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Mulight沐光
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翻三星和SK海力士的新闻看到一组数字,有点坐不住了。
三星和SK集团刚跟美国科技巨头签了$9500亿的芯片长期供货协议,签到2030年。NVIDIA、博通、谷歌全部锁定了韩国内存产能。
我对存储芯片的印象还停在周期股阶段。但SK海力士65%的收入现在来自HBM高带宽内存这一个品类,上个月刚在纳斯达克IPO融了$265亿,创了半导体行业纪录。
这背后的信号很直接:美国科技巨头按照未来5到10年的AI算力增长曲线在提前锁定产能,短期波动不影响这个级别的决策。
HBM这条线的结构性变化才刚刚开始。MU美光、SK海力士ADR、三星——存储赛道值得重新定价。
以上不构成投资建议,判断请基于自己的研究。
TSMC's May revenue increased by 30% year-over-year, and AI chip demand has not slowed down at all.
What does this figure mean for the entire industry chain:
TSMC's own advanced process 3nm/5nm capacity is fully loaded, with AI/HPC orders as the main driving force. Upstream, ASML's EUV lithography machines and Applied Materials' deposition equipment delivery times are still being extended. Downstream, NVIDIA's H200/B200, AMD's MI300X, and Broadcom's custom ASICs are all increasing orders.
There are also new signals on the demand side: Alphabet just issued $8 billion in bonds specifically to build AI data centers. Ray Dalio publicly warns about an AI bubble while heavily holding 6 AI stocks, honestly saying he doesn't want to hold positions.
Oracle is reporting earnings tonight; cloud revenue growth is the next checkpoint to test AI demand. Whether TSMC's 30% growth can continue also depends on whether downstream customers will reduce capital expenditures due to valuation pressures.
Core industry chain targets: upstream equipment TSMC/ASML/AMAT/LRCX, downstream chips NVDA/AMD/AVGO, and terminal cloud providers MSFT/GOOGL/ORCL.
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