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Serenity的中文贴
Show original AMDUSDTperpetual20xBuyOpen position
再补充一下大盘的期权结构
标普500从 FOMC 恐慌低点反弹了接近 500 点以后,最近 4 个交易日基本都被锁在 7700–7800 之间震荡。8 月 10 日收在 7753.02,全天只跌了 0.06%,说明目前市场并没有明显的方向性抛压,还是在高位消化前面的涨幅。
从 GEX 结构来看,7700–7800 正好是目前最密集的 Gamma 区域,这也解释了为什么最近几天指数一直被钉在这个区间里。
7800 行权价附近已经出现比较明显的看涨资金累积,主要来自 Call 买入和 Put 卖出。短期虽然指数还没有真正突破,但衍生品市场的结构依旧偏多。再往远一点看,8000 这个整数关口的 GEX 正在快速累积,而且明显高于其他行权价。
所以还是维持之前的判断:短线 7700–7800 继续震荡。只要下面没有出现明显破位,8000 依旧是后面非常重要的磁吸目标。
$QQQ 这边也差不多
700 是目前最关键的 Pivot。只要 700 不破,整体还是偏多。
短线我更倾向于先回踩 4 小时 EMA21,也就是 710 附近。这里同时接近上周四 8 月 6 日的708低点,我认为正常回调大概率不会有效跌破这一带。
如果 710 附近回踩确认支撑,下一步还是看 QQQ 再去挑战 $750。
期权端也能看到类似结构,GEX 已经向上延伸到 $750,甚至 800–900 这些更远的行权价都开始出现远期买盘异动。当然,这并不代表 QQQ 会直接一路涨到 800 或 900,但至少说明中长期资金依旧在往更高的位置布局。
所以交易剧本很简单:QQQ 回踩 710(4H EMA21),只要守住,继续看多到 750。700只有有效跌破,才要开始认真考虑结构是不是发生了变化。
Today the overall market is still oscillating at a high level. Before the CPI release, I don't expect a clear one-sided move; it will mostly fluctuate around key levels. The directional choice will most likely wait until Wednesday's CPI release.
S&P
The S&P is less than 0.5% away from the all-time high of 776.81, but multiple attempts to break through 775–777 have failed, showing some short-term double top signs.
The most important level here is 776.85. Only a volume-backed breakout and hold above this can completely negate the daily chart top risk and continue to set new all-time highs. On the downside, first watch 771.5–772, then 770 and 767.8. If 767.8 breaks, the 1-hour double top is basically confirmed, so be cautious of a further daily-level pullback. The most comfortable re-entry zone is 755–760, where multiple supports converge.
$QQQ
Currently weaker than SPY, still some distance from the previous high at $748.
On the downside, key supports are near the daily EMA21 around 706, the 701.59 gap, and the 700 psychological level, which overlap. If the gap is filled and the price stabilizes around CPI, that would be very positive.
As long as the 700 area holds, this pullback is a fresh buying opportunity.
$NVDA
Dropped nearly 3% today and broke below the previous day's low of $220.66.
No rush to buy here; first watch $214, then the daily EMA21. The 210–216 range is a good dip-buy zone. If it holds, we could see the previous high of 236 before earnings. The long-term AI CapEx thesis remains intact, but short-term overextension calls for a shakeout. Wait for a stop-loss signal near support before buying again.
Moreover, long-term capital for AI infrastructure is still flowing in. Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and others are pushing a global AI infrastructure financing plan that could reach $500 billion, providing long-term support for GPUs, data centers, and the entire AI industry chain.
The data center sector has been quite volatile recently.
$CIFR, $NBIS, $IREN have been under pressure lately. One disturbance comes from the Texas power grid audit, with market concerns that future data center power approvals and expansions may face stricter regulations. Preliminary results are expected around August 20.
But more importantly in the short term are this week's earnings for $CRWV and $NBIS. Orders, backlog, CapEx, and expansion guidance will impact the entire AI data center sector. If demand remains strong, $CIFR and $IREN could recover. Otherwise, valuations might continue to be cut. So for now, this sector is waiting for catalysts to confirm direction.
$TSLA is moving more independently.
After breaking 329.57, the daily chart formed a clear reversal pivot, and the weekly chart shows a bottom pattern similar to a Morning Star/Hammer. The first target is 342, near EMA21. After breaking this, the next resistance is the $372 gap.
If you have positions near 342, consider taking some profits, and hold the rest to see if it can reach $372.
$PLTR
Previous short-term bearish signals have been invalidated; the bullish trend is very strong. Don't short against the trend on this stock.
However, it's currently far from support and has already risen significantly, so it's neither good to short nor to chase. Continued gains are not surprising, but new entries have average odds. Waiting for a decent pullback is more comfortable.
Finally, about $GLD.
Gold remains strong after breaking 400, and seasonally August to early September is usually strong, so continue to be bullish. The next target is 4500; only a breakout there will open the way to 5000. Without a breakout, expect a pullback to the daily EMA21 for consolidation.
Additionally, global tech fund inflows have exceeded $131 billion this year, setting a record.
So the market's problem now is not a lack of money but high short-term levels and full expectations, needing new catalysts to push further.
This is why this week's CPI is so critical. Wednesday's CPI is followed by PPI, retail sales, and the Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Before the data release, I lean toward the market maintaining high-level oscillation. After the data lands, we will see which direction the market chooses. #本周三CPI公布,9月加息定价会改写吗?
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