-cost averaging is a marathon, not a 100-meter sprint.

-364.58%! This isn't about how much money was lost, this is a very direct market lesson. The hardest part about shorting is never the unrealized loss, but that you clearly feel the position is already very high, yet the market keeps grinding you down. But I still say: $BTC not falling doesn't mean it can't fall. In this kind of high-level oscillation market, I'd rather wait for a rebound to short than chase longs when emotions are at their wildest #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Short on the rebound! Short on the rebound! Short on the rebound! #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $ETH $SOL

News like this, to put it simply, is just the market finding a directional excuse for itself #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 Waller says dovish, the market surges up; tomorrow when the non-farm payroll data comes out, if the data is good, it will crash down again. The market doesn't rise or fall based on the news itself, but based on the gap between the news and expectations. Expectations have already been priced in, so what's left is to see how the market interprets the data once it lands #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 So news can only tell you what the market is currently focusing on, it can't tell you for sure what will happen next. Rising before non-farm payrolls doesn't mean it will keep rising after, it could also turn bearish once the good news is fully priced in #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The real actionable point is the moment after the data lands and market sentiment stabilizes, not betting on direction before the news comes out.👊 $BTC $ETH $SOL #$BTC #$ETH #$SOL #消息面 #非农数据

The market changed overnight, with $BTC bouncing from 77,000 straight up to 81,000! $ETH reclaimed 2,500, and $SOL also rose above 105. But looking closely, this surge is not due to a fundamental reversal; it’s driven by sentiment recovery from news combined with short squeeze liquidations #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Federal Reserve Governor Waller dropped a dovish hint, which was the most direct trigger. He said if inflation continues to cool, rates should remain unchanged, pushing the probability of a September rate hike down from 66% to around 50%. The market immediately amplified this signal—initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, adding signs of labor market cooling, triggering a chain of short liquidations, and prices were pushed up accordingly #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 However, from the market details, the quality of this rebound is not very high. After $BTC touched 82,000, it quickly fell back and is now hovering around 81,000, a typical spike-and-fall pattern. Although $ETH returned to 2,510, institutional wallets transferred 167,800 ETH to CEX over the past three days, about $400 million, so selling pressure between 2,430-2,450 has not disappeared. $SOL surged the most, but high-beta assets tend to rise fast and fall fast #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验

If I had to pick only one in this bull market, I wouldn’t bet everything on a single asset; I’d build a portfolio. Three assets, three completely different profit logics #FOMC last data set before Friday’s nonfarm payrolls $BTC for certainty — institutional channels are fully open, ETFs are accumulating, strategies are buying, BitMine is hoarding. When it dips, there are buyers ready; it’s a ballast-level presence. $ETH for application ecosystem — stablecoins, tokenization, DeFi all run on it. 21 banks plan to issue stablecoins, all running on Ethereum. As long as the on-chain economy exists, $ETH has value support #21 financial institutions plan to launch USD stablecoins $SOL for high elasticity — up over 30% in a month, Grayscale calls it the “crypto financial marketplace.” If you can handle volatility and want to bet on elasticity, $SOL is the first choice. But it can also drop sharply, so position sizing must be controlled. How to allocate depends on whether you’re conservative or aggressive. Conservative means more $BTC, aggressive means more $SOL, and $ETH sits in the middle to capture ecosystem dividends. 👊

$BTC just broke above 82,000, and $ETH also returned near 2,510, pushed by news. Federal Reserve Governor Waller gave a dovish speech—saying if inflation continues to cool, rates should remain unchanged—directly feeding the market a sweet treat. The September rate hike expectations fell from their peak, and risk appetite briefly warmed up. Short squeeze also helped push; just now nearly $86 million worth of shorts were liquidated, and short-term buying was pushed up accordingly #FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payrolls But the biggest feature of this news-driven rally is that it comes fast and goes fast. The real test is Friday's nonfarm payrolls, with the market expecting an increase of 58,000 jobs. If the data beats expectations, rate hike expectations will heat up again; if the data weakens, the market may turn to recession trades. Neither side is easy to navigate, so the direction is uncertain before the data release. #EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance Looking for short opportunities above: $BTC: 82,000-82,500 is a key recent resistance zone. If stagnation signals appear around here, it could be a short entry point. Support is near 77,000; if the rebound lacks volume follow-through, shorts can be held for a while. $ETH: 2,430-2,450 has obvious supply pressure—whales are transferring coins to exchanges, and short-term ETF inflows are insufficient to absorb this level of selling. ETH is likely to face resistance in this range. Treat this wave as a rebound, not a reversal. Wait for exhaustion signals before acting, and avoid heavy positions before the nonfarm payrolls.👊