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Position Daily Report: Tug of War Between Bulls and Bears, Mid-term Bullish Outlook
Today's Sentiment: 50% Bullish, 32% Neutral, 18% Bearish, with clear divergence. Community sentiment leans bullish: US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows of 2.65 billion over five consecutive days, with a single-day inflow of 3.47 billion; Tether announced USDT integration with Bitcoin via RGB/Lightning Network, and Morgan Stanley is also in talks; Whale bc1qdp has accumulated 2,460 coins over twenty days at an average price near 79,000, exchange withdrawals are increasing, tightening supply; Technically, there are expectations for Shielded Bitcoin privacy upgrades and quantum security.
However, risks remain: US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.18%, the shadow of rate hikes persists; long-term holders net sold 231,000 coins during the rebound; Liquid Network was hacked for 320 million; the EU warns of quantum threats.
Mid-term remains bullish, with institutions and whales providing support, but macro interest rates and security vulnerabilities are landmines. Pullbacks can be used to accumulate in batches, hold spot firmly, and avoid being shaken out by volatility.
$ETH $DOGE
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
⚠️For review and communication only, not investment adviceThe market might be expecting: ETFs to turn positive within the year, six consecutive days of net purchases, and the second phase of the bull market is coming. But the reality is a different path. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days since September 17, totaling about $2.84 billion. After a single-day peak of about $999 million on the 21st, the inflows have sequentially shrunk over three days to about $715 million, $347 million, and $191 million. On the price side, OKX spot hit a high of about $87,399 on September 22. The high on September 25 was about $85,259 but failed to hold, currently reported at about $84,072 (September 26, 07:23 CST). The funding rate is about 0.0015%, nearly flat, and the story of crowded longs squeezing shorts does not add up. OKX perpetual open interest has fallen from about 30,700 BTC on September 23 to about 28,400 BTC, and leverage is also cooling down. The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, with about a 70% chance of another hike in October; the macro environment has not suddenly become friendly. Strategy added 950 BTC in cash that week, a scale far smaller than the single-day ETF peak, unable to support a standalone narrative. What to watch is not how many billions more were subscribed, but whether there is volume to reclaim above $85,259 after the subscription slowdown.BTC may have dropped, but this group of whales has been quietly accumulating: increasing holdings by 114,000 coins over more than two months
$BTC price is still fluctuating, but there is a very interesting signal in the on-chain chip changes: a group of mid-sized whales not only haven't fled, but have been buying continuously from July until now.
The logic behind this rise is very clear: whales keep accumulating → marginal tightening of circulating chips → selling pressure absorbed during the decline → once spot demand strengthens again, the upward price elasticity may be amplified. So what’s really worth watching now is not just when BTC will rebound, but whether this group of addresses will continue buying after increasing their holdings by 114,000 coins. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ $BTC ▍🔴 BTC Quick Report: Sideways at 83,700 over the weekend, don't bet on direction
Current price around 83,800. Options settlement night landed smoothly, Deribit expiry scale did not cause a dump, the 83,000-84,000 range hasn't broken for three days. ETF net inflows for three consecutive days, neutral funding rate, stable spot-futures basis — leverage is not crowded, no fuel for one-sided liquidation. US stocks closed slightly lower on Friday; next week's core conflict in US stocks remains the US debt 5.11%.
▍📍 Key Levels
Resistance above at 84,900-85,300, then 86,000, 87,400. Support below at 83,000 gap, 82,281 structural neckline, 80,000 bottom line. Dealer hedging concentrated between 83,500-85,000; after settlement, this range becomes a gravity zone, short-term likely to continue grinding near 84,000.
▍🎯 Trading Plan
Entry: Buy first tier on pullback to 82,300-83,200; conservatively wait for 80,500-81,500; chase on volume break above 85,300.
Targets: 85,300 → 86,000-87,400, if stable then look to 90,000.
Stop loss: Unconditionally exit if daily close falls below 82,000, then look down to 80,000.
▍⚠️ Weekend liquidity is thin, high chance of spikes, avoid placing orders at round numbers. Macro vacuum period, wait for next week's US stocks + CPI for direction, light positions 20-30% for the most comfortable weekend.
Not investment advice, trade at your own riskThis week, it was first held back by bonds, then relaxed by oil prices on Friday. The index closed its first weekly gain in three weeks, with the structure unchanged. On Friday, the Dow 51,829 rose 479 points, up 0.9%. The S&P 7,743 rose 39 points, or 0.5%, still 0.7% short of its August high. The Nasdaq 27,069, up 129 points, up 0.5%. The Russell 2000 was almost flat. For the week, the S&P rose 1.2%, the Nasdaq 2.1%, the Dow 0.3%, and the small cap fell 0.8%. Year-to-date, the S&P rose about +13%, the Nasdaq +17%, and the Dow about +8%. Friday's rebound was clean: as soon as oil eased, stocks rose. Brent fell about 2%, closing near 104, while WTI returned to the 92 level. Fueling rumors of US-Iran engagement entering the technical layer, Hormuz's reopening was repriced. The 10-year yield hit 5.23% intraday, near the 2007 high, then pulled back. The 2-year term dropped to 4.86%. But the 30-year yield still closed at 5.5%, marking the first time in 22 years it has reached this level. The short-term side is a bit looser, but the long side hasn't retreated. Stocks are rising because of diplomatic premiums, not because financing costs have already fallen. The summit was held on a softer note. Trump called the talks "friendship, strength, and success," planning another visit to China in November, with details to be released on Monday. The trade truce had already been extended to January. The market gave a rating of attitude, but did not price a major tariff cut or Dasong chips. Michigan consumer confidence at 48.1, slightly better than expected but lower than August;I almost relaxed my own opening position rules just now, only to force a reason to rush in on the intraday chart.
The mouse hovered over the buy button for almost half a minute, but in the end, I forcibly pressed Esc.
To be honest, many times the reason I force myself to lose money is not some sudden black swan event, it's purely because the 20,000+ in my account is lying too quietly, and my mind feels restless if I don't stir things up a bit. Admitting "I am currently powerless" is actually quite embarrassing, but it's much better than using real money to relieve boredom.
Closed the software, today whoever wants to rush in can go ahead, I'll admit defeat first.
$BNB $CAKE $TWT $UNI news about the launch of Aerodrome Slipstream V3 is not a sudden negative for UNI (Uniswap), but a signal of intensified medium- to long-term competitive pressure.
1. Core event interpretation: What is Aerodrome doing?
Simply put, Aerodrome (the leading DEX on the Base chain) has launched the V3 upgrade, focusing on two main points:
Money grabbing (MEV internalization): Previously, MEV (Maximal Extractable Value, usually money taken by arbitrage bots or miners) generated from transactions was taken by others. Now the protocol runs its own auction and distributes this money to liquidity providers (LPs) and token holders (sAERO).
Efficiency grabbing (4000x capital efficiency): It continues to use Uniswap V3's concentrated liquidity design but adds dynamic fees, allowing LPs to earn more and more steadily.
Subtext: Aerodrome is not only the leader on the Base chain (holding over 60% market share), but now aims to raise its "earning ability" and "user experience" to a higher level, with plans to integrate Optimism's Velodrome in Q2 2026 to become a cross-chain giant directly competing with Uniswap.🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H
BTC sets the rhythm. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta demand.
If activity fails to follow price, confirmation becomes weaker.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC strengthen → 🚀 Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC weaken → ⚠️ Divergence
Respect the confirmation layer. 🔥🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H
BTC controls the framework. ETH measures participation, while ZEC tracks risk appetite.
Price alone is incomplete without supporting activity.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC expand → 🚀 Momentum
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC fade → ⚠️ Narrow Breadth
Let breadth validate structure. 🔥In this round, half of the position was passively stopped out due to a spike. Currently, among the mainstream coins in the market, only SOL is strong. This is not a good sign, but I still remain bullish. The most likely scenario is a consolidation upward followed by a rapid spike upward. I will move my stop profit and stop loss upward along with the position. I cannot let a profitable trade turn into a losing one.The opponent pushes the pawn to the seventh rank and still manages to smile, but in my mind, I've already calculated the next seventeen moves. $ETC has surged 5.92% in 24 hours; this is not an offensive, but a lone soldier losing the support of the pawn chain—the further it advances, the less room there is to retreat.
Looking at the board: the short-term Bollinger Bands price has risen above the 80th percentile, with only 1.4% breathing room to the upper band, while there is a full 6.0% gap to the lower band; the mid-term is even more extreme, at the 86th percentile, with only 1.2% distance to the upper band and 7.4% beyond the lower band. The short-term RSI has reached 65.6, crossing the 64 line, but the long-term RSI remains near the midpoint at 51.1—frontline pawns are deep in enemy territory, while the rear pieces have yet to move. This is not a coordinated attack; it is a classic unsupported assault.
A true grandmaster would not chase pieces in such a position. I choose the exchange square: 7.38. This position is the intersection of upper resistance and the bearish pawn chain, 6.0% above the current price. I place my piece there and wait for it to collide on its own. If it doesn't, I lose nothing; if it does, the midgame unfolds.
Short-term overheating without long-term confirmation—this structure has only one name in my game records: a false offensive. With only 1.4% room to the upper band, it must release 6.9% to 10% downward space—this trade-off's odds are clearly written. My stop loss is set at 8.10, 16.3% above entry; this is the only escape square I leave for the opponent and the sole proof I admit I miscalculated.
Positioning is like the shape of the army. Lone soldiers must be abandoned, and the earlier the better. Floating losses are not losses; they are the fees before exchanging pieces.
📉 Short:
Entry: 7.38 (current price +6.0%)
Take Profit 1: 6.27 (-10.0%)
Take Profit 2: 6.48 (-6.9%)
Stop Loss: 8.10 (+16.3%)
The key to the midgame is never how many pieces are captured, but who first forces the opponent into an endgame with no good moves—this time, I make the first move.$BTC 9.26 Trading Notes: Only Above the Lifeline Is There October
On September 26, the BTC market has only one core issue left: whether the 81000–82000 range can hold. This is not an ordinary support but the lifeline of this bullish round.
If it breaks down effectively, the expectation of 92000 in October is basically gone, rebound highs will gradually decline, and the market will shift to defense. Conversely, as long as this range holds, it is highly likely that the end of September will continue to operate within the large 82000–88000 range. The recent 4000-point back-and-forth between 87000 and 83000 looks more like a shakeout rather than a trend end. Holding the lifeline means October still has the qualification to challenge 88000 or even test 90000.
Reference point mapping:
87500 ≈ late August 79500 | 88000 ≈ late August 81000
83000 ≈ last month 76000 | 82000 ≈ last month 75000
In other words, although the current price is high, structurally it is still replicating the previous key steps.
In terms of operation, going long must include stop-loss, with the defense position set at 82000 to guard against a one-sided decline after a break. Do not relax risk control just because the leverage is low: even a 5x short position must have a stop-loss, as sudden BTC short squeezes can also cause direct liquidation.
In short: Above 82000, the trend is oscillating bullish; below 82000, first protect your position before looking for opportunities.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $400 million, with longs accounting for $298 million, and over 92,000 people buried. The largest single liquidation was on Binance ETHUSDT, $11.48 million, which is not a volume retail investors can withstand. Market sentiment is already very fragile, and longs are repeatedly being liquidated.
Just finished my shift, put my thermos on the desk, and stared at the screen watching SAGA.
SAGA current price is 0.0356, the technical death cross has already formed. MACD crossed below the yellow and white lines, selling volume has clearly increased, short-term trend is very weak. The liquidation map is even more direct; a large amount of long liquidation chips are stacked in the 0.030 to 0.033 area below. Once it breaks the fragile support at 0.0356, the liquidity gap will directly drag the price down to sweep those chips. The upper trapped positions are also heavy, so any rebound just fuels the shorts. At this position now, it’s a slow decline searching for a bottom, and it could lure longs before accelerating downward at any time.
In terms of operation, the direction is biased bearish. Entry zone: wait for a rebound near 0.0365 to 0.0372 before considering short, don’t chase. Take profit first target at 0.0325, second target at 0.0305. Stop loss above 0.0385; if broken, admit the mistake. Around the current price of 0.0356, it’s not recommended to act; wait for the structure to clear.
$SAGA
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
@OKX星球 $XPL I've been trading coins for over two years, started making random moves and lost some money. Later, I wanted to write a program for automation, but due to the lagging nature of technical indicators and an impatient mindset focused on recovering losses, the program has been left unfinished. Then I started shorting the gainers list with a high win rate, feeling recovery was in sight, but ended up being taken out by rave. Currently, I'm floating a loss of 15,000 U, with less than 2,500 U left in the account. I've been following xpl since its launch, and this is my only operation where I added to a floating profit—let's see if there's a surprise. Going forward, I will organize my shorting strategy and restart the automation program. Main takeaway: control risk, avoid random operations, and protect the principal.LINK does something so dull that no one tells stories about it; it quietly connects on-chain and off-chain, but without it, most of DeFi would be just an empty shell. DOT claims to connect all chains, with ambitions so big it was mocked, yet those who mocked it are still using its approach to build things. LTC is as old as a relic, but it survives every market crash, and survival itself is an answer. UNI made ordinary people feel for the first time that an exchange can have no boss, which is a revolution far beyond what many realize.
The cruelest thing in this market is not the drop, but making you start doubting your own judgment.
But I want to say, your judgment is not necessarily wrong, it just hasn't been validated yet.
Waiting is never the choice of the weak; it is a required lesson for those who truly want to win.
Don't leave before dawn. BTC tested the $82.8K–$83.1K zone twice and bounced back both times — $83.13K is the level to watch before confirming a double bottom. On Friday morning, BTC briefly dropped to $82,832 before quickly recovering. By the evening, selling pressure pushed the price back to $83,301, but it still hadn't broken through the previous bottom. This makes the $82.8K–$83.1K zone form a structure quite similar to a double bottom on the 4H chart. The recent decline likely resulted from a combination of profit-taking pressure, weakening macro sentiment, and leveraged positions The market trend over the past two days can be summed up in one sentence: $BTC is stagnant, while altcoins take turns rising. Today, there's a cleaner figure: dominance dropped from 58.2% to 56.5%. What happened last night: ① BTC dominance declined, marking the most critical structural change in this wave. BTC closed at 84,094 (-0.26%), with dominance falling by 1.7 percentage points (58.2% → 56.5%). When BTC fell below 84,000, it triggered over $560 million in liquidations, but the money did not exit — the focus shifted to ETH, SUI, SEI, NEAR. ② Breadth continued to expand. Among 477 perpetual contracts, 358 rose, 118 fell; 20 rose over 10%, 60 rose 5%~10%, and only 23 fell more than 3%. ③ The rally spread from the "narrative leaders" to "oversold rebounds." Top gainers: ONE +47.69% (152M), MUBARAK +23.75%, SEI +20.17%, ENA +19.93% (194M), SUI +17.58% (332M). SUI has risen for four consecutive days: 09-23 -5.07% → 09-24 +4.96% → 09-25 +9.88% → 09-26 +7.99%. ④ The only mainstream "bear getting hit": SOL. Current price 122.20 (+4.70%), distance $CORE For years, the project team has only been repeating the same story about staking security?
Staking to ensure security is fundamentally the baseline for public blockchains, just like cars come with brakes; it shouldn't be touted as a major benefit year after year.
Tying staking to BTC to leverage its story and ride on Bitcoin's consensus, yet after several years, the practical and usable ecological applications remain completely absent.
Using this eternally unfalsifiable narrative to flood screens repeatedly creates a false impression of ongoing development. It guides users to stake and lock tokens, reducing circulating supply and selling pressure.
Stories can be endlessly retold, but a stagnant ecosystem won't materialize out of thin air by repeatedly painting rosy pictures.
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and extremely risky.Last night it dipped to 83130, and anyone naked shorting could see it at a glance.
Yesterday at 20:40 I said don't chase at 84400, that's someone else's cost; buy 1/3 on the pullback at 83600-83900, buy another 1/3 at 83000-83200, stop loss at 82300.
As a result, it probed down to 83130 on the 4h chart that night. Those chasing highs are at a floating loss, waiting for both pullback levels to fill, stop loss untouched. Now at 84073, floating profit.
Three changes:
① The fee rate turned from -0.0013% to positive +0.0020%/8h, shorts no longer pay.
② Open interest is 95,238 contracts, down 12.7% from 9/22. Price is sideways, leverage is retreating, it can't fall or fly.
③ Funds shifted from ETH back to BTC: BTC buy ratio 1.08 (yesterday 0.91), ETH dropped to 0.93 (yesterday 1.54).
What to do:
· For those with 2/3 position: hold, move stop loss from 82300 up to 83300.
· For those empty-handed: 84073 is at the upper edge, don't chase. Place orders at 83600-83900 to wait for pullback, or follow if 4h closes above 84200, stop loss at 83500.
· Don't touch ETH: buy orders are retreating and long-short ratio is 2.72, easy to be shaken out.
4h lows are rising: 83130 → 83585 → 83587. Building a bottom, not a downtrend continuation.
If wrong, no change: daily close below 82300.Just saw Crypto Mom post her resignation letter herself, with only "T minus 7" written beside it: Hester Peirce said she will leave the SEC on October 2 and then go teach at Regent Law School. She has been pushing for crypto asset classification, mining and staking guidelines these past few years, and during the Trump administration, she also managed the newly established crypto working group. After she leaves, the commission will only have Atkins and Uyeda left, barely meeting the quorum. On the same day, the SEC also released that crypto FAQ—she's not gone yet, but the rule machine is still running.$SEI current price 0.07475, 24h +20.20%, trading volume 22.0M USDT, MA5=0.07354 above MA20=0.068356, MACD histogram +0.0005607 maintaining bullish momentum, but RSI=82.7 has entered the overbought zone, Bollinger upper band 0.075743 right overhead, funding rate +0.0100% is the highest among the three candidate coins, fear and greed index 71 leaning towards greed.
Horizontal strength comparison: $ARKM up 31.52% but trading volume only 13.3M, amplitude 35%, volatility too high and capital volume relatively thin; $JTO up 17.11%, RSI 74.8, structure healthy but trading volume 7.8M, liquidity weakest. $SEI leads the three with the thickest capital support at 22.0M trading volume, MACD bullish histogram sustained, moving averages in a complete bullish alignment, making it the "most solid volume-price coordination" in this sector this round. If the pullback does not break MA5, the trend continuation probability is high.
Operationally, do not chase highs, wait to buy near the MA5 pullback. $SNDK SK Hynix sells moat — HBM holds over half the market share, others can't catch up, but the premium has already been fully priced in, which is why it only rose 28% this year.
$MU wrong sell-off — across the board, PE in single digits, waiting for a financial report to verify.
SanDisk sells imagination — long-term contracts + HBF, the story is the most attractive, but the pullback is also the harshest.
The big picture in eight characters: there's a top above, and a bottom below.
The top is the 10-year US Treasury at 5.16%, the bottom is AI shortage lasting until 2027. $SKHYNIX $BTC
Interest rate hikes landing, bill blocked, two negative factors smashed then hit new highs. This is not the bull market returning, but a recovery after all the negatives have been exhausted—above is the US Treasury yield pressure, below is the ETF support, so it's an upward oscillation, not a one-sided crazy bull run.
BTC outlook: The new high of 87,300 has passed, the trend above 82,000 remains unchanged, pullbacks are opportunities.
$ETH patience needed: Rising slowly, but no supply to dump in exchanges. The longer it consolidates, the stronger the rise.
ZEC watch your speed: It doesn't look at macro, but at Grayscale flows. Small positions move in and out quickly, don't talk about faith.The huge BTC options expiry is over.
Now the interesting part begins.
BTC options OI is still around 507K BTC, while the put/call ratio sits near 0.61.
Implied volatility is only ~36.
A massive block of positioning just disappeared.
Now watch what replaces it.
Fresh positioning can tell us more than yesterday’s expiry.Pepe dropped 13% as the meme rally unwinds.
Not because of Pepe. Because of risk-off.
Memecoins are the fastest gauge of risk appetite in the entire market.
When they fall first and hardest,
that's not noise. That's the leading indicator. 🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H
BTC anchors structure. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta participation.
Price + volume + OI remain the key confirmation layer.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC confirm → 🚀 Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC diverge → ⚠️ Narrow Strength
BTC sets direction. Participation reveals conviction. 🔥The US spot $BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 6 consecutive trading days, totaling over $2.8 billion. However, the latest daily inflow dropped to about $191 million, significantly cooling down compared to nearly $1 billion in a single day previously. Bitcoin has also pulled back from above $87,000, and the market has now re-entered a phase where "funds are still present, but buying at highs is approached with caution."At present, this return is about $3,000 less than holding $ONDO, but the two projects are different. We must observe and understand the staking separately. $PONS is just a launchpad, implementing a distribution and burn mechanism. More importantly, it relies on $HOOD to open up space. And hood is the most critical target because it controls the traffic distribution gateway and holds users' trust. It was originally a traditional brokerage. It's like you were going to buy from them anyway, but now they have some new products. So your risk level just changed from medium to high, that's all.
Anyone who has worked in a factory knows that the important thing is not just making the product, but who you sell it to. Sales have always earned the highest commissions. A good salesperson can keep an entire company alive, at least maintaining its operation. The reason why top salespeople hold such a high status is because of this.
So ondo is actually the one making the product, continuously building this underlying infrastructure. Whether it's obtaining licenses, 1:1 established government bonds, or some assets being tokenized on-chain. The business side can be said to be good, but in terms of income, it definitely doesn't match hood. If you, like me, are optimistic about this round of crypto, then we should hold these underlying assets like crcl and ondo, which are actually the path to mining gold. No matter who ultimately wins, they will get a share, but definitely not the largest.
Those who eat the most are often those who control traffic allocation, capital distribution, and profit restructuring.While price charts get all the attention,
Bitcoin Core just hit a multi-year high in dev activity.
135 contributors.
285,000+ lines of code changed in 2025 alone.
Version 32.0 is already in release-candidate testing.
Nobody trades on this. Everyone should watch it. TRUMP token dropped 3.15% in 11 hours after a $1.97M token unlock hit the market. That's a small unlock by crypto standards — and it still moved the price. Imagine what a $50M or $200M unlock does to a thinner-liquidity token. $BTC Bullish scenario: Interest rate expectations no longer worsen + continuous net inflows into ETFs → BTC holds above 85,000, breaks through 87,300 → ETH catches up to 2,830–3,000 → capital sinks into privacy sector, ZEC surges again with the November NU7 upgrade. This is the complete rotation chain; do not mix up the order.
Bearish scenario: Oil prices rise again, US Treasury yields continue to climb, Fed turns hawkish → BTC falls below 82,000, loses and regains the 50-week moving average → ETH crashes first to 2,620 → ZEC, being the most leveraged, undergoes a direct halving-style liquidation (over 3 billion in open interest waiting there). When all three run together at this point, don’t expect any to hold.
So the current strategy is simple: watch the 82,000 mark. Above it, all three can be played; below it, liquidate all positions. Position sizing by risk: BTC heaviest, $ETH next, ZEC lightest. Negotiations are underway, oil prices are uncertain, BTC don't rush ahead
It is reported that the US and Iran are testing a "step-by-step" approach: first reopening the Strait of Hormuz for navigation, then gradually easing the port blockade. Once the news broke, crude oil bulls retreated, with Brent and WTI plunging more than 2% intraday. But this is just speculative trading, not a finalized agreement. The Houthi forces attacked Saudi Aramco facilities again, reminding the market that the geopolitical powder keg is not extinguished. Diplomatic warmth and military sparks coexist, and oil prices are very likely to continue wide-range tug-of-war.
For BTC, if oil prices truly fall back, it means easing inflation expectations, narrowing the Fed's hawkish space, and removing one of the two mountains of US Treasury yields and oil prices. There is reason for risk appetite to recover, but don't mistake "possible" for "certain." Negotiations are unsigned, attacks have not stopped, and Iran's attitude is variable; oil prices can rebound at any time.
From the market perspective, BTC fluctuates around 85,000, with dense resistance at 87,000–88,000, and short-term support at 84,000; conditions for a one-sided breakout are insufficient. Strategically, do not bet on negotiation outcomes; wait for a ceasefire or substantial progress in navigation reopening, and for oil prices to establish a trend before acting. For now, watch more and act less. Can a deal be made? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#霍尔木兹重开现转机，油价风险溢价会降吗？ #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 🔥 IS NEAR MAKING A COMEBACK? THIS RISE IS NOT JUST FROM FOMO! If you only look at the chart, many would think: 👉 “NEAR pumped, probably about to dump!” But if you look deeper into the ecosystem, the story is more noteworthy. 📈 NEAR is currently around $4.5, after a strong surge in September. Price data shows NEAR had sessions with over 20% gains, and on 9/24 it continued to rise nearly 5.9%. What’s behind this? 🚀 1. NEAR Intents are becoming the focal point NEAR is no longer just mentioned as a Layer-1. The focus today $BTC macro is the top, policy is the bottom, and the middle is priced based on capital flow.
If Bitcoin doesn't break the position, Ethereum won't chase highs, and ZEC won't get overheated.
82,000 is Bitcoin's lifeline, 2,650 is $ETH's bottom line, ZEC has no bottom line, only Grayscale's inflow and your stop loss.
Interest rate hike landing without a drop but a rise — this is the strongest signal.ENA surged 19% today, currently priced at 0.268, with 24h trading volume at 193 million USD — it's the clearest capital inflow in today's market.
There are two catalysts to check: first, news about protocol expansion (reported by CMC yesterday), and second, the token unlock approaching on October 5, mentioned by CryptoTicker and Coinpedia this week. The market is rushing to "pump before the unlock."
The K-line is the key: ENA hovered between 0.20–0.23 for two weeks, then just after midnight today, a +9% 4H bullish candle broke through 0.24 directly. The next 4H candle doubled volume pushing to 0.252, then no pullback, now around 0.27. Breakout + volume increase + no retracement — this combo doesn’t look like a fake breakout.
Honestly: pumping before unlock is a double-edged sword. If after unlock it holds 0.25 with volume intact, that’s a real breakout; if it gaps up on unlock day then falls back into the range, today was just a rush to sell early.
Sharing capital flow logic, not investment advice. Do you think 0.25 will hold on unlock day, or will it fall back into the range? $ENAThe China-US summit has short-term positive significance for the Bitcoin bull market, but its essence is a pulse-like boost rather than a structural driver.
Before and after the summit, Bitcoin rose about 2% to 2.3%, once reaching $82,000. Polymarket traders once priced a 92% probability for a "China-US tariff agreement by the end of the year," and the optimistic sentiment directly transmitted to the crypto market. But when the market realized that tariffs were not substantially eased and there was no breakthrough in AI export controls, sentiment quickly cooled.
BIT Research's analysis is incisive: Bitcoin has not been priced as a "structural safe-haven asset" in the short term, performing more like a high-beta version of Nasdaq. When Trump announced a 100% tariff on China, Bitcoin plunged over 7% within hours, dropping from above $120,000 to about $111,000.
The real fuel for the bull market does not lie in the diplomatic posture itself, but in whether the summit can bring substantial tariff reductions and liquidity easing. In the short term, sentiment matters; in the long term, liquidity matters—this is the pricing logic of Bitcoin.$HYPE A large amount of HYPE is being transferred from wallets to exchanges, coupled with the upcoming large-scale unlock. Can retail investors withstand this double pressure? A CFO who helped with the IPO but has made little contribution in the two full years since going public, continuously cashing out and exiting since the listing. You could say he was purely drawing a salary without real work. His departure actually caused a 5% drop? This isn’t an opportunity to reverse course and pick someone up, so what is it? $CRCL Monthly open pivot approaching.
6/7 times, $BTC has seen a pump around the monthly open, usually because PA was bearish heading into it.
So if we dump into October, I’d expect a push higher afterwards. If we pump into it instead, I’d be far more cautious.Bitcoin moved to $84K as oil slid on fresh reports of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Read that again: an oil-market headline just moved BTC more than any crypto-specific news today. The line between geopolitics and crypto price action keeps getting thinner. The huge BTC options expiry is over.
Now the interesting part begins.
BTC options OI is still around 507K BTC, while the put/call ratio sits near 0.61.
Implied volatility is only ~36.
A massive block of positioning just disappeared.
Now watch what replaces it.
Fresh positioning can tell us more than yesterday’s expiry.$ZEC is carrying a lot more risk than its chart suggests.
Open interest is now around $3.0B.
On Sep. 15 it was ~$1.98B.
That’s roughly 52% more open positions in just 10 days.
Price is still holding near the highs, while funding remains positive.
ZEC isn’t just moving.
A huge derivatives market is forming around it.$LINK just moved through a ~$1.73 daily range.
Low: $12.46.
High: $14.19.
That’s almost 14% in one day.
Now add ~25% growth in open interest.
More positions are entering while the daily range is already huge.
The interesting question isn’t just where LINK goes.
It’s how much leverage can survive this volatility.$LINK is up 11.2% in 24H.
But the price isn’t the most interesting number.
Volume reached ~$1.07B, while open interest jumped ~25%.
Yet funding on OKX is still around 0.01% per 8H.
Price is moving. Leverage is entering.
But traders aren’t paying extreme funding yet.
That’s a setup worth watching.about a third of all bitcoin is held at a loss by people 155+ days in.
sixth time since 2011. the other five were bottoming zones for $BTC.
the actual OGs are up 1000x and don't appear on this chart.$BTC just liquidated a large amount of leverage — open interest (O.I.) on major exchanges dropped by $1.72B, while the price only fell 2.3%.
This is healthy. It means the system is clearing out weak hands and over-leveraged positions without a major crash.
Less leverage = lower risk of liquidation cascades. If $BTC can hold these levels, we are ready for the next leg up. This is how a bull market breathes.
Watch for OI to slowly rebound. That’s when the next expansion will begin. Patience pays off. Fixing the Vulnerability or a Stealthy Maneuver? An In-Depth Analysis of the Economic Account Behind the Core Public Chain Hard Fork
⚠️This article is only a review of on-chain events and does not constitute any investment advice
On 8.31, a reward contract vulnerability erupted, allowing a few validator nodes to exploit the contract flaw and excessively mint a large amount of CORE tokens. Subsequently, Core DAO urgently initiated a hard fork.
Many debate: Was this upgrade simply a straightforward fix of the code vulnerability, or was it a stealthy maneuver to quietly reshape token supply and shift costs under the guise of a hard fork? The answer lies within this economic account.
1. The First Account: What Supply Rules Did the Hard Fork Actually Change?
The CORE whitepaper sets a total supply cap of 2.1 billion tokens, mirroring Bitcoin’s narrative of 21 million, publicly promoting a fixed total supply with no over-issuance.
However, the reward contract had a vulnerability that allowed validator nodes to bypass the original release rules and mint tokens out of thin air.
✅ What the Hard Fork Achieved
1. Plugged the vulnerability: Fixed the reward distribution code so that the same loophole cannot be exploited for unlimited minting in the future, fundamentally preventing similar over-issuance events from recurring.
2. On-chain destruction of some excess tokens, reducing part of the newly circulating supply.
❌ What the Hard Fork Did Not Do, and the Core of the Controversy
It did not roll back historical transactions. The ghost tokens already minted and transferred into validator wallets will not be forcibly reclaimed.
This is the key economic trade-off:
If rolled back, these tokens would be erased, but at the cost of breaking the blockchain’s fundamental trust in "transaction immutability";
If only forward fixes are applied, the immutability narrative is preserved, but the cost of selling off excess tokens is borne collectively by all holders in the secondary market.
The market’s suspicion of a "stealthy maneuver" stems from this: the vulnerability is a code issue, but the ultimate economic loss is not solely borne by the malicious nodes but shared by all token holders.
2. The Second Account: Long-Term Impact on Token Release Curve
CORE’s token release cycle spans 81 years, with annual rewards decaying at a fixed rate. This long-term inflation model is one of its core narratives.
The vulnerability incident directly disrupted the originally designed release schedule:
- Original plan: Tokens released slowly at a fixed pace, with controlled supply increments, allowing the market to anticipate selling pressure in advance.
- After the vulnerability: A batch of low-cost tokens entered the market prematurely, disrupting the release rhythm. Even though the total supply cap remains 2.1 billion, the broken supply rhythm causes more direct harm to the token price than breaching the total cap.
Many misunderstand: as long as the total supply is fixed, everything is fine.
The economic reality in crypto is: price depends not on the distant total supply cap but on current and near-future circulating supply and selling pressure rhythm.
Even if the 2.1 billion cap is never breached, a large amount of low-cost tokens can be sold anytime in the short term, causing selling pressure during every rally in a bull market.
3. The Third Account: Hidden Economic Costs Behind Power
This economic account is often overlooked by retail investors—the long-term potential cost of concentrated governance power.
CORE’s Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus: BTC hash power defends the underlying ledger, while 21 validator nodes control reward distribution, protocol upgrades, and hard fork decisions.
1. BTC hash power only defends against external 51% attacks and cannot supervise upper-layer contract vulnerabilities or constrain validator nodes from profiting via rule loopholes. Hash power is marketing endorsement, not responsible for internal economic security.
2. The hard fork plan is dominated by the validator node circle. Ordinary holders have no veto power and must passively accept the economic consequences of decisions.
This creates a huge risk: if contract bugs appear again in the future, all economic costs will still be borne by retail holders in the secondary market.
Code vulnerabilities can be fixed, but the structural economic risk from a small circle controlling rule changes cannot be eliminated by a single hard fork.
4. Core Controversy: Fixing the Vulnerability or a Stealthy Maneuver?
Objective conclusion: It did fix the vulnerability but also accepted and retained the economic legacy issues caused by the vulnerability.
✅ Not purely a stealthy maneuver:
The hard fork did block the channel for unlimited future minting and destroyed some excess tokens, preventing infinite loops of the vulnerability and supply from spiraling out of control. Without the upgrade, the vulnerability would have been continuously exploited, creating more tokens and worsening the situation.
⚠️ But compromises exist, which are the root of market doubts:
The project prioritized protecting the narrative of "ledger immutability" over the short-term interests of secondary market holders.
Choosing not to roll back is equivalent to legitimizing the excess tokens, effectively shifting the economic loss caused by the vulnerability from the project/malicious nodes to all token holders.
This is the root of the debate:
From the code perspective, it is a vulnerability fix;
From the token economics perspective, it is a trade-off where retail holders bear the long-term cost of selling pressure.
5. Summary
To understand the economic account of Core’s hard fork, distinguish two things: total supply cap and circulating release rhythm.
The 2.1 billion ceiling was not broken, but short-term circulating supply increased and the selling pressure structure was permanently altered.
The hard fork plugged the hole for future over-issuance but cannot erase the ghost tokens already in circulation.
Technically, it is a vulnerability fix; economically, it is a cost transfer.
Code can be patched, but the low-cost tokens already in the market and the centralized governance structure are long-term fundamental burdens.
💬 Interactive question: In your view, when a public chain encounters a contract vulnerability, should priority be given to protecting ledger immutability or protecting ordinary holders’ assets?
#CryptoResearch #CORE #HardFork #TokenEconomics #BTCFiXiaoshan, don't let this operation affect your mood next time. Maybe you didn't do well enough this time, and you feel frustrated, painful, self-blaming, and annoyed—these emotions are very normal. But at this moment, you must not let these emotions dominate your brain, because they will affect your judgment next time. When you encounter the exact same situation, you might hesitate inside, or you might rush to act to try to fix the situation. The correct approach is to think about why you didn't do well this time and improve next time. When you do well this time, you will be excited and more confident. Your subjectivity will be stronger when facing things, and you will be more certain about what you think is right. This is typical blind confidence, which only gets extinguished when you encounter failure, but by then your funds have already suffered a significant drawdown. So separate the emotions after each operation; when the next operation starts, your mood should be calm.Today's Crypto Market (September 26, 2026)
Not a continued bull market, but a "high-level oscillation and position washing"
However, there are several hidden signals in the public data today that are more important than the price:
The real reason ETH can't rise: A giant whale/related addresses have collectively received about 167,800 ETH (~$400 million), and about 70,000 ETH have been transferred to exchanges in the past 48 hours. Not an immediate dump, but the "exchange balance expectation" has increased, so buying pressure needs to absorb it.
Retail hasn't returned, whales are accumulating: ADA and some major altcoins show a structure of "retail waiting on the sidelines + large wallets increasing positions," XRP/SOL-type ETF products have continuous small inflows, but not enough to support a full altcoin season.
Macro has sealed the ceiling: High US Treasury yields, a relatively strong dollar, and a hawkish Fed mean BTC, as a non-yield asset, "has sentiment but no liquidity," so despite a fear and greed index of 71, it can't rise.
After options/quarterly settlement: Large September options have settled, and the market now lacks "new catalysts," making it prone to sideways consolidation between 83,000–85,000 with position washing.
Regulatory hidden risks: The US CLARITY Act is basically dead for this year; SEC/CFTC are shifting to administrative rules; rumors persist about investigations into crypto treasury-type stocks/tokens linked to internal trading. Monthly open pivot approaching.
6/7 times, $BTC has seen a pump around the monthly open, usually because PA was bearish heading into it.
So if we dump into October, I’d expect a push higher afterwards. If we pump into it instead, I’d be far more cautious.