Orbit Post Sitemap
Has the bull market arrived? What is a bull market? It's not just a few days of rising prices that make a bull market. The underlying logic of a bull market is loose liquidity, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a continuous inflow of funds. So what about now? The CPI has just been released, core inflation exceeded expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September is 90%, U.S. Treasury yields are approaching 5%, and oil prices are above $100. This is a tightening environment, not a liquidity easing one.
What is this recent rise? It's an oversold rebound + bad news fully priced in + short squeeze. ETH fell from over 1000 to below 2000, dropping for more than a year, so there was a need for recovery. After the CPI data came out, the market realized there was no worse news, shorts covered their positions en masse, and prices were pushed up. This is completely different from the 2024 bull market where institutions continuously entered and ETFs had daily net inflows.
Look at ETF funds and you'll understand: BTC had net outflows for four consecutive days, indicating institutions are reducing positions during the rebound, not adding to them. Although ETH saw some inflows, it was more portfolio adjustment rather than outright bullishness.
Of course, there's no need to be too pessimistic. The crypto market tends to react in advance; by the time rate cuts actually happen, the market may have already moved halfway. At this point, the probability of being in a bottoming area is increasing, but bottoming doesn't mean an immediate rise; the consolidation could last a long time.
My judgment: It's too early to say the bull market has arrived now. Saying the bear market continues is too pessimistic. A more accurate statement is that the market is bottoming and waiting for a clear signal—that is, when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates and start cutting them. $FLOCK fees turned negative, shorts are now the fuel📉 My account has been cut in half five times. Four times, I managed to recover. Now I'm reviewing the fifth recovery. Yesterday ended with roughly 700U in profit, bringing the account to around 2,900U. $BTC $ZEC $SNDK But the numbers don't tell the whole story. At one point yesterday, the account had climbed from around 2,300U to nearly 4,700U — basically a temporary doubling. And then came the familiar mistake: I didn't take enough profit when the market gave me the opportunity. During the shaYesterday (Friday), September 11,
$BTC spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $13,289,300.
This marks the fourth consecutive trading day of net outflows.
Overall, funds are flowing out, but there is some divergence in operations among institutions:
Morgan Stanley's ETFs recorded a net inflow yesterday,
with a purchase amount of $3,760,800 (not large).
Market giant BlackRock's IBIT saw the largest outflow yesterday,
with a single-day net outflow of $19,233,300 (also not high).
From a trading perspective, analyzing the fund battles,
these days' ETF flows reveal several signals:
1) Institutional funds are not fully retreating;
traditional big banks like Morgan Stanley are still buying small amounts on dips.
2) There is strong cautious sentiment;
before the Federal Reserve decision on September 17,
BlackRock's IBIT, considered a market "ballast," experienced significant outflows,
indicating some large funds are reducing risk exposure and staying cautious, essentially just waiting and watching.
3) The scale is not large;
a few days of outflows,
compared to the $3.5 billion net inflow in August, is nothing.
The current cumulative outflow over several days is only $450 million,
which is a very small proportion of the nearly $100 billion ETF asset pool, a normal fluctuation.
Today is Saturday again; we will wait until Monday to see the fund flows of some U.S. institutions,
combined with the Fed's rate hike expectations on September 17,
which will roughly indicate institutions' confidence or fear index toward the crypto market. Tom Lee said the four-year cycle will bottom out next month. The question that should be asked is not whether this is right or wrong, but who needs it to be true.
Leverage excess was cleared last October; this judgment itself has traceable evidence, but equating it directly with the cycle bottom misses a step. Price bottoms rely on sellers being exhausted, not automatically occurring just because leverage is cleared. A more likely explanation is that he took the clearing as a time anchor rather than a price anchor.
So the confidence in a bullish outlook for the next twelve months actually depends on whether demand can pick up, not that the supply side is already clean.
Focus on one thing: whether spot trading volume in the next two months expands in sync with price recovery. If prices rise but volume does not follow, this bottom judgment needs to be recalculated.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ #Robinhood加密交易量8月环比增61% $ZEC $BTC ETF data flips quickly. A week ago, there was a net inflow of 1.01 billion, but in just three days this week, 450 million ran out, with a single-day outflow of 283 million. BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale are all withdrawing.
Why the rush? Because the FOMC meeting is imminent. The September 16 interest rate meeting is like a sword hanging overhead; institutions simply dare not take heavy positions betting on direction at this critical moment. Plus, on September 25, $14.39 billion worth of BTC quarterly options expire simultaneously, forcing both bulls and bears to close positions early to hedge, putting maximum pressure on liquidity.
Looking at coin performance, Bitcoin is grinding around 78,000, while Ethereum is weaker, down nearly 1%. ETH$ETH has never fixed its problem of falling faster than it rises; when liquidity tightens, it drops faster than anyone else. With major coins in this state, altcoins have no soil for independent rallies.
As I said before, don’t try to guess the bottom when rate hike expectations are at their peak. Now with ETF funds withdrawing, options settlement approaching, and no macro clarity yet, without sustained buying support, any rebound is an opportunity to exit, not to chase.
The stance is clear: continue to expect weak oscillation. Hold spot positions firmly, control short-term trades, wait for the FOMC to clarify its stance, wait for quarterly options settlement to complete, and for the market to fully digest this wave of risk-off sentiment before looking for entry opportunities. #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 @OKX星球 Tom Lee said the bottom will be reached next month, but this statement needs to be analyzed carefully.
Tom Lee is very bullish for the next 12 months.
He also said the four-year cycle will bottom out next month.
His original words were:
The excess leverage was cleared out last October.
The premise of this statement is:
Clearing out means those who borrowed money to buy coins have all sold off.
The remaining positions are not supported by borrowed money.
In plain language:
If the price falls further, fewer people are forced to sell.
If no one is forced to sell, the downward pressure decreases.
But the cycle bottom is a guess, not a calculation.
He provides a direction, not a date.
If the bottom is not reached next month, this explanation is still not wrong.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $BTC $ETH | Staking Is Becoming Crypto’s Benchmark Yield ETH staking is slowly becoming the on-chain equivalent of a benchmark yield. Current staking yield is around 2.75% annually, and the interesting part is where that yield comes from: Ethereum network validation itself, not central-bank rates. If this continues, future DeFi and on-chain investment products could increasingly be judged against ETH staking: if the extra return isn’t worth the extra risk, why take the risk? That’s a pretty importanBack when BTC dropped to $60,000 and ETH to $1,800, the whole market was waiting for a harsher scenario: BTC at $30,000–40,000, ETH at $800–1,000, hoping for another big crash before getting on board.
So what happened after all that waiting?
BTC is now back near $80,000, and ETH has climbed back to $2,500.
Do those KOLs who were bearish on BTC at $60,000 and ETH at $1,800 still remember what they said?
I've always thought that anyone can be bearish—when prices fall, they call it a bear market; when prices rise, they find a new explanation.
The real challenge is when everyone thinks prices will keep falling—do you dare to act according to your own judgment?
At the time, I believed the $60,000 level could be an important bottom for this cycle. Looking back now, at least the market gave me one chance to verify that.
Of course, no one can confidently say whether $60,000 is the ultimate historical bottom.
But one thing I'm increasingly sure of:
The market never waits for you to fully understand before it rises.
If you keep waiting for $30,000, you might end up waiting for $80,000 instead.
So don’t just talk bearish.
Time is the harshest verifier. $ETH $BTC Zoom out on $BTC daily and the picture gets less friendly. That vertical run in late August from 62K to 82K happened in about five days. Nothing built underneath it.
Since then, three weeks of lower highs and no real progress. Price is now under the 10 and 20 day MAs, and the 21 EMA at 76.9K is the last thing holding it up.
Fast moves usually get retraced fast. Lose 76.8K on a daily close and I think this fills back toward 70K.
Am I being too bearish here?
#BTCSpotETF450MOutflow Wall Street is quietly leaning towards Ethereum native assets rather than Bitcoin native assets 👀
BlackRock's staked Ethereum native fund has just seen inflows for 20 consecutive days. In the same week, Bitcoin native ETFs saw $449 million outflows in 3 days, while Ethereum native assets outperformed Bitcoin native assets by 39% vs. 25% over 30 days.
Is this a real rotation of funds, or are clients simply chasing staking yields? $ETH Next week the Federal Reserve will drop the hammer, should you hold or reduce BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE
#After the release of PPI and CPI, multiple institutions have raised their expectations for a September rate hike
The sideways movement for two days is not due to lack of direction, but because everyone is waiting for that hammer next week — the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Decide now whether to hold or reduce your coins.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has surged to about 89%, doubling from a month ago, and Goldman Sachs has also changed its stance. Before the boot drops, funds dare not move much. $BTC is stuck between 77,000 and 78,000, $ETH holds above 2,500, SOL clings to 100, DOGE lies at 0.084, all holding their breath.
The four coins have different battle postures: BTC is the ballast stone; if 77,000 doesn't break, hold it; if it really breaks, then reduce; ETH has ETF funds continuously flowing in supporting it, the strongest this round, a pullback to 2,500-2,530 that doesn't break is actually stable; SOL and DOGE are high-beta and sentiment-driven coins, if the rate hike turns hawkish, they will be hit the fastest. Those with heavy positions should reduce one level during the sideways movement, don't wait until the boot drops to run.
If the upcoming meeting is dovish and BTC breaks above 78,000 with volume, the elastic coins SOL and DOGE will rebound fastest and can keep a base position to ride the rebound; if hawkish and BTC breaks below 77,000, the elastic coins will be the first to reduce. Don't bet on the meeting outcome, prepare for both scenarios.Take a look, has the God of Wealth arrived!
Brothers! On the gainers list today, $BEAT surged 20% in one day. Isn't this a chance to get free money?
For newbies who haven't played before, they see it and think, damn, it’s bottomed out, definitely time to buy the dip and go long. But will we get scammed? No! Only the shorts get trapped!
Look at the current market data. BEAT has crashed from its all-time high of $11.57 in June down to around $0.08 now, a drop of over 99%. This is a bottomless pit. There are 490,000 sell orders stacked at 0.0888 and another 540,000 at 0.0887. The selling pressure is like a mountain; the buying side can’t push through. The long-short ratio is 49% to 51%. Retail investors are still rushing in, but smart money has already started positioning shorts.
Now look at the fundamentals. On August 1st, 21.25 million tokens were unlocked, worth $67.78 million, accounting for 6.87% of the circulating supply. The project only buys back and burns 800,000 tokens weekly, which is more than 26 times less than the unlocked amount, so it can’t absorb the supply. This rally is entirely driven by leveraged funds pushing hard. The funding rate is still positive, so those chasing longs are still paying fees to hold their positions, but once this structure reverses, the stampede will be brutal.
My average short entry price for BEAT is 0.0931, current price is 0.0884, already up 15.14%. This kind of speculative coin can only be shorted at high levels; when it rises, it’s just giving money to the shorts. Brothers, follow along!
$ETH
$BTC
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 The BRICS countries' joint statement, after reading it, I only remember four words: maximum restraint.
No party was named, no timetable was given, and no mention of who will supervise. Compared to similar past statements, the wording is almost reusable.
The Middle East situation is tense as it is. What the statement can do is just repeat the word "call" again.
I tend to believe that such statements have almost zero impact on the market, unless there are actual mediation actions or changes in energy supply afterward.
Waiting for a signal: who will sit down to talk first, not who issued another statement. #SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OracleAICloudUp121% The Federal Reserve's rate hike is almost a foregone conclusion, yet U.S. stocks suddenly rallied collectively.
Many people are confused by this market move.
After the CPI release, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike next week clearly intensified.
According to traditional logic:
Rate hikes = negative for stocks.
But on Friday, the market moved in the opposite direction.
The S&P 500 rose nearly 1%.
The Dow Jones was up close to 1%.
The Nasdaq also gained about 0.9%.
Why?
Because the market is never just trading on "whether to hike rates or not."
What truly affects risk assets is how high future interest rates will be and how long they will last.
Once the 25 basis points are gradually priced in by the market, the biggest variable temporarily settles.
Capital naturally starts to flow back in.
But don’t mistake a one-day rebound for a trend reversal.
The two truly dangerous numbers are becoming increasingly glaring:
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 5%.
Brent crude oil has risen above $104.
One represents financing costs.
The other represents inflationary pressure.
If oil prices keep pushing higher, inflation will be hard to cool down completely.
If inflation doesn’t come down, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to quickly pivot to easing.
This is the real headache for the market:
It’s not that a 25 basis point hike is so scary, but that high interest rates may persist longer than the market expects.
If the market continues to raise rate hike expectations, U.S. stock valuations, corporate earnings, and global liquidity will all come under pressure.
The same applies to BTC, ETH.
Going forward, don’t just focus on the FOMC meeting day.
What really matters is:
Whether the 10-year Treasury yield can break through 5%.
Whether oil prices can continue to surge.
Whether the market will keep betting on prolonged high interest rates.
So, I prefer to see this U.S. stock rally as an emotional repair.
The real drama hasn’t started yet.
If any one of the three lines—interest rates, oil prices, liquidity—gets out of control, risk assets could come under pressure again.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC
#美债收益率逼近5%，回购难缓长期压力 $ETH
Actually, I'm not particularly optimistic about Ethereum's short-term valuation, but from where we stand now, I'm not in a hurry to short it either.
The reason is simple: ETH still acts as an "economic hub" in the entire crypto market. Stablecoins, DeFi, L2 solutions, and numerous on-chain applications all revolve around the Ethereum ecosystem, so it always holds some valuation potential. As long as capital and narratives return to the chain, ETH could experience price movements beyond fundamental expectations.
However, if we look purely at supply and demand and actual usage, I remain cautious.
ETH has evolved from a simple "inflationary asset" into a dynamic asset influenced by both issuance and burning. EIP-1559 directly burns the base fees, while PoS continuously generates validator rewards. Only when on-chain demand is strong enough and the burn volume consistently exceeds new issuance will ETH experience more pronounced deflationary pressure.
What truly deserves attention now is not whether "ETH is being burned," but whether real on-chain demand can sustain pushing the burn volume higher. Recent data also shows that ETH's burn mechanism is still operational, but the burn intensity has noticeably weakened compared to more active periods. Therefore, relying solely on the "deflation" narrative makes it difficult to support a long-term sustained price increase. CPI was stronger than expected, and the September rate hike expectation once approached 90%, yet BTC first rose then fell?
Actually, the logic is simple:
🔥 First rise: short covering
After the negative news was released without further exceeding expectations, shorts who had positioned early began to take profits, high-leverage positions were forced to liquidate, causing BTC and ETH to rebound quickly, with ZEC experiencing even greater volatility.
📉 Then fall: rate hike expectations repriced
After the sentiment cooled, the market faced high interest rates and tightening liquidity again, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and risk assets came under pressure once more.
So this move is not "bad news turning good," but rather:
First trading the realization of bad news, then trading the pressure of rate hikes.
Next, the focus is on the Federal Reserve's September meeting and the post-meeting statements regarding the future interest rate path.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC#OracleAdobeToday AI demand is no longer the question. The bill is 👀
Oracle has a massive $638B backlog, but investors want to see how quickly it becomes revenue and whether that cash can outrun AI capex. Adobe faces a similar test with Firefly and GenStudio: can AI lift revenue without eating margins?
What caught my attention is the shift.
From Oracle's cloud to Adobe's software and Apple's AI hardware, the race is moving from building AI to proving it actually pays.
#SeptHikeOddsHit90% Why Has WLD's AI Narrative Failed? Three Reasons for Its $0.40 Stagnation
While Anthropic races toward its IPO and OpenAI continues to dominate headlines, as of September 12, WLD still hovers around $0.40, with a market cap of approximately $153 million. This project, labeled as an "OpenAI concept coin," is being voted on by the market with its feet.
First, supply pressure has not been cleared. WLD has a total supply of 10 billion tokens, with about 3.6 billion in circulation and over 6.4 billion still locked. Although the unlocking rate was reduced by 43% in July to 2.9 million tokens per day, this only extends the unlocking period rather than reducing the total amount. At the current price, there is still roughly $1.1 million worth of new supply daily. Buyers must absorb this selling pressure during rebounds, making it naturally difficult for the price to break through.
Second, sentiment data reveals the true attitude. The WLD fear and greed index has long remained in the fear zone and has never effectively reached greed. After Arthur Hayes's Maelstrom announced holding WLD in June, it liquidated within 24 hours, and the price dropped 20% that day—showing that even publicly supportive opinion leaders are voting against it with their actions.
Third, the narrative and price have diverged. The World project has made progress: it completed a $52.5 million funding round in July, introduced a fee mechanism with World ID 4.0, and is advancing partnerships with Zoom and Okta. However, capital flows toward AI assets with direct revenue support. WLD's connection to OpenAI remains only at the founder identity level, with no substantial binding in its business model.#PPI. After the CPI release, multiple institutions raised their expectations for September rate hikes. Recently, the market has seen a particularly unusual scene: the U.S. CPI data was just released, and although it was in line with expectations, the probability of a Fed rate hike surged to 90%. However, instead of rising, US stocks and gold fell instead, while cryptocurrencies bucked the trend and surged. Many people don't understand—aren't rate hikes considered negative? Why did traditional assets fall while cryptocurrencies rise? Actually, the key issue here isn't the CPI itself, but the yen. U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent has recently been watching the yen closely, even openly declaring, "Who dares to short the yen?" clearly intending to intervene forcefully. Why does the U.S. care so much about the yen? Because Japan is one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries, if the yen keeps depreciating, Japan will have to sell U.S. Treasuries to buy dollars to save the yen, causing the U.S. Treasury market to collapse. Becent's push for Japan to raise rates is to stabilize the yen and prevent Japan from selling U.S. Treasuries—in other words, it's a 'safety net' for U.S. Treasuries. So why did crypto rise? Because CPI didn't exceed expectations, inflation fears disappeared, and funds flowed out of safe-haven U.S. Treasuries to buy crypto and other highly elastic assets. Plus, Becent's stabilization of U.S. Treasuries made the market feel there was no big risk, so it became bold and directly pushed crypto up. The current situation is clear: 1. Fed rate hikes are a certainty, but the market has already priced in this expectation. Instead, because inflation hasn't gotten out of control, they're starting to speculate on crypto rebounds. 2. The yen is the real dealCPI core exceeds expectations, raising the probability of a rate hike to 86%. However, the market did not collapse; instead, it showed divergence.
$BTC surged to 79,837 triggering a golden cross, then retreated to 77,438, with the 50-day EMA falling below the 200-day EMA again. ETF net outflows continued for four consecutive days, totaling about 461 million this week, with zero inflows for the entire week. But Morgan Stanley's MSBT increased holdings against the trend, breaking 7,800 coins for the first time. 76,900 is the intraday low; breaking below opens room for further decline; 78,000 is the signal for a counterattack.
$ETH: A giant whale pumped the price, causing a short squeeze, surging from 2,433 to 2,667, nearly 10% increase, driven by the whale, with transactions over one million dollars rising nearly 14%. ETH short liquidations exceeded 300 million USD in 24 hours, marking the largest intraday gain in three weeks. However, the 2,700-2,800 range has a supply barrier of over 10 million ETH, which is a key resistance that must be broken.
$SOL: Consolidating between 100-105, FTX/Alameda-related addresses unlocked and transferred about 20.62 million SOL. 107 is the short-term directional marker; breaking below 94.95 indicates weakness.
BTC ETFs are bleeding out, ETH ETFs are attracting funds, and capital is rotating. ETH's quick rebound does not mean the risk is gone; if BTC cannot hold above 78,000 with volume, the sustainability of altcoins will be discounted.BTC fell from 79,896 to 77,372, while $ZEC continues to fluctuate around 1,152. Although both are market pullbacks, the underlying risks are on completely different levels.
BTC, ETH, and $ZEC are shown together, but the current market presents three entirely independent trends.
$BTC is currently priced at 77,372, retreating after failing to break the 80,000 mark. The market looks weak, but there is capital support around 76,000, with funds ready to buy on the dip. It’s best to wait for support confirmation for BTC; the key is not to blindly predict direction in the middle range around 77,000.
$ETH is currently at 2,533, having surged to 2,667 the previous day and now holding above 2,500. Its volatility is significantly higher than BTC’s. Holding above 2,500 still offers a chance for recovery; if it falls below this level, subsequent volatile drops will be much harsher than BTC’s. When trading ETH, position management standards cannot be directly copied from BTC.
$ZEC is fluctuating near 1,152. Its biggest risk is not just price decline but the extremely rapid pace of market shifts. BTC’s pullback is a tug-of-war defense at the scale of thousands of dollars, whereas a single sharp bearish candle on ZEC can wipe out hours of accumulated rebound gains in a short time. Major coins allow ample time for observation and stop-loss, but these hot-topic privacy coins often don’t give traders a chance to exit calmly.
After CPI and PPI data release, rate hike expectations continue to suppress all risk assets. Current focus: BTC support at 76,000, ETH at 2,500, and $ZEC is for observation only, no participation.
Don’t approach ZEC’s falling knife with the mindset used for trading BTC.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #OKXPlanetTopic is here #PlanetDaily
This multi-coin comparative market observation is straightforward but contains several easily overlooked cognitive biases:
1. BTC’s 76,000 support is not a permanent safety net
The current buying support is only a temporary behavior of existing funds. If macro negative factors re-emerge, the 76,000 support can be broken at any time. Don’t assume funds will definitely step in at this level; support can also be a false stabilization.
2. ETH’s high volatility doesn’t mean holding 2,500 guarantees recovery
Even if 2,500 holds briefly, it could just be weak sideways consolidation. ETH is inherently a high-volatility asset; if BTC breaks down, ETH’s decline will still exceed BTC’s. Don’t treat 2,500 alone as a rebound trigger.
3. ZEC’s current sideways movement doesn’t mean risk is easing
ZEC’s earlier rally was driven by short squeezes and ETF narratives, with an unstable chip structure. Its current fluctuation around 1,152 just means no concentrated selling pressure for now, not that risk is gone. Its characteristic is sudden rapid pullbacks after calm periods. Even if it looks sideways now, risk hasn’t disappeared, just accumulating.
4. Don’t simply categorize “mainstream is safe, thematic coins are untouchable”
BTC and ETH are also risk assets and will suffer significant pullbacks under rate hike expectations, but with better liquidity and milder spikes. Mainstream coins aren’t inherently stable; they just have different volatility rhythms. Position and stop-loss management should not be relaxed.
This multi-asset observation approach can be referenced, but it’s important to distinguish: liquidity differences only affect volatility speed, not the systemic risk of mainstream coins. Macro pressure remains high, and no coin should be taken lightly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC$XRP in 24 hours -1.61% versus BTC -1.52% — difference -0.09 p.p.
With a position of 41% within the daily range, the question is simple: is this real relative strength or is the movement already fading? #ZEC Enters Top Ten, Institutional Funds and Short Squeeze Rally in Sync
The recent strong surge of $ZEC has made many people start paying renewed attention to this privacy asset. On the surface, it looks like a sudden price breakout, but in reality, it is driven simultaneously by ETF funds, fundamental risk repair, short covering, and privacy narrative.
💰 Layer One: Real Buying Pressure from ETFs
After the launch of Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF, fund attention has clearly increased. The managed assets quickly surpassed $500 million, corresponding to holding over 550,000 ZEC. Although some of this involves related-party funds, the incremental liquidity brought by the institutional product itself cannot be ignored.
🛡️ Layer Two: Supply Risk Mitigated
Previously, the market was concerned about inflation loopholes related to the Orchard mechanism. With the Ironwood upgrade implemented, most Orchard balances have been migrated, significantly reducing market worries about uncontrolled supply.
For institutional funds, resolving the asset's security and supply issues first makes it easier to rebuild allocation logic.
🔥 Layer Three: Short Squeeze After Breakout
After ZEC broke through a key price range, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated, forcing some shorts to buy back spot or futures to close positions.
This forms a typical:The recent movement of OKB looks quite interesting. Let's first talk about what can be seen with the naked eye on the market.
A while ago, it dropped to around 108, a rapid plunge that caused many panic sellers to cut losses at the bottom. Then it didn't continue to decline gradually; funds quickly stepped in to pull it back up, stabilizing again in the 113–114 range.
In simple terms:
The downward momentum has temporarily paused, but the bulls haven't yet powered through to break out. Right now, it's a grinding period of tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Breaking down the logic from a trend perspective into two layers:
1. Short-term level
The 108 level below forms a short-term bottom support zone. As long as it doesn't break below this level effectively, this round of decline is temporarily broken. The first resistance above is at 114.2; if it can hold above this with volume, there is a chance to test the previous high near 118. Conversely, if it fails to break through 114.2 for a long time, prolonged consolidation could easily lead to a second retest of 113 or even lower. Currently, trading volume is not explosive, so a strong one-sided rally is unlikely in the short term.
2. Mid-term level
The 30-day increase is close to 13%, and the 90-day increase exceeds 54%, so the mid-term major trend remains upward. This round of decline looks more like a deep shakeout during an uptrend rather than a trend reversal. The main force uses the decline to wash out retail holders who can't hold on, then re-acquire low-priced chips.
But the key point is: completing the shakeout does not mean an immediate rally; consolidation and accumulation are normal, requiring patience to wait for the direction to be chosen.
$OKB
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 Long and Short Crowding List
The paid direction is just the starting point; the key is whether the price moves after payment.
$FLOCK Current rate -0.0179%, settled +0.005% in the past 24 hours, at the 0% percentile of recent samples. The downward move is not accompanied by position liquidation; new positions make this fluctuation more alarming. The current rate is opposite to the settled direction in the past 24 hours, indicating position costs are switching sides; next, watch if OI expands accordingly. There is only one settlement point in the historical sample, so the percentile is only for reference.
$ZEC Current rate -0.0052%, settled -0.032% in the past 24 hours, at the 5% percentile of recent samples. Positions reduced during the 15-minute decline; the clearest signal now is position exit and deleveraging. When positions decrease, extreme rates may quickly revert; currently, it is more suitable to observe deleveraging rather than chase direction.
$LAB Current rate +0.0050%, settled +0.043% in the past 24 hours, at the 45% percentile of recent samples. Price falls with position reduction, risk exposure is contracting, which cannot be directly interpreted as new short positions. OI contraction indicates risk exposure is withdrawing; the rate only indicates which side has higher costs and cannot replace detailed liquidation direction.Pure naked K intraday trading technical analysis of BTC and ETH
$BTC 24-hour trading volume has directly shrunk by half, and after midnight last night it started to pull back, pulling back for about 12 hours. The current downtrend has stopped; shorting is not recommended, nor is going long.
Shorting carries high risk, and going long has limited profit potential.
Low volatility, oscillating upward. It’s possible that before a few oscillation cycles finish, the next wave of positive or negative news will arrive, so opening a position is not recommended.
$ETH is similar to BTC, with 24-hour trading volume halved.
The lowest pullback point did not break the previous bottom, oscillating upward, the downtrend has stopped, and short-term long positions can be taken at low levels. However, staying out of the market is advised.
Two major events next week.
1. #CLARITY替代修正案公布，贝森特呼吁参院推进 The Clarity Act replacement amendment is announced; Bassett calls on the Senate to advance it. The Clarity Act is crucial for the entire crypto market trend and compliance, with long-term influence maximized.
2. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 The Federal Reserve’s three votes favoring a rate hike, with tonight’s PCE as a new focus. The Fed’s policy meeting will mainly impact Hong Kong and US stocks, the US dollar, and the crypto market in the medium to long term, worth watching. #创作者激励 Many people firmly believe: Bitcoin will definitely return to its peak and create a new all-time high.
The logic supporting this belief is clear: a total supply capped at 21 million creating scarcity, continuous institutional ETF capital deployment, the historical pattern of halving cycles, some countries treating it as a foreign exchange reserve channel, and long-term demand steadily accumulating. As long as it survives each bear market, Bitcoin will always cross through bull and bear cycles to set new highs.
However, the absolute judgment that it will "definitely return to the peak" hides several hard constraints that cannot be ignored; there is no 100% guaranteed upward trajectory:
1. History repeating ≠ future replication guaranteed
In past cycles, Bitcoin indeed fell before reaching new highs, but this conclusion was based on relaxed regulation at the time, continuous global liquidity expansion, and the internet adoption dividend. If global regulatory policies tighten continuously in the future, with multiple countries directly restricting institutional holdings and ETF trading, the logic of institutional capital entry will be directly interrupted, and historical patterns will fail. Cycles are only past statistics, not a fixed script.
2. Its "scarcity" narrative has limits
The fixed total supply of 21 million is a fact at the code level, but Bitcoin has no cash flow, no dividends, and does not generate profits itself. Its value comes entirely from market consensus and the price that capital is willing to assign. Once consensus loosens and large amounts of capital shift to other assets, scarcity alone cannot support the price. Gold has thousands of years of safe-haven consensus, while Bitcoin's consensus is very recent and far from unshakable.
3. Macro liquidity is the biggest variable
Past major bull markets were basically accompanied by global interest rate cuts and massive liquidity injections. If the world maintains a high interest rate environment for a long time, capital will prefer conservative assets, and risk asset valuations will continue to be suppressed. Even with ETFs, the speed and scale of capital inflows may fail to meet market expectations, prolonging the bottoming process, possibly for years without breaking previous highs.
4. There are potential challenges on the technology and competition front
The crypto space continues to iterate, with new underlying public chains and digital asset solutions constantly emerging; meanwhile, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) promoted by various countries will divert some demand for "digital hard assets." Bitcoin only serves as a store of value with a single function, and consensus may be diluted in the long term.
5. Time cost is an easily overlooked price
Even if the historical high is reached again after many years, it does not mean the investment was worthwhile. There could be a prolonged bear market with sideways movement for several years, with extremely high capital occupation and opportunity costs. Most people cannot withstand the large drawdowns in between, neither in position nor in mindset, making it difficult to capture that round of gains.
One can be optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential opportunities but cannot make the absolute conclusion that it will "definitely return to the peak." The return of a bull market is a probabilistic event, not a certainty; the market always carries the possibility of long-term weakness and consensus decay. $BTC#财报观察员：Oracle AI cloud revenue up 121%
Just saw Oracle's earnings report, and the data is truly eye-catching. AI cloud infrastructure OCI revenue surged 121%, even stronger than last quarter's 93%, and remaining performance obligations rose to $664 billion. This order volume clearly shows that AI computing power demand is genuinely being converted into real money.
But the strange thing is, despite such explosive earnings, the related token xORCL actually dropped 4.58%.
Why does good performance still get punished? Because capital expenditure is just too high, and free cash flow remains under pressure. The market logic now is very harsh; having orders and revenue is not enough, you also have to prove you can actually generate profits and cash flow. Look at Adobe, it's the same—earnings beat expectations, but the market remains cautious about the AI commercialization pace, so xADBE only rose slightly by 0.97%.
This shows the AI track has changed, from the first half of the year’s "who burns more money and tells better stories" to the second half’s "who can turn computing power into real cash."
The same applies to our crypto market; recently AI concept coins have been struggling because funds are weighing narrative against monetization. Oracle’s earnings report is a touchstone, proving demand still exists, but the real profitability test is just beginning. Next, keep an eye on these giants’ capital expenditures and cash flow. If pressure continues, the high-valuation tech and AI sectors will have to endure this "good earnings but stock price falls" growing pain.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC ETHFI current price is 0.7685, with thin buy orders on the order book and a dense sell wall stacked between 0.78 and 0.80 above. There is no sign of incremental capital entering, contract open interest is flat, and the long-short ratio leans bearish. The news is all noise, so ignoring it.
Just closed the registration book, a car outside is about to enter the garage, so I lifted the barrier.
The 4-hour candlestick repeatedly closes with upper shadows, with resistance around 0.775 repeatedly tested and pushed back. MACD fast and slow lines are converging and diverging downward, with shrinking volume. The support below is at 0.74, breaking that looks toward 0.71. Intraday bias is bearish.
In terms of operation, short directly near the current price of 0.7685, add positions around 0.778. Take profit first target at 0.745, second target at 0.728. Stop loss at 0.792, accept loss if broken.
Leverage should not exceed 5x, control position size well. The logic of this trade is simply sell wall suppression plus volume contraction and a gradual decline, not complicated.
$ETHFI
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
@OKX星球 按照我对数据的分析，它大概率还是要继续下跌的。 目前，市场上并没有太多的资金进去抄底，现在的平稳主要是由大量的散户空头止盈造成的。 我认为，这种平稳的结局是下跌。 不过，按照我过往的观察，这种币在暴跌前很有可能会拉高诱多，然后猛然往下暴跌。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 我们可以发现，在它上涨过程中，合约多空比迅速下跌，对应的合约持仓量快速上线。 这说明，在它上涨过程中，是有非常多的资金在做空的。 我们再观察，可以发现，在它下跌的过程中，合约多空比在上升，合约持仓量在下降。 这说明，在它下跌过程中，目前主要是空头在止盈， 我们再仔细观察，可以发现它合约多空比上升的幅度巨大，而合约持仓量下降的幅度并不大。 根据这一点，我们再结合它现在的资费负得非常厉害。 我推断，目前市场做空$IOST 的大户应该还没走，或者现在市场上有很多的散户在接盘。 无论是哪个推断，我认为对于$IOST 都是利空的。 —————————————————— 总得来说，我认为它还要跌。 按照之前的观察，它有可能会高拉一波之后跌。 我个人认为，可以等它高拉，然后再考虑做空。 可惜了，我之Weekly strategy disclosed, now reviewing. Today the 2490-2510 dip was caught again.
0907: Position valid, gained several dozen points.
0908: Low position strategy continues, target not fully reached.
0909: Continuous execution, single trade max 36.6 points.
0910: Failed to catch dip near 2460, strict stop loss at 2440.
0911: Stop loss moved down to 2405, caught dip again at 2425–2440, finally pulled from 2430 all the way to 2666, over two hundred points of space. The strategy isn’t brilliant every day, but every day there is a position, a stop loss, and a target.
If wrong, stop loss; if market changes, adjust; if right, take profit.
The strongest move this Tuesday was the 2425–2440 dip catch given early on 0911, with a low of 2430 and a high of 2666, over two hundred points of space realized directly.
That’s why I always say, trading isn’t about telling stories after the market moves.
Positions must be given before the market moves. Anyone can be a Monday morning quarterback. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #CLARITY替代修正案公布，贝森特呼吁参院推进 Greed hit 63, four days before Clarity Act cloture and the FOMC land on the same day.
Trump just said oil won't drop until after the midterms confirming energy costs stay elevated straight through the Fed's decision window.
Greed, thin weekend liquidity, and inflation that isn't cooling. That combination doesn't end quietly.
What breaks first the greed, or the "transitory" story?$LAB #山寨永续未平仓量21个月来首次超过BTC In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $674 million, with 94,000 people being liquidated. Long positions totaled 292 million, short positions 381 million.
At first glance, the shorts look worse off, but a closer look is more interesting: BTC long and short liquidations are about the same, but ETH short liquidations reached 215 million, more than twice the longs. The largest single liquidation was on Hyperliquid, a single ETH short position liquidated for $20.28 million.
The root cause is CPI. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding expectations; the probability of a rate hike jumped from under 50% to 80%; U.S. Treasury yields approached 5%; oil prices rose over 8% in a single week.
But the market moved in a very typical pattern: BTC was first dumped to 76,000, then pulled back to 79,837, with a golden cross appearing. As rate hike expectations heated up, the price immediately reversed, invalidating the golden cross on the same day. ETH surged to 2,600 but then fell back.
Shorts believed the macro logic was perfect: PPI exceeded expectations, CPI was hot, rate hikes were certain, so they firmly shorted. The result was a pump that squeezed 381 million in short positions. After the shorts were mostly flushed out, the price began to fall.
What about the longs? They saw the rebound and thought the bad news was fully priced in, chased in, and then got liquidated in a round.
Both sides got slapped.
This is the kind of market I fear most when trading: not because I’m afraid of losing money, but because I get the direction right, yet my position gets flushed midway, so when the real move comes, I have no chips left.
Where did the money for that rebound come from? When the 381 million short positions were forcefully closed, the system had to buy to close those positions. These buy orders fueled the bullish candles. It wasn’t new money entering the market; it was shorts carrying the longs on their shoulders.September rate-hike odds are now near 90% — so why hasn’t crypto dumped? Three reasons: 1️⃣ It’s already priced in Strong NFP, higher oil prices, and hawkish Fed signals already pushed hike odds sharply higher. The market shifted from “sell the expectation” to “buy the realization.” The initial liquidity flush was quickly absorbed. 2️⃣ Inflation isn’t yet viewed as out of control PPI/CPI pressure is largely tied to energy prices. Markets are pricing a potential 25bp hike, not a long series of ag$INTC
When the market drops more than 5%, does INTC reflect macro issues or company-specific problems?
INTC fell about 5.6% on September 10, significantly weaker than the Nasdaq's roughly 0.7% decline. Such a large relative weakness usually cannot be explained by index pullbacks alone.
The market may be simultaneously concerned about manufacturing inputs, competitive pressure, and profit-taking cycles. If the semiconductor sector stabilizes but INTC continues to lag, it indicates that the company-specific discount is widening.
If subsequent orders, yield rates, or foundry customer progress improve and drive a rebound in relative strength, I will reassess; until then, low valuation alone does not prove the decline is fully priced in. Today $SNDK is really putting on a show
First giving hope, then leaving suspense
Still a short way from my take-profit level
No rush, the market is best at testing patience
The noisier the news, the easier the market is to shake out
Korean stocks and Hynix are the daytime barometers
If they weaken first, $SNDK will have a hard time pretending nothing's wrong
If it stubbornly moves independently, then respect the market
I’ve left room in my position
One trade freed up, breathing a bit easier
Margin is a hard constraint
Every trade must be calculated clearly, no getting carried away
$SNDK I’m still bearish
Won’t flip to bullish lightly before the target
Entering later is better than chasing recklessly
CPI, PPI, and the Fed are lined up
Tomorrow night will reveal the truth
Writing seriously, waiting seriously
🐎 can charge, stop loss can’t be lost
Let’s wait and see
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Last night's CPI market disrupted many people's trading logic
Originally, the market expected that if the core CPI was close to or above 0.3%, the probability of a rate hike would continue to rise, and BTC and HYPE should face downward pressure. But the actual movement was: first a sell-off, then a rally.
Many explained this as "the bad news is fully priced in," but strictly speaking, this is not entirely accurate.
True bad news being fully priced in requires the market to have fully priced in the risk and for subsequent uncertainty to decrease. But this time is different: rate hike expectations have not completely ended, the September FOMC meeting remains a key point, and future policy paths still have uncertainties.
There may be three core reasons:
First, the market had already bet on a worse outcome. When the CPI did not worsen to an extreme level, short positions began to cover, causing a rapid rebound.
Second, leveraged funds were flushed out. The large number of high-level short positions and long-short battles earlier required a violent market swing to complete turnover.
Third, long-term funds did not show obvious panic exits. The BTC rally logic still partly comes from institutional allocation, not just short-term leverage.
So last night's market looked more like:
Down, trading the risk of rate hikes;
Up, trading "not as bad as imagined"
But don't mistake a rebound for a trend reversal.
What truly determines BTC's next phase direction remains the Federal Reserve meetings, the US dollar trend, and whether funds continue to flow back.
The hardest part of the market is never understanding the data, but understanding what funds are actually trading after the data is released. $BTC #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 The probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 90%, so why hasn't the market reacted with the usual "rate hike = sell-off"?
1. Negative factors have already been priced in
With strong non-farm payrolls, high oil prices, and hawkish signals from the Fed, the market had already pushed the rate hike probability from 35% to 70%. The logic shifted to: "sell the expectation, buy the realization." The initial reaction to the data release was a liquidity sell-off and stop-loss sweeps, but buying on dips quickly returned.
2. Inflation is mainly driven by energy shocks, not a full-blown loss of control
The heat in PPI/CPI mainly comes from oil prices. The market fears "uncontrolled inflation + consecutive rate hikes," but pricing is closer to "one 25bp hike first," not a series of aggressive tightenings.
3. Funds have not massively exited crypto but are reallocating between BTC and ETH.
BTC spot ETFs have seen slight outflows in recent days, but outflows narrowed on September 11;
ETH spot ETFs had about $216 million inflow on September 11 alone, which explains why ETH is more resilient and even stronger than BTC.
This does not mean rate hikes have become bullish:
If the FOMC hikes rates next week and issues a more hawkish guidance, rates could step up again, increasing pressure on risk assets.
$BTC Support level at 76000; a decisive break below signals a weakening trend
$ETH 2,500 is the bull-bear dividing line; watch 2435 support
$ZEC Currently structurally strong; upper liquidity between 1218-1245; a decisive break below 1125 would trigger a bearish exit #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 Stonkfly: Fruit fly brain connected to BTC, default paper $100, dopamine is engineering wiring
Coinbase engineers open-sourced Stonkfly: connecting the entire fruit fly brain map (about 166,000 neurons) to BTC/USDC K-line, default paper $100, single transaction limit about $10, up to about 24 times a day.
Profit stimulates 15 dopamine neurons, loss stimulates 2 aversion neurons—this is engineering wiring, not the fly itself learning to read the market. The repository states: learning that has not yet been proven to make money, in a bull market, buying randomly can look smart.
It's lively but don't take demo screenshots as trading signals.$ETH is currently the most dangerous place in the market, not because people don't know the risks, but because they know the risks and still pretend they won't happen.
The FOMC decision hasn't landed yet, but the market has already traded the most comfortable scenario in advance: no rate hikes, continued easing, or even if rates rise, the market will keep going up.
This is a typical case of "retail investors love to fantasize, they won't cry until they see the coffin." The dereliction of duty and late rate hikes by Powell before retiring at the end of the bull market caused a group of risk-tolerant, nearly fearless prefrontal cortex-damaged beings to earn wealth they shouldn't have.
The real problem is that the later the rate hikes, the greater the policy cost later on. When inflation and financial conditions have already cornered the central bank, but the market still maintains extremely high risk appetite, continuing to chase gains at this point is essentially no longer making money on certainty, but betting a position on a "low-probability perfect outcome."
Investing is not about who is braver.
When the odds are severely asymmetric, those who can still make money are not necessarily more rational; they might just be lunatics who haven't lost yet.
The market can keep rising, and I can follow the market to continue momentum trading, but I will definitely use protective trailing stops and reversals. However, this is a different matter from "this is a place worth betting on." $BTC $SOL #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 Last night's CPI script confused me: I originally thought the core CPI month-on-month would hit 0.41%, triggering the rate hike line, and BTC and HYPE would be doomed.
But first, it dropped, blasting over 80 million orders from a giant whale, then rallied all the way up, which really makes one question reality. The market is shouting "all bad news is out," but that's a stretch: the previous 62% rate hike expectation was only partially priced in; the real shoe drops at the meeting on the 17th, and there are still two rate hike risks within the year, combined with US Treasury yields approaching 5%, the macro outlook is far from clear.
On-chain smart money (which once made millions from $SETH) opened a 4x BTC short, indicating the main force is still betting on a drop. Current selling pressure is less than half of last month, and the price hasn't hit my expected 70,000; market resilience exceeds expectations. But with ETF continuous net outflows and Coinbase premium turning negative, the funding side remains weak.
This round of rise and fall is a shakeout, not a trend reversal. 76,000 is the life-or-death line for bulls and bears; if broken, it will trigger a chain of forced liquidations; before hitting 70,000, the market is firmer than imagined, but under the looming rate hikes, beware of "buying the expectation and selling the fact," control leverage, and wait for the 17th to decide.
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 Active Trading Radar
Market orders reveal first; if the price doesn't cooperate, no matter how much active trading occurs, a different explanation is needed.
$SNDK active buy trades account for 94.2%, net active 176,100, price only +0.03%, the buying pressure failing to push the price is the current reality.
$BTC active buys account for 72.7%, price response +0.04%; only when subsequent displacement amplifies can this buying pressure be considered truly effective.
$ETH net active sell is -3.17M, price response still +0.09%, selling pressure is active but hasn't pushed the price down.Metaplanet cut its executive bonus pool by 40%, wiping out over 200 million USD on the books. The company is still talking about the $BTC strategy, but the management first shrinks their own share. This is not bearish; it's a more sophisticated form of bullishness: letting insiders take less so that outsiders continue to believe the story is still about $BTC $ZEC dropped 12% in one day, but I'm still buying
$ZEC fell from above $1200 down to around $1100 this time, with a maximum drop of over 12% in one day.
But I'm still buying
Because when the price dropped,I reviewed the ZCSH data again.Grayscale's Zcash ETF was only launched on August 25, and by September 8, its assets had already exceeded $530 million
On September 8, DCG directly exchanged 85,705 ZEC for about $100 million worth of ZCSH
#SeptHikeOddsHit90%
#BTCSpotETF450MOutflow ETH surged above 2537 with increased volume, BTC still hasn't closed above 77405
From 21:00 to 22:00, ETH rose 0.356%, trading volume was 2.96 times, closing at 2544.59, surpassing 2537.35; open interest increased by 0.036%.
BTC trading volume was 3.18 times, reached a high of 77400, closed at 77369.9; among 9 coin samples, 5 rose and 4 fell.
If ETH holds above 2537.35 and BTC closes above 77405, the main trend resonates; if ETH falls below 2533.24, the lead fails. Before BTC confirms, do you acknowledge ETH leading the rally?
Source: OKX API; as of 22:00, confirm=1.
#BTC #ETH🚨 Brothers, today's update is indeed late 😂
It's not laziness, but this set of ETF data deserves a thorough review!
Yesterday's capital flow showed clear divergence again:
📉 BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $13.29 million, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of capital withdrawal.
Among them, BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day net outflow of about $19.23 million, but its historical cumulative net inflow still exceeds $64 billion.
📈 ETH spot ETFs attracted about $216 million, with capital clearly more active than BTC. Some data sources have differences in statistical calibers, so the exact amounts need to be further confirmed with different tracking institutions.
This is interesting:
BTC: Institutional funds cooling off in the short term
ETH: Capital reception significantly strengthened
This does not mean we are immediately entering "altcoin season," but at least it indicates that internal market capital is beginning to be reallocated.
Adding to this, with recent high oil prices, US inflation pressure, and rising expectations for Federal Reserve policy, macro liquidity remains tight. The latest market data shows that US investors have recently significantly increased their sensitivity to changes in Federal Reserve policy. STRK 200 Million Market Cap Sideways, Smart Money Collectively Shorting: The "Invisible Crisis" of Starknet
Market cap 206 million, daily volume only 2.52 million, turnover rate less than 1.3%—STRK exemplifies textbook "low volatility, low turnover, smart money net short" trio, illustrating what "institutional abandonment, retail numbness" means.
Quoted at $0.0288, down 0.38% in 24 hours, amplitude 0.0277–0.0305 only 10%. Price seems nailed to the cross: it doesn't fall because no one wants to sell (liquidity too poor to push down), it doesn't rise because no one dares to buy (no fundamental growth). Social sentiment all dimensions N/A, even too lazy to create FUD—the scariest thing is not being shorted, but being forgotten.
Smart money signals are clear at a glance: net short, zero net positions, zero long accounts. This is not bearishness, it's "clearing out to be done." Starknet ecosystem TVL stagnates, ZK-Rollup narrative diverted by new chains like Base, Linea, token unlocking pressure continuously released, institutions have long voted with their feet. Funding rates persistently discounted, futures basis negative, short structure has become entrenched.
Core judgment: STRK has fallen into a value trap of "no one going long, volume declining," unless the ecosystem experiences explosive growth, it will slowly bleed to new lows. Xingran's Analysis of BTC/ETH Market Next Week
ETH
Price: 2543, weekly decline: -2.44%. The highest point reached 2666, but it has currently pulled back to 2543. This pattern appearing on the weekly chart is commonly called a "shooting star," which is a strong short-term topping or resistance signal. Prior to this, ETH experienced a very strong rally, surging directly from around 1800 to above 2500. The current pullback is a correction of this sharp rise.
Support and Resistance:
Strong resistance: 2666 and the 2600 round number.
Strong support: 2200-2300 range. If it breaks below here, the trend may be disrupted.
BTC
Price: 77346, weekly decline: -1.79%. After testing the 82000 high, it has been consolidating sideways at a high level for several weeks. This week's candlestick is currently a bearish candle with an upper shadow, indicating that selling pressure at the 80000 level remains heavy.
Net outflow: $303 million, which is a warning signal on the weekly level, indicating that some major funds have chosen to take profits at the high level rather than continue adding positions.
Key levels:
Support: 75000 and 70000.
Resistance: 80000 - 82000.
Long-term strategy: Wait for pullback to buy more
Although there is short-term pullback risk, from the big picture, the bull market structure has not been completely broken. The current decline looks more like "reversing to pick up passengers."
Trading advice:
Do not chase longs now! The current price is at the "fish tail" or "early pullback" stage, with a poor risk-reward ratio.
ETH buy-in point: Patiently wait for the price to fall back to the 2200 - 2300 range. If it stabilizes there, it is an excellent weekly-level buying point.
BTC buy-in point: Watch the 72000 - 74000 range, which is a dense trading area before the last rally, providing strong support. $ETH $BTC #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%