
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
About FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
After its first 25bp hike in over three years, the Fed may not be done. CME puts the odds of another 25bp move in October at 55.4%, while the dot plot shows most officials expect at least one more hike this year. Energy, tariffs and AI infrastructure spending are keeping inflation hot, but growth, jobs and earnings remain resilient. With the 10-year yield above 5% and 30-year mortgage rates at 6.95%, are stocks and BTC truly absorbing higher rates, or betting this was a one-off?
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Análise do Morgan Stanley sobre o aumento das taxas: haverá mais aumentos das taxas?
TL;DR
O aumento da taxa de juros pelo Fed em setembro em 25 pontos base estava dentro do esperado, mas a Morgan Stanley acredita que esta ação não deve ser entendida simplesmente como um ajuste pontual da política.
Segundo a lógica decisória do Fed, uma vez que termine a longa pausa e retome os aumentos, o comité normalmente considera uma série de ações, em vez de pensar que 25 pontos base são suficientes para alterar a perspetiva macroeconómica.
No entanto, grande parte da inflação

The Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike, yet $BTC and $ETH showed limited downside.
➤ $BTC sits near $75.8K after testing $75.3K. $75K remains the key support, while $77.5K is the level bulls need to reclaim.
➤ $ETH trades around $2.38K, stuck between $2.37K and $2.43K. $2.35K is support, with $2.45K overhead.
For now, the market looks cautious, not panicked.
#NvidiaChipDoubleOutlook #FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve

Everyone expected a rate hike to hurt risk assets.
But the opposite happened.
US stocks had their best day in six weeks, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.93%.
That tells us something:
Markets don’t only react to the rate decision.
They react to what the decision says about future inflation and Fed credibility.
For BTC, watch inflation expectations and long-term yields—not just the headline rate.
Is the market starting to trust the Fed again?

$BTC x $ETH post-Fed 📊
Fed delivered a 25bps hike, unanimous, with Warsh sounding hawkish. The move was largely priced in—no major dump, but no breakout either.
$BTC ~ $75.8K, wick to $75.3K. $75K is key support; lose it and $73K comes into focus. Bulls need $77.5K back.
$ETH ~ $2.38K, holding $2.37K–$2.43K. $2.45K resistance, $2.35K floor.#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules

$BTC x $ETH post-Fed 📊
Fed delivered a 25bps hike, unanimous, with Warsh sounding hawkish. The move was largely priced in—no major dump, but no breakout either.
$BTC ~ $75.8K, wick to $75.3K. $75K is key support; lose it and $73K comes into focus. Bulls need $77.5K back.
$ETH ~ $2.38K, holding $2.37K–$2.43K. $2.45K resistance, $2.35K floor.
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules
ZEC has clearly entered an independent market phase in this wave.
🔥【ZEC Market Flash On one side, ZCSH ($ZEC Spot ETF) AUM has surpassed $700 million, with spot capital attention continuously increasing; on the other side, $ZEC derivatives OI is rapidly growing, indicating market leverage is also concentrating. The current $ZEC situation can be summarized as: ETF spot demand 🟢 + high leverage 🔥 = high volatility market Next, focus on 3 key signals: ① Whether ZCSH holdings continue to increase ② Whether $ZEC can hold at high levels ③ Whether OI experiences a
The real pressure on $BTC may be coming from U.S. Treasuries, not bears.
With the 10Y yield above 4.8% and a divided Fed, the macro backdrop remains challenging.
When risk-free yields approach 5%, Bitcoin needs a stronger narrative to compete for capital.
$ETH $SOL
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules
Why crypto is pumping
The hike was already priced in, so the sell-off happened ahead of the print.
Shorts got squeezed, oil cooled off, and altcoins led the move — especially ZEC, HYPE, and DeFi.
This doesn’t look like fresh liquidity entering the market. Rates actually moved higher, while ETFs are still seeing outflows.
$80K BTC remains the key level.
For now, this looks more like a relief rally than a regime change.
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules
🔥 FED HIKE, BUT CRYPTO STAYS STEADY
The Fed raised rates by 25bps, but $BTC and $ETH avoided a major selloff.
➤ $BTC is around $75.8K after dipping to $75.3K. $75K remains key support, while bulls need to reclaim $77.5K.
➤ $ETH trades near $2.38K, holding the $2.37K–$2.43K range. $2.35K is support, with $2.45K as the next resistance.
For now, the market looks cautious rather than panicked. 📊
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #OKX1MillionStrategist
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% One hike was easy to price. A second is where things get interesting 👀
The Fed just raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, while inflation remains elevated and economic activity is still described as solid. The latest projections also put the median year-end policy rate at 4.1%, keeping further tightening firmly in the conversation.
What caught my attention is how well risk assets have absorbed the higher-rate narrative so far.
If stocks and BTC can keep attracting capital while borrowing costs stay restrictive, that signals real resilience. But if valuations are quietly built around the assumption that September was a one-off, another hike could expose just how much optimism is already priced in.
The next test isn't whether markets can survive high rates. It's whether they can survive rates staying high for longer than expected.
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% The Fed just hiked 25bp for the first time in over three years — and markets are already pricing another one in October at 55.4% 📈
The dot plot isn't subtle: most officials expect at least one more hike this year. This wasn't a one-and-done 👀
The inflation drivers keeping them hawkish: energy (Brent near $108), tariffs, and AI infrastructure spending that's injecting massive capex into the economy. All three persistent, none easy to solve with rate hikes alone 🫠
But here's the tension — growth, jobs, and earnings are all still resilient. The economy is absorbing higher rates better than most expected. Which raises the question: are stocks and BTC pricing in "one hike then pause," or genuinely comfortable with a prolonged higher-rate environment? 🤔
10-year yield above 5%. 30-year mortgage at 6.95%. These aren't small numbers 📉
First hike in three years, October odds already at 55% — is the market right to shrug this off, or is the real pain still ahead? 👇
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points this week & $BTC barely flinched.
Bitcoin traded around $76K after the decision, while ETH and several major altcoins also recovered as broader risk markets strengthened.
That doesn't mean the market is suddenly risk-free.
It just reminds me that price reactions aren't always as simple as: Bad news = Bitcoin dumps
Sometimes the market has already priced the news in.
Sometimes the bigger story is how price reacts after the event.
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55%

