Posteo

One thing the oil market is making very clear right now: geopolitical risk has a price. Recent progress in U.S. Iran talks helped pull some of that premium out of crude, but supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, tanker availability and regional infrastructure are still keeping the market sensitive to every headline. Personally, I think this is why oil has become difficult to read purely through normal supply and demand data. A positive diplomatic headline can push prices lower, while one setback can bring the risk premium straight back. What I’m watching now isn’t just whether the two sides keep talking. I want to see physical conditions improve more normal shipping through Hormuz, lower insurance and freight costs, and fewer disruptions to regional supply. Until that happens, I don’t think the geopolitical premium completely disappears. Talks can reduce fear. Real de-escalation is what removes the risk premium #USIranRiskPremium $BTC