陈桂林谈交易
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Gotta admit, comparing yourself to others can be deadly.
Recently, the maximum number of manual positions I open is 4 different types; if I open more, the best case is hedging, but most of the time I lose.
But I have a buddy 👯♂️ who I’ve seen open at least 20 altcoins every time, and in the end, he always makes huge profits 🤣
Every time I try to go big, it ends up going big... in the wrong way.
So, trading is all about profit as the primary principle; the method doesn’t matter, what matters is what suits you.
It's like: you are especially FOMO about a stock or a coin;
you have to buy it, own it, hold it as it rises, watch it fall;
only after going through all that can you remove the filter you have on that asset.
蓝狐
For most people, to demystify money, one must have possessed a large sum of money; to demystify fame, one must become a celebrity; to demystify beauty, one must have truly lived with beautiful women and men; otherwise, the inner demons cannot be let go (sometimes what seems like letting go is actually helplessness, not true release).
There is also a path that very few take, much more difficult than the ones mentioned above: by expanding inward, finding a more wonderful existence, demystifying money/beauty/fame/interest, and discovering a path to true inherent completeness and self-sufficiency.
Rather than saying people are slaves to desire, a better way to put it is: desires define that we are living, breathing human beings.
Sexual desire: the genetic code passed down, the driving force behind human development to this day.
Then, a strong appetite, the desire to express, the desire to share—all are signs of a person's vibrant and lively vitality;
So, if you see a KOL saying they have no desires or demands, quickly call them out, because they are probably bragging too much; people with no desires or demands are very rare in reality, I've only seen them in "In the Name of the People." 😂
The truth is: in this life, you have to get through today to have a tomorrow, so you should live today well.
--------------- Reflections after reading Qin Jian's house layout
Once you've seen the vast ocean, no other water will suffice; except for Mount Wu, no other clouds compare~ So beautiful!
"Iran has stated more directly that unless the U.S. accepts the conditions proposed by Tehran, the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened."
To be honest, I don't think Iran's tactic of using the strait as a threat to coerce the world will have any good outcome;
In the short term, you can use a small force to challenge a big one, pressing step by step, making the blue planet's leader howl in pain, which is quite impressive;
But in the long term, the fact that others remain silent now only means they haven't reached their limit yet and don't want to stir up trouble, but people's patience is limited; it's not that they won't retaliate, it's just that the time hasn't come.
This tactic of playing with the strait does not align with the interests of anyone in the world except Iran, and that is the biggest interest.
The crypto circle has once again reached the classic stage of using Bitcoin to suppress prices, $ETH is still holding above 1875, and Bitcoin is starting with 63 again; but that's good, so I'll just buy it back;
With such low volatility and no funding rate pressure, adding some leverage to spend 1 dollar as if it were 100, trading crypto like spending money, awesome!
The US stock market has earnings reports, the usual tactic is to use earnings to suppress prices, either before or after the report; the crypto circle has none of that, so... but this time it looks like they might be using CPI to suppress.
I can only say I hope this time $CRCL doesn't turn out to be a scam, after all, this time it's definitely not some pump-and-dump news.
For this stock, I even have a dedicated phone and a dedicated BIT account. This phone only has the BIT trading app, and only holds the CRCL coin;
When the drop becomes unbearable, I just turn it off and throw it under the bed.
陈桂林谈交易
To be honest, for a target like Circle. $CRCL #CRCL
If you are a native crypto person, you bought it, you even have a large position, you study it every day, and then you see it rise to 200 in the next cycle, I really think it's unnecessary.
The chosen ones entered below 60, the average retail investors (myself included) entered above 80;
One reaches 200, 3x; the other reaches 200, just over 2x;
Then, with this volatility and holding experience, isn't buying Bitcoin more appealing? On a familiar battlefield, casually adding some low leverage, or partially leveraging to T trade back and forth, the benefits are enough to cover it. Most importantly, when Bitcoin's main uptrend comes, the holding experience is awesome!
I do have FOMO buying this thing, definitely FOMO, and indeed nothing else to buy, just like last cycle when I bought a bunch of $OP $RNDR below 1, hoarding in the bear market. I treat it as a fundamentally backed altcoin, at least expecting 3-5x, at least breaking the previous high, something like that~
To be honest, for a target like Circle. $CRCL #CRCL
If you are a native crypto person, you bought it, you even have a large position, you study it every day, and then you see it rise to 200 in the next cycle, I really think it's unnecessary.
The chosen ones entered below 60, the average retail investors (myself included) entered above 80;
One reaches 200, 3x; the other reaches 200, just over 2x;
Then, with this volatility and holding experience, isn't buying Bitcoin more appealing? On a familiar battlefield, casually adding some low leverage, or partially leveraging to T trade back and forth, the benefits are enough to cover it. Most importantly, when Bitcoin's main uptrend comes, the holding experience is awesome!
I do have FOMO buying this thing, definitely FOMO, and indeed nothing else to buy, just like last cycle when I bought a bunch of $OP $RNDR below 1, hoarding in the bear market. I treat it as a fundamentally backed altcoin, at least expecting 3-5x, at least breaking the previous high, something like that~
陈桂林谈交易
The circle pattern, which has been consolidating sideways within a price range for over a month, is either a large-scale continuation of a downtrend or a bottoming range. Personally, I lean towards the latter.
Analysis after the rebound:
1. Since the drop from 140, the POC is at 63, VAL at 58, and VAH at 88;
2. The range where the structure coincides with Fibonacci is 77-90, corresponding to the 0.236-0.382 Fibonacci retracement of this decline;
3. At the same time, around 90 is also the neckline of the M-top;
The above evidence indicates that this range will be a significant resistance zone, with a range of about 20%;
Therefore, once the rebound starts, this range will be the first level to be tested.
Talking about the current adjustments to my positions:
1. Gold: Bought at 4150, closed at 4400. It's not that I think gold won't continue to rise, but I believe the simplest and fastest phase earlier is basically over. Now there is structural resistance above; it might continue to rise, but a pullback or sideways consolidation is more likely; (Chart 1)
At the same time, since gold is a large market cap, low volatility trading asset, the position size tends to be relatively large, which is not very suitable for capital allocation, so I closed it.
2. Crude oil: A few days ago I posted about waiting for an opportunity in crude oil. Now I think it's time to open a position (short). The chart was posted in the community this afternoon; (Chart 2)
3. $LITE: Opened a long position
① From a technical analysis perspective, it's about wave 1, waiting for wave 2, then trading wave 3. Now wave 1 is done, wave 2 has arrived, so there's no reason not to get in. However, since yesterday's entry was a bit early (850), I took a loss and rebuilt the position today; (Chart 3)
② Yesterday, I posted the earnings report date under the Guanghulian analysis post, thinking this pullback is a normal risk-off move before the earnings report from previous profit-taking. Also, because this stock's volatility is inherently high, the drop looks significant;
Since it has already dropped before the earnings report, providing a safety buffer, it's time to consider holding the long position through the earnings, but with slightly controlled position size in case it continues to fall after the report, leaving room for adjustments.
4. Transferred $BTC to $ETH long positions and closed them. I still believe BTC will at least test 70,000, and ETH will definitely start with 2 (i.e., 20,000+), but these two are moving too slowly, with low volatility of 1%-2% back and forth. Holding them requires daily attention, so I decided not to hold anymore as there's no short-term speculative value.
In fact, from early June until now, BTC has been in a poor market, suitable only for spot trading, not speculation.
Report complete!
From the crypto era to the US stock era, @qinbafrank has always been a blogger I must follow with a little bell;
His content is deep, and he is warm as a person, (* ￣3)(ε￣ *)
Tomorrow night at 21:30, Frank @qinbafrank and Mercy @Mercy_okx will be live on OKX Planet to talk about AI, gold, and the next round of opportunities after the recent market adjustment. I've already got my little notebook ready to take notes.
A few days ago, I saw news from OKX that X Layer's stablecoin issuance exceeded $2 billion;
So today, as the boundary between stocks and on-chain assets becomes increasingly blurred, where will the next round of opportunities appear first?
Mercy_okx
August is the best summer
This sentence is Frank @qinbafrank's recent judgment on the market.
It's been over a month since I last talked with Frank about the SpaceX IPO, and now it's just the right time to look back and review.
But this time, it's not just about SpaceX——
The US stock market has just undergone an adjustment, AI is starting to diverge internally, but gold is rising again. Is the market still betting on growth, or is it already preparing for risks?
Coincidentally, tomorrow night the US July CPI will be released one hour before the live broadcast. After the data comes out, how will US bonds, the dollar, tech stocks, gold, and BTC vote? We'll directly watch the market reaction without guessing the answer in advance.
▫️SpaceX: Which of the previous judgments have been realized?
▫️AI: The long-term trend remains, so why are some good companies actually falling?
▫️Gold: Which key signals have changed?
▫️August: Where are the opportunities, and what risks are most worth watching out for?
Tomorrow night at 21:30, come to the OKX Planet live room! This time, about one-third of the time will be reserved for real-time comments, so everyone can ask questions directly 😁
The circle pattern, which has been consolidating sideways within a price range for over a month, is either a large-scale continuation of a downtrend or a bottoming range. Personally, I lean towards the latter.
Analysis after the rebound:
1. Since the drop from 140, the POC is at 63, VAL at 58, and VAH at 88;
2. The range where the structure coincides with Fibonacci is 77-90, corresponding to the 0.236-0.382 Fibonacci retracement of this decline;
3. At the same time, around 90 is also the neckline of the M-top;
The above evidence indicates that this range will be a significant resistance zone, with a range of about 20%;
Therefore, once the rebound starts, this range will be the first level to be tested.
