#LongYields5%NewNormal
About LongYields5%NewNormal
Long-end Treasury yields held after the Fed's Sept 16 25bps hike. The 10-year dipped to around 4.95% then returned to near 5%, the 2-year to around 4.73%, the 30-year above 5%. Walsh attributed the long-end to stronger growth, AI-driven capex, and geopolitics, but did not address fiscal deficits. If the 2-year stabilizes while the 10-year and 30-year hold above 5%, long-end pricing may reflect structural capital demand, inflation risk, and term premium, lifting the floor for high-beta assets.
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-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%
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The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the 5% threshold, reaching a recent high. The risk-free yield has risen, putting pressure on BTC simultaneously, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
币圈阿飞-OKB
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
Последние данные
Доходность 10-летних американских облигаций превысила отметку 5%, достигнув недавнего максимума, безрисковая доходность растет, BTC испытывает давление, средства из спотовых ETF продолжают выводиться.
Общее мнение рынка
Медвежьи настроения считают, что привлекательность доходности американских облигаций растет, и средства будут уходить из рискованных активов, таких как криптовалюта; другие полагают, что это связано с чрезмерным выпуском госдолга США, что кратковременно повышает ставки, и не обязательно сохранится на высоком уровне.
Анализ базовой логики
Американские облигации — якорь для глобального ценообразования активов, при доходности выше 5% альтернативная стоимость владения BTC возрастает. Средства предпочтут более надежные облигации США, риск-аппетит снижается, крипторынок под давлением, дальнейшее внимание сосредоточено на заявлениях FOMC.
Личное мнение (только личное мнение, не является инвестиционной рекомендацией) #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$BTC $ZEC $XAU
92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike.
The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets.
For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
$BTC is hovering around the $76,000 level.
US stock futures are up ahead of today's FOMC meeting, while oil is down.
Pre-market stock trading insights:
▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.54%
▫️S&P futures is up 0.34%#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
the more critical time period tonight.
The market's core focus right now is still the FOMC; the expectation of a 25bp rate hike is already very high, close to 90%, so the simple fact of a "rate hike" has been largely priced in. What will truly determine the future direction of $BTC and $ETH is how hawkish Powell will be and whether further rate hikes will continue.
BTC is currently still weak, and ETH jointly suppr#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
TODAY: The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points today, a move that would mark its first increase since 2023.
$BTC
In the past decade, Bitcoin told its story through the "halving cycle."\n\nIn the next decade, Bitcoin will tell its story through the "fiat credit collapse."\n\nAnd today,\n\nThe US 10-year Treasury yield has broken 5%, the last time was in 2007.\n\nThe Japanese 10-year government bond yield has broken 3%, the last time was in 1996.\n\nThe US and Japanese bond markets are handing the script directly to $BTC.\n\nThe question is: can you endure the darkest moment before dawn?
🚨 THE MARKET IS HUNTING LEVERAGE AGAIN
Yesterday’s sell-off wiped out hundreds of millions in crypto longs.
BTC fell toward the $75K area, while ETH dropped toward $2,400.
And now comes the bigger test:
With the U.S. 10Y yield recently moving above 5%, risk assets are facing a much tougher macro environment.
❌ No FOMO
❌ No revenge trades
❌ No oversized leverage
✅ Wait for BTC confirmation
✅ Keep dry powder
✅ Let the market show its hand first
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #Trading #OKX
#DailyOrbit
#LongYields5%NewNormal Long-term Treasury yields held near 5% even after the Fed’s September 16 rate hike. The 10-year yield dipped toward 4.95% before returning close to 5%, while the 30-year yield stayed above 5%. Chair Walsh attributed long-end pressure to stronger growth, AI-related capital expenditure and geopolitical risk, but did not directly address fiscal deficits.
If the 2-year yield stabilizes near 4.73% while the 10-year and 30-year remain elevated, the market may be pricing a structural increase in capital demand, inflation risk and term premium. That could establish a higher floor for borrowing costs and create continuing pressure on high-beta assets. Technology companies, private AI firms and crypto markets will need stronger cash-flow growth to offset the higher discount rate.
