#HormuzTermsInFocus
About HormuzTermsInFocus
US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain alive after Trump rejected Tehran’s seven-day proposal. Iran says normal transit could resume if the US ends its naval blockade, eases oil sanctions and releases frozen assets. Trump expects talks to continue this week. Kpler estimates September crude flows through the strait at about 7.4 million bpd, while major Middle East exporters are shipping at their highest levels since the war began. Will rising flows ease oil supply risks?
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Trump refuse le plan iranien mais affirme vouloir encore discuter cette semaine : la question nucléaire devient la clé pour relancer les négociations
Auteur : Xiao Yanyan, Jin10 Data
Le président américain Trump a déclaré dimanche, heure locale, que bien qu'il ait rejeté le plan de cessez-le-feu proposé par l'Iran, il s'attend à ce que les États-Unis tiennent davantage de pourparlers avec l'Iran cette semaine. Deux sources régionales ont également confirmé qu'un nouveau cycle de négociations indirectes pourrait commencer dès lundi.
Le Qatar et d'autres médiateurs régionaux s'efforcent de pousser les deux parties à revenir à la table des négoc
Terms matter more than headlines here. Talks remain active, but Iran’s conditions link transit to the blockade, sanctions and frozen assets, so higher crude flows do not automatically remove supply risk. With exporters already shipping heavily, the market may be pricing capacity before certainty.
#HormuzTermsInFocus
🇺🇸🇮🇷JUST IN: Oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz has doubled in less than a month to about 13 MILLION barrels a day.
That's back to July's brief peak, as the US military now guides tankers through the strait in broad daylight, per Fortune.
It comes as Trump rejected Iran's 7-day ceasefire offer to reopen the strait, saying Iran is "losing so badly" and the deal "would not be acceptable."
US officials believe time is now on their side, with Fortune reporting the naval blockade is "crushing Iran's economy."
WTI crude fell about 8% this week to $92.41, while Brent fell more than 2% on Friday.
But flows are still well below the roughly 20 MILLION barrels a day before the war, and each barrel now costs an extra $30 to $40 to get out, analysts estimate.
Rumors that Trump rejected Iran’s seven conditions have pushed crude to $96.70, though nothing is confirmed yet.
For now, it looks like a pressure-testing phase, not a full showdown. Both sides are testing each other’s limits, suggesting prolonged uncertainty.
Trading: Don’t chase—focus on swing setups and expectation gaps.
#BTC #ETH #CL #Oil #Iran #Trump
#BTCETF2.8BInflowStreak #USLongTermYieldsRise #Hormuz7DayPlanRejected
🚨 Trump just rejected Iran's 7-day ceasefire proposal
And it landed while US markets were closed
He also told aides he expects bombing to resume after the midterms, and told Iran the naval blockade stays $BTC
Iran's offer would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and restarted nuclear talks in exchange for lifting the blockade of its ports
$ETH
In short, Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal means uncertainty around the conflict and the Strait of Hormuz remains high.
Markets reacted quickly, with oil prices rising more than 1%. Brent traded around $105.64, while WTI was near $93.11 during Asian trading today.
#HormuzTermsInFocus
🇺🇲 Every tanker through the Strait now needs drone cover, terrified crews and a 3,000 km military resupply chain just to move fuel.
Jeffrey Currie says the oil itself is almost secondary:
“There is 7 million barrels per day of production shut in. I mean, that's a huge number.”
The real problem is the cost of keeping the route open.
At some point, the math stops working.
@CommodMkt
Mario Nawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The oil market thinks this war is almost over. The physical market says otherwise...
Fmr. Goldman Sachs head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie joins me with a stark assessment:
Yes, more oil is coming out of Hormuz than expected, but the real crisis is in the entire downstream chain from refining to distribution, and it's in "dire condition"
The Brent futures contract around $100 is what Currie calls a "vibe contract," set by Washington to manage sentiment, while physical Brent trades at $125-130.
7M barrels/day remain shut in, France has fuel shortages compounded by the Rhine being too low for barges, Europe failed to refill gas storage ahead of winter, the Panama Canal cannot move LNG, and the Russian grain corridor is GONE.
"Natural gas explodes this winter. Diesel is already at record levels. We are heading into VERY severe global shortages."
Futures markets are supposed to signal problems so behavior changes, but when those markets are manipulated to project calm, nobody invests, nobody prepares, and the car drives straight off the cliff.
The only question is what happens after the midterms, when the incentive to hold it all together is gone...
Thanks for joining me, @CommodMkt
🚨 BREAKING: President Trump just officially rejected Iran’s 7-day ceasefire proposal!
Iran is LOSING, panicked, and begging to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—now known as the Trump Strait.
The blockade is working, the US Military is in total control, and Iran’s economy is collapsing. NO CONCESSIONS! 🔥🇺🇸
Lately, I've been a bit off in my market focus. I used to keep my eyes on $BTC all the time, but today I actually think $CL crude oil is more worth watching.
There's an interesting development on the US-Iran front: Iran has proposed that if the US reduces military pressure and lifts the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within 7 days; the market has already started pricing in this expectation. $WTI has fallen from nearly $96 a few days ago down to around $92 on Friday.