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CME FedWatch tool, probability of a rate hike in September: 85%→90%. Three days ago it was still fluctuating around 70%, but once the CPI data came out on Friday, it skyrocketed. But what really gave me chills wasn’t this number. It was Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs changed its stance. Previous judgment: maintain interest rates unchanged. Friday’s research report flipped: a 25 basis point hike in September. Here’s the exact quote from Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle, take a close look: "With the market pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a rate hike, if the Fed chooses to stand pat, it will trigger severe market volatility, which the committee wants to avoid." In plain English: We’re not saying a hike is necessary. We’re saying if the Fed doesn’t hike, the market will crash. Goldman Sachs isn’t predicting the Fed. Goldman Sachs is delivering the market’s final ultimatum to the Fed. UBS also backed down. Previous judgment: keep rates unchanged throughout 2026. Latest adjustment: 25 basis point hikes in both September and December, with the federal funds rate eventually reaching 4.00%-4.25%. Reason? Employment data blew past expectations, and July’s PCE inflation hit 3.7%. The Wall Street Journal compiled 20 institutions, 16 of which bet on a September hike. The "smart money" on Wall Street has collectively turned bearish—how long has it been since you saw this scene? But the most painful part is here. JPMorgan’s Chief Economist Michael Feroli spoke a hard truth: "The reason for a hike next week is simple—the core PCE inflation has been above 3% every month this year, and there has been little progress recently toward the 2% target." Note the logic chain: Inflation hasn’t come down → sufficient reason to hike → market prices in 90% → Fed must hike → otherwise market crashes The Fed’s decision-making power is being eaten away bite by bite by the market’s pricing power. Waller said at Jackson Hole that "there is work to do," and now the market has turned this hawkish promise into a noose around the Fed’s neck. Bloomberg economists are even harsher: if the Fed doesn’t hike, Waller’s credibility will be completely lost. What does this mean for crypto? Bitcoin surged to $79,837 on Friday, then was kicked back to $76,040, finally closing at $77,438. The golden cross confirmed, then disappeared again. Why? Because the rate hike expectations directly pushed up the real yield on the dollar, suppressing Bitcoin’s appeal as a "non-yielding asset." But there is one data point worth remembering: Within 30 days of core CPI beating expectations, Bitcoin’s average gain is 2.13%. What does this mean? The "bad news is priced in" scenario may already be unfolding. Huatai Securities said: "Market rate hike expectations are heating up, but gold and U.S. stocks are rising, long-term U.S. Treasury yields are falling, and the market seems to feel the 'bad news is priced in.'" If the rate hike lands on September 17 + Waller’s speech isn’t hawkish enough—risk assets may see a "boot drop" rebound. If the hike + Waller is more hawkish than expected—the second repricing will put Bitcoin’s $76,000 support to a real test. When Wall Street collectively leans toward a rate hike, the Fed no longer has the option to "stand pat." The market isn’t predicting the Fed; the market is forcing the Fed to make a choice. $ETH $BTC $XAU #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期