
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23
Suosittu
About FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23
The Fed raised rates 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, first hike since July 2023 after five consecutive holds. Chair Walsh said inflation is 'too high and has lasted too long'. The dot plot shows 16 of 18 officials project at least one more hike before end-2026, pointing to a new tightening cycle. The Dow fell over 600 points, S&P 500 down around 0.4%, Nasdaq near flat. The 10-year yield above 5% keeps pressure on high-valuation assets. The White House is pushing for cuts, at odds with most Fed officials.
Suosittu
Viimeisin
FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 Suositut postaukset
Kiinnitetty
Morgan Stanleyn tulkinta koronnostosta: Tuleeko lisää koronnostoja?
TL;DR
美联储 9 月加息 25 个基点符合预期,但摩根士丹利认为,这次行动不应简单理解为一次性政策调整。
从美联储的决策逻辑看,一旦结束长期暂停并重新加息,委员会通常会考虑一系列行动,而不是认为 25 个基点足以改变宏观前景。
不过,当前通胀很大一部分来自关税、能源等供给侧因素,以及 AI 投资带来的结构性需求,更高利率未必能够直接解决这些问题。
如果未来几个月通胀继续回落,同时 PCE 统计方法调整进一步压低通胀数据,美联储可能原本准备继续加息,却最终没有实施第二次行动。
债券市场目前仍在定价大约三次额外加息,10 年期美债收益率已升至 5% 左右;能源价格正成为影响政策预期的重要变量。
编者按:在美联储重新启动加息之后,市场讨论正在从「9 月是否加息」迅速转向「这是不是新一轮加息周期的起点」。25 个基点本身已经落地,真正影响资产定价的,是后续还有多少次、间隔多久,以及什么条件会让美联储停下来。但当「通胀仍高于目标,因此政策需要更紧」逐渐成为共识,一个更底层的问题开始浮现:如果当前通胀本身并不主要由传统需求过热

Crypto just got another reality check.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, and the reaction in crypto was immediate.
$BTC → swung around the $75K–$76K area
$ETH → moved between roughly $2.37K and $2.43K
$SOL → was slightly higher after the decision.
It's how differently these assets are reacting to the same environment.
Bitcoin is dealing with macro pressure.
Ethereum is trying to hold its position while risk appetite changes.
Solana is still attracting attention despite the broader U

📊 Post-FOMC Market Update
The market is stabilizing after the Fed’s 25bp hike, which was largely priced in.
$BTC → $75.9K | Support: $75K
$ETH → $2.40K | Still weak
$SOL → $97.4 | Risk appetite low
$XRP → $1.28 | Weakest major
$ZEC → $1.22K | Relative strength
Total market cap: $2.60T
BTC dominance: 58.5%
$BTC holding $75K remains key for market stability.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve
CRYPTO MARKET STEADIES AS BTC RECLAIMS $76K AFTER FED RATE HIKE
$BTC $ETH
Bitcoin has climbed back above $76,000 and is holding around the key $76,200 level, showing resilience following the Fed’s first 25 bps rate hike since 2023. ETH and ZEC are also joining the broader market recovery.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #LongYields5%NewNormal
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 The first Fed hike since 2023 matters. But the bigger signal may be what comes next 👀
The Fed raised rates 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, ending five straight holds. More importantly, its September projections show the median policy rate at 4.1% for end-2026, with most officials clustered above today's midpoint. Inflation is still projected at 3.7% this year.
What caught my attention is how quickly the market narrative has flipped. Not long ago, investors were debating when easing might return. Now the question is how long this renewed tightening phase lasts.
That matters when the 10-year yield is already above 5%. Higher rates don't just pressure stocks. They raise the hurdle rate for AI spending, corporate borrowing, housing and leveraged crypto positions.
The Fed and White House may debate where rates should go. Markets have to price where they actually go.
If inflation stays sticky, the bigger risk may not be this 25bps hike. It may be investors realizing that expensive money is sticking around.
CRYPTO MARKET HOLDS FIRM AS BTC RECLAIMS $76K AFTER FED HIKE
$BTC $ETH
Bitcoin climbed back above $76,000 and is holding the key $76,200 zone, showing resilience despite the Fed’s first 25 bps rate hike since 2023. ETH and ZEC are also participating in the steady recovery.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23
#BIP110ForkStalls
#LongYields5%NewNormal
The Fed just ended three years of stillness. First hike since July 2023.
The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25bps, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Chair Warsh said inflation is "too high and has been for too long." The market had largely priced it in, with hike odds near 93% by decision day after hot August inflation data helped flip expectations.
But the hike itself is not the story. The dot plot is.
The new median dot implies one more 25bps hike before year-end, putting December firmly in play. The updated projections:
· PCE inflation is now seen at 3.7% for end-2026, up from 3.6% in June
· Core PCE rose to 3.4%, and the Fed does not expect inflation back at 2% until 2029
· Unemployment was revised down to 4.1%, while 2026 GDP growth moved up to 2.3%
· The longer-run fed funds rate projection rose to 3.2%, keeping higher-for-longer in the frame
Behind the inflation problem is an energy shock tied to the Iran conflict, with oil back above $100 and diesel prices elevated. The White House wants lower rates. The Fed delivered the opposite.
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% before the decision, then pulled back toward 4.96%. In H1 2026, US spot BTC ETFs saw about $5.4B in net outflows as BTC fell from the mid-$90K area in January to the low-$60K area in May. The CLARITY Act also failed its Senate cloture vote 49-50 one day before the Fed, pulling a key regulatory catalyst off the table.
Bitcoin briefly popped after the announcement, then gave the move back. Nobody heard a Fed that thinks the job is finished. Warsh also avoided committing to a fixed path, keeping the next move data-dependent.
The Q4 setup: rates higher, oil elevated, yields near 5%, ETF demand fragile and regulatory progress stalled. That is not an easy soft-landing setup.
Which matters more for BTC into Q4: the dot plot, ETF flows, or regulatory uncertainty?
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23

$BTC / $ETH post-Fed 📊
Fed hiked 25bps. Unanimous. Warsh hawkish.
Priced in. No panic dump. No melt-up.
$BTC — around $75.8K.
Wick $75.3K. $76K is still broken.
Support: $75K. Lose it, and $73K is next.
Bulls need $77.5K back. $80K is not in play.
$ETH — around $2.38K.
Range $2.37–$2.43 after the print.
$2.45K is still resistance. $2.35K is the floor.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates

$BTC / $ETH post-Fed 📊
Fed hiked 25bps. Unanimous. Warsh hawkish.
Priced in. No panic dump. No melt-up.
$BTC — around $75.8K.
Wick $75.3K. $76K is still broken.
Support: $75K. Lose it, and $73K is next.
Bulls need $77.5K back. $80K is not in play.
$ETH — around $2.38K.
Range $2.37–$2.43 after the print.
$2.45K is still resistance. $2.35K is the floor.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates

So what if interest rates rise? A 4.5% rate can't stop the bull market; consumer confidence is the real trump card!
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% for the first time in three years, and the dot plot hints at possible further hikes.
The Dow Jones plunged over 600 points in response, but BTC stands at 76553.9 (+1.06%), ETH at 2443.61 (+2.17%), with the crypto market defying the trend and showing independent momentum.
Don't be scared by rate hikes.
$ETH trades at 2,442.06 dollars, up 0.97%, holding firm just after the Fed's 25 basis point hike to 3.75%-4%.
Volume hit 543.9 million dollars, the highest among majors and even above BTC's 486.33 million, showing $ETH absorbed the hawkish shift better than expected.
With BTC only up 0.38%, ETH is outperforming despite tighter policy and rising Treasury yields. Watch whether this resilience holds once markets fully digest Warsh's rate path signals.
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23

