#CPIToResetFedBets

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About CPIToResetFedBets

July U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000, with May-June revised down by 103,000, cutting September hike bets. Polymarket puts hold odds at ~63%, Kalshi ~65%, while CME FedWatch shows ~55.6% for no hike and ~44.4% for a 25 bp hike. Wednesday's July CPI is the next test: headline inflation is forecast to ease from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY and core from 2.6% to 2.5%, though core services may stay sticky. For crypto, will CPI confirm cooling inflation or revive September hike pricing?

CPIToResetFedBets Postări populare

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OKX 结构化产品导航站
OKX 结构化产品导航站
Trei oficiali ai Fed susțin majorarea dobânzii, numărul locurilor de muncă non-agricole din SUA a scăzut cu 23.000 în iulie, semnalele privind ocuparea forței de muncă și ratele dobânzilor în SUA sunt divergente: Observații asupra țintelor și prețurilor țintă pentru activele cu dublă monedă TradFi
⚖️ 美国经济现在同时出现两种信号:通胀仍让部分美联储官员保持谨慎,就业增长却几乎停了下来。 这组矛盾不会直接告诉市场涨跌,却会影响利率、企业盈利和风险预期。对 XQQQ、XNVDA、XSOXL、XAUT 等 TradFi 标的来说,影响路径也不一样。 📉 事实一:新增就业转负,但失业率没有明显上升 美国7月非农就业减少 2.3 万人,失业率为 4.1%。5 月新增就业从 12.9 万人下修至 6.3 万人,6 月从 5.7 万人下修至 2 万人,两个月合计少于此前估计 10.3 万人。 这说明,最近几个月的就业增长比最初公布的数字更弱。 但“新增就业减少”和“失业率稳定”并不矛盾:非农就业主要调查企业增加或减少了多少岗位,失业率则来自居民调查,而且会受到劳动参与率影响。7 月劳动参与率为 61.4%,较 1 月下降 0.7个百分点。 因此,4.1% 的失业率不能单独证明就业市场仍然强劲;-2.3 万的非农也不能单独证明大规模失业已经发生。 🧭 事实二:企业减少招聘,但暂未集中裁员 截至 8月1日 当周,美国首次申请失业救济人数为 19.9 万人,去年同期为 22.6 万人。6 月
(浩泽)
(浩泽)
The next big crypto move may not come from a new narrative—it could come from one inflation number. 👀 The crypto market is at a pretty important crossroads right now. $BTC is struggling around $64K, and with the next U.S. CPI report approaching, traders are watching inflation closely. A hotter-than-expected number could push Treasury yields higher, reduce hopes for easier Fed policy, and keep investors defensive. But I’m not ready to call this market bearish yet. Wall Street is still holding up. AI continues to drive major interest in tech, while crypto infrastructure keeps expanding into areas that were once dominated almost entirely by traditional finance. Solana is a good example. Stablecoins, RWA, and on-chain applications are continuing to grow, strengthening the case for scalable blockchain infrastructure. For me, the current watchlist breaks down into three groups: 🔵 Core leaders: $BTC$ETH$SOL$BNB$XRP 🟢 Infrastructure & tokenization: $LINK$ONDO$AAVE$HYPE 🟠 Higher-growth opportunities: $SUI$TAO$PENDLE$ENA$SEI$KAITO These aren't random names. They sit around some of the biggest themes in crypto: AI, RWA, stablecoins, DeFi, derivatives, and scalable blockchain infrastructure. Then you have the high-beta names: $DOGE$PEPE$BONK$WIF$SHIB If risk appetite suddenly returns, these can move incredibly fast. But the same leverage that makes them exciting can also make the downside brutal if macro conditions turn against crypto. So right now, I’m watching one chain very closely: CPI → Treasury yields → Fed expectations → Wall Street → Crypto. A softer inflation print could bring risk appetite back and trigger a broader crypto rotation. A hotter number? We could see more caution, more consolidation, and possibly another shakeout. And honestly, I think the biggest mistake right now is asking: “Which token will pump?” The better question is: “Which projects already have the strongest catalysts if the market suddenly turns bullish?” 🎯 #DailyOrbit
Novacryptogirl
Novacryptogirl
#CPIToResetFedBets 📊 #CPIToResetFedBets The next CPI report could become a major catalyst for markets as investors reassess expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next moves. A softer-than-expected inflation reading could strengthen hopes for a more dovish Fed, potentially supporting risk assets such as Bitcoin, crypto, technology stocks, and equities. On the other hand, a hotter CPI print could push rate-cut expectations further out, putting pressure on markets as Treasury yields and the dollar potentially move higher. The key signals to watch are headline CPI, core CPI, month-over-month inflation, and the trend in shelter and services prices. For traders, this is more than just an inflation report—it could reset Fed rate expectations and change market positioning quickly. Volatility may rise sharply around the release, so risk management will be crucial. 🚨 #CPI #FederalReserve #Fed #Inflation #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #InterestRates #Trading
Muhammad_Ahmad√
Muhammad_Ahmad√
#CPIToResetFedBets # CPI to Reset Fed Bets: Inflation Data Back in Focus The **#CPIToResetFedBets** narrative centers on how the next U.S. inflation reading could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy. CPI remains one of the most closely watched macro indicators because changes in inflation can influence Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, equities, and crypto markets. A softer-than-expected CPI reading could strengthen expectations for monetary easing. Lower inflation may give the Federal Reserve more flexibility to reduce rates if other economic indicators, particularly the labor market, show signs of weakness. Such a scenario could potentially support risk assets including **$BTC**, **$ETH**, and technology stocks. A hotter CPI print could produce the opposite reaction. Persistent inflation may encourage markets to price fewer or later rate cuts, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher while putting pressure on higher-risk assets. The key issue is not simply whether inflation rises or falls, but **how the data compares with market expectations**. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, can be particularly important when investors assess underlying inflation trends. Traders should also watch employment data, wage growth, producer prices, Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve commentary rather than relying on one CPI report. Ultimately, **#CPIToResetFedBets** represents a potential catalyst for markets because inflation data can quickly change expectations around the future path of interest rates. **$BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ $GLD** **#CPIToResetFedBets #CPI #FederalReserve #Inflation #Crypto**
Mr. Fareed Ahmad 📊
Mr. Fareed Ahmad 📊
"Bitcoin is approaching a macro decision point." BTC has slipped below $64K as traders reduce risk ahead of the upcoming U.S. inflation data. But here's what I'm watching: Price alone isn't enough. I want to see how BTC reacts to the CPI number. 📈 Lower-than-expected inflation + falling yields could support risk assets. 📉 Hotter-than-expected inflation + rising yields could put pressure on BTC. The interesting trade may not be predicting CPI. It may be watching BTC's reaction after the data. Do you think BTC reacts more to CPI itself or the Fed-rate expectations that follow? #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CPI $BTC #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges
Zentrova
Zentrova
🔑 CPI HOLDS THE KEY Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim $65K failed to hold, sending $BTC back toward $64K, while $ETH slipped below $1,900. With traders cutting risk ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, the next major move may depend less on chart levels and more on how the inflation data changes expectations for the Federal Reserve. But one divergence stands out: 🏦 INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND IS STILL THERE Spot $BTC ETFs recorded roughly $853.5M in net inflows, while spot $ETH ETFs attracted around $244.9M between Aug. 3–7. Despite that steady institutional demand, prices remain under pressure. The message is clear: ETF inflows are helping provide a floor, but they haven't yet been strong enough to absorb available supply and trigger a decisive breakout. 🇺🇸 Now, all eyes turn to CPI. A hotter-than-expected reading could pressure risk assets, while softer inflation may strengthen the case for easier Fed policy. CPI could determine what comes next. #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges
Asif-X
Asif-X
$BEAT — One wrong step can lead to another… hehe 😜 Both $BEAT and $BICO have been taken, and I’m honestly very happy with the results. 🥳🔥 The market has been brutal to altcoins, with many projects looking beaten down and forgotten. But sometimes, that’s exactly where traders start looking for opportunities. 👀 🇺🇸 Wednesday’s CPI could be the next major catalyst. The big question: Will the CPI print rewrite September rate-cut expectations? A softer number could revive risk appetite and give beaten-down alts some breathing room. A hotter print could bring more pressure and keep liquidity tight. For now, I’m watching the data, the reaction, and where capital starts rotating next. Fallen alts aren’t necessarily dead — but timing and risk management matter. 😜 $BEAT $BICO #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets
Hayko7
Hayko7
⚡ Tomorrow's CPI print (Aug 12) could reset the Fed's entire trajectory** July's CPI data drops tomorrow, August 12, at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus forecast: ≈+0.2% MoM core, headline YoY ≈2.9%. The next FOMC decision lands September 16. **Why this is critical for crypto:** CPI directly moves rate-cut odds, historically one of the strongest macro drivers for BTC and risk assets broadly. A hot print (above forecast) would reinforce a "higher-for-longer" narrative and pressure risk assets. A cool print would work in favor of rate-cut probability. **Context:** BTC is already coiled between $64K-$66K, sandwiched between key EMA levels. A macro surprise in either direction could be exactly the catalyst that breaks the range. **My take:** Not trying to predict the print itself, but this is genuinely worth watching tomorrow — especially if you're holding leveraged positions in BTC/ETH. 💬 How are you positioned heading into CPI — hedging, or waiting for the data? #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges $BTC
Felix.Crypto
Felix.Crypto
THE MARKET IS FULL OF BULLISH NEWS—SO WHY IS MONEY STILL STAYING ON THE SIDELINES? At first glance, this should be a bullish environment for crypto. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue attracting strong institutional inflows. Expectations for future Fed easing remain alive. Financial institutions are expanding their crypto offerings, while regulators continue improving the industry's framework. Yet prices remain sluggish, and liquidity remains weak. The issue isn't a lack of positive news—it's a lack of confidence and fresh capital. The biggest catalyst investors are waiting for is the upcoming U.S. CPI report. Inflation data could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move, so institutions prefer staying cautious before deploying new capital. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty between the United States and Iran remains a major risk. Unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue supporting higher oil prices, increasing fears that inflation could stay elevated and keep Fed policy restrictive. As a result, many funds are maintaining defensive positions instead of adding exposure to crypto. Much of the bullish news has already been priced in. Strong ETF inflows are largely being absorbed by profit-taking, leaving prices trapped in a narrow range. Spot trading volumes also remain subdued, while many retail investors are waiting for a deeper pullback instead of chasing higher prices. The market continues consolidating despite positive headlines. The encouraging sign is that smart money hasn't left. Institutions continue accumulating through ETFs, but gradually rather than aggressively. If CPI comes in below expectations, U.S.–Iran tensions ease, and the Fed turns more dovish, sidelined capital could return quickly. If you found this analysis valuable, follow me for timely updates, in-depth insights, and professional commentary on the latest developments across both the crypto market and Wall Street. #CPIToResetFedBets #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #HormuzDealStillPending $BTC $ETH
Aqsanaz90
Aqsanaz90
🚨 TOMORROW COULD BE MORE IMPORTANT THAN TODAY FOR CRYPTO. 👀 Altseason watch is getting interesting. The market is heading into a major macro catalyst: U.S. CPI. And traders are already positioning before the number even drops. $BTC is holding around $65K, while combined $BTC and $ETH ETF flows have pulled in roughly $1.1B over the past week. 💰 That’s the part I’m watching closely. Capital is moving into crypto before a broader altcoin rotation has even started. If CPI comes in softer than expected → 📉 yields could ease → 💧 liquidity could improve → 🚀 risk appetite could expand. But if inflation surprises higher, expect volatility. Either way, tomorrow could give us a much clearer signal about where the next major move is coming from. Don’t chase the altseason narrative yet. Watch the liquidity first. 👀 #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #Nvidia500BAIInfra #AIInfraFundingDiverges $BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit
Alexa Hardy
Alexa Hardy
🚨 $BTC IS STUCK AROUND $64.3K — AND TOMORROW’S CPI COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING. 👀 Bitcoin is hovering around $64,300 as the market braces for the upcoming US CPI release. Right now, traders are clearly playing it safe. Why? Because this CPI print could help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision, and even a small surprise could trigger a sharp move across both crypto and traditional markets. The market is already split. 🐂 Bulls are watching for softer inflation. 🐻 Bears are preparing for a hotter-than-expected number. And with $BTC sitting around $64.3K, there isn’t much room for complacency. One CPI number could be enough to wake the market up. ⚡ Until the data drops, watching price action matters more than making emotional bets. Stay patient. Stay alert. And avoid making abrupt moves before the release. Tomorrow could get volatile. 👀 #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges