#PCEToJacksonHole

🌃 Avant Jackson Hole｜Waller sera-t-il faucon ou colombe ? Ce soir à 20h30, les données PCE de juillet aux États-Unis seront publiées en premier ; vendredi, c'est au tour de Waller. L'inflation et les signaux de politique monétaire pourraient à nouveau influencer les marchés américains, l'or et les cryptomonnaies. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 N'hésitez pas à cliquer sur le sujet pour plus d'informations, discutons ensemble : pensez-vous que Waller émettra un signal faucon ou colombe ? 📊 Vous souhaitez suivre le marché américain ? OKX a désormais lancé $SPY, $QQQ, pour suivre les fluctuations du marché américain et ne pas manquer les opportunités de trading liées aux discours des banques centrales.

PCE delivered numbers, not direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY and rose 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP stayed at 1.5% annualized. Sticky inflation, resilient underlying demand, and no clean signal for the Fed. Rate pricing moved, then came back. September hike odds jumped from about 36% to 44% after the release before easing to 36-37%. Odds of at least one hike by year-end remain near 73%. The broader path barely changed. That shifts attention to Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Friday at 10AM. The symposium's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." A $300B stablecoin market and the GENIUS Act sit in the backdrop, though the keynote's contents are not yet public. Treasury's decision to at least double the cap on long-end liquidity-support buybacks coincided with renewed demand for inflation and dollar-risk hedges. Through Aug 26, BTC was on track for its best August since 2017. The hedge trade is broadening: · August BTC ETF inflows have topped $3B, on track for the strongest month since October 2025 · Cumulative net inflows are near $54.4B, with net assets around $99B · GLD took in $3.4B in the week ended Aug 21, while GLD and IBIT re-entered the top 10 US ETFs by value traded This is not gold versus bitcoin. Both perceived hedges are being bid as investors reassess inflation, the fiscal outlook and dollar risk. Friday also brings a major BTC options expiry: · About 81,700 BTC options worth $6.44B expire at 08:00 UTC · 44,639 calls versus 37,061 puts; put/call ratio 0.83 · Max pain is near $68K · $75K holds about $236M in call OI, with another $157M at $80K Max pain is not a forecast. It misses hedging, entry costs, off-exchange positions and spot demand. But the expiry and Warsh's speech land six hours apart, with BTC near $79K after being rejected around its 50-week average near $81.1K. PCE is done. Friday is the real test. Which matters more for BTC: Warsh's policy tone or the options expiry? #PCEToJacksonHole #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #GoldVsBTCETFFlows

PCE gave the market data, but no clear direction. Core inflation remained at 3.3% YoY and increased 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE came in slightly hotter at 3.7%. Q2 GDP held steady at a 1.5% annualized pace. Overall, inflation remains sticky, demand is still resilient, and the Fed hasn’t received a decisive signal either way. Rate expectations initially reacted sharply, with September hike odds rising from roughly 36% to 44%. #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest

PCE → JACKSON HOLE: THE NEXT TEST FOR $BTC AND $ETH July PCE rose 3.7% YoY, while core PCE held at 3.3%, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and adding uncertainty around September policy. Markets now await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for clearer signals on rates and liquidity. $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after failing to hold above $80K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. A hawkish tone could extend pressure, while dovish signals may support a rebound.

BTC’s next move may come down to one speech — not the PCE data. PCE gave the market numbers, but no clear direction. Core inflation held at 3.3% YoY, GDP stayed at 1.5%, and rate expectations barely changed after the initial reaction. Now the spotlight shifts to Friday. Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair could set the tone for rates, inflation, liquidity and the dollar. #DailyOrbit

US PCE data is out and the overall reading came in stronger than expected. Core PCE stayed flat while personal spending and durable goods orders beat forecasts. The US economy remains resilient, but inflation isn’t cooling fast enough weakening hopes for rapid rate cuts. For gold this is short-term bearish favoring choppy pressure. For $BTC and $ETH there’s no major bullish catalyst. Delayed rate cut expectations could keep the market volatile and range bound #PCEToJacksonHole

#PCEToJacksonHole 🚨 PCE → JACKSON HOLE: $BTC & $ETH ARE ENTERING A MACRO TEST The next major move in Bitcoin and Ethereum may depend less on crypto-specific headlines and more on how the market interprets the latest inflation data and the Fed's policy direction. July PCE came in at 3.7% YoY, while core PCE remained around 3.3%. That's still well above the Fed's 2% inflation target, which means the market has another reason to remain cautious about the path of monetary policy. Now attention turns to Jackson Hole. 🟠 $BTC — $80K REJECTION, $78K IN FOCUS Bitcoin recently failed to maintain the move above $80K and has pulled back toward the $78K area. For now, this looks more like a test of support than a confirmed trend reversal. The key question is whether buyers continue defending the $77K–$78K region. If BTC stabilizes there and macro sentiment improves, a retest of $80K could come quickly. But if the market receives a hawkish message and liquidity expectations deteriorate, support could come under considerably more pressure. 🔵 $ETH — HOLDING $2.5K Ethereum has shown impressive relative strength and remains around $2.5K. That level is becoming increasingly important. If ETH continues holding while BTC consolidates, it would suggest that risk appetite hasn't completely disappeared. But a hawkish macro shock could easily affect both assets, regardless of their individual technical strength. 🏦 JACKSON HOLE IS THE NEXT CATALYST This is where things get interesting. The market isn't simply waiting for a rate decision. It's looking for clues about future liquidity conditions and the Fed's tolerance for inflation. A more hawkish message could strengthen the dollar, push yields higher and put additional pressure on risk assets. A more dovish tone could have the opposite effect, potentially supporting another move higher across BTC and ETH. But the most important thing may be the market's reaction, not the headline itself. 👀 MY FOCUS For BTC: $78K support → $80K resistance For ETH: $2.5K pivot → $2.6K upside area

PCE, Jackson Hole & ETF Flows: Crypto Faces a Key Test Markets are focused on U.S. PCE inflation and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, crucial for Fed-rate expectations. ETF demand remains strong, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting about $1.92B and Ethereum ETFs $697M last week. $BTC is consolidating near $78K–$79K, while $ETH holds around $2.5K. Sticky inflation or hawkish Fed signals could trigger profit-taking, while softer data and supportive policy expectations may sustain risk appetite.

#WarshAtJacksonHole risk may be giving markets too much clarity. Once Warsh lays out what inflation, jobs or growth would trigger a hike, every data release becomes easier to trade against that framework. That could mean sharper moves in yields, the dollar and BTC whenever numbers surprise. Markets say they want predictability, but a clear Fed reaction function can also make macro data more powerful. Jackson Hole may reduce policy uncertainty while increasing event volatility

PCE → JACKSON HOLE: $BTC & $ETH AT A KEY TEST PCE remains above the Fed’s 2% target, keeping September rate-cut expectations uncertain. $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after failing to hold $80K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. 📉 Hawkish Fed: More downside pressure 📈 Dovish Fed: Potential rebound Jackson Hole could decide the next major move.

PCE, Jackson Hole & ETF Flows: Crypto Faces a Key Test Markets are focused on U.S. PCE inflation and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, crucial for Fed-rate expectations. ETF demand remains strong, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting about $1.92B and Ethereum ETFs $697M last week. $BTC is consolidating near $78K–$79K, while $ETH holds around $2.5K. Sticky inflation or hawkish Fed signals could trigger profit-taking, while softer data and supportive policy expectations may sustain risk appetite.